Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Ascot
3:00
Flying Angel 2 units win 14/1
3:35
Benson 6 units win 15/2
Belfast Banter 2 units win 12/1
Haydock
2:40
Lord Napier 6 units win 8/1
Sojourn 2 units win 3/1
Best bets
Ascot
3:35
Benson 0.5pt win 15/2
Haydock
2:40
Lord Napier 0.5pt win 8/1
Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Haydock
11:50
Chti Balko 10 units win 4/1
3:15
Label des Obeaux 5 units win 17/2
Queenofhearts 2 units win 4/1
Best bets
Haydock
11:50
Chti Balko 1pt win 4/1 (MP 3/1)
3:15
Label des Obeaux 0.5pt win 17/2 (MP 7/1)
Matrix bets
Haydock
11:50
Chti Balko 10 units win 4/1
3:15
Label des Obeaux 5 units win 17/2
Queenofhearts 2 units win 4/1
Best bets
Haydock
11:50
Chti Balko 1pt win 4/1 (MP 3/1)
3:15
Label des Obeaux 0.5pt win 17/2 (MP 7/1)
It’s become apparent over the past few weeks, that I need a
bit of flexibility, with regard to the time I issue the bets…
I started the season with the aim of issuing at 10:00 - but spent the first few weeks, just watching prices pointlessly ebbing away in the hour between 9:00 and 10:00.
I therefore switched to 9:00 - but it’s clear that some of the markets can’t cope with me tipping at that time (the prices instantly crash).
As a consequence, I’ve switched to a hybrid solution: 10:00 on the days when I expect the markets to be fragile - and 10:00 on the days when I expect them to be more robust.
However, I learnt today - that it’s not simply down to days of the week..!
There is no way I could have issued a couple of todays bets at 9:00 - and expected more than a handful of you to get on.
As a result, I split the issuing - and I hope/feel that it went OK…
I’m conscious that I don’t want to be messing people about.
I’m sure that most of you have other things that you want to do during your days.
I’ll therefore just stick with the 2 times: just after 9:00 if I think the markets can handle it: otherwise, just after 10:00.
Obviously, I’ll advise in advance, which timings I’ll be using on a particular day…
In terms of todays bets - then there are quite a few !
Unlike yesterday, opportunities were plentiful - it was simply a case of picking the best ones.
Hopefully, I’ve chosen right….
Haydock
I didn’t preview the opening race on the Haydock card - so apologies for that.
Producing the previews early, means that I also have to commit early to the races where I think I’m most likely to find bets.
Obviously my focus is on the biggest races of the day - most of which are on Terrestrial TV. However, there are always one or two borderline calls.
That was certainly the case at both Haydock and Ascot day - where, if I had the time, I could easily have previewed every race on both cards…
In terms of the Haydock opener, then I’m pretty keen on Chti Balko…
He caught my eye last time, on his seasonal debut at Bangor.
He ran well that day, despite finishing last - yet has been dropped 5lb in the handicap.
That’s generous, as it puts him just 3lb above his last winning mark, when he bolted up by 10 lengths.
Whilst it’s an apprentice race, his jockey, Theo Gillard, is still able to claim 6lb - which is at least 3lb more than every other jockey in the race (and effectively takes him back down to this last winning mark).
The big attraction with Chti Balko, is his ability to handle the Haydock mud.
He’s won 3 times previously, on heavy ground at Haydock.
Tegerak was making the market last night - but he’s an enigmatic sort, who could easily throw in the towel, when the going gets tough.
He’s now been replaced at the head of the betting by Ebony Jewel.
He’s a more reliable sort - but I’m happy to take him on with Chti Balko.
Whatever, I’ll be very disappointed/surprised, if Chti doesn’t run his race and go very close.
Fingers crossed !
In the 2:05 race I like War Lord best - but the form of the Tizzard stable, is a worry.
He’s drifted out to the point where he could be worth a risk - and I’ll certainly be monitoring him closely, on the Live thread.
Away from him, a case can be made for most of the others - but equally, they all have question marks to overcome…
On hurdles form Lord Napier is handicapped to win the 2:40.
He will also handle the ground - and the Peter Bowen stable is now in god form (at long last !).
He’s the only horse that he sends to the course - and the only ride for James Bowen.
The fear is that Sojourn is simply better class. He will relish conditions - so if he does have 10lb in hand of his mark, he will be hard to beat.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.
I think it is worth taking a risk on Label des Obeaux in the last.
It strikes me that he has been primed for this race - with the 10lb claimer on top, the telling sign.
I watched him riding in a couple of recent races and he looks tidy enough to me.
That being the case, most of the 10lb will be a gift.
Queenofhearts has drifted sufficiently (and sufficiently early !) to warrant a saver for the Matrix.
Ascot
After lots of thought, I decide to leave the 1:50 race alone.
I’ll be amazed if Saint de Vassy doesn’t run well - but less amazed if he doesn't win.
There are dangers all over the place - the tricky bit is picking out the right one.
I’ll backed him myself, at 13/2 - and I’ve saved on Gardefort - but I can see at least 4 others who could win.
Therefore, I’ve decided to leave the race alone, it terms of official bets.
I was never going to get involved in the Long Walk hurdle (2:25).
I have backed Portrush Ted - but it was EW, as I’ll be surprised if he can beat either of the market leaders (who both look very solid).
Unfortunately, there have already been 2 NRs - and one more will take the place terms down to 2, which will mess up my bet !
The Conditional strikes me as the most likely winner of the 3:00 - and he may even reach an acceptable price (another one to monitor on the Live thread).
However, the 10/3 currently available with the bookies, is too short.
Flying Angel is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s not the most consistent - but has won off the same mark in the past.
He’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I’m pretty keen on Benson in the finale.
I could be wrong, but I reckon he could still have a stone in hand of his mark.
He was right in the mix at Sandown in February, with a host of 150 rated horses, when he unseated.
There was a chance that was a fluke - but he effort last time, strongly suggested it wasn’t.
Off 137 today, he could possibly bolt up…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Belfast Banter.
The recent record of Irish horses in big handicaps is ridiculous - and he has the right kind of profile to mess things up for Benson.
I’ll be disappointed if that is the case - but he has to be covered in the Matrix.
I started the season with the aim of issuing at 10:00 - but spent the first few weeks, just watching prices pointlessly ebbing away in the hour between 9:00 and 10:00.
I therefore switched to 9:00 - but it’s clear that some of the markets can’t cope with me tipping at that time (the prices instantly crash).
As a consequence, I’ve switched to a hybrid solution: 10:00 on the days when I expect the markets to be fragile - and 10:00 on the days when I expect them to be more robust.
However, I learnt today - that it’s not simply down to days of the week..!
There is no way I could have issued a couple of todays bets at 9:00 - and expected more than a handful of you to get on.
As a result, I split the issuing - and I hope/feel that it went OK…
I’m conscious that I don’t want to be messing people about.
I’m sure that most of you have other things that you want to do during your days.
I’ll therefore just stick with the 2 times: just after 9:00 if I think the markets can handle it: otherwise, just after 10:00.
Obviously, I’ll advise in advance, which timings I’ll be using on a particular day…
In terms of todays bets - then there are quite a few !
Unlike yesterday, opportunities were plentiful - it was simply a case of picking the best ones.
Hopefully, I’ve chosen right….
Haydock
I didn’t preview the opening race on the Haydock card - so apologies for that.
Producing the previews early, means that I also have to commit early to the races where I think I’m most likely to find bets.
Obviously my focus is on the biggest races of the day - most of which are on Terrestrial TV. However, there are always one or two borderline calls.
That was certainly the case at both Haydock and Ascot day - where, if I had the time, I could easily have previewed every race on both cards…
In terms of the Haydock opener, then I’m pretty keen on Chti Balko…
He caught my eye last time, on his seasonal debut at Bangor.
He ran well that day, despite finishing last - yet has been dropped 5lb in the handicap.
That’s generous, as it puts him just 3lb above his last winning mark, when he bolted up by 10 lengths.
Whilst it’s an apprentice race, his jockey, Theo Gillard, is still able to claim 6lb - which is at least 3lb more than every other jockey in the race (and effectively takes him back down to this last winning mark).
The big attraction with Chti Balko, is his ability to handle the Haydock mud.
He’s won 3 times previously, on heavy ground at Haydock.
Tegerak was making the market last night - but he’s an enigmatic sort, who could easily throw in the towel, when the going gets tough.
He’s now been replaced at the head of the betting by Ebony Jewel.
He’s a more reliable sort - but I’m happy to take him on with Chti Balko.
Whatever, I’ll be very disappointed/surprised, if Chti doesn’t run his race and go very close.
Fingers crossed !
In the 2:05 race I like War Lord best - but the form of the Tizzard stable, is a worry.
He’s drifted out to the point where he could be worth a risk - and I’ll certainly be monitoring him closely, on the Live thread.
Away from him, a case can be made for most of the others - but equally, they all have question marks to overcome…
On hurdles form Lord Napier is handicapped to win the 2:40.
He will also handle the ground - and the Peter Bowen stable is now in god form (at long last !).
He’s the only horse that he sends to the course - and the only ride for James Bowen.
The fear is that Sojourn is simply better class. He will relish conditions - so if he does have 10lb in hand of his mark, he will be hard to beat.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.
I think it is worth taking a risk on Label des Obeaux in the last.
It strikes me that he has been primed for this race - with the 10lb claimer on top, the telling sign.
I watched him riding in a couple of recent races and he looks tidy enough to me.
That being the case, most of the 10lb will be a gift.
Queenofhearts has drifted sufficiently (and sufficiently early !) to warrant a saver for the Matrix.
Ascot
After lots of thought, I decide to leave the 1:50 race alone.
I’ll be amazed if Saint de Vassy doesn’t run well - but less amazed if he doesn't win.
There are dangers all over the place - the tricky bit is picking out the right one.
I’ll backed him myself, at 13/2 - and I’ve saved on Gardefort - but I can see at least 4 others who could win.
Therefore, I’ve decided to leave the race alone, it terms of official bets.
I was never going to get involved in the Long Walk hurdle (2:25).
I have backed Portrush Ted - but it was EW, as I’ll be surprised if he can beat either of the market leaders (who both look very solid).
Unfortunately, there have already been 2 NRs - and one more will take the place terms down to 2, which will mess up my bet !
The Conditional strikes me as the most likely winner of the 3:00 - and he may even reach an acceptable price (another one to monitor on the Live thread).
However, the 10/3 currently available with the bookies, is too short.
Flying Angel is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s not the most consistent - but has won off the same mark in the past.
He’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I’m pretty keen on Benson in the finale.
I could be wrong, but I reckon he could still have a stone in hand of his mark.
He was right in the mix at Sandown in February, with a host of 150 rated horses, when he unseated.
There was a chance that was a fluke - but he effort last time, strongly suggested it wasn’t.
Off 137 today, he could possibly bolt up…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Belfast Banter.
The recent record of Irish horses in big handicaps is ridiculous - and he has the right kind of profile to mess things up for Benson.
I’ll be disappointed if that is the case - but he has to be covered in the Matrix.
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