Todays Suggested bets
Most of the early markets aren't sufficiently robust for me to issue at this point.
I'll therefore look to send out further bets, in an hours time...
Matrix bets
Kempton
3:05
Erick le Rouge 5 units win 12/1
Best bets
Kempton
3:05
Erick le Rouge 0.5pt win 12/1
Todays Suggested bets
The markets still aren't as strong as I'd like - but I have to issue at some point..!
Matrix bets
Kempton
1:20
Gumball 3 units win 6/1
Elusive Belle 1 unit win 14/1
Tamaroc du Matin 1 unit win 14/1
2:30
Duc des Geneivres 3 units win 6/1
3:40
Torigni 5 units win 11/2
Leopardstown
1:45
The Devilscoachman 2 units win 14/1
2:55
Ten Ten 5 units win 11/1 (FP 12/1)
Best bets
Kempton
3:40
Torigni 0.5pt win 11/2
Leopardstown
2:55
Ten Ten 0.5pt win 11/1 (FP 12/1)
The weather has messed things up a bit today: obviously via the abandonment of both Chepstow and Limerick - but also by changing the ground at the other 3 venues…
That tends to lead to non runners (which can affect race shapes) - and also gives me the issue of trying to figure out how the ground will actually be riding.
Suffice to say, the Live thread may once provide the best way of tackling things…
Very weak markets (no doubt caused by the uncertainty) also didn’t help with the issuing of bets.
I’ve ended up with 3 Best bets on the day - along with a few additional Matrix bets…
Kempton
I’m prepared to take on Shishkin in the 1:20.
I do rate the horse - and he is definitely the one to beat in the Arkle - but he could be vulnerable today…
Gumball is the key horse in the race. He will attack from the front and put pressure on Shishkins jumping.
If Shishkin cracks, then anything could happen (depending on how fast Gumball has gone !).
In that scenario, the most likely outcome is that Gumball makes all. However, it is also worth covering on Elusive Belle and Tamaroc du Mathan, in case the race collapses.
I’ve attempted to represent the above, via a series of bets for the Matrix !
I was hoping to side with Emmpressive Lady in the 1:55 - but a couple of non runners have messed up her price.
I’d be prepared to take 5/1 - but not much less…
I think Altior is vulnerable in the 2:30.
If the ground had remained quick, then Sceau Royal would have been the one - but rain has probably spoilt his chance.
I don’t like Duc des Genevries as much - but he will handle the ground and has the form to go close.
Not quite a Best bet - but worthy of support via the Matrix.
I could have read this wrong (!) - but I’m quite keen on Erick le Rouge.
The start point is his form around Kempton - which is different class to his form elsewhere.
What I find really interesting, is that he had a reported breathing problem on his first run of the season - but then ran again without any action being taken.
As a result, he has been dropped a total of 4lb - and he now returns to Kempton on the back of a wind op !
He also tends to run best after a break - so the enforced absence is a positive.
The slight doubt is with regard to the trip - but it’s a conscious decision by his connections - and it makes sense, in terms of the horse needing a longer trip as he gets older.
If I’ve got him wrong, then anything could win - though rain won’t particularly help the chances of either Double Shuffle or Adrien du Pont.
Despite 13 runners, I find it hard to look beyond the 4 markets leaders in the last.
Cadzand could be anything - but the price reflects that: whilst Hang in There has also been well found - and certainly comes with risks.
Torgini is the solid option. His run at Wetherby was very good - and if he has improved for that, he will set a high standard.
Wetherby
I wanted to side with Marracudja in the 2:10 - but not at 4/1 (or less).
First Flow is a huge danger - whilst Marracudja shouldn’t really beat The King of May, based on their latest runs, at Newbury.
I was hoping for 6/1 - might have accepted 5/1 - but 4/1 is too short…
Leopardstown
There was a slight temptation to take on Chacan Pour Soi with Notebook in the 1:10 - but I’ve resisted.
I do think Chacan is top class - and I’m not convinced that Notebook is (though he may be !).
If I thought Chacan might not be at his best, then it would be worth a risk - but he shouldn’t have any excuses today and therefore, should really win…
It’s a bit of a left field shot, but I think Thedevilscoachman is worth siding with in the 1:45.
I might be completely wrong - but it’s a very difficult race to assess - and there are question marks over both of the market leaders.
In truth, there are plenty of options to take them on with - but I like Thedevilscoachman best and figure he is worth covering in the Matrix.
I was very disappointed to see Andy Holding tip Ten Ten in the 2:55.
The industry tipsters tend to massively skew the early markets - so if they put up one I fancy, then it always makes my job even harder.
As a consequence, I considered not putting him up - but I do like his profile…
He looks to have been targeted at the race: with most of his runs being over a shorter distance; a prep run over hurdles and booking of a crack apprentice, all subtle (or not so subtle !) signs…
Obviously you also need luck in these kind of races - but if he gets some, then he looks the one to beat.
No comments:
Post a Comment