Todays Suggested bets
Matrix
bets
Kempton
1:15
William H Bonney 3 units win 14/1
Galahad Quest 2 units win 20/1
3:00
Lostintranslation 5 units win 8/1
Cyrname 2 units win 5/2
Real Steal 1 unit win 14/1
Wetherby
2:05
Spiritofthegames 5 units win 6/1
Best bets
Kempton
3:00
Lostintranslation 0.5pt win 8/1
Wetherby
2:05
Spiritofthegames 0.5pt win 6/1
Kempton
1:15
William H Bonney 3 units win 14/1
Galahad Quest 2 units win 20/1
3:00
Lostintranslation 5 units win 8/1
Cyrname 2 units win 5/2
Real Steal 1 unit win 14/1
Wetherby
2:05
Spiritofthegames 5 units win 6/1
Best bets
Kempton
3:00
Lostintranslation 0.5pt win 8/1
Wetherby
2:05
Spiritofthegames 0.5pt win 6/1
As I suggested in the preview, there were never going to be
many bets, today…
The races/fields weren’t really there - and that coupled with uncertainty over ground conditions, definitely encouraged a cautious approach.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of Best bets on the day - supported by a few Matrix bets…
Kempton
I could quite fancy William H Bonney in the 1:15 - but the race does look particularly trappy.
As a consequence, I can’t make him a Best bet - but I can cover him via the Matrix, along with Galahad Quest, who also looks over-priced, at 20/1…
Shan Blue should win the 1:50 - but he faces some fair opponents - and there are also one or two doubts about him (stepping up in grade - and going right handed).
It’s not too hard, to resist a price of less than 2/1.
Epatant is likely to outclass her rivals - and Silver Streak is likely to follow her home.
If you can find any way to make that pay, then please do :)
I considered putting up Lostintranslation as an ante-post selection for the King George (3:00) - but doubts over his well being and the state of the ground, stopped me.
However, his stable seem very bullish about his condition - and the ground will almost certainly be in his favour, so I’m now happy to take the plunge.
He does have a slightly inconsistent profile - but his best form puts him right in the mix - and I can see the race suiting him perfectly…
If he does under-perform, then I suspect Cyrname will win.
Paul Nicholls has been particularly careful with his preparation - and I’m pretty sure he is the stables number one.
That said, Real Steal is also worth a tiny saver. He ran really well in last seasons Gold cup - and if there is to be a surprise today, then I think he will provide it.
Wetherby
If Spiritofthegames stays the trip, then I think he will win the Roland Meyrick (2:05).
He has run with credit in some of the very best handicap chases - and this is definitely a drop in class for him.
I would expect Bridget Andrews to settle him in last place - and delay his challenge until between the final 2 fences.
It still won’t be a formality that he will win - but the Wetherby run in, is quite short and with no hill, so provided she times it right, I’d be relatively optimistic that he will be able to last home.
Wincanton
The Pertemps qualifier (2:45) just looks too much of a minefield, to get involved with.
I suspect the betting will accurately direct - but even if we knew how that would pan out, we would only be able to get on the ‘right’ horse, once the price had gone.
My guess is that Tedham will be the one who will get backed - but it is a guess.
In theory, Jacamar could represent some value - though I suspect he is more likely to place that he is to win…
Leopardstown
I did consider suggesting Darver Star in the 2:15.
However, he faces at least 2 credible rivals - and there are some slight doubts concerning both his jumping and his stamina.
It all comes down to price - and 7/2 feels about right (so minimal margin).
Limerick
I got even closer to suggesting Janidil in the 2:35.
I certainly feel Asterios Forlonge is too short at even money.
However, I can give both Pencilfuloflead and Colreevy a chance - and that diminishes my confidence in Janidil.
5/1 is not a bad price - but I just don’t feel quite strongly enough, to suggest him…
The races/fields weren’t really there - and that coupled with uncertainty over ground conditions, definitely encouraged a cautious approach.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of Best bets on the day - supported by a few Matrix bets…
Kempton
I could quite fancy William H Bonney in the 1:15 - but the race does look particularly trappy.
As a consequence, I can’t make him a Best bet - but I can cover him via the Matrix, along with Galahad Quest, who also looks over-priced, at 20/1…
Shan Blue should win the 1:50 - but he faces some fair opponents - and there are also one or two doubts about him (stepping up in grade - and going right handed).
It’s not too hard, to resist a price of less than 2/1.
Epatant is likely to outclass her rivals - and Silver Streak is likely to follow her home.
If you can find any way to make that pay, then please do :)
I considered putting up Lostintranslation as an ante-post selection for the King George (3:00) - but doubts over his well being and the state of the ground, stopped me.
However, his stable seem very bullish about his condition - and the ground will almost certainly be in his favour, so I’m now happy to take the plunge.
He does have a slightly inconsistent profile - but his best form puts him right in the mix - and I can see the race suiting him perfectly…
If he does under-perform, then I suspect Cyrname will win.
Paul Nicholls has been particularly careful with his preparation - and I’m pretty sure he is the stables number one.
That said, Real Steal is also worth a tiny saver. He ran really well in last seasons Gold cup - and if there is to be a surprise today, then I think he will provide it.
Wetherby
If Spiritofthegames stays the trip, then I think he will win the Roland Meyrick (2:05).
He has run with credit in some of the very best handicap chases - and this is definitely a drop in class for him.
I would expect Bridget Andrews to settle him in last place - and delay his challenge until between the final 2 fences.
It still won’t be a formality that he will win - but the Wetherby run in, is quite short and with no hill, so provided she times it right, I’d be relatively optimistic that he will be able to last home.
Wincanton
The Pertemps qualifier (2:45) just looks too much of a minefield, to get involved with.
I suspect the betting will accurately direct - but even if we knew how that would pan out, we would only be able to get on the ‘right’ horse, once the price had gone.
My guess is that Tedham will be the one who will get backed - but it is a guess.
In theory, Jacamar could represent some value - though I suspect he is more likely to place that he is to win…
Leopardstown
I did consider suggesting Darver Star in the 2:15.
However, he faces at least 2 credible rivals - and there are some slight doubts concerning both his jumping and his stamina.
It all comes down to price - and 7/2 feels about right (so minimal margin).
Limerick
I got even closer to suggesting Janidil in the 2:35.
I certainly feel Asterios Forlonge is too short at even money.
However, I can give both Pencilfuloflead and Colreevy a chance - and that diminishes my confidence in Janidil.
5/1 is not a bad price - but I just don’t feel quite strongly enough, to suggest him…
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