Review of the post Christmas period - Dec 26th-29th

 Covering 4 consecutive days of racing over the festive period, is always a big ask. 

The only other time I cover 4 consecutive days, is at the Cheltenham festival.
However, that's a lot easier - because the shape of most of the races in known well in advance - and there’s only one lot of ground, to worry about !

With the weather changing on a daily basis - and 5 meetings to consider - the post Christmas period is much more of a challenge !


Saturday

Things got underway on Boxing day/St Stephens day - and whilst the quality of the action couldn’t be faulted, finding bets wasn’t easy.

I ended up with just a couple of Best bets on the day - but neither managed to trouble the judge…

Spiritofthegames was the first one to run - in the Roland Meyrick at Wetherby.
I expected him to run really well - though wasn’t completely sure he’d have the stamina to last home.

As it happened, we didn’t find out whether his stamina was an issue, as he put in a below par effort and was beaten shortly after entering the home straight.

Maybe the ground was the problem - or maybe he is simply a better horse at Cheltenham.
He’ll likely get a pound or two off his rating - and I’m sure connections will be back at Cheltenham for his next run, hoping for a return to form…

Lostintranslation was the other Best bet on the day - but he ran equally disappointingly…
He was given a relatively prominent ride by Robbie Power - and seemed to be going nicely at half way.

However, in a few strides, he was under pressure - and then beaten…

It transpired after the race, that he had burst a blood vessel - which at least explains the run - even if it is of limited consolation !

I also, covered both Cyrname and Real Steal in the Matrix - but like Lostintranslation, they didn’t manage to complete the course.

If Carlsberg did crap races…!

The only other bets on the day, were a couple for the Matrix, in the novice handicap chase.
However, neither William H Bonney nor Galahad Quest were any match for the much improved Killer Clown…

In terms of ones that got away, then I could possibly have sided with Silver Streak to beat Epatante, from a pure ‘value’ perspective; whilst I would have nominated Shan Blue as the most likely winner of the novice chase - though the price was never there.

That said, the most irritating result of the day was at Wincanton.
I nominated Jacamar as the solid option in the Pertemps qualifier - but I thought that he was was vulnerable to an improver.
There looked to be lots of potential improvers in the race - but non of them materialised and Jacamar came home in front.
Maybe a lesson to learn…


Sunday

Sunday should have been the busiest day of the post Christmas period - so it was a bit annoying that the final declarations weren’t released until Saturday morning (by which time, I was embroiled in the Boxing day action).
I was hoping/expecting that they would be released before Christmas, which would have given me chance to get ahead on things…

More than that, ‘Storm Bella’ then struck on Saturday night - and washed away Chepstow.
When you are struggling for time, studying cards that are subsequently abandoned, is not what you want to be doing !

I did still think I’d found 3 Best bets for the day - but the late defection of Erick le Rouge at Kempton, meant that only 2 of them went to post.

The first was Ten Ten, in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown.
I had him down as a good ‘value’ call in an ultra competitive race - so it was a bit of a shock to see him backed in to 13/2 joint second fav !

Generally you need a bit of luck in those kind of races - or you need an inspired ride.
Castlebawn West got the latter from Paul Townend, who made all on a hitherto suspect jumper.

I didn’t think he had much in hand of his mark - and maybe he didn’t.
However, when you jump from fence to fence, at a pace that suits, you are always going to be hard to beat.

By contrast, Ten Ten missed the kick: got stuck on the inside - and didn’t have enough in hand to ever get himself in a challenging position.
I’ve no doubt that he could have done better…

Torigni ended up the only other Best bet on the day, in the finale at Kempton.
I was happy to narrow the field down to 4 - and felt he was the solid one at a decent price (a bit like Jacamar, on Saturday !).

He ran a good race as well - but ultimately was no match for the unexposed Cadzand.
There’s not a lot you can do about those kind of results - I knew it was a possibility before hand, so can have no complaints.

In addition to the Best bets, I used the Matrix to take on a couple of the ‘Big guns’ at Kempton.

I hoped Shishkin might succumb to the pressure exerted by Gumball; whilst I also thought that Altior was vulnerable on his first run of the season.

Unfortunately, I got the first one wrong - and Shishkin looked like a monster, as he tracked Gumball and then brushed him aside.
I won’t be opposing him again in a hurry !

I did read the Altior situation correctly - but I chose the wrong horse to oppose him with.
In fairness, Duc de Genevries ran well - and you would have needed some crystal ball to find the winner, Nube Negra.

The final Matrix bet on the day, was a speculative play on Thedevilscoachman at Leopardstown.
He ran a fair race, without ever looking likely to win.
If his sights are lowered a little - he should be able to score again…

In terms of ones that got away - then there weren’t really any !
If I had issued any more bets, then in all probability, the losses would just have been greater…


Monday

With time seemingly closing in on me from all sides, I decided to opt out of issuing any bets on Monday.

I was struggling to find anything that I could commit fully to - and issuing a few token Matrix bets, would have eaten into valuable study time for Tuesday…

As it turned out (and as Mr Sod would doubtless have predicted !), it wasn’t the best path…

The winner of both of the big races in Ireland, featured on my ‘short lists’ for the respective races.

Flooring Porter wouldn’t have been my main fancy for the staying hurdle - but he would probably have been my second choice.
A Plus TArd on the other hand, probably would have been my first choice…

I stand by the decision to not make either Best bets - as I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly. However, if I had invested a few Matrix units on the 2 races, I think they would have returned modest profits…

If only after timing counted


Tuesday

The final day of a marathon stint - and once again, the weather decided to get involved.

Uncertainty regarding Newbury the evening before, became uncertainty regarding Doncaster on the day.

It does make it very hard to commit to anything in advance - as there is always the feeling that the markets knows that little bit more !

Ultimately I decided to go with just the one Best bet from the UK - along with one in Ireland, which I’d waited a couple of months to place !

The Irish one was on Coeur Sublime, who had been on my radar since his eye catching run in the Morgiana hurdle at Punchestown, in the middle of November.

I felt that he was likely to be a very good bet to reverse the form with the 2 horses who beat him that day: Abracadabras and Saint Roi.

My expectation was that there would be a very small field (approx 5) - and that a false pace might result.
That’s what happened in the Morgiana - and in a similar scenario, I reckon could have come out on top.

However, despite saddling the favourite, Saint Roi, Willie Mullins decide to attack the race mob handed (as he often does !).
Both Sharjah and Saldier appeared in the overnight decs - and I wasn’t expecting either…

I could see that they both had good chances - but I didn’t want to change my long held view on the race (and invite Mr Sod to do his worst !).
I did briefly consider splitting stakes between Coeur and Sharjah - but I was struggling to choose between the Mullins pair.

This is a situation where the Matrix works particularly well.
I was able to stick with my original intention - and cover both Sharjah and Saldier.

In the race itself, Aspire Tower set out to make all - but he was cut down, after jumping the last, by… Sharjah.

Coeur Sublime meanwhile, started in last position - and pretty much stayed there !

It was a frustrating outcome - even if it did result in a profit for the Matrix.

The other Best bet on the day, was Redford Road at Newbury.

I spent a lot of time looking at the race - and eventually came down in favour of him, ahead of my 2 other fancies in the race.

And to be fair, he ran really well - to a point.

That point was the third last fence.
That was when I expected the after burners to kick in - but instead, the petrol gauge started to flicker…
I hoped stamina would be his forte - but instead it was his Achilles heal.

Worse still, neither of the Matrix bets were able to save the day.
A bit like Redford Road, Champagne Court seemed to run out of stamina; whilst it didn’t look soft enough for Django Django to show his form…

In the days other races:
Then whilst I might have suggested Dickie Diver in slightly different circumstances, if I had it would have been another loser.
He ran a massively eye catching race - but was no match for an enterprisingly ridden winner, who didn’t put a foot wrong.

Annie Mc was the only other potential bet on the day - but her price had been shot to bits, by the time I was able to tip.
5/1 last night had become 5/2 - and in truth, I would have been more likely to put a ‘value’ alternative, if I had got involved with the race.
Ofcourse, significant support rarely stops a horse from winning - and it certainly didn’t stop her.
She bolted up by 16 lengths - and will probably get a bit of a ratings rise as a result.

And breath...

TVB

Dec 29th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Newbury

2:40
Redford Road 5 units win 8/1
Django Django 3 units win 9/1
Champagne Court 2 units win 12/1

Leopardstown

2:25
Coeur Sublime 5 units win 25/1
Sharjah 3 units win 7/1
Saldier 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Newbury

2:40
Redford Road 0.5pt win 8/1

Leopardstown

2:25
Coeur Sublime 0.5pt win 25/1

  

The weather is making it very hard to get a handle on things at the moment...

Last night, the suggestion was that todays meeting at Newbury was in jeopardy - but there appeared to be no issues at either Doncaster or Kelso.

Roll on just 12 hours and Newbury is fine - but Doncaster and Kelso both need to pass inspections due to snow !

As I’ve said before, the issue is not only that you are guessing on ground conditions, but there is also uncertainty over runners, which can affect the way a race works out.

All this said, the main bet of the day was always going to be in Ireland - a horse who I’ve had on my radar for a couple of months now - just waiting for today !
I’ve backed him up with a bet in the big race at Newbury - but drawn the line there.


Newbury

I would quite like to have gone with Dickie Diver in the 1:30 - but I can’t…
There are a few reasons for this - some obvious and some more subtle !
The obvious ones are that he is making his seasonal debut - and not all of Nicky Hendersons horses are running as they should (he has a bit of a bug in the yard).
The more subtle one is that if we’d crashed the price on a JP horse, early in the morning, we might have sealed our own fate !
Better we wait until nearer the off - and then take a risk.
I’ll pass an opinion on his chances in todays Live thread (which I will be running !)

The 2:05 race has fallen apart - with 2 key non runners.
It now looks like it should be a match between Clava D’Auge and The Cob.
I’d have a slight preference for the former - but in a 5 horse race, there’s always the chance that tactics will win the day (and we’ve no idea on how they will pan out).

I have to be honest, I turned the 2:40 race round and round in my head…
I started by favouring Champagne Court - but I am worried that he won’t see out the 3m2f trip.
I then switched to Django Dajango (with Jonjo on board !) - but the worry with his is that he may be best on heavy ground (and I don’t expect Newbury to be heavy).
I therefore ended up on Redford Road.
I can see him improving massively for the step up in trip (his sole win under rules, was over 3 miles) - and I suspect he has been campaigned at a shorter trip, in order to acquire a more attractive handicap mark.
As a consequence, he is the main bet in the race - though I want to save on the other 2, for the Matrix.

I can’t see an angle into the 3:15 race.
Wilde About Oscar holds some appeal - but not sufficient to suggest him as a bet.
I’ll look at the race again, nearer the off (by which time, there may have been some market moves)

Doncaster

I was hoping to suggest Annie Mc in the mares chase (1:45) - but at 5/2, someone is having a laugh ! (particularly as Jonjo is at Newbury !).
I honestly thought she would be double that price (and then would have been worthy of support).
With her so strong in the betting, there should be value elsewhere.
I could see My Old Gold drifting to an acceptable price; whilst Chilli Filli is the other one of interest (in fact at 8/1, I would have put her up as a bet).
I’m assuming the ground has gone against Casablanca Mix - though if it has, there is always a chance she will be withdrawn (which will result in a big R4)…

Leopardstown

I was always going to struggle to get involved with the mares race (1:15) because Willie Mullins holds all the aces.
Concertista will probably win - even though she is easy enough to oppose, based purely on the form book.
Minella Melody is of some interest - though probably not sufficient to warrant a bet.

Monkfish should win the 1:50 - but it wouldn’t hugely surprise me if Latest Exhibition beat him.
I struggle to see any of the other 4 winning - unless there is carnage in the race.
For those of you who are following them, I plan to put up an ante post bet in the forum, for the RSA - before this race is run.
Suffice to say, it will look a whole lot better post race, if Monkfish is beaten !

I have long eyed up the Matheson hurdle (2:25) for the big bet of the Christmas period !
As many of you will be aware, I was very keen on Coeur Sublime, following his run in the Morgiana.
I put him up ante-post for the Champion hurdle - but that was mainly because you couldn’t bet ante-post on todays race !
This is the one I really fancied him for - because Leopardstown is more of a speed track (which will suit him better).
The only issue is the ground - I would prefer it to be better than it is.
I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go very close - but that run from the last to the line, is definitely a worry.
If he is beaten, then I think it might be by one of the Willie Mullins lesser fancied runners.
Both Sharjah and Saldier have the form to win the race - so they are worth covering in the Matrix.
Hopefully however, they will do the decent thing and just follow home Coeur !

Dec 29th - Preview for Newbury, Doncaster & Leopardstown

 After all of the issues with the rain, over the past couple of days - I couldn’t believe it when I read that Newburys meeting tomorrow will need to survive an 8:00 inspection due to the threat of - frost ! 

It would appear that if one type of inclement weather doesn’t get you - then another one just might !

In fairness, frost doesn’t have quite the same effect on the going - though it can result in non runners, which often mess up the shape of races.

I guess no one said it was easy…

What is particularly disappointing, is that the card contains a number of races, which could result in bets (depending on prices etc.).

Certainly, there are more potential opportunities there, than at either Leopardstown or Doncaster.

As a consequence, I will plough on regardless, preview the races on the card that I intended - and keep my fingers crossed that it survives the inspection.

I’ll also preview a few from Doncaster/Leopardstown - so we have something to fall back on, just in case..!


Newbury

1:30

This looks like it could be a particularly hot novice handicap chase…
Demachine has been backed into early favouritism - which is what I expected.
He won a really strong novice handicap chase at Uttoxeter, on his seasonal debut - and then followed up, by scoring again at Ascot.
As a consequence of those 2 victories, his rating has risen by 18lb - but it’s impossible to say whether that will stop him from winning again.
In absolute terms, he looks a 140s horse - and that is what he is now rated.
Ground, course and distance should all be fine for him, so I would expect him to run a big race.
Severano is next in the market.
He too has won a couple of novice handicap chases this season - and whilst he has only risen 13lb in the ratings, he started from a higher point.
As a consequence, he has to run off a mark of 148 tomorrow - and that will be a tough ask.
He could be up to it - but if he is, he will need to be a borderline graded horse…
Earth Moor is another last time out winner.
That was in open company (which often is an easier route for novices) - and he has been raised 8lb for his comfortable victory.
As with Severano, that might be a bit too much…
Dickie Diver is the final one of major interest.
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - and will be making his chasing debut.
However, his last run was in the 2018 Albert Bartlett hurdle - and that was a very hot contest.
He finished 4th that day - beaten 11 lengths by Minella Indo. That one was sent off favourite for todays grade 1 Savills chase !
Just behind Dickie Diver in fifth, was Lisnagar Oscar. That one won last seasons stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival !!
There is no reason to think that the form line flatters Dickie Diver - so the question is whether he is fully tuned - and if can he jump a fence…
If the answers to both are positive, he will take a lot of beating off a mark of just 141…

2:05

The defection of Ch’tibello from this race, has taken away a possible angle - and it’s now hard to see beyond the top 3 in the betting…
Choosing between Calva D’Auge, Kateson and The Cob, isn’t easy - and it’s probably not worth spending a lot of time trying to do so, as the rewards on offer won’t be great.
I was impressed by Kateson last time at Aintree.
The race he won was better quality than tomorrows - and he’s only been raised 3lb.
The question is whether the cheek pieces he worse for the first time that day, will be as effective, second time.
If they are, he will probably win - but…
Calva D’Auge and The Cob are both stepping up in class, having been comfortable winners of lesser events, last time.
Again, neither have been savaged by the handicapper for their victories, so have reasonable chances of following up.
I wouldn’t really want to choose between the pair - particularly at the available prices…
It’s hard to make a case for the other 3 - but equally, it’s going to be hard to justify supporting one of the market leaders at the likely prices…

2:40

This is a really competitive class 3 chase - in which plenty of the runners can be given a chance.

Cuban Pete heads the market on the back of wins at Stratford and Hereford.
He was impressive at the latter venue - but has been raised 9lb for that win and this is a much stronger race.
He might be up to defying his new mark - but his early price of around 4/1, is too short..
I’m also not particularly keen on second favourite, Manofthemoutain.
Whilst, with hindsight, he had little chance last time against Frodon and Cloth Cap, I suspect people will read too much into that run.
The bottom line is that he isn’t particularly well handicapped - and would prefer decent ground.
Again, it’s not that he can’t win - just that 6/1 is too short a price…
It’s not as easy to dismiss third favourite, Amateur.
He has an impossible task on last time, up against Sojourn - and will be a threat to all tomorrow, with just 10st on his back.
Redford Road is also of interest.
He also faced an impossible task last time, up against Royal Pagaille at Haydock.
Tomorrow will only be his fourth run over fences - but based on his hurdle runs from last season, his current mark of 132 looks workable.
He should be well suited by 3 miles on soft ground - and it’s easy to see him running a big race.
Champagne Court is another one of interest - now that he’s back on his favoured soft ground.
He was sent off at just 6/1 for the class 1 Badger Ales chase on his penultimate start - but barely travelled a yard.
He ran much better last time, over tomorrows course - when fifth to Cap du Nord in a race which is working out well.
He’s been dropped 2lb for that run - and the softer ground will be a big help.
The worry is the trip - as he’s unproven over 3 miles+.
That said, it wasn’t a lack of stamina that caused his defeat last time, and if he does stay the trip, he should go very close.
Django Django is of interest, based on his win over tomorrows course, in January.
He was very impressive that day - and it’s a little surprising that he’s not gone of from that.
He was certainly backed to do so on his most recent run at Bangor - but ran no kind of a race.
It’s interesting to see that Jonjo O’Neill jnr is on board tomorrow, when he could have gone to Doncaster to ride Annie Mc. A subtle hint, maybe…
Get on the Yaegar and Kings Monarch are two more of potential interest, in a race which really isn’t easy to solve…

3:15

Even though there are only 6 runners, this looks a strong edition of the Challow hurdle…

Bravemansgame and Star Gate are disputing favouritism - and both appear to be high class novice hurdlers.
Certainly, Bravemansgame was impressive when winning a good class novice race at the course, last month; whilst Star Gate was an equally easy winner of the grade 2 Winter novice hurdle at Sandown earlier this month.
The have recorded very similar numbers - so it’s really a question of paying your money and making your choice.
My choice is probably Star Gate.
That said, this isn’t a 2 horse race…
The Glancing Queen is a fascinating contender.
Having consistently shown top class form in bumpers, she successfully made the transition to hurdles last month, when winning at Warwick,
The form of that race doesn’t compare to the form of the market leaders. However, she can be expected to improve for the experience - and the 7lb sex allowance she receives from all of her rivals, could be crucial.
Does he Know probably sets the standard for the race, based on 2 gutsy wins at Cheltenham. That said, it’s a standard which I would expect to be exceeded.
Wilde about Oscar isn’t easy to assess, after facile wins in 2 modest novice hurdles.
However, the very fact that fact Dan Skelton runs him in the race, means his chance has to be respected.

Doncaster

1:45

The high-light of the Doncaster card, is this listed mares chase.
It’s attracted a good quality field - and the state of the ground is likely to be the key factor in how the race works out…

Early favourite, Casablanca Mix, wants decent ground - so if it’s riding soft, she could be in trouble.
On officail ratings, she is the best horse in the field - but it’s not by much, so if conditions go against her, she can probably be opposed.
My Old Gold is only rated 2lb inferior to Casablanca Mix - and she will have no issue with soft ground.
In fact, over 2m4f she probably needs it soft - as otherwise, she may not be quick enough.
She did well to beat Chilli Filli over the trip at Carlisle last time - and the soft ground almost certainly helped her that day.
She also beat Cloth Cap at Doncaster, on soft ground - though that was over 3 miles !
Suffice to say, the wetter it is, the better her chance…
Chilli Filli provides a nice link between Casablanca Mix and My Old Gold; having beaten the former on her seasonal debut, before losing out to the latter, on her second run of the season.
She seems indifferent to the state of the ground - and is weighted to run both horses close.
Annie Mc is the final one of major interest.
She caught my eye last time, when staying on for fifth place behind Chatham Street Lad at Cheltenham.
That was a good effort in a very competitive handicap - and suggested she was re-finding her excellent novice form of last season.
My big issue with her, is that Jonjo O’Neil is not in the saddle.
He’s ridden her in all of her recent races - but has chosen to go to Newbury instead.
That’s either a negative for Annie Mc - or a big positive for Django Django !!

Leopardstown

3 graded events provide the features on the final day at Leopardstown - with the Matheson (2:25) hurdle a fitting climax to the meeting.

1:15

The grade 3 mares hurdle is the first graded action on the card - and it appears to be at the mercy of Concertista.
She was a massively impressive winner of the mares hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and was just as impressive, when making a wining seasonal return in a grade 2 event at Fairyhouse.
She barely came off the bridle to beat Minella Melody, that day - and looked a potential Champion hurdle candidate, in the process.
That said, on official handicap ratings - and on form at Leopardstown in February, she shouldn’t beat Black Tears.
That one beat her by 5 lengths at the Dublin Racing festival in receipt of just 2lb.
She will receive an additional 6lb tomorrow - which suggests that Concertista will have quite a job on.
Black Tears also ran an excellent second to Dame de Compagnie at the Cheltenham festival.
That was in the Coral cup - a much stronger race than the mares hurdle.
In short, Black Tears should really be the bet - and a price of 5/1 is a potential gift.
However, it was in the new year, that Black Tears found her form last season - and the suspicion is it is going to be the same this season.
Certainly, she was well beaten by Buildmeupbuttercup, when she made her seasonal return at Punchestown last month - and she will need to leave that form well behind, if she is going to feature tomorrow.
Buildmeupbuttercup has a chance of placing tomorrow - as does My Sister Sarah.
On official ratings, My Sister Sarah actually has a chance of winning - as at the adjusted weights, she is the equal of Conertista.
I’d also give Minella Melody a chance of at least placing.
She has been trounced by Concertista on 2 of her last 3 runs - but prior to that, had looked seriously impressive.
She’ll need to bounce back - but it’s not impossible that she will do just that…

1:50

The first of the 2 grade 1s on the card, is likely to see Monkfish sent off a very short priced favourite.
He was a game winner of last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival - and made a scintillating chasing debut, when dotting up at Fairyhouse.
There was no doubt he was very impressive that day - but equally, he was sent off at 1/3 and beat virtually nothing.
I do feel that there was an over-reaction to his win - and his current price of 3/1 for the RSA, looks way too short.
Ofcourse, if he’s similarly impressive tomorrow, then it will look more reasonable - but that has yet to happen…
Latest Exhibition finished just a neck behind Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett - so in theory, there should be little between the pair tomorrow.
However, unlike Monkfish, his foray over fences hasn’t gone too well - and he was beaten on his most recent start.
That could either mean that he’s not as good over fences, as he was over hurdles - or that the Albert Bartlett form is not as strong as is thought…
Conflated and Eurobot are the only 2 others in the field, worthy of consideration.
Both are owned by Gigginstown - and the suggestion is that Conflated is the more fancied.
His form over both hurdles and fences, suggests he is a fair sort - but not top class.
I will be a little disappointing if he is good enough to win (though it’s not impossible).
It’s not quite as easy to get a handle on Eurobot - as he has only run twice in almost 2 years.
That said, his form suggests that he is also not from the top drawer…

2:25

Relatively speaking, the Matheson hurdle might not be quite as good as todays Savill chase - but it’s still an excellent renewal.
Most of the main Irish based contenders for the Champion hurdle have turned up - and the race should have a bearing on the big one in March.

Abracadabras and Saint Roi head the market, on the back of their battle in the Morgiana at Punchestown in November.
Abracadbras came out on top that day - but it was a messy race - and the general consensus was that Saint Roi was an unlucky loser.
Certainly that’s how the bookmakers are viewing it, with Saint Roi favoured to gain his revenge.
That said, this is not a 2 horse race.
Neither of the big two have fully convinced at the highest level - and on form, Abracadbaras has it all to do, to beat Aspire Tower.
That one came out on top by over 4 lengths when the pair met at Down Royal in October - so Abracadbras will have his work cut out, just to reverse that form.
Willie Mullins saddles a couple of very interesting sorts, in Sharjah and Saldier.
Sharjah has won the last 2 runnings of this race - and was runner up in last seasons Champion hurdle.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race - and it’s not surprising that he has already been backed.
Saldier is almost as interesting. He isn’t seen very often - but when he does appear, he tends to run a big race.
It’s over 400 days since his last outing - but he beat Petite Mouchoir that day.
Whilst on his previous outing, he was in the process of serving it up to subsequent champion hurdle winner Espoir Dallen, when he took a crashing fall at the final flight.
If he is ready to do himself justice, he will be hard to beat.
The final worthy of a mention is Coeur Sublime.
He caught my eye last time, when third to Abracadabra in the Morgiana.
That was hit first run for Gearoid O’Loughlin and he travelled all over his field, on the run to the final flight.
However he didn’t get home that day and ultimately faded in to fourth place.
That could have been caused by a lack of fitness - or by the heavy ground.
If it was the former, then he has a real chance of going close tomorrow - if it was the latter, then the soft ground at Leopardstown may again catch him out.

Dec 28th - No suggested bets

I can't find anything that warrants being a Best bet - and whilst I could probably suggest a small speculative bet or two for the Matrix, I'm going to resist... 

As a consequence, there will be no bets today.

Not issuing any bets today, will free up time which I will be able to use to study the form for tomorrows meetings.
There are plenty of potentially interesting races being run tomorrow - and I would like to be able to do them justice.

I'll aim to preview the main races from tomorrows meetings at Newbury, Doncaster and Leopardstown - and post my thoughts on the forum, this evening.
Any tips will be issued just after 9:00 tomorrow morning...

TVB.

Dec 28th - Preview for Leopardstown

 The meetings scheduled for tomorrow at both Leicester and Fontwell, have already been abandoned - and there’s not much of interest on the Catterick card. 

The attention will therefore be very much on Ireland.

However, there’s got to be a strong possibility that Limerick will again be lost - and even if it’s not, then there is only one race of interest…

As a consequence, tomorrows action is likely to be all about Leopardstown.

Thankfully it’s a good card - featuring a couple of outstanding races.

I’ve previewed both of them - along with the Pertemps qualifier.

A relatively quiet day for me, then..!


Leopardstown

12:40

As I often say, Pertemps qualifiers are never easy races to solve - and this one is a real rats nest !
I could probably short list half a dozen horses and still not get one in the frame !
Hopefully that won’t be the case, but it should give you an indication of my confidence level !

Unexpected Depth is the first one of interest.
He was a good winner of a 3 mile handicap hurdle at Punchestown, on his most recent outing.
That was a particularly noteworthy effort, as it was his first run in over a year.
He’s been raised 8lb for his efforts - but as he’s still only 6, there must be every possibility that he is still improving.
This is a tougher race, but he still looks to have a good chance.
Morosini is the next one of interest.
He is owned by JP McManus - and the booking of Mark Walsh, suggests he’s the owners number one hope in the race.
He was quite progressive last season - and ran a fair race on his most recent outing at Naas.
He’s only 5, so should still have plenty of improvement in him.
Mortal is better known as a chaser - but he is of interest in this race, because he is rated 26lb lower over hurdles !
That’s a massive amount - and if he can run anywhere near his chase rating, he should really be the one to beat.
That said, he doesn’t appear to be Joseph O’Briens main hope in the race.
Judged on jockey bookings, that appears to be Anything Will Do.
He’s another who is switching to hurdles, having recently run over fences. However, his form over fences can’t match that of Mortal…
The Bosses Oscar is the final one on the short-list.
He finished fifth in the Martin Pipe hurdle, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and was runner up in a fair race at Navan, on his most recent outing.
He was well beaten, but wasn’t disgraced behind a much improved winner.
He’s only been raised 1lb for that run - and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t again go close tomorrow.

1:15

The first of 2 cracking grade 1 contests on the card, this one looks more open than the betting implies…

Sire de Berlais has been installed a short price favourite for the race.
Whilst I don’t dispute he has a decent chance, I wouldn’t make him a 2/1 shot.
His win in the Pertemps final at last seasons Cheltenham festival, was very good - but not grade 1 form.
And whilst he was again impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Navan, he probably didn’t have a great deal to beat.
In fairness, he should be sharper for that run - and will be better suited by tomorrows 3 mile trip.
Ronald Pump was sent off favourite for the Navan race and still had half a chance when he fell at the final flight.
He followed that up by almost beating Honeysuckle at Fairyhouse - and that is top class form.
He also finished runner up in last years Stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - and on both pieces of form, he holds Bacardys.
That said, Barcardys was making his debut at Navan, and has very good course form at Leopardstown (he’s won 3 of the 4 times he has completed the course).
Fury Road was a top class novice last season - and he managed to finish third in a red hot renewal of the Albert Bartlett.
The form of that race has been franked in no uncertain terms this season, by the exploits of both the race winner, Monkfish and the fourth placed, Thyme Hill.
Fury Road has also managed to win his only subsequent race - though he wasn’t massively impressive when getting the better of relatively modest Dewcup.
However, he still remains a horse of great potential.
There are plenty outside of the market leaders, who can also be given half chances…
The Storyteller is quite closely linked with Sire de Berlais, on their Cheltenham run; whilst French Dynamite finished just half a length behind Sire de Barlais, at Navan last time.
Flooring Porter is a fast improving horse, who hacked up in a decent handicap at Navan, earlier this month.
It will be quite a jump for him into Grade 1 company - but he’s only 5, and so should still have plenty of scope for improvement.

2:25

This is undoubtedly the best race run so far this season (and it will take a bit of beating !).
14 runners - 10 of whom are rated 160 or above.
Chases don’t get much better than that !

Minella Indo heads the betting - and it’s hard to argue with that.
He’s a young chaser on the up. Narrowly denied by Champ in last seasons RSA chase, he has comfortably won his 2 chases this season, suggesting that he has again improved.
He’ll need to produce a personal best to win this race - but that’s a distinct possibility.
That said, he was only a length in front of Allaho when the pair filled the places behind Champ - and it’s been very close between the pair on the 3 other occasions  they have met.
Minella Indo does seem to be the slightly more talented of the pair - but there’s clearly not a lot between them.
Certainly it was not surprising to see the early 10/1 quotes about Allaho snapped up - no doubt helped by the horse being tipped in a variety of places !
Second favourite for the race, is Delta Work.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and I’ve little doubt that he will have been primed for a repeat.
He ran poorly on his seasonal debut at Down Royal, at the end of October - but I suspect that is irrelevant.
Of far more significance is the fact that Jack Kennedy has chosen to ride him - thus turning down both Presenting Percy and Samcro.
Tomorrows race is the acid test for Presenting Percy.
He seemed to have the world at his feet, when he won the 2018 RSA chase - but has generally disappointed since then.
He switched into the care of Gordon Elliott over the summer - and his last time defeat of Kemboy suggested that the fire may still be burning.
We’ll find out either way, tomorrow…
A Plus Tard is another fascinating runner, stepped up to 3 miles for the first time since his novice days.
His form over 2m4f is top class - so if the extra distance brings about some improvement, he could well have a say in things.
Samcro, Fakir Doudaries, Melon, Tornado Flyer and Easy Game, are equally fascinating contenders.
All 5 were novices last season - and are stepping up in trip.
They each have plenty to prove - but equally, could make massive improvement.
Samcro is possibly the most interesting of the quintet - but none of them can be categorically ruled out.

Dec 27th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Most of the early markets aren't sufficiently robust for me to issue at this point.
I'll therefore look to send out further bets, in an hours time...

Matrix bets

Kempton

3:05
Erick le Rouge 5 units win 12/1


Best bets

Kempton

3:05
Erick le Rouge 0.5pt win 12/1

Todays Suggested bets

The markets still aren't as strong as I'd like - but I have to issue at some point..!

Matrix bets

Kempton

1:20
Gumball 3 units win 6/1
Elusive Belle 1 unit win 14/1
Tamaroc du Matin 1 unit win 14/1

2:30
Duc des Geneivres 3 units win 6/1

3:40
Torigni 5 units win 11/2


Leopardstown

1:45
The Devilscoachman 2 units win 14/1

2:55
Ten Ten 5 units win 11/1 (FP 12/1)


Best bets

Kempton

3:40
Torigni 0.5pt win 11/2


Leopardstown

2:55
Ten Ten 0.5pt win 11/1 (FP 12/1)



The weather has messed things up a bit today: obviously via the abandonment of both Chepstow and Limerick - but also by changing the ground at the other 3 venues…

That tends to lead to non runners (which can affect race shapes) - and also gives me the issue of trying to figure out how the ground will actually be riding.

Suffice to say, the Live thread may once provide the best way of tackling things…

Very weak markets (no doubt caused by the uncertainty) also didn’t help with the issuing of bets.

I’ve ended up with 3 Best bets on the day - along with a few additional Matrix bets…


Kempton

I’m prepared to take on Shishkin in the 1:20.
I do rate the horse - and he is definitely the one to beat in the Arkle - but he could be vulnerable today…
Gumball is the key horse in the race. He will attack from the front and put pressure on Shishkins jumping.
If Shishkin cracks, then anything could happen (depending on how fast Gumball has gone !).
In that scenario, the most likely outcome is that Gumball makes all. However, it is also worth covering on Elusive Belle and Tamaroc du Mathan, in case the race collapses.
I’ve attempted to represent the above, via a series of bets for the Matrix !

I was hoping to side with Emmpressive Lady in the 1:55 - but a couple of non runners have messed up her price.
I’d be prepared to take 5/1 - but not much less…

I think Altior is vulnerable in the 2:30.
If the ground had remained quick, then Sceau Royal would have been the one - but rain has probably spoilt his chance.
I don’t like Duc des Genevries as much - but he will handle the ground and has the form to go close.
Not quite a Best bet - but worthy of support via the Matrix.

I could have read this wrong (!) - but I’m quite keen on Erick le Rouge.
The start point is his form around Kempton - which is different class to his form elsewhere.
What I find really interesting, is that he had a reported breathing problem on his first run of the season - but then ran again without any action being taken.
As a result, he has been dropped a total of 4lb - and he now returns to Kempton on the back of a wind op !
He also tends to run best after a break - so the enforced absence is a positive.
The slight doubt is with regard to the trip - but it’s a conscious decision by his connections - and it makes sense, in terms of the horse needing a longer trip as he gets older.
If I’ve got him wrong, then anything could win - though rain won’t particularly help the chances of either Double Shuffle or Adrien du Pont.

Despite 13 runners, I find it hard to look beyond the 4 markets leaders in the last.
Cadzand could be anything - but the price reflects that: whilst Hang in There has also been well found - and certainly comes with risks.
Torgini is the solid option. His run at Wetherby was very good - and if he has improved for that, he will set a high standard.

Wetherby

I wanted to side with Marracudja in the 2:10 - but not at 4/1 (or less).
First Flow is a huge danger - whilst Marracudja shouldn’t really beat The King of May, based on their latest runs, at Newbury.  
I was hoping for 6/1 - might have accepted 5/1 - but 4/1 is too short…

Leopardstown

There was a slight temptation to take on Chacan Pour Soi with Notebook in the 1:10 - but I’ve resisted.
I do think Chacan is top class - and I’m not convinced that Notebook is (though he may be !).
If I thought Chacan might not be at his best, then it would be worth a risk - but he shouldn’t have any excuses today and therefore, should really win…

It’s a bit of a left field shot, but I think Thedevilscoachman is worth siding with in the 1:45.
I might be completely wrong - but it’s a very difficult race to assess - and there are question marks over both of the market leaders.
In truth, there are plenty of options to take them on with - but I like Thedevilscoachman best and figure he is worth covering in the Matrix.

I was very disappointed to see Andy Holding tip Ten Ten in the 2:55.
The industry tipsters tend to massively skew the early markets - so if they put up one I fancy, then it always makes my job even harder.
As a consequence, I considered not putting him up - but I do like his profile…
He looks to have been targeted at the race: with most of his runs being over a shorter distance; a prep run over hurdles and booking of a crack apprentice, all subtle (or not so subtle !) signs…
Obviously you also need luck in these kind of races - but if he gets some, then he looks the one to beat.  

Dec 27th - Preview for Kempton, Wetherby & Leopardstown

 There are 5 NH meetings scheduled for tomorrow - but ‘Storm Bella’ is expected overnight, and there’s a distinct possibility that she could play havoc with things ! 

Plenty of rain is forecast - and that may well tip the balance at both Chepstow and Limerick, with the going at both courses already described as ‘heavy’…

From our perspective, it won’t make too much of a difference if Limerick is lost - as there aren’t really any suitable races for me to get involved with.
However, it’s a different matter at Chepstow.

The Welsh National is the high-light of their card - but there are also a couple of other races taking place, in which I might have been tempted to get involved…

In normal circumstances, I would probably press on and prview them regardless - but there is a glut of decent races tomorrow.

Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown all host races which may throw up potential bets - so it’s hard to justify spending a lot of time looking at Chepstow, when it might be lost to the rain.

As a consequence, what I will do, is focus on the 3 meetings which don’t appear to be in jeopardy - and produce previews for the main races on their cards (which is still a lot !).
I am a little worried as to how the weather will impact the ground at each of those - but I’ll have to assess that in the morning.

I’ll also assess the situation with Chepstow.
If it survives an early inspection, then I’ll try and find some time to preview the main races on the card.

These really are very busy times !


Kempton

1:20

There are only 4 runners declared for this race - but it still looks to be a fascinating contest.
Shishkin is the heavy odd on favourite - which is not too surprising.
He was an exceptional novice hurdler last season - and put in a faultless round of jumping, when making his chasing debut at Kempton last month.
The only thing is, he faced very limited opposition that day - and that won’t be the case tomorrow.
If he passes tomorrows test as impressively, then I’ll become a believer - but until that happens…
Gumball is the second favourite for the race - and I can see him really testing Shishkin.
I put him up as a Best bet last time at Cheltenham, and he was in the process of running a massive race, when he didn’t take off at the second last fence.
It was a bizarre thing for him to do, as he hadn’t put a foot wrong until that point.
Obviously such a heavy fall can dent a horses confidence - and it remains to be seen what affect it has had on him.
If he’s completely over it - and runs as he did at Cheltenham - then Shishkin is unlikely to have the same kind of stroll that he experienced last time.
Not that this is just a 2 horse race.
Elusive Belle was an impressive winner of a strong novice handicap at Newbury, last month - and Gumball is likely to set up the race perfectly for her.
In receipt of the 7lb mares allowance, she shouldn’t be under-estimated.
Tamaroc du Mathan would appear to have a lot on his plate - but he too was a very impressive winner last time and it’s hard to judge just how good he is.
Like Elusive Belle, he should benefit from the strong pace that Gumball is likely to provide - the question is simply whether he will be good enough, up against some potentially top class rivals.

1:55

Emmpressive Lady was a winning Best bet, earlier this month, when taking a mares contest at Sandown.
She won well that day - and a 5lb rating rise doesn’t seem overly harsh for a 3 length win.
However, that was a relatively weak race - and this one looks a fair bit stronger.
On the flip side, she is still likely to have improvement in her - particularly stepped up to 3 miles for the first time…
Molly Ollys Wishes was a similarly impressive winner last time at Hereford.
She has only been raised 6lb for that win - but once again, it was a relatively weak race.
She will find tomorrows contest much tougher - and she may not relish the step up in trip.
Perfect Myth finished second on her most recent outing in a strong mares hurdle at Wincanton.
The winner of that race has subsequently won again at Cheltenham - so whilst Perfect Myth has to race from a 4lb higher mark tomorrow, that doesn’t look unreasonable.
A bigger concern would be stepping up in trip on possibly softer ground (depending on whether the rain arrives).

2:30

The Desert Orchid chase will see the long awaited reappearance of Altior.
He was due to run in the Tingle Creek chase, earlier this month - but was pulled out on the day, on account of the ground.
He should have no excuse on that score tomorrow - regardless of what happens with the weather.
Therefore the result of race is likely to be determined by how much of his ability remains…
There can be little doubt that a peak form Altior would win the race - but equally, its been a little since he last showed his peak form and there have definitely been a few hints that he’s on the decline…
Ofcourse, he may still retain sufficient ability to win - but he’ll be 11 in a few days time and none of them go on for ever.
He also faces a few very useful rivals…
Duc de Genievres ran a huge race on his debut for Paul Nicholls, when finishing runner up to Put the Kettle on at Cheltenham.
A former Arkle winner, he also finished runner up in this race 12 months ago.
All things being equal, he should be Altiors biggest danger.
That said, Sceau Royal has been in really good form over hurdles this season - and I would expect him to run really well, provided the ground remains quick.
It was arguably a bit soft for him 12 months ago, when he finished a place behind Duc de Genievres - and that may be the case again tomorrow (if there is significant rain).
However, if the rain stays away, then he may well be capable of reversing the form - and he could prove to be Altiors biggest rival.
Good ground would also suit Rouge Vif.
In theory he is held by Global Citizen from their running in the novice chase on this card 12 months ago. However, there wasn’t much between the pair that day - and he seems to have improved in the interim.

3:05

Cap du Nord was an impressive winner at Newbury last month, when I made him a Best bet - and he must have a fair chance of following up tomorrow, even off a 10lb higher mark…
In theory, 10lb for 4 lengths seems quite harsh - however, he did win very easily that day - and the runner-up, Canelo, won the Rowland Meyrick today, from a 4lb higher mark.
In short, the form looks strong.
It certainly looks stronger than that of Darlac.
He got an 11lb rise for winning a modest class 3 race at Wincanton.
He may be up to defying his new mark - but he will need to have improved significantly, if he is to do so…
From a handicapping perspective, there are a couple of very interesting runners…
Adrien du Pont won this race 2 years ago - and from a mark 2lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
He’s still only 8 - so unlikely to be in decline. However, he is a horse who tends to flatter to deceive.
If he’s on a going day, he should prove hard to beat (he will be well suited to the Matrix).
Double Shuffle is the other one.
He is a course specialist and has finished second in both the King George and the old  ‘Racing Post chase’ - both run over tomorrows course.
The latter piece of form, was achieved when running off a mark of 154 - he is now rated 142.
The issue with him is that he will soon be 11 and appears to be in decline,.
However, if he were to bounce back to form, he would probably win.
Erick le Rouge is another course specialist.
All of his best form is at Kempton - including a good win in January.
He will race off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow - and just as interestingly, will be racing on the back of a recent wind op.
If that has done the trick, then I would expect him to run a big race.

3:40

Cadzand is an understandable favourite for this.
He’s only run twice over hurdles: Following up a debut second in a novice hurdle at Ayr, with a win in a similar race, at Warwick.
It’s nearly impossible to assess whether an opening handicap mark of 129 is fair - but it’s reasonable to assume that Dan Skelton is happy with it, as he is choosing to run him in a handicap, rather than remaining in novice events.
Hang in There is disputing favouritism with him - but has a very different profile.
He had some fair form in novice races last season - but has disappointed a little in 3 handicaps this term.
That said, better was expected last time - and he did run with a degree of promise.
His mark continues to drop - and he now has a rating 7lb lower than at the start of the season.
He’s probably capable of exploiting that - and looks to have a reasonable chance of doing so, tomorrow.
Torigni is the third one of major interest.
Ex French, he made his debut for Harry Whittington in a fair race at Wetherby last month.
He only managed to finish third that day - but shaped with a degree of promise and the 2 who beat him have both franked the form since.
A lot will depend on how much he has come on for that run - but if he has made average improvement, then he should be capable of getting into the mix. 

Wetherby

As was the case today, there is just the one race of interest on the Wetherby card - the Castleford Chase…

2:10

First Flow is a short priced favourite for this, on the back of his last time out win at Ascot.
He wasn’t overly impressive that day - only getting home by a neck.
Furthermore, he’s been raised 6lb for the win - which seems harsh.
However, he won that day despite whacking a few fences and running on ground which was probably too quick (and may have contributed to the jumping issues).
On a more suitable surface tomorrow, there is every chance he can shrug off the rating rise and follow up his win.
Nuts Well is next in the market.
He was rated 130, when he won at the course just over a year ago - but will race tomorrow off a mark of 159 !
That’s because he has won 5 of his last 6 races - finally fulfilling the promise he has always shown.
However, he’s not a young horse (soon to be 10) - and that improvement will level out sooner rather than later.
His rating now suggests he is a borderline graded horse - and I’m not convinced that is the case…
Marracudja won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and off a mark just 3lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He followed that up will a massive effort behind Defi du Seuil at Ascot - and whilst his mark shot up on the back of that, it has gradually edged back down.
He showed distinct promise last time at Newbury - and whilst based purely on that run, he shouldn’t beat The King Of May, I’m not sure that’s how it will work out. 

Leopardstown

1:10

This race provides Chacan Pour Soi with an opportunity to avenge his defeat in last years renewal.
He was sent off an odds on favourite that day - but was unable to hold off A Plus Tard.
In fairness, he was conceding race fitness, to a very useful animal - so he lost little in defeat.
Non-the-less, it is interesting that Willie Mullins has got a prep run into him this time.
That was at Cork, earlier this month, when he came home a relatively comfortable winner.
That form alone, wouldn’t be good enough to win tomorrows race - but apparently Chacan was only about 90% fit.
Presumably he will be much closer to 100% tomorrow - and his overall level of form makes him the one to beat.
That said, it’s no formality that he will be able to get the better of Notebook.
He developed into a high class novice chaser last season, with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
He returned at Naas last month and looked as good as ever, when defeating Fakir D’oudaries.
On official ratings, he still has 9lb to find with Chacan - but I suspect the gap between the pair isn’t that big…
Put the Kettle On is the other one to consider.
She was a surprise winner of last seasons Arkle - and managed another win at Cheltenham, on her seasonal reappearance.
There appears to be little between her and Notebook - and both still have potential for improvement.
Of the other 3: then Annamix and Castlegrace Paddy look a few pounds shy of the required level: whilst Le Richebourg has yet to prove that he has recovered from the injury which kept him off the course for almost 2 years…

1:45

The second grade 1 on the card, looks a lot harder to solve…
Ballyadam and Appreciate It are vying for favouritism - and they certainly look the ones to beat.
Both were very useful bumper horses (Appreciate It finished runner up in last seasons Cheltenham bumper) - and are unbeaten in their runs over hurdles, this season.
Ballyadam is already a grade 1 winner over hurdles, having taken the Royal Bond, at Fairyhouse, at the end of November.
He was expected to win that day - but wasn’t massively impressive in justifying odds of 8/15.
Appreciate It has only run once over hurdles - when winning a Cork novice hurdle, at odds of 1/12.
His position at the head of the market, is down purely, to his bumper form…
In truth, neither of them look completely bomb proof - though picking one to beat them, isn’t easy…
Call me Lyreen could be the one based on ratings. However he doesn’t seem to quite have the potential of one or two of the others,..
Keskonrisk, Thedevilscoachman and Irascible have all won their sole runs over hurdles - and fall into the category of ‘could be anything’.
Thedevilscoachman is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - but in truth, this is a race where so much guesswork is required, a watching brief is almost certainly the best call…

2:55

I’m a bit surprised to see Locks Corner installed as favourite for this race.
He is trained in the UK by Jonjo O’Neil - and I was under the impression that travel between the UK and Ireland, was currently banned !
Presumably he was sent over last week and has been stabled locally…
In terms of his chance in the race - then the fact he has been targeted at it and is owned by JP McManus are clearly big positives.
He is very unexposed (just 4 runs over fences) - so still has plenty of scope for improvement. On the flip side, he lacks chasing experience, for a race of this nature.
He clearly has a chance - but whether he warrants being quite so short in the betting, is a different matter…
Farclas and Home By the Sea are the next 2 in the betting - and they also have limited experience over fences.
Farclas has also only completed in 4 chases - which is one more than Home by the Lea.
That said, Farclass did run well in a big field chase last time; Whilst Home by the Lea won a competitive 11 runner chase on his penultimate outing.
Like Locks Corner, they have to be included on any short list, simply because they could be very well handicapped.
That said, Farclas is held by Dunvegan on their most recent run at Punchestown, behind Daly Tiger.
That was a very strong race and Dunvegan finished a place in front of Farclas.
Both were making their seasonal debuts - but the suspicion is that Farclas would have derived most benefit from the run, as he had been absent for nearly 18 months.
Castlebawn West actually finished just ahead of them both (in third place).
The issue with him is simply that there is very little wriggle room, off his current mark of 148.
Ten Ten is the final one of interest.
He was a fair novice chaser last season, when campaigned mainly over the minimum trip.
His sole win came when he was stepped up to 2m4f…
He showed distinct promise on his seasonal return, over hurdles at Naas; whilst 5lb claimer, Simon Torrens, taking over in the saddle from Luke Dempsey, is another eye catching move.
He is also owned by JP McManus, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting, in relation to Lock’s Corner.

Dec 26th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Kempton

1:15
William H Bonney 3 units win 14/1
Galahad Quest 2 units win 20/1

3:00
Lostintranslation 5 units win 8/1
Cyrname 2 units win 5/2
Real Steal 1 unit win 14/1

Wetherby

2:05 
Spiritofthegames 5 units win 6/1


Best bets

Kempton

3:00
Lostintranslation 0.5pt win 8/1

Wetherby

2:05 
Spiritofthegames 0.5pt win 6/1

As I suggested in the preview, there were never going to be many bets, today…

The races/fields weren’t really there - and that coupled with uncertainty over ground conditions, definitely encouraged a cautious approach.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of Best bets on the day - supported by a few Matrix bets…


Kempton

I could quite fancy William H Bonney in the 1:15 - but the race does look particularly trappy.
As a consequence, I can’t make him a Best bet - but I can cover him via the Matrix, along with Galahad Quest, who also looks over-priced, at 20/1…

Shan Blue should win the 1:50 - but he faces some fair opponents - and there are also one or two doubts about him (stepping up in grade - and going right handed).
It’s not too hard, to resist a price of less than 2/1.

Epatant is likely to outclass her rivals - and Silver Streak is likely to follow her home.
If you can find any way to make that pay, then please do :)

I considered putting up Lostintranslation as an ante-post selection for the King George (3:00) - but doubts over his well being and the state of the ground, stopped me.
However, his stable seem very bullish about his condition - and the ground will almost certainly be in his favour, so I’m now happy to take the plunge.
He does have a slightly inconsistent profile - but his best form puts him right in the mix - and I can see the race suiting him perfectly…
If he does under-perform, then I suspect Cyrname will win.
Paul Nicholls has been particularly careful with his preparation - and I’m pretty sure he is the stables number one.
That said, Real Steal is also worth a tiny saver. He ran really well in last seasons Gold cup - and if there is to be a surprise today, then I think he will provide it.

Wetherby

If Spiritofthegames stays the trip, then I think he will win the Roland Meyrick (2:05).
He has run with credit in some of the very best handicap chases - and this is definitely a drop in class for him.
I would expect Bridget Andrews to settle him in last place - and delay his challenge until between the final 2 fences.
It still won’t be a formality that he will win - but the Wetherby run in, is quite short and with no hill, so provided she times it right, I’d be relatively optimistic that he will be able to last home.

Wincanton

The Pertemps qualifier (2:45) just looks too much of a minefield, to get involved with.
I suspect the betting will accurately direct - but even if we knew how that would pan out, we would only be able to get on the ‘right’ horse, once the price had gone.
My guess is that Tedham will be the one who will get backed - but it is a guess.
In theory, Jacamar could represent some value - though I suspect he is more likely to place that he is to win…

Leopardstown

I did consider suggesting Darver Star in the 2:15.
However, he faces at least 2 credible rivals - and there are some slight doubts concerning both his jumping and his stamina.
It all comes down to price - and 7/2 feels about right (so minimal margin).

Limerick

I got even closer to suggesting Janidil in the 2:35.
I certainly feel Asterios Forlonge is too short at even money.
However, I can give both Pencilfuloflead and Colreevy a chance - and that diminishes my confidence in Janidil.
5/1 is not a bad price - but I just don’t feel quite strongly enough, to suggest him… 

Dec 26th - Preview for Kempton, Wetherby, Wincanton, Leopardstown and Limerick

With just the 3 NH meetings taking place in the UK, it’s a much quieter Boxing day than is usually the case. 

However, the quality has remained - it’s the quantity which has been sacrificed.

Over in Ireland, business is similar to normal, with Leopardstown and Limerick providing the entertainment.

Despite the 5 meetings, betting opportunities look quite thin on the ground.
The races/fields aren’t really there - so I’m expecting a relatively light day, bets wise.

The other issue, is that old Chestnut, the ground.
At Kempton it’s apparently ‘good to soft’; whilst at Wincanton it’s ‘heavy’ - with Wetherby sat in-between !

Over in Ireland, the ground at Limerick is described as ‘heavy’; whilst I heard a rumour that Leopardstown were considering watering !  

Suffice to say, I’ll be intrigued to see what things actually look like…

I’ve previewed the 4 televised races from Kempton; along with the main race on each of the other 4 cards.
Hopefully any bets that I manage to find, will be from these 8 races…


Kempton

1:15

In theory, this should be one of the more likely betting races of the day - however it looks an absolute minefield !

There are 10 runners - and whilst I would be relatively happy to dismiss outsider, Oistrakh le Noir, victory for any of the other 9, would come as no great surprise.
Top weight Hold the Note, probably sets the race standard, on the back of his third place at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He’s disappointed in his 3 runs this season - but they have all been over longer distances and he drops back to 2m4f tomorrow.
He also races off a mark 5lb lower than at Cheltenham - so if he can repeat that level of form, he’s should be placed, at least.
The trouble is, virtually all of his rivals are potentially progressive sorts - and it would be no surprise to see 2 or 3 of them take a big step forward.
Favourite, Alnadam was impressive last time at Sandown, and even off a mark 8lb higher, could prove tough to beat.
Mr One More is totally unexposed - but appears to be well thought of and has hurdles from from a few seasons back, which suggests he could be very well handicapped.
Son of Camas has similar potential - though he is making his chasing debut, and will also need to bounce back from a couple of very disappointing efforts.
Away from the head of the market, the 2 who make most appeal, are Galahad Quest and William H Bonney.
The former, is a 4 year old - and so receives a 6lb weight allowance from his rivals.
He is another who is making his chasing debut, so there is a fair amount of guesswork required.
However, he has some very good form over hurdles - and if he can translate that to the bigger obstacles, he should go close.
William H Bonney is already 9 - which is quite old for a novice chaser.
However, he ran with distinct credit on his chasing debut in a hot race at Newbury - and is well handicapped based on his hurdles form.
He should relish the decent ground - and whilst he is unproven over the trip, if he does stay, then he could be the value play in the race.

1:50

Shan Blue looks very much the one to beat in this…
Whilst not the best of these over hurdles - he’s been a revelation in his 2 chase starts to date.
Both have been at Wetherby and in each, he has travelled strongly and jumped particularly slickly.
In truth, the substance of the form leaves a little to be desired - but that is often the case with novice events and there can certainly be no arguing with the style he has shown.
Kempton will provide quite a different challenge (for a start, it is right handed) - but he still looks the one to beat…
The Big Breakaway was a fair bit better than Shan Blue over hurdles - and was expected to make a high class chaser.
He still may do so - but I wasn’t massively impressed by him on his chasing debut at Cheltenham - and wasn’t overly surprised when he was beaten last time at Exeter.
I suspect he will end up a very good chaser - but I just can’t see him being particularly well suited by a relatively quick 3 miles around Kempton.
It’s a similar story with If the Cap Fits,
He was top class over hurdles - but I’ll be a little surprised if he scales the same heights over fences.
Again, I also think he would appreciate stiffer test of stamina than he will get tomorrow.
The other 4 probably won’t be quite good enough.
I could see the test suiting Enrillo - but he wasn’t top class over hurdles and is rated 12lb inferior to Shan Blue over fences.
Kalooki impressed me on his chasing debut at Newbury - but was then put in his place next time, by Next Destination.
On that run, he shouldn’t beat One for the Team - but I don’t think he will be quick enough to win around Kempton on decent ground.
I could see Golan Fortune out running his odds.
He is the complete outsider of the field, however he is not rated much lower than a few of his rivals - and may get an uncontested lead.
I could see him leading into the straight - but would expect Shan Blue to pick him off, over the final couple of fences…

2:25

If Shan Blue looks the likely winner of the previous race - then Epatante looks a near certainty in this !
The reigning Champion hurdler, she arguably looked better than ever when making a wining seasonal re-appearance at Wetherby.
Whilst she was helped by a couple of her rivals exiting the race early, she still put up a really impressive performance in slamming Sceau Royal by 4 lengths.
She showed a startling turn of foot that day, with Aidan Coleman only delivering her
challenge, after she had jumped the last.
There can be little doubt that she is the best horse in tomorrows field - and
That’s probably even without the 7lb sex allowance that she receives.
If she is beaten, then it will almost certainly be on account of tactics.
A small field, means there is a chance that something could steal the race from the
front.
In truth, that’s unlikely, as her stablemate Floressa, is likely to provide the pace (and is also likely to simply set up the race for Epatante).
More of a danger, is her leaving her challenge as late as last time.
The issue is that if she messes up jumping the final flight, she could be out-sprinted on the run in.
That is a possibility - and if it does happen, then Silver Streak appears the one most likely to benefit.
Whether I would want to bet on it happening however, is a different matter.
Instead I’ll probably just watch the race - and hope to witness a top class mare, at the peak of her powers…

3:00

The King George is being viewed at a face off between the Paul Nicholls trained duo, Clan des Obeaux and Cyrname - and I guess that’s how it may work out…
Clan des Obeaux has won the past 2 renewals of the race - and has every chance of completing his hatrick.
Certainly, he lost little in defeat last time, when narrowly beaten by Bristol des Mai at Haydock.
However, he did have a very hard race that day and I would be slightly concerned that it may have taken the edge of him.
!2 months ago, Cyrname was a short priced favourite for this race - but that was on a the back of a very hard race at Ascot (when he defeated Altior).
This time, his preparation has been very different and he arrives following a convincing win at Wetherby, 7 weeks ago.
I would expect him to be cherry ripe tomorrow - and whatever beats him, is likely to win…
Santini has been supplemented for the race - which is an interesting move.
However, as talented as he is, I don't think Kempton is his course and I’ll be very surprised if he manages to come home in front.
Lostintranslation has no chance based on his run at Haydock behind Bristol de Mai - but we clearly didn’t see the best of him that day.
If he can repeat the form of his run in last years Gold cup, then he could take a bit of beating.
He looked the most likely winner approaching the final fence that day - but was outstayed up the hill.
Decent ground at Kempton will be very much in his favour - and I could certainly see him putting in a bold show.
Real Steal is another who could easily run well - though he will need to leave his latest run at Ascot, well behind.
Waiting Patiently strikes me as the most interesting of the outsiders - though it will require a massive effort for him to win on his seasonal debut - particularly as he isn’t guaranteed to stay the 3 mile trip.

Wetherby

2:05

The Rowland Meyrick chase is the high-light of the Wetherby Boxing day card…

Snow Leopardess is the early favourite on the back of a gutsy win at Haydock last time.
She battled her way through the mud that day, for a hard fought victory.
However, she drops back in trip tomorrow - and will be competing in a stronger race, from a 9lb higher mark.
She also had a very hard race…
Canelo finished a good second last time at Newbury, staying on well at the end.
He steps up 2 furlongs tomorrow - and that should help.
However, he also steps up in grade and will be running off a mark 4lb higher.
Spiritofthegames has run in top class Cheltenham handicaps on 5 of his last 6 outings.
He’s not managed to win any of them - but has finished second on 3 occasions.
Tomorrows race represents a drop in class for him - and interestingly, he also steps up in trip by half a mile.
The big question, is whether he will cope with it - because if he does, he could outclass his rivals.
Beau Boy was a game winner at Aintree last time (  ) - and he is also of interest, stepped up in trip.
He won the Aintree race through stamina - and also has a good record at Wetherby.
On the flip side, tomorrows race represents quite a step up in class.
Springtown Lake finished fifth to Beau Bay at Aintree, but can be given a chance of reversing the form, on 8lb better terms.
He is yet another who is unproven at the trip - and I’m never keen on first time head gear coupled with a distance increase…


Wincanton

2:45

The Pertemps qualifier is the main race on the Wincanton card.
Such races tend to be hard enough to solve at the best of times - and this looks a particularly trappy example…

Shang Tang and Southfield Harvest head the market.
They finished first and second in a 4 horse race at Ascot, last time.
Southfield Harvest was sent off favourite that day - but Shang Tang came out on top, by 3 lengths.
On the same terms tomorrow, I would expect the form to be upheld - acknowledging that it is likely to be quite a different race…
Interestingly, Shang Tang was supposed to run at Ascot last Friday, in a weaker race than tomorrows.
I quite fancied him for that - but he was pulled out due to travel problems.
What does seem a little strange is that he was a relatively big price that day (around 7/1) - yet is currently trading at 5/2 for tomorrows contest…
Tedham was a convincing winner over tomorrows course and distance, just under 2 years ago.
He’s only run 5 times since then - but has shaped well on a couple of those occasions.
He will be racing off a 5lb higher mark tomorrow - and on much softer ground.
However, the booking of Kevin Brogan (who takes off 7lb), really catches the eye.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see him very well backed, if connections believe he will handle the ground - and in that case, he could prove hard to beat.
Both Jacamar and Miss Honey Ryder caught my eye on their most recent outings - and under normal circumstances, would be of interest.
I would certainly expect Jacamar to run well - and he could be the value play in the race.
However, I’m a little put off by the fact that Miss Honey Ryder will be sporting first time cheek pieces.
She ran a bit too freely last time, and I can’t see the head gear helping the situation…
Duc de Beauchene caught the eye of the stewards at Uttoxeter last time - and is another who could easily put in a much improved effort, tomorrow.
That said, he was only 7th in the corresponding race last season - when he was quite well fancied and running off a mark 1lb lower…


Leopardstown

The Leopardstown meeting tends to build over the 4 days - with tomorrows card probably the weakest of the quartet.

2:15

The Grade 1 Racing Post novice chase is the highlight of the opening day.
It features a re-match between Felix Desjy and Darver Star.
The pair met at Punchestown in November and whilst Darver Star was slightly favoured in the betting that day, it was Felix who came out on top.
In fact, Darvers Star ran disappointingly - ultimately beaten nearly 10 lengths.
It’s hard to know why that was, as he had won impressively on his chasing debut at the same course, a month earlier.
It’s possible that he didn’t handle the very heavy ground - in which case tomorrows faster surface should suit him.
It’s also interesting that he’s had his wind tweaked in the interim (suggesting there may have been a slight breathing issue).
Based on his hurdles form of last season (the highlight of which was his third in the Champion hurdle), he is the best horse in the race.
Therefore, if connections can get him back on his ‘A’ game, he should be the one to beat.
That said, this is not a 2 horse race.
Blackbow was impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Navan.
He was a fair novice hurdler - but the switch to fences may have triggered significant improvement.
However, I suspect he is at his best on soft ground (which he is unlikely to get).
The other 3 probably won’t be good enough - though Embittered is still only 6 and has already run to a decent level over fences.
If he can find some further improvement (which is possible), then that could put him right in the mix.


Limerick

2:35

The second Grade 1 novice chase of the day - and it’s interesting that Paul Townend has travelled to Limerick to ride Asterion Forlonge (his only ride on the card), when he could have taken a few decent rides at Leopardstown.
There is no disputing the potential of Asterion Forlonge - though equally, his tendency to jump markedly to his right, is a definite concern.
He got away with it on his chasing debut at Punchestown - and it’s no surprise to see him kept to a right handed track tomorrow.
The question is how far he will be able to progress, whilst not jumping in a straight line…
Clearly, it’s better to be jumping right handed on a right handed course - however, it’s better not to be jumping right handed at all !
He undoubtedly has huge ability - and that has enabled him to get way with it so far.
However, it will eventually catch him out, if it continues - and it may catch him out tomorrow…
Certainly, he faces a few decent rivals - though it’s hard to choose one in particular.
Pencilfuloflead ran really well when beating Latest Exhibition last time - but he drops 2 furlongs in distance tomorrow and I’m not sure that’s what he wants…
Janidil was a good winner at Naas last time - and he retains potential.
He is probably the one I would fancy most, to topple the favourite,
That said, it’s hard to crab Colreevy on the back of her comfortable chasing debut win at Punchestown.
She was very useful over hurdles last season - and could prove to be even better over fences.
She also receives a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals - and that will definitely help her cause. 

Review of the weekend - Dec 18th-19th

 2 days at Ascot, provided the high-light of the final weekend before Christmas - even if there were few people present to watch it… 

Friday

There is an argument that I should have skipped Fridays racing completely.

It’s not a card that I’ve covered in previous years - but then again, it’s not previously been shown on Terrestrial TV.

It was this year - and so I decided I would cover it.
However, even as I was writing the preview, I was questioning the wisdom of that decision !

The 6 race card contained only 4 races of any possible interest from a betting perspective.

Two of those were handicaps - but they were both very hard to read - and that was before a few key NRs came through.

I ended up ducking them both, from a betting perspective - which was a good call !

The other 2 races were graded novice events - and I decided to get involved with one of those.

That was the novice chase - in which I felt a decent case could be made for Pic D’Orhy.

That may have been true - but it was clear from early on, that the main objective with him, was to get round safely.

In fact, if I was being cynical, I could say it was clear pre-race - as he was quite a drifter !

Whatever, he gave up the outside to no-one - and as soon as push came to shove, he backed out of things.

I’ve no idea what the plan will be for him - but from my perspective, I will just be watching, in the short term at least…

Somewhat ironically, I should maybe have got involved with the other novice race.

I’d narrowed it down to 2 - and one of those, My Drogo, came home a comfortable winner - at 9/1.

The only problem is, he was my second choice in the race - and the price when I could tip him was nearer 4/1 !

As I said, in hindsight probably a day I should have swerved…


Saturday

A much better day, in terms of betting opportunities - and I ended up with 4 Best bets on the day.

One of them was in a race which I didn’t have time to preview - and he was the first suggested bet to run…

I do like Donald McCain horses in the Haydock mud.

A few of the service regulars may recall Ubaltique.
He did us a favour a few years back - and I was very hopeful that Chti Balko might do similar, this morning (!)

He was a 4/1 shot at 10:00 - due mainly to massive support for Ebony Jewel.
To be honest, I didn’t really understand that - though you always have to be wary, when that kind of money arrives.

The only other apparent danger in the race was Tegerek - but he planted at the start and refused to take any part.

In the race itself, Chti Balko tracked Thinking, until that one unshipped his jockey at the fourth.
He then disputed the lead, until taking it up clearly, on the turn for home.

He was already trading odds on IR at that point - and then preceded to just put his rivals to the sword.

The further they went, the further he went clear.
It was 26 lengths at the line - and that didn’t flatter him.

If only he could have lent a few of those lengths to some of the early Best bets (not that I’m still haunted by that period !).

There was then a long gap before the next Best bet took to the track.

That was Lord Napier - who was also running at Haydock.

He also ran well - taking up the running from Roll Again - and retaining the lead into the home straight.
However, he came under pressure shortly after that - and it was soon clear that it wasn’t going to be his day.

There was still a chance that the Matrix might collect, via Sojourn.
He traded odds on IR - as so many of the Matrix bets do - but couldn’t manage to hold off Sams Adventure.

With Salty Boy (my third choice in the race) running on into third, it really was a case of (very) close - but no cigar…

Label des Obeaux was the third Best bet to run.
I thought he would represent a bit of value in a very winnabel race - but I was wrong !

The 8/1 this morning had halved by the off - and to be honest, I wouldn’t have been interested in him at that price.

That said, he was clearly there to win - and he did run a really big race.

He was out of his ground turning in - but switched on the turbo after jumping the third last.

For a moment, he looked likely to win - and traded at 1.43 IR.
However, he had nothing left after jumping the last - and faded into fourth place.

Thankfully, the race was saved for the Matrix, by Queenofhearts.
All things being equal, she was the one I wanted to tip. However her price was way too short last night - and still a bit short this morning.

As a consequence, she became a saver - and did indeed save the day.
She was returned at a perfectly respectable 5/1 - and was available a couple of points bigger than that on the exchanges, just before the off.

One for the Live thread…

The final Best bet to run on the day was Benson - and I was very keen on him (think Cloth Cap keen !).

I did consider having 1pt on him - but settled for 0.5pt - and ultimately that was the right call.

The problem was, he lacked experience for a big field handicap (and I suspect he is also a bit quirky).
He made a bad mistake at the second flight - and that put him in last place.

With all the kick back, that’s never a good place to be - and I did wonder if he might get pulled up.

However, he instead started to motor - and despite a wayward jump at the second last, it was clear that there was still plenty of petrol in the tank.

He must have made up 20 lengths, after jumping the last - it was just a shame that he was 30 lengths adrift, approaching it !

There’s little doubt in my mind, that he was the best horse in the race - but alas, the best horse doesn’t always win…

I’d also covered Belfast Banter in the Matrix - but his story was similar to that of Benson.
He was out the back early - and whilst he tried to lay down a challenge, between the final 2 flights, he had been given a bit too much to do…

The only other bet on the day, was Flying Angel.
I covered him for the Matrix, because I felt he had a chance in the staying chase - and was a decent price.
He ran a fair race - but wasn't quite up to the task.
If I’d got more heavily involved with the race, it would have been with The Conditional.
However, he couldn’t quite manage to peg back the front running, rejuvenated,  Mister Malarky…

Earlier on the Ascot card, I resisted the temptation to side with Saint De Vassy, because I could see too many dangers.
As it happened, he ran a poor race and was pulled up, leaving the 2 main dangers, Bennys King and Gardefort, to fight out the finish.
Bennys eventually came out on top - though I felt Gardefort could easily have won, if things have played out slightly differently.

Finally, Paisley Park ran down Thyme Hill in the shadows of the post, to claim a thrilling Long Walk hurdle.
As most of you probably know, I prefer chases to hurdles - and long distance hurdles probably sit at the very bottom of my pile !

However, I can honestly say that was as good a race as I’ve watched in a long time - and I barely had a bet in it (I'm ignoring my speculative fiver on Portrush Ted !).

An absolute classic !

TVB.

Dec 19th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Ascot

3:00
Flying Angel 2 units win 14/1

3:35
Benson 6 units win 15/2
Belfast Banter 2 units win 12/1

Haydock

2:40
Lord Napier 6 units win 8/1
Sojourn 2 units win 3/1


Best bets
Ascot

3:35
Benson 0.5pt win 15/2

Haydock

2:40
Lord Napier 0.5pt win 8/1

  

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Haydock

11:50
Chti Balko 10 units win 4/1

3:15
Label des Obeaux 5 units win 17/2
Queenofhearts 2 units win 4/1


Best bets

Haydock

11:50
Chti Balko 1pt win 4/1 (MP 3/1)

3:15
Label des Obeaux 0.5pt win 17/2 (MP 7/1) 

It’s become apparent over the past few weeks, that I need a bit of flexibility, with regard to the time I issue the bets…

I started the season with the aim of issuing at 10:00 - but spent the first few weeks, just watching prices pointlessly ebbing away in the hour between 9:00 and 10:00.

I therefore switched to 9:00 - but it’s clear that some of the markets can’t cope with me tipping at that time (the prices instantly crash).

As a consequence, I’ve switched to a hybrid solution: 10:00 on the days when I expect the markets to be fragile - and 10:00 on the days when I expect them to be more robust.

However, I learnt today - that it’s not simply down to days of the week..!

There is no way I could have issued a couple of todays bets at 9:00 - and expected more than a handful of you to get on.

As a result, I split the issuing - and I hope/feel that it went OK…

I’m conscious that I don’t want to be messing people about.
I’m sure that most of you have other things that you want to do during your days.
I’ll therefore just stick with the 2 times: just after 9:00 if I think the markets can handle it: otherwise, just after 10:00.

Obviously, I’ll advise in advance, which timings I’ll be using on a particular day…


In terms of todays bets - then there are quite a few !
Unlike yesterday, opportunities were plentiful - it was simply a case of picking the best ones.

Hopefully, I’ve chosen right….


Haydock

I didn’t preview the opening race on the Haydock card - so apologies for that.
Producing the previews early, means that I also have to commit early to the races where I think I’m most likely to find bets.
Obviously my focus is on the biggest races of the day - most of which are on Terrestrial TV. However, there are always one or two borderline calls.
That was certainly the case at both Haydock and Ascot day - where, if I had the time, I could easily have previewed every race on both cards…

In terms of the Haydock opener, then I’m pretty keen on Chti Balko…
He caught my eye last time, on his seasonal debut at Bangor.
He ran well that day, despite finishing last - yet has been dropped 5lb in the handicap.
That’s generous, as it puts him just 3lb above his last winning mark, when he bolted up by 10 lengths.
Whilst it’s an apprentice race, his jockey, Theo Gillard, is still able to claim 6lb - which is at least 3lb more than every other jockey in the race (and effectively takes him back down to this last winning mark).
The big attraction with Chti Balko, is his ability to handle the Haydock mud.
He’s won 3 times previously, on heavy ground at Haydock.
Tegerak was making the market last night - but he’s an enigmatic sort, who could easily throw in the towel, when the going gets tough.
He’s now been replaced at the head of the betting by Ebony Jewel.
He’s a more reliable sort - but I’m happy to take him on with Chti Balko.
Whatever, I’ll be very disappointed/surprised, if Chti doesn’t run his race and go very close.
Fingers crossed !

In the 2:05 race I like War Lord best - but the form of the Tizzard stable, is a worry.
He’s drifted out to the point where he could be worth a risk - and I’ll certainly be monitoring him closely, on the Live thread.
Away from him, a case can be made for most of the others - but equally, they all have question marks to overcome…

On hurdles form Lord Napier is handicapped to win the 2:40.
He will also handle the ground - and the Peter Bowen stable is now in god form (at long last !).
He’s the only horse that he sends to the course - and the only ride for James Bowen.
The fear is that Sojourn is simply better class. He will relish conditions - so if he does have 10lb in hand of his mark, he will be hard to beat.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.

I think it is worth taking a risk on Label des Obeaux in the last.
It strikes me that he has been primed for this race - with the 10lb claimer on top, the telling sign.
I watched him riding in a couple of recent races and he looks tidy enough to me.
That being the case, most of the 10lb will be a gift.
Queenofhearts has drifted sufficiently (and sufficiently early !) to warrant a saver for the Matrix.


Ascot

After lots of thought, I decide to leave the 1:50 race alone.
I’ll be amazed if Saint de Vassy doesn’t run well - but less amazed if he doesn't win.
There are dangers all over the place - the tricky bit is picking out the right one.
I’ll backed him myself, at 13/2 - and I’ve saved on Gardefort - but I can see at least 4 others who could win.
Therefore, I’ve decided to leave the race alone, it terms of official bets.

I was never going to get involved in the Long Walk hurdle (2:25).
I have backed Portrush Ted - but it was EW, as I’ll be surprised if he can beat either of the market leaders (who both look very solid).
Unfortunately, there have already been 2 NRs - and one more will take the place terms down to 2, which will mess up my bet !

The Conditional strikes me as the most likely winner of the 3:00 - and he may even reach an acceptable price (another one to monitor on the Live thread).
However, the 10/3 currently available with the bookies, is too short.
Flying Angel is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s not the most consistent - but has won off the same mark in the past.
He’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.

I’m pretty keen on Benson in the finale.
I could be wrong, but I reckon he could still have a stone in hand of his mark.
He was right in the mix at Sandown in February, with a host of 150 rated horses, when he unseated.
There was a chance that was a fluke - but he effort last time, strongly suggested it wasn’t.
Off 137 today, he could possibly bolt up…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Belfast Banter.
The recent record of Irish horses in big handicaps is ridiculous - and he has the right kind of profile to mess things up for Benson.
I’ll be disappointed if that is the case - but he has to be covered in the Matrix.