There are 5 NH meetings scheduled for tomorrow - but ‘Storm Bella’ is expected overnight, and there’s a distinct possibility that she could play havoc with things !
Plenty of rain is forecast - and that may well tip the balance at both Chepstow and Limerick, with the going at both courses already described as ‘heavy’…
From our perspective, it won’t make too much of a difference if Limerick is lost - as there aren’t really any suitable races for me to get involved with.
However, it’s a different matter at Chepstow.
The Welsh National is the high-light of their card - but there are also a couple of other races taking place, in which I might have been tempted to get involved…
In normal circumstances, I would probably press on and prview them regardless - but there is a glut of decent races tomorrow.
Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown all host races which may throw up potential bets - so it’s hard to justify spending a lot of time looking at Chepstow, when it might be lost to the rain.
As a consequence, what I will do, is focus on the 3 meetings which don’t appear to be in jeopardy - and produce previews for the main races on their cards (which is still a lot !).
I am a little worried as to how the weather will impact the ground at each of those - but I’ll have to assess that in the morning.
I’ll also assess the situation with Chepstow.
If it survives an early inspection, then I’ll try and find some time to preview the main races on the card.
These really are very busy times !
Kempton
1:20
There are only 4 runners declared for this race - but it still looks to be a fascinating contest.
Shishkin is the heavy odd on favourite - which is not too surprising.
He was an exceptional novice hurdler last season - and put in a faultless round of jumping, when making his chasing debut at Kempton last month.
The only thing is, he faced very limited opposition that day - and that won’t be the case tomorrow.
If he passes tomorrows test as impressively, then I’ll become a believer - but until that happens…
Gumball is the second favourite for the race - and I can see him really testing Shishkin.
I put him up as a Best bet last time at Cheltenham, and he was in the process of running a massive race, when he didn’t take off at the second last fence.
It was a bizarre thing for him to do, as he hadn’t put a foot wrong until that point.
Obviously such a heavy fall can dent a horses confidence - and it remains to be seen what affect it has had on him.
If he’s completely over it - and runs as he did at Cheltenham - then Shishkin is unlikely to have the same kind of stroll that he experienced last time.
Not that this is just a 2 horse race.
Elusive Belle was an impressive winner of a strong novice handicap at Newbury, last month - and Gumball is likely to set up the race perfectly for her.
In receipt of the 7lb mares allowance, she shouldn’t be under-estimated.
Tamaroc du Mathan would appear to have a lot on his plate - but he too was a very impressive winner last time and it’s hard to judge just how good he is.
Like Elusive Belle, he should benefit from the strong pace that Gumball is likely to provide - the question is simply whether he will be good enough, up against some potentially top class rivals.
1:55
Emmpressive Lady was a winning Best bet, earlier this month, when taking a mares contest at Sandown.
She won well that day - and a 5lb rating rise doesn’t seem overly harsh for a 3 length win.
However, that was a relatively weak race - and this one looks a fair bit stronger.
On the flip side, she is still likely to have improvement in her - particularly stepped up to 3 miles for the first time…
Molly Ollys Wishes was a similarly impressive winner last time at Hereford.
She has only been raised 6lb for that win - but once again, it was a relatively weak race.
She will find tomorrows contest much tougher - and she may not relish the step up in trip.
Perfect Myth finished second on her most recent outing in a strong mares hurdle at Wincanton.
The winner of that race has subsequently won again at Cheltenham - so whilst Perfect Myth has to race from a 4lb higher mark tomorrow, that doesn’t look unreasonable.
A bigger concern would be stepping up in trip on possibly softer ground (depending on whether the rain arrives).
2:30
The Desert Orchid chase will see the long awaited reappearance of Altior.
He was due to run in the Tingle Creek chase, earlier this month - but was pulled out on the day, on account of the ground.
He should have no excuse on that score tomorrow - regardless of what happens with the weather.
Therefore the result of race is likely to be determined by how much of his ability remains…
There can be little doubt that a peak form Altior would win the race - but equally, its been a little since he last showed his peak form and there have definitely been a few hints that he’s on the decline…
Ofcourse, he may still retain sufficient ability to win - but he’ll be 11 in a few days time and none of them go on for ever.
He also faces a few very useful rivals…
Duc de Genievres ran a huge race on his debut for Paul Nicholls, when finishing runner up to Put the Kettle on at Cheltenham.
A former Arkle winner, he also finished runner up in this race 12 months ago.
All things being equal, he should be Altiors biggest danger.
That said, Sceau Royal has been in really good form over hurdles this season - and I would expect him to run really well, provided the ground remains quick.
It was arguably a bit soft for him 12 months ago, when he finished a place behind Duc de Genievres - and that may be the case again tomorrow (if there is significant rain).
However, if the rain stays away, then he may well be capable of reversing the form - and he could prove to be Altiors biggest rival.
Good ground would also suit Rouge Vif.
In theory he is held by Global Citizen from their running in the novice chase on this card 12 months ago. However, there wasn’t much between the pair that day - and he seems to have improved in the interim.
3:05
Cap du Nord was an impressive winner at Newbury last month, when I made him a Best bet - and he must have a fair chance of following up tomorrow, even off a 10lb higher mark…
In theory, 10lb for 4 lengths seems quite harsh - however, he did win very easily that day - and the runner-up, Canelo, won the Rowland Meyrick today, from a 4lb higher mark.
In short, the form looks strong.
It certainly looks stronger than that of Darlac.
He got an 11lb rise for winning a modest class 3 race at Wincanton.
He may be up to defying his new mark - but he will need to have improved significantly, if he is to do so…
From a handicapping perspective, there are a couple of very interesting runners…
Adrien du Pont won this race 2 years ago - and from a mark 2lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
He’s still only 8 - so unlikely to be in decline. However, he is a horse who tends to flatter to deceive.
If he’s on a going day, he should prove hard to beat (he will be well suited to the Matrix).
Double Shuffle is the other one.
He is a course specialist and has finished second in both the King George and the old ‘Racing Post chase’ - both run over tomorrows course.
The latter piece of form, was achieved when running off a mark of 154 - he is now rated 142.
The issue with him is that he will soon be 11 and appears to be in decline,.
However, if he were to bounce back to form, he would probably win.
Erick le Rouge is another course specialist.
All of his best form is at Kempton - including a good win in January.
He will race off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow - and just as interestingly, will be racing on the back of a recent wind op.
If that has done the trick, then I would expect him to run a big race.
3:40
Cadzand is an understandable favourite for this.
He’s only run twice over hurdles: Following up a debut second in a novice hurdle at Ayr, with a win in a similar race, at Warwick.
It’s nearly impossible to assess whether an opening handicap mark of 129 is fair - but it’s reasonable to assume that Dan Skelton is happy with it, as he is choosing to run him in a handicap, rather than remaining in novice events.
Hang in There is disputing favouritism with him - but has a very different profile.
He had some fair form in novice races last season - but has disappointed a little in 3 handicaps this term.
That said, better was expected last time - and he did run with a degree of promise.
His mark continues to drop - and he now has a rating 7lb lower than at the start of the season.
He’s probably capable of exploiting that - and looks to have a reasonable chance of doing so, tomorrow.
Torigni is the third one of major interest.
Ex French, he made his debut for Harry Whittington in a fair race at Wetherby last month.
He only managed to finish third that day - but shaped with a degree of promise and the 2 who beat him have both franked the form since.
A lot will depend on how much he has come on for that run - but if he has made average improvement, then he should be capable of getting into the mix.
Wetherby
As was the case today, there is just the one race of interest on the Wetherby card - the Castleford Chase…
2:10
First Flow is a short priced favourite for this, on the back of his last time out win at Ascot.
He wasn’t overly impressive that day - only getting home by a neck.
Furthermore, he’s been raised 6lb for the win - which seems harsh.
However, he won that day despite whacking a few fences and running on ground which was probably too quick (and may have contributed to the jumping issues).
On a more suitable surface tomorrow, there is every chance he can shrug off the rating rise and follow up his win.
Nuts Well is next in the market.
He was rated 130, when he won at the course just over a year ago - but will race tomorrow off a mark of 159 !
That’s because he has won 5 of his last 6 races - finally fulfilling the promise he has always shown.
However, he’s not a young horse (soon to be 10) - and that improvement will level out sooner rather than later.
His rating now suggests he is a borderline graded horse - and I’m not convinced that is the case…
Marracudja won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and off a mark just 3lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He followed that up will a massive effort behind Defi du Seuil at Ascot - and whilst his mark shot up on the back of that, it has gradually edged back down.
He showed distinct promise last time at Newbury - and whilst based purely on that run, he shouldn’t beat The King Of May, I’m not sure that’s how it will work out.
As was the case today, there is just the one race of interest on the Wetherby card - the Castleford Chase…
2:10
First Flow is a short priced favourite for this, on the back of his last time out win at Ascot.
He wasn’t overly impressive that day - only getting home by a neck.
Furthermore, he’s been raised 6lb for the win - which seems harsh.
However, he won that day despite whacking a few fences and running on ground which was probably too quick (and may have contributed to the jumping issues).
On a more suitable surface tomorrow, there is every chance he can shrug off the rating rise and follow up his win.
Nuts Well is next in the market.
He was rated 130, when he won at the course just over a year ago - but will race tomorrow off a mark of 159 !
That’s because he has won 5 of his last 6 races - finally fulfilling the promise he has always shown.
However, he’s not a young horse (soon to be 10) - and that improvement will level out sooner rather than later.
His rating now suggests he is a borderline graded horse - and I’m not convinced that is the case…
Marracudja won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and off a mark just 3lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He followed that up will a massive effort behind Defi du Seuil at Ascot - and whilst his mark shot up on the back of that, it has gradually edged back down.
He showed distinct promise last time at Newbury - and whilst based purely on that run, he shouldn’t beat The King Of May, I’m not sure that’s how it will work out.
Leopardstown
1:10
This race provides Chacan Pour Soi with an opportunity to avenge his defeat in last years renewal.
He was sent off an odds on favourite that day - but was unable to hold off A Plus Tard.
In fairness, he was conceding race fitness, to a very useful animal - so he lost little in defeat.
Non-the-less, it is interesting that Willie Mullins has got a prep run into him this time.
That was at Cork, earlier this month, when he came home a relatively comfortable winner.
That form alone, wouldn’t be good enough to win tomorrows race - but apparently Chacan was only about 90% fit.
Presumably he will be much closer to 100% tomorrow - and his overall level of form makes him the one to beat.
That said, it’s no formality that he will be able to get the better of Notebook.
He developed into a high class novice chaser last season, with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
He returned at Naas last month and looked as good as ever, when defeating Fakir D’oudaries.
On official ratings, he still has 9lb to find with Chacan - but I suspect the gap between the pair isn’t that big…
Put the Kettle On is the other one to consider.
She was a surprise winner of last seasons Arkle - and managed another win at Cheltenham, on her seasonal reappearance.
There appears to be little between her and Notebook - and both still have potential for improvement.
Of the other 3: then Annamix and Castlegrace Paddy look a few pounds shy of the required level: whilst Le Richebourg has yet to prove that he has recovered from the injury which kept him off the course for almost 2 years…
1:45
The second grade 1 on the card, looks a lot harder to solve…
Ballyadam and Appreciate It are vying for favouritism - and they certainly look the ones to beat.
Both were very useful bumper horses (Appreciate It finished runner up in last seasons Cheltenham bumper) - and are unbeaten in their runs over hurdles, this season.
Ballyadam is already a grade 1 winner over hurdles, having taken the Royal Bond, at Fairyhouse, at the end of November.
He was expected to win that day - but wasn’t massively impressive in justifying odds of 8/15.
Appreciate It has only run once over hurdles - when winning a Cork novice hurdle, at odds of 1/12.
His position at the head of the market, is down purely, to his bumper form…
In truth, neither of them look completely bomb proof - though picking one to beat them, isn’t easy…
Call me Lyreen could be the one based on ratings. However he doesn’t seem to quite have the potential of one or two of the others,..
Keskonrisk, Thedevilscoachman and Irascible have all won their sole runs over hurdles - and fall into the category of ‘could be anything’.
Thedevilscoachman is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - but in truth, this is a race where so much guesswork is required, a watching brief is almost certainly the best call…
2:55
I’m a bit surprised to see Locks Corner installed as favourite for this race.
He is trained in the UK by Jonjo O’Neil - and I was under the impression that travel between the UK and Ireland, was currently banned !
Presumably he was sent over last week and has been stabled locally…
In terms of his chance in the race - then the fact he has been targeted at it and is owned by JP McManus are clearly big positives.
He is very unexposed (just 4 runs over fences) - so still has plenty of scope for improvement. On the flip side, he lacks chasing experience, for a race of this nature.
He clearly has a chance - but whether he warrants being quite so short in the betting, is a different matter…
Farclas and Home By the Sea are the next 2 in the betting - and they also have limited experience over fences.
Farclas has also only completed in 4 chases - which is one more than Home by the Lea.
That said, Farclass did run well in a big field chase last time; Whilst Home by the Lea won a competitive 11 runner chase on his penultimate outing.
Like Locks Corner, they have to be included on any short list, simply because they could be very well handicapped.
That said, Farclas is held by Dunvegan on their most recent run at Punchestown, behind Daly Tiger.
That was a very strong race and Dunvegan finished a place in front of Farclas.
Both were making their seasonal debuts - but the suspicion is that Farclas would have derived most benefit from the run, as he had been absent for nearly 18 months.
Castlebawn West actually finished just ahead of them both (in third place).
The issue with him is simply that there is very little wriggle room, off his current mark of 148.
Ten Ten is the final one of interest.
He was a fair novice chaser last season, when campaigned mainly over the minimum trip.
His sole win came when he was stepped up to 2m4f…
He showed distinct promise on his seasonal return, over hurdles at Naas; whilst 5lb claimer, Simon Torrens, taking over in the saddle from Luke Dempsey, is another eye catching move.
He is also owned by JP McManus, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting, in relation to Lock’s Corner.
1:10
This race provides Chacan Pour Soi with an opportunity to avenge his defeat in last years renewal.
He was sent off an odds on favourite that day - but was unable to hold off A Plus Tard.
In fairness, he was conceding race fitness, to a very useful animal - so he lost little in defeat.
Non-the-less, it is interesting that Willie Mullins has got a prep run into him this time.
That was at Cork, earlier this month, when he came home a relatively comfortable winner.
That form alone, wouldn’t be good enough to win tomorrows race - but apparently Chacan was only about 90% fit.
Presumably he will be much closer to 100% tomorrow - and his overall level of form makes him the one to beat.
That said, it’s no formality that he will be able to get the better of Notebook.
He developed into a high class novice chaser last season, with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
He returned at Naas last month and looked as good as ever, when defeating Fakir D’oudaries.
On official ratings, he still has 9lb to find with Chacan - but I suspect the gap between the pair isn’t that big…
Put the Kettle On is the other one to consider.
She was a surprise winner of last seasons Arkle - and managed another win at Cheltenham, on her seasonal reappearance.
There appears to be little between her and Notebook - and both still have potential for improvement.
Of the other 3: then Annamix and Castlegrace Paddy look a few pounds shy of the required level: whilst Le Richebourg has yet to prove that he has recovered from the injury which kept him off the course for almost 2 years…
1:45
The second grade 1 on the card, looks a lot harder to solve…
Ballyadam and Appreciate It are vying for favouritism - and they certainly look the ones to beat.
Both were very useful bumper horses (Appreciate It finished runner up in last seasons Cheltenham bumper) - and are unbeaten in their runs over hurdles, this season.
Ballyadam is already a grade 1 winner over hurdles, having taken the Royal Bond, at Fairyhouse, at the end of November.
He was expected to win that day - but wasn’t massively impressive in justifying odds of 8/15.
Appreciate It has only run once over hurdles - when winning a Cork novice hurdle, at odds of 1/12.
His position at the head of the market, is down purely, to his bumper form…
In truth, neither of them look completely bomb proof - though picking one to beat them, isn’t easy…
Call me Lyreen could be the one based on ratings. However he doesn’t seem to quite have the potential of one or two of the others,..
Keskonrisk, Thedevilscoachman and Irascible have all won their sole runs over hurdles - and fall into the category of ‘could be anything’.
Thedevilscoachman is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - but in truth, this is a race where so much guesswork is required, a watching brief is almost certainly the best call…
2:55
I’m a bit surprised to see Locks Corner installed as favourite for this race.
He is trained in the UK by Jonjo O’Neil - and I was under the impression that travel between the UK and Ireland, was currently banned !
Presumably he was sent over last week and has been stabled locally…
In terms of his chance in the race - then the fact he has been targeted at it and is owned by JP McManus are clearly big positives.
He is very unexposed (just 4 runs over fences) - so still has plenty of scope for improvement. On the flip side, he lacks chasing experience, for a race of this nature.
He clearly has a chance - but whether he warrants being quite so short in the betting, is a different matter…
Farclas and Home By the Sea are the next 2 in the betting - and they also have limited experience over fences.
Farclas has also only completed in 4 chases - which is one more than Home by the Lea.
That said, Farclass did run well in a big field chase last time; Whilst Home by the Lea won a competitive 11 runner chase on his penultimate outing.
Like Locks Corner, they have to be included on any short list, simply because they could be very well handicapped.
That said, Farclas is held by Dunvegan on their most recent run at Punchestown, behind Daly Tiger.
That was a very strong race and Dunvegan finished a place in front of Farclas.
Both were making their seasonal debuts - but the suspicion is that Farclas would have derived most benefit from the run, as he had been absent for nearly 18 months.
Castlebawn West actually finished just ahead of them both (in third place).
The issue with him is simply that there is very little wriggle room, off his current mark of 148.
Ten Ten is the final one of interest.
He was a fair novice chaser last season, when campaigned mainly over the minimum trip.
His sole win came when he was stepped up to 2m4f…
He showed distinct promise on his seasonal return, over hurdles at Naas; whilst 5lb claimer, Simon Torrens, taking over in the saddle from Luke Dempsey, is another eye catching move.
He is also owned by JP McManus, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting, in relation to Lock’s Corner.
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