The ground at Ascot this afternoon, looked soft without appearing to be desperate.
However, I would expect it to be a fair bit worse tomorrow, on the back of todays action and with a bit more rain due to fall.My expectation is that it will be worse still at Haydock, where apparently they’ve barely had a dry day in the past fortnight.
Suffice to say, it’s going to be a case of trying to find the fittest, as opposed to the most talented, horses..!
The 6 races televised on terrestrail TV are much more suitable for betting, than those on offer today.
I’d certainly be hopeful of finding a few bets - provided prices hold up….
Here are my thoughts on the best races from both Ascot and Haydock…
Ascot
1:50
Saint de Vassey has been installed early favourite for this - and he looks the most solid option in the race.
He was a good winner last time at Exeter, on his seasonal debut.
He has been raised 10lb for that win - and steps up in grade - but he looks to have potential for further improvement.
Trip and ground should be perfect - and I expect him to get an attacking ride from David Bass.
He looks the one to beat.
Bennys King ran well at this course on his penultimate outing last season, when second to Domain De L’isle.
He will be running off a mark 2lb higher tomorrow - which will make things tough for him.
However, he’s a big, strong horse, so I doubt he’ll have much issue carrying the weight.
He cuts back in trip a little tomorrow - which is a slight concern. However, the very heavy ground is likely to ensure it is still a test of stamina.
That may not sure Early du Lemo, as he is quite head strong - and unproven over further than 2 miles.
He’ll love the heavy ground - but whether he’ll get home, is a different matter.
Gardefort is the potential fly in the ointment…
He is nearing his 12th birthday and hasn’t shown anything for over 2 years: however he has dropped 21lb during that time and is now rated way below his last winning mark.
2m3f in heavy ground will be fine for him - and if Venetia has him straight - and sufficient ability remains - then he is likely to go very close.
2:25
The staying hurdle division is particularly fascinating this season - and as way the case at Newbury last month, most of the main contenders for the title of ‘best staying hurdler’ run in this race.
Thyme Hill and Paisley Park head the market, for the re-match of their Newbury duel.
Thyme Hill came out best that day - but Paisley Park is 3lb better of for a one and a half length beating.
He was also probably more in need of the run - so it’s not too hard to see him reversing the form.
That said, it’s likely to come down to which one of the pair handles conditions best - and that’s not easy to call…
Paisley Park was taken out of the corresponding race 12 months ago, on account of heavy ground - so if connections are consistent, he won’t run tomorrow.
Regardless, I’d slightly favour Thyme Hill - not that it’s just a 2 horse race…
Roksana and Main Fact are a couple of fascinating additions to the ‘battle’ - and both can be given a chance.
Roksana looked better than ever, when winning at Wetherby on the last day of October. She will handle the ground - and the 7lb sex allowance that she receives from the geldings, will always make her dangerous.
Main Fact steps out of handicap company having won his last 6 hurdle races (plus 3 on the flat, for good measure !).
He’s progressed from winning a class 4 race off a mark of 104 - but I suspect this will prove a step too far.
That said, he will relish very heavy ground - and if it does turn into a complete war, he’s likely to be staying on when others have had enough (assuming he’s not tailed off at that point !).
There are some interesting outsiders - including last years winner, The Worlds End (who is a 33/1 shot !).
The most interesting of them all though, is possibly Portrush Ted.
Whilst he’ll be 9 in a less than a month, he’s only run 4 times over hurdles - but he’s won 3 of those races.
The latest was a handicap at Sandown, off a mark of just 139. That suggests he has a lot to do - and on ratings, he does. However, I suspect he is a seriously talented animal - and could be worth a small speculative EW play at around 40/1.
3:00
It’s hard to argue with The Conditional as the favourite for this…
He was a good winner at last seasons Cheltenham festival, and came there swinging, in the Ladbrokes trophy on his seasonal debut, 3 weeks ago.
He didn’t quite go through with his effort that day - but it is unlikely that he was 100% ready.
I would certainly expect him to improve for the outing - and a 1lb drop in his rating, is a bit of a gift.
He will have no issue with the ground - so the main question is whether he has recovered from a relatively hard race, just 21 days ago.
We won’t know on that score until it’s too late - but if he has, then 7/2 is a very fair price…
Espoir de Guye steps up to 3 miles tomorrow, having won well at the course over 2m4f on his re-appearance.
That was his second win at Ascot, so he clearly like the course - and whilst he’s unproven over the trip, there is no reason to think he won’t stay.
The question is whether he has the ability to again step up in class - but he’s only 6 and whilst he continues to improve, it’s impossible to know where his limit lies…
Regal Encore has a ridiculous course record, having won at Ascot 4 times (including twice in this race).
He won over course and distance, at the end of October - and a 5lb rating rise isn’t overly harsh.
However, he will shortly be 13 - and time will catch up with him sooner, rather than later.
He’s hard to dismiss - but is also quite hard to support..!
Flying Angels only win in a handicap chase, came off the same mark he races off tomorrow - and at Ascot.
He comfortably beat Sky Pirate last November - and whilst that was over a shorter trip than he runs over tomorrow, he should stay the extra 3 furlongs.
He was certainly staying on well last time, when fourth at Aintree - and he should handle the ground.
The final one of interest, is Enfant Roi.
He is making his UK debut for Sophie Leach - and is impossible to properly assess.
However, he has plenty of winning form on heavy ground in his native France - and this is an interesting race for his UK debut.
He gets in with a feather weight - and whilst he couldn’t be supported with confidence, he is probably worth keeping on side.
3:35
As I said on Monday, when I looked at this race for the midweek ante post thread in the forum, I will have to take on Buzz…
He was an impressive winner over course and distance, last time - but he got an 11lb rating rise for that, which means he has to carry top weight tomorrow, in heavy ground.
As an ex flat horse, I just can’t see him being up to that…
Nicky Henderson is now also responsible for the second favourite: At Time Flies by.
He has a completely different profile, having only run 5 times in his life - and just 3 times over hurdles.
The issue with him will be inexperience, in such a big field race…
With those 2 out of the way (!) we can concentrate on trying to find the winner…
Benson remains the first port of call.
I was really impressed with him when he won last time at Sandown - and although he got a 10lb rise for his efforts, I think it was warranted.
His new mark is still only 137 - and that doesn’t strike me as overly high for a horse of his ability.
He’s proven on the ground - and whilst he doesn’t have big field experience, his last run was in a relatively competitive race.
He still strikes me as the one to beat.
Malaya definitely has a chance.
She has good form at Ascot and in very soft ground - so will have no issue with conditions.
He mark looks tight - but the fitting of a tongue tie may bring about some improvement and I would certainly expect her to run well.
Lightly Squeezed also has a chance - though there are a few more question marks over him.
His handicap mark is probably OK - but the ground is a slight doubt, whilst a wind op and tongue tie can be read either way…
Harambe and Oakley are similar to Malaya, in so much as there is no reason why they won’t run their races and go close - but equally, they will need to find a bit of improvement from somewhere, if they are to win.
Belfast Banter is impossible to assess.
He travels over from Ireland for Peter Fahey - a man not renowned for his UK raids.
That said, it was a similar story last week with Chatham Street Lad - and he bolted up !
I don’t really associate Peter Fahey will gambles but it’s a very interesting move, to bring over a novice to run in a race like this.
Close studying of his form, doesn’t really persuade me that he’ll be up to the job - but despite that, he’ll definitely be covered in the Matrix, if I use it on this race !
Haydock
2:05
All things being equal, I’d be quite keen on War Lord in this…
He won an arguably better race over course and distance, last time - and a 7lb rating rise doesn’t appear overly harsh.
Certainly, he appears to be a progressive young horse - and he should have no issue with the likely heavy ground.
The issue is that he’s trained by Colin Tizzard - and his horses haven’t been running well for most of the season.
You could maybe take a risk at a big price - but at 3/1, in a competitive handicap, you want most things in your favour.
The trouble is, this doesn’t look a particularly strong race.
Alberts Back is the obvious alternative, following his comfortable last time out win at Wetherby.
However, he is now 5lb higher - and this is a stronger race. He’s also unproven on bottom-less ground…
The ground is the main worry with Our Power, who otherwise would have a fair chance of reversing last time form with War Lord, on 6lb better terms.
The Last Day will cope with the ground - and is well handicapped based on his chase form.
However, that is the issue with him - he’s a chaser and this race is over hurdles !
McGowans Pass will relish the heavy ground - but the trip is an unknown.
He’s also tackling stronger opposition than normal.
Electron Blue could certainly outrun his odds - as he is reasonably handicapped and should handle the ground.
However, he’s another for whom this is a step up in class and it remains to be seen whether he is up to it...
2:40
It’s not too surprising to see that Sojourn has been backed into favouritism for this.
He was a hugely impressive winner at Carlisle last time - and thoroughly deserved his subsequent 11lb rating rise.
He’ll relish conditions - and whilst this race represents a step up in grade, he’s only 7 and clearly improving fast.
Hill Sixteen is disputing favouritism with him - but his case doesn’t look as strong.
He was as impressive as Sojourn, when winning at Ffos Las - but that didn’t look as strong a race and he has a further half mile to travel tomorrow.
In fairness he did win over 3 miles last time - but that was a hurdle race on quick ground, so a very different test.
It’s not that he won’t be able to handle it - just that we don’t know - and you need something in the price to compensate for the uncertainty.
Enqad has been installed third favourite - on his first run over fences in the UK.
He’s impossible to assess, having only run twice over hurdles for current connections.
He has won over fences in his native France - and he’ll probably handle the ground - but whether he’ll relish 3 miles in the Haydock mud, is anyones guess…
Lord Napier caught my eye last time, in a decent novice chase a Chepstow.
He only managed to finish second that day - but may well have faced a near impossible task, trying to give the winner 10lb.
Based on is best form over hurdles, he is well handicapped on a mark of 132. And whilst he’s unproven over the trip on heavy ground - there’s a fair chance he will cope with it.
Salty Boy is the final one of interest.
He’s hard to construct a solid case for - but I do have a suspicion he can win off his current mark.
I actually had a suspicion that he could win off a mark 3lb higher - which is why I made him a Best bet last time, at Ascot !
He wasn’t up to that task - and I can’t be sure he will relish tomorrows test - but he will definitely remain on my radar, regardless…
3:15
I was hoping that Queenofhearts might be a price in this…
She’s not run for nearly 2 years - and returning over 3 miles in the Haydock mud, is quite an ask (particularly as she’s never previously tackled the trip).
However, despite the doubts, she’s be installed the 11/4 fav - and if she does drift, the worry will be that it’s due to fitness concerns.
If she is fit - and does stay the trip - then I suspect she has the class to win from her current mark.
I’m not sure I will want to take less than 3/1 though…
The trouble is, it looks a weak race.
No Hiding Place is second favourite on the back of a win at Carlisle.
However, he’s 2lb higher tomorrow - and it’s a stronger contest.
Goodbye Dancer would have a big chance if he bounced back to form. However that was the case when he ran at Cheltenham a week ago.
He showed little then - and I doubt a 2lb rating drop will make much difference.
Label des Obeaux is dropping down the handicap - and is likely to win one sooner rather than later.
I thought he had a chance last time at Market Rasen - but he didn’t show a great deal.
However, he should be a little fitter for that: has been dropped a further 3lb in the ratings - and, perhaps most interestingly, has a 10lb claimer in the saddle.
That does suggest some intent - even if I’m not entirely convinced that he wants bottomless ground…
2:05
All things being equal, I’d be quite keen on War Lord in this…
He won an arguably better race over course and distance, last time - and a 7lb rating rise doesn’t appear overly harsh.
Certainly, he appears to be a progressive young horse - and he should have no issue with the likely heavy ground.
The issue is that he’s trained by Colin Tizzard - and his horses haven’t been running well for most of the season.
You could maybe take a risk at a big price - but at 3/1, in a competitive handicap, you want most things in your favour.
The trouble is, this doesn’t look a particularly strong race.
Alberts Back is the obvious alternative, following his comfortable last time out win at Wetherby.
However, he is now 5lb higher - and this is a stronger race. He’s also unproven on bottom-less ground…
The ground is the main worry with Our Power, who otherwise would have a fair chance of reversing last time form with War Lord, on 6lb better terms.
The Last Day will cope with the ground - and is well handicapped based on his chase form.
However, that is the issue with him - he’s a chaser and this race is over hurdles !
McGowans Pass will relish the heavy ground - but the trip is an unknown.
He’s also tackling stronger opposition than normal.
Electron Blue could certainly outrun his odds - as he is reasonably handicapped and should handle the ground.
However, he’s another for whom this is a step up in class and it remains to be seen whether he is up to it...
2:40
It’s not too surprising to see that Sojourn has been backed into favouritism for this.
He was a hugely impressive winner at Carlisle last time - and thoroughly deserved his subsequent 11lb rating rise.
He’ll relish conditions - and whilst this race represents a step up in grade, he’s only 7 and clearly improving fast.
Hill Sixteen is disputing favouritism with him - but his case doesn’t look as strong.
He was as impressive as Sojourn, when winning at Ffos Las - but that didn’t look as strong a race and he has a further half mile to travel tomorrow.
In fairness he did win over 3 miles last time - but that was a hurdle race on quick ground, so a very different test.
It’s not that he won’t be able to handle it - just that we don’t know - and you need something in the price to compensate for the uncertainty.
Enqad has been installed third favourite - on his first run over fences in the UK.
He’s impossible to assess, having only run twice over hurdles for current connections.
He has won over fences in his native France - and he’ll probably handle the ground - but whether he’ll relish 3 miles in the Haydock mud, is anyones guess…
Lord Napier caught my eye last time, in a decent novice chase a Chepstow.
He only managed to finish second that day - but may well have faced a near impossible task, trying to give the winner 10lb.
Based on is best form over hurdles, he is well handicapped on a mark of 132. And whilst he’s unproven over the trip on heavy ground - there’s a fair chance he will cope with it.
Salty Boy is the final one of interest.
He’s hard to construct a solid case for - but I do have a suspicion he can win off his current mark.
I actually had a suspicion that he could win off a mark 3lb higher - which is why I made him a Best bet last time, at Ascot !
He wasn’t up to that task - and I can’t be sure he will relish tomorrows test - but he will definitely remain on my radar, regardless…
3:15
I was hoping that Queenofhearts might be a price in this…
She’s not run for nearly 2 years - and returning over 3 miles in the Haydock mud, is quite an ask (particularly as she’s never previously tackled the trip).
However, despite the doubts, she’s be installed the 11/4 fav - and if she does drift, the worry will be that it’s due to fitness concerns.
If she is fit - and does stay the trip - then I suspect she has the class to win from her current mark.
I’m not sure I will want to take less than 3/1 though…
The trouble is, it looks a weak race.
No Hiding Place is second favourite on the back of a win at Carlisle.
However, he’s 2lb higher tomorrow - and it’s a stronger contest.
Goodbye Dancer would have a big chance if he bounced back to form. However that was the case when he ran at Cheltenham a week ago.
He showed little then - and I doubt a 2lb rating drop will make much difference.
Label des Obeaux is dropping down the handicap - and is likely to win one sooner rather than later.
I thought he had a chance last time at Market Rasen - but he didn’t show a great deal.
However, he should be a little fitter for that: has been dropped a further 3lb in the ratings - and, perhaps most interestingly, has a 10lb claimer in the saddle.
That does suggest some intent - even if I’m not entirely convinced that he wants bottomless ground…
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