With just the 3 NH meetings taking place in the UK, it’s a much quieter Boxing day than is usually the case.
However, the quality has remained - it’s the quantity which has been sacrificed.Over in Ireland, business is similar to normal, with Leopardstown and Limerick providing the entertainment.
Despite the 5 meetings, betting opportunities look quite thin on the ground.
The races/fields aren’t really there - so I’m expecting a relatively light day, bets wise.
The other issue, is that old Chestnut, the ground.
At Kempton it’s apparently ‘good to soft’; whilst at Wincanton it’s ‘heavy’ - with Wetherby sat in-between !
Over in Ireland, the ground at Limerick is described as ‘heavy’; whilst I heard a rumour that Leopardstown were considering watering !
Suffice to say, I’ll be intrigued to see what things actually look like…
I’ve previewed the 4 televised races from Kempton; along with the main race on each of the other 4 cards.
Hopefully any bets that I manage to find, will be from these 8 races…
Kempton
1:15
In theory, this should be one of the more likely betting races of the day - however it looks an absolute minefield !
There are 10 runners - and whilst I would be relatively happy to dismiss outsider, Oistrakh le Noir, victory for any of the other 9, would come as no great surprise.
Top weight Hold the Note, probably sets the race standard, on the back of his third place at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He’s disappointed in his 3 runs this season - but they have all been over longer distances and he drops back to 2m4f tomorrow.
He also races off a mark 5lb lower than at Cheltenham - so if he can repeat that level of form, he’s should be placed, at least.
The trouble is, virtually all of his rivals are potentially progressive sorts - and it would be no surprise to see 2 or 3 of them take a big step forward.
Favourite, Alnadam was impressive last time at Sandown, and even off a mark 8lb higher, could prove tough to beat.
Mr One More is totally unexposed - but appears to be well thought of and has hurdles from from a few seasons back, which suggests he could be very well handicapped.
Son of Camas has similar potential - though he is making his chasing debut, and will also need to bounce back from a couple of very disappointing efforts.
Away from the head of the market, the 2 who make most appeal, are Galahad Quest and William H Bonney.
The former, is a 4 year old - and so receives a 6lb weight allowance from his rivals.
He is another who is making his chasing debut, so there is a fair amount of guesswork required.
However, he has some very good form over hurdles - and if he can translate that to the bigger obstacles, he should go close.
William H Bonney is already 9 - which is quite old for a novice chaser.
However, he ran with distinct credit on his chasing debut in a hot race at Newbury - and is well handicapped based on his hurdles form.
He should relish the decent ground - and whilst he is unproven over the trip, if he does stay, then he could be the value play in the race.
1:50
Shan Blue looks very much the one to beat in this…
Whilst not the best of these over hurdles - he’s been a revelation in his 2 chase starts to date.
Both have been at Wetherby and in each, he has travelled strongly and jumped particularly slickly.
In truth, the substance of the form leaves a little to be desired - but that is often the case with novice events and there can certainly be no arguing with the style he has shown.
Kempton will provide quite a different challenge (for a start, it is right handed) - but he still looks the one to beat…
The Big Breakaway was a fair bit better than Shan Blue over hurdles - and was expected to make a high class chaser.
He still may do so - but I wasn’t massively impressed by him on his chasing debut at Cheltenham - and wasn’t overly surprised when he was beaten last time at Exeter.
I suspect he will end up a very good chaser - but I just can’t see him being particularly well suited by a relatively quick 3 miles around Kempton.
It’s a similar story with If the Cap Fits,
He was top class over hurdles - but I’ll be a little surprised if he scales the same heights over fences.
Again, I also think he would appreciate stiffer test of stamina than he will get tomorrow.
The other 4 probably won’t be quite good enough.
I could see the test suiting Enrillo - but he wasn’t top class over hurdles and is rated 12lb inferior to Shan Blue over fences.
Kalooki impressed me on his chasing debut at Newbury - but was then put in his place next time, by Next Destination.
On that run, he shouldn’t beat One for the Team - but I don’t think he will be quick enough to win around Kempton on decent ground.
I could see Golan Fortune out running his odds.
He is the complete outsider of the field, however he is not rated much lower than a few of his rivals - and may get an uncontested lead.
I could see him leading into the straight - but would expect Shan Blue to pick him off, over the final couple of fences…
2:25
If Shan Blue looks the likely winner of the previous race - then Epatante looks a near certainty in this !
The reigning Champion hurdler, she arguably looked better than ever when making a wining seasonal re-appearance at Wetherby.
Whilst she was helped by a couple of her rivals exiting the race early, she still put up a really impressive performance in slamming Sceau Royal by 4 lengths.
She showed a startling turn of foot that day, with Aidan Coleman only delivering her
challenge, after she had jumped the last.
There can be little doubt that she is the best horse in tomorrows field - and
That’s probably even without the 7lb sex allowance that she receives.
If she is beaten, then it will almost certainly be on account of tactics.
A small field, means there is a chance that something could steal the race from the
front.
In truth, that’s unlikely, as her stablemate Floressa, is likely to provide the pace (and is also likely to simply set up the race for Epatante).
More of a danger, is her leaving her challenge as late as last time.
The issue is that if she messes up jumping the final flight, she could be out-sprinted on the run in.
That is a possibility - and if it does happen, then Silver Streak appears the one most likely to benefit.
Whether I would want to bet on it happening however, is a different matter.
Instead I’ll probably just watch the race - and hope to witness a top class mare, at the peak of her powers…
3:00
The King George is being viewed at a face off between the Paul Nicholls trained duo, Clan des Obeaux and Cyrname - and I guess that’s how it may work out…
Clan des Obeaux has won the past 2 renewals of the race - and has every chance of completing his hatrick.
Certainly, he lost little in defeat last time, when narrowly beaten by Bristol des Mai at Haydock.
However, he did have a very hard race that day and I would be slightly concerned that it may have taken the edge of him.
!2 months ago, Cyrname was a short priced favourite for this race - but that was on a the back of a very hard race at Ascot (when he defeated Altior).
This time, his preparation has been very different and he arrives following a convincing win at Wetherby, 7 weeks ago.
I would expect him to be cherry ripe tomorrow - and whatever beats him, is likely to win…
Santini has been supplemented for the race - which is an interesting move.
However, as talented as he is, I don't think Kempton is his course and I’ll be very surprised if he manages to come home in front.
Lostintranslation has no chance based on his run at Haydock behind Bristol de Mai - but we clearly didn’t see the best of him that day.
If he can repeat the form of his run in last years Gold cup, then he could take a bit of beating.
He looked the most likely winner approaching the final fence that day - but was outstayed up the hill.
Decent ground at Kempton will be very much in his favour - and I could certainly see him putting in a bold show.
Real Steal is another who could easily run well - though he will need to leave his latest run at Ascot, well behind.
Waiting Patiently strikes me as the most interesting of the outsiders - though it will require a massive effort for him to win on his seasonal debut - particularly as he isn’t guaranteed to stay the 3 mile trip.
Wetherby
2:05
The Rowland Meyrick chase is the high-light of the Wetherby Boxing day card…
Snow Leopardess is the early favourite on the back of a gutsy win at Haydock last time.
She battled her way through the mud that day, for a hard fought victory.
However, she drops back in trip tomorrow - and will be competing in a stronger race, from a 9lb higher mark.
She also had a very hard race…
Canelo finished a good second last time at Newbury, staying on well at the end.
He steps up 2 furlongs tomorrow - and that should help.
However, he also steps up in grade and will be running off a mark 4lb higher.
Spiritofthegames has run in top class Cheltenham handicaps on 5 of his last 6 outings.
He’s not managed to win any of them - but has finished second on 3 occasions.
Tomorrows race represents a drop in class for him - and interestingly, he also steps up in trip by half a mile.
The big question, is whether he will cope with it - because if he does, he could outclass his rivals.
Beau Boy was a game winner at Aintree last time (![]()
) - and he is also of interest, stepped up in trip.
He won the Aintree race through stamina - and also has a good record at Wetherby.
On the flip side, tomorrows race represents quite a step up in class.
Springtown Lake finished fifth to Beau Bay at Aintree, but can be given a chance of reversing the form, on 8lb better terms.
He is yet another who is unproven at the trip - and I’m never keen on first time head gear coupled with a distance increase…
Wincanton
2:45
The Pertemps qualifier is the main race on the Wincanton card.
Such races tend to be hard enough to solve at the best of times - and this looks a particularly trappy example…
Shang Tang and Southfield Harvest head the market.
They finished first and second in a 4 horse race at Ascot, last time.
Southfield Harvest was sent off favourite that day - but Shang Tang came out on top, by 3 lengths.
On the same terms tomorrow, I would expect the form to be upheld - acknowledging that it is likely to be quite a different race…
Interestingly, Shang Tang was supposed to run at Ascot last Friday, in a weaker race than tomorrows.
I quite fancied him for that - but he was pulled out due to travel problems.
What does seem a little strange is that he was a relatively big price that day (around 7/1) - yet is currently trading at 5/2 for tomorrows contest…
Tedham was a convincing winner over tomorrows course and distance, just under 2 years ago.
He’s only run 5 times since then - but has shaped well on a couple of those occasions.
He will be racing off a 5lb higher mark tomorrow - and on much softer ground.
However, the booking of Kevin Brogan (who takes off 7lb), really catches the eye.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see him very well backed, if connections believe he will handle the ground - and in that case, he could prove hard to beat.
Both Jacamar and Miss Honey Ryder caught my eye on their most recent outings - and under normal circumstances, would be of interest.
I would certainly expect Jacamar to run well - and he could be the value play in the race.
However, I’m a little put off by the fact that Miss Honey Ryder will be sporting first time cheek pieces.
She ran a bit too freely last time, and I can’t see the head gear helping the situation…
Duc de Beauchene caught the eye of the stewards at Uttoxeter last time - and is another who could easily put in a much improved effort, tomorrow.
That said, he was only 7th in the corresponding race last season - when he was quite well fancied and running off a mark 1lb lower…
Leopardstown
The Leopardstown meeting tends to build over the 4 days - with tomorrows card probably the weakest of the quartet.
2:15
The Grade 1 Racing Post novice chase is the highlight of the opening day.
It features a re-match between Felix Desjy and Darver Star.
The pair met at Punchestown in November and whilst Darver Star was slightly favoured in the betting that day, it was Felix who came out on top.
In fact, Darvers Star ran disappointingly - ultimately beaten nearly 10 lengths.
It’s hard to know why that was, as he had won impressively on his chasing debut at the same course, a month earlier.
It’s possible that he didn’t handle the very heavy ground - in which case tomorrows faster surface should suit him.
It’s also interesting that he’s had his wind tweaked in the interim (suggesting there may have been a slight breathing issue).
Based on his hurdles form of last season (the highlight of which was his third in the Champion hurdle), he is the best horse in the race.
Therefore, if connections can get him back on his ‘A’ game, he should be the one to beat.
That said, this is not a 2 horse race.
Blackbow was impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Navan.
He was a fair novice hurdler - but the switch to fences may have triggered significant improvement.
However, I suspect he is at his best on soft ground (which he is unlikely to get).
The other 3 probably won’t be good enough - though Embittered is still only 6 and has already run to a decent level over fences.
If he can find some further improvement (which is possible), then that could put him right in the mix.
Limerick
2:35
The second Grade 1 novice chase of the day - and it’s interesting that Paul Townend has travelled to Limerick to ride Asterion Forlonge (his only ride on the card), when he could have taken a few decent rides at Leopardstown.
There is no disputing the potential of Asterion Forlonge - though equally, his tendency to jump markedly to his right, is a definite concern.
He got away with it on his chasing debut at Punchestown - and it’s no surprise to see him kept to a right handed track tomorrow.
The question is how far he will be able to progress, whilst not jumping in a straight line…
Clearly, it’s better to be jumping right handed on a right handed course - however, it’s better not to be jumping right handed at all !
He undoubtedly has huge ability - and that has enabled him to get way with it so far.
However, it will eventually catch him out, if it continues - and it may catch him out tomorrow…
Certainly, he faces a few decent rivals - though it’s hard to choose one in particular.
Pencilfuloflead ran really well when beating Latest Exhibition last time - but he drops 2 furlongs in distance tomorrow and I’m not sure that’s what he wants…
Janidil was a good winner at Naas last time - and he retains potential.
He is probably the one I would fancy most, to topple the favourite,
That said, it’s hard to crab Colreevy on the back of her comfortable chasing debut win at Punchestown.
She was very useful over hurdles last season - and could prove to be even better over fences.
She also receives a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals - and that will definitely help her cause.
2:05
The Rowland Meyrick chase is the high-light of the Wetherby Boxing day card…
Snow Leopardess is the early favourite on the back of a gutsy win at Haydock last time.
She battled her way through the mud that day, for a hard fought victory.
However, she drops back in trip tomorrow - and will be competing in a stronger race, from a 9lb higher mark.
She also had a very hard race…
Canelo finished a good second last time at Newbury, staying on well at the end.
He steps up 2 furlongs tomorrow - and that should help.
However, he also steps up in grade and will be running off a mark 4lb higher.
Spiritofthegames has run in top class Cheltenham handicaps on 5 of his last 6 outings.
He’s not managed to win any of them - but has finished second on 3 occasions.
Tomorrows race represents a drop in class for him - and interestingly, he also steps up in trip by half a mile.
The big question, is whether he will cope with it - because if he does, he could outclass his rivals.
Beau Boy was a game winner at Aintree last time (
He won the Aintree race through stamina - and also has a good record at Wetherby.
On the flip side, tomorrows race represents quite a step up in class.
Springtown Lake finished fifth to Beau Bay at Aintree, but can be given a chance of reversing the form, on 8lb better terms.
He is yet another who is unproven at the trip - and I’m never keen on first time head gear coupled with a distance increase…
Wincanton
2:45
The Pertemps qualifier is the main race on the Wincanton card.
Such races tend to be hard enough to solve at the best of times - and this looks a particularly trappy example…
Shang Tang and Southfield Harvest head the market.
They finished first and second in a 4 horse race at Ascot, last time.
Southfield Harvest was sent off favourite that day - but Shang Tang came out on top, by 3 lengths.
On the same terms tomorrow, I would expect the form to be upheld - acknowledging that it is likely to be quite a different race…
Interestingly, Shang Tang was supposed to run at Ascot last Friday, in a weaker race than tomorrows.
I quite fancied him for that - but he was pulled out due to travel problems.
What does seem a little strange is that he was a relatively big price that day (around 7/1) - yet is currently trading at 5/2 for tomorrows contest…
Tedham was a convincing winner over tomorrows course and distance, just under 2 years ago.
He’s only run 5 times since then - but has shaped well on a couple of those occasions.
He will be racing off a 5lb higher mark tomorrow - and on much softer ground.
However, the booking of Kevin Brogan (who takes off 7lb), really catches the eye.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see him very well backed, if connections believe he will handle the ground - and in that case, he could prove hard to beat.
Both Jacamar and Miss Honey Ryder caught my eye on their most recent outings - and under normal circumstances, would be of interest.
I would certainly expect Jacamar to run well - and he could be the value play in the race.
However, I’m a little put off by the fact that Miss Honey Ryder will be sporting first time cheek pieces.
She ran a bit too freely last time, and I can’t see the head gear helping the situation…
Duc de Beauchene caught the eye of the stewards at Uttoxeter last time - and is another who could easily put in a much improved effort, tomorrow.
That said, he was only 7th in the corresponding race last season - when he was quite well fancied and running off a mark 1lb lower…
Leopardstown
The Leopardstown meeting tends to build over the 4 days - with tomorrows card probably the weakest of the quartet.
2:15
The Grade 1 Racing Post novice chase is the highlight of the opening day.
It features a re-match between Felix Desjy and Darver Star.
The pair met at Punchestown in November and whilst Darver Star was slightly favoured in the betting that day, it was Felix who came out on top.
In fact, Darvers Star ran disappointingly - ultimately beaten nearly 10 lengths.
It’s hard to know why that was, as he had won impressively on his chasing debut at the same course, a month earlier.
It’s possible that he didn’t handle the very heavy ground - in which case tomorrows faster surface should suit him.
It’s also interesting that he’s had his wind tweaked in the interim (suggesting there may have been a slight breathing issue).
Based on his hurdles form of last season (the highlight of which was his third in the Champion hurdle), he is the best horse in the race.
Therefore, if connections can get him back on his ‘A’ game, he should be the one to beat.
That said, this is not a 2 horse race.
Blackbow was impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Navan.
He was a fair novice hurdler - but the switch to fences may have triggered significant improvement.
However, I suspect he is at his best on soft ground (which he is unlikely to get).
The other 3 probably won’t be good enough - though Embittered is still only 6 and has already run to a decent level over fences.
If he can find some further improvement (which is possible), then that could put him right in the mix.
Limerick
2:35
The second Grade 1 novice chase of the day - and it’s interesting that Paul Townend has travelled to Limerick to ride Asterion Forlonge (his only ride on the card), when he could have taken a few decent rides at Leopardstown.
There is no disputing the potential of Asterion Forlonge - though equally, his tendency to jump markedly to his right, is a definite concern.
He got away with it on his chasing debut at Punchestown - and it’s no surprise to see him kept to a right handed track tomorrow.
The question is how far he will be able to progress, whilst not jumping in a straight line…
Clearly, it’s better to be jumping right handed on a right handed course - however, it’s better not to be jumping right handed at all !
He undoubtedly has huge ability - and that has enabled him to get way with it so far.
However, it will eventually catch him out, if it continues - and it may catch him out tomorrow…
Certainly, he faces a few decent rivals - though it’s hard to choose one in particular.
Pencilfuloflead ran really well when beating Latest Exhibition last time - but he drops 2 furlongs in distance tomorrow and I’m not sure that’s what he wants…
Janidil was a good winner at Naas last time - and he retains potential.
He is probably the one I would fancy most, to topple the favourite,
That said, it’s hard to crab Colreevy on the back of her comfortable chasing debut win at Punchestown.
She was very useful over hurdles last season - and could prove to be even better over fences.
She also receives a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals - and that will definitely help her cause.
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