Tuesday, 29 December 2020

Dec 28th - Preview for Leopardstown

 The meetings scheduled for tomorrow at both Leicester and Fontwell, have already been abandoned - and there’s not much of interest on the Catterick card. 


The attention will therefore be very much on Ireland.

However, there’s got to be a strong possibility that Limerick will again be lost - and even if it’s not, then there is only one race of interest…

As a consequence, tomorrows action is likely to be all about Leopardstown.

Thankfully it’s a good card - featuring a couple of outstanding races.

I’ve previewed both of them - along with the Pertemps qualifier.

A relatively quiet day for me, then..!


Leopardstown

12:40


As I often say, Pertemps qualifiers are never easy races to solve - and this one is a real rats nest !
I could probably short list half a dozen horses and still not get one in the frame !
Hopefully that won’t be the case, but it should give you an indication of my confidence level !

Unexpected Depth is the first one of interest.
He was a good winner of a 3 mile handicap hurdle at Punchestown, on his most recent outing.
That was a particularly noteworthy effort, as it was his first run in over a year.
He’s been raised 8lb for his efforts - but as he’s still only 6, there must be every possibility that he is still improving.
This is a tougher race, but he still looks to have a good chance.
Morosini is the next one of interest.
He is owned by JP McManus - and the booking of Mark Walsh, suggests he’s the owners number one hope in the race.
He was quite progressive last season - and ran a fair race on his most recent outing at Naas.
He’s only 5, so should still have plenty of improvement in him.
Mortal is better known as a chaser - but he is of interest in this race, because he is rated 26lb lower over hurdles !
That’s a massive amount - and if he can run anywhere near his chase rating, he should really be the one to beat.
That said, he doesn’t appear to be Joseph O’Briens main hope in the race.
Judged on jockey bookings, that appears to be Anything Will Do.
He’s another who is switching to hurdles, having recently run over fences. However, his form over fences can’t match that of Mortal…
The Bosses Oscar is the final one on the short-list.
He finished fifth in the Martin Pipe hurdle, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and was runner up in a fair race at Navan, on his most recent outing.
He was well beaten, but wasn’t disgraced behind a much improved winner.
He’s only been raised 1lb for that run - and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t again go close tomorrow.

1:15


The first of 2 cracking grade 1 contests on the card, this one looks more open than the betting implies…

Sire de Berlais has been installed a short price favourite for the race.
Whilst I don’t dispute he has a decent chance, I wouldn’t make him a 2/1 shot.
His win in the Pertemps final at last seasons Cheltenham festival, was very good - but not grade 1 form.
And whilst he was again impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Navan, he probably didn’t have a great deal to beat.
In fairness, he should be sharper for that run - and will be better suited by tomorrows 3 mile trip.
Ronald Pump was sent off favourite for the Navan race and still had half a chance when he fell at the final flight.
He followed that up by almost beating Honeysuckle at Fairyhouse - and that is top class form.
He also finished runner up in last years Stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - and on both pieces of form, he holds Bacardys.
That said, Barcardys was making his debut at Navan, and has very good course form at Leopardstown (he’s won 3 of the 4 times he has completed the course).
Fury Road was a top class novice last season - and he managed to finish third in a red hot renewal of the Albert Bartlett.
The form of that race has been franked in no uncertain terms this season, by the exploits of both the race winner, Monkfish and the fourth placed, Thyme Hill.
Fury Road has also managed to win his only subsequent race - though he wasn’t massively impressive when getting the better of relatively modest Dewcup.
However, he still remains a horse of great potential.
There are plenty outside of the market leaders, who can also be given half chances…
The Storyteller is quite closely linked with Sire de Berlais, on their Cheltenham run; whilst French Dynamite finished just half a length behind Sire de Barlais, at Navan last time.
Flooring Porter is a fast improving horse, who hacked up in a decent handicap at Navan, earlier this month.
It will be quite a jump for him into Grade 1 company - but he’s only 5, and so should still have plenty of scope for improvement.

2:25


This is undoubtedly the best race run so far this season (and it will take a bit of beating !).
14 runners - 10 of whom are rated 160 or above.
Chases don’t get much better than that !

Minella Indo heads the betting - and it’s hard to argue with that.
He’s a young chaser on the up. Narrowly denied by Champ in last seasons RSA chase, he has comfortably won his 2 chases this season, suggesting that he has again improved.
He’ll need to produce a personal best to win this race - but that’s a distinct possibility.
That said, he was only a length in front of Allaho when the pair filled the places behind Champ - and it’s been very close between the pair on the 3 other occasions  they have met.
Minella Indo does seem to be the slightly more talented of the pair - but there’s clearly not a lot between them.
Certainly it was not surprising to see the early 10/1 quotes about Allaho snapped up - no doubt helped by the horse being tipped in a variety of places !
Second favourite for the race, is Delta Work.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and I’ve little doubt that he will have been primed for a repeat.
He ran poorly on his seasonal debut at Down Royal, at the end of October - but I suspect that is irrelevant.
Of far more significance is the fact that Jack Kennedy has chosen to ride him - thus turning down both Presenting Percy and Samcro.
Tomorrows race is the acid test for Presenting Percy.
He seemed to have the world at his feet, when he won the 2018 RSA chase - but has generally disappointed since then.
He switched into the care of Gordon Elliott over the summer - and his last time defeat of Kemboy suggested that the fire may still be burning.
We’ll find out either way, tomorrow…
A Plus Tard is another fascinating runner, stepped up to 3 miles for the first time since his novice days.
His form over 2m4f is top class - so if the extra distance brings about some improvement, he could well have a say in things.
Samcro, Fakir Doudaries, Melon, Tornado Flyer and Easy Game, are equally fascinating contenders.
All 5 were novices last season - and are stepping up in trip.
They each have plenty to prove - but equally, could make massive improvement.
Samcro is possibly the most interesting of the quintet - but none of them can be categorically ruled out.

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