Feb 14th - Preview for Exeter and Punchestown

 After the disappointment of losing all of todays racing, I was very hopeful that there would be some opportunities at Exeter tomorrow.

It’s a decent card - even if none of the races are on terrestrial TV - and there are a couple of races, where I may well be able to find a bet.

However, it now looks as if the meeting may well be lost...
The ground has been frozen since Monday - and whilst a thaw is expected to start shortly, it’s probably going to be a case of too little, too late.

They will inspect early tomorrow morning - and I wouldn’t be surprised if things drag on for a few hours - but whether any action will actually take place, remains to be seen.

Even if it does, such situations tend to lead to lots of non runners - so my raised hopes are now fading !

From what I can tell, there are no issues expected at Punchestown - so I would at least expect that meeting to take place.

However, it’s not a particularly strong card - with only the Grand National trial, warranting close inspection.

I’ll therefore preview that race - along with the main 2 races from Exeter (and keep my fingers crossed that they take place !)


Exeter

3:40

Leg 1 of the 2021 veterans chase series - and there’s a whole new set of ‘veterans’ now qualified to compete !

Included in the ranks of the ‘newbies’, is Beau Bay - our hero from Aintree in December, when he won the Grand Sefton at Aintree.
Arguably, this is a slightly weaker race - and he could easily go close, off a mark just 4lb higher.
That said, he’s unproven over tomorrows 3 mile trip: and I did feel he had been targeted at the Aintree race (whereas tomorrow. It’s a simple case of the race making sense, for him).
Bobo Mac and Yalltari are two other 10 years olds, who are both worthy of close attention.
The former ran really well to finish sixth in the Welsh National on his most recent outing - seeming not quite to stay the extreme trip.
He should be suited by a reversion to 3 miles - and it’s hard to see him going very close.
Yalltari caught my eye last time (and the eye of a few others !), when seemingly tanking through the Ascot race won by Enqard.
I made the winner a Best bet that day - but turning in, I thought Yalltari looked a real danger.
However, that wasn’t how it worked out, as Yalltari couldn’t make up the ground - though he still ran a very good race, to ultimately only be beaten 5 lengths.
Late Romantic won a leg of last seasons veterans series at Haydock in December; before finishing fifth in the Classic chase at Warwick, last month.
He’s clearly in good form at the moment, and is another one who should run well tomorrow.
Royal Vacation and Acting Lass are both handicapped to win - but have big questions marks over them…
The former is making his belated seasonal debut - and would prefer decent ground (which he is unlikely to get); whilst the latter is horribly out of form (pulled up on his 3 most recent outings).
If either were able to run to its best tomorrow, then they would be hard to beat - though it would require an act of faith, to support them.

4:10

An 18 runner Pertemps qualifier - this race looks like a bit of a minefield !
Some of the horses will be running simply to get a bit of fitness: whilst others will be running to try and qualify for the final of the series.
Two or three might even be trying to win the race - the tricky bit will be working out which ones !

A rating of 134 was sufficient to get into last years final - so off 135 there’s a fair chance that Southfield Harvest will make the cut this year - though it’s not guaranteed.
Connections would probably be happy to see him raised a couple of pounds, to make sure - but he’s likely to get more than that, if he wins.
A dilemma !
All of the runners rated above him in tomorrow race, are likely to get place in the final, provided they can finish in the first 6.
However, they are likely to reduce their chances of winning the final, if they win tomorrow.
Another dilemma !!
The best solution may be to ignore the fact it’s a qualifier - and instead try to find  the best handicapped horse, who would simply be happy to win tomorrows race !
Portrush Ted is not badly handicapped off a mark just 5lb higher than when winning at Sandown in December.
He subsequently blew out in the Long Walk hurdle at Ascot - but that was a grade 1 contest and took place just 2 weeks after his Sandown win.
He’s a fragile horse, so long term planning is impossible.
If he’s ready to run, then connections have to run him…
Agrapart will have an excellent chance - provided the ground is heavy.
He can get away with soft - but his strength is being able to plough through barely raceable ground.
If he gets that tomorrow, he will be hard to beat.
Aside from Southfield Harvest, then Does he Know is the most interesting of the unexposed horses…
He is still a novice and ran up a a trio of wins in the autumn, before running out last time, in the grade 1 Challow hurdle.
That was a bit of a blip (!) - and it’s interesting that he gets a first time hood tomorrow.
If that has the desired effect then he’s probably well handicapped off a mark of 143.
Palmers Hill is the final one on the short list.
He’s another who appears very hard to keep sound, having only run 3 times in past 3 years.
However, he clearly has a lot of ability - and is almost certainly capable of winning a race such as this.
Kevin Brogan is an eye catching booking - though I suspect the market will advise on expectations !


Punchestown

4:30

3m4f in heavy ground is going to take a bit of getting - this race is likely to be won by  thorough stayer…

The Big Dog has been installed the early favourite - and that’s understandable.
He has a touch of class - and potential for improvement over fences.
He also has crack amateur, Jamie Codd, in the saddle (it’s unusual for him to ride in an ‘open’ race) - though whether the horse will relish the extreme stamina test, remains to be seen.
Midnight Maestro is also prominent in the market.
He won at Leopardstown over Christmas , on only his third start for Enda Bolger (he was previously with Alan King, in the UK).
That was a career best - but he’s stepping up in trip by a mile tomorrow.
Again, how he will cope with that, only time will tell.
Born with the Sea is another fancied horse, who is yet to prove he can cope with tomorrows marathon trip.
That said, he does appear to be a real stayer - and his recent narrow defeat by Diol Ker, looks very good in light of the winners subsequent effort in the Grade 2 Galmoy hurdle.
Admittedly that was over hurdles - but Born with the Sea had looked useful on his previous outing, when winning a novice chase at Wetherby.
Set against that, he’s still only 7 - and has run 12 times on the flat.
That’s hardly the kind of profile you would associate with the winner of a Grand National trial !
With question marks over most of the market principals there must be a chance that there could be a shock result - though unfortunately, there are quite a few who could provide that - if on a going day !
Gordon Elliott runs 6 in the race - and whilst they are all a bit ‘gnarled’, a few of them look potentially well handicapped…
Roaring Bull won last seasons Paddy Power chase - and finished second in this years Troytown.
He’s now 2lb lower than he was in the latter event - and just 4lb higher than when winning last Christmas.
From a handicapping perspective, he’s weighted to go close - and he is Jack Kennedy’s chosen mount.
Dounikos is the other Elliott runner that particularly catches the eye.
He won this race 2 years ago - and off a mark 7lb higher than he races from tomorrow.
He’s shown absolutely nothing is 6 subsequent runs - but the fitting of first time cheek pieces tomorrow is an interesting move.
If they have the desired effect, then he could go very close…
The Joseph O’Brien trained Thermistocles, is the final one of interest.
He’s only run 3 times over fences, so is a bit light on chasing experience.
However, he ran well over hurdles on his belated seasonal debut at Naas, a fortnight ago.
A lot will depend on how he’s come out of that race - but if it’s brought him on and provided his jumping stands the test, then he is likely to run a big race.

Review of the Weekend - Feb 6th-7th

 After a month with minimal action, things picked up significantly this weekend.

The 2 day Dublin Racing Festival was the highlight - but there was also quality racing at both Sandown and Musselburgh.

Saturday

A very busy day - with plenty of uncertainty - saw me issue 4 Best bets across the days 3 meetings, along with a few additional bets for the Matrix…

Billingsley was the first of the Best bets to run - in the opener at Sandown.
I liked his profile: a confirmed mud lark with a very low weight, who might get an uncontested lead.
I wasn’t the only one who was taken by him however - as the early 14/1 had turned in to 13/2 at the off !

Alas, things didn’t turn out quite as hoped in the race.
Instead of getting an uncontested lead, Billinglsey got into a battle with Moonlighter - and ultimately, that one proved the stronger.

Things might have been different if Moonlighter had not survived a bad mistake at the very first fence - but he did - and was never subsequently headed.

Billingsley on the other hand, gradually made his way back through the field - and ended up the last horse to cross the line.

I also covered Caribean Boy for the Matrix - but he ran disappointingly and never featured…

Christopher Wood was the next Best bet to run - and I did fancy him.

He was contesting a relatively weak race at Musselburgh and I found it hard to see him not going close.
The trouble is, plenty of others saw it the same way and he was just a 7/2 shot early.

Maybe I should have had one point on him - but I thought the value was limited, so stuck with half a point.

In the race itself, he was always front rank - and whilst it looked like he might come off worse in a late battle with Voix de Reve, he stuck on gamely under a good ride from Angus Cheleda and was ultimately a comfortable winner.

It was a decent performance - and obviously pleasing to get a win - even if he only did what the form book said he should have done !

The final 2 Best bets on the day, were both in big field handicaps at Leopardstown.

Port Stanley was the first to run, in the 2 mile chase.
Unfortunately he missed the break and didn’t manage to get the prominent position I was hoping for.
He ended up running a disappointing race - never featuring and finishing nearer last than first…

I also covered The Shunter in the race, for the Matrix - but he too didn’t run the race I expected.
I thought he would be held up - but instead he attempted to make all.

He got outpaced after jumping the second last - but then stayed on again, to take third.
He almost certainly needs more of a stamina test - either a longer trip; softer ground - or a more demanding course…

The Moyglass Flyer was the final Best bet of the day - and I was quite keen on him.
Again, I wasn’t alone and he was sent off 4/1 favourite in an ultra competitive 22 runner handicap.

He took up a prominent position early - and things still seemed to be going well, jumping the second last.
However, in a few strides he was beaten - and ultimately, didn’t even finish the race.

Maybe something went wrong physically (he could have bled) - but whatever, it was  disappointing…

I also covered Saint D’oroux, He’s a Hardy Bloke and Advanced Virgo, for the Matrix.
Advanced Virgo briefly threatened rounding the home turn - before his effort petered out; whilst Saint D’oroux looked poised to mount a telling challenge approaching the last - but then faded into third place…

The days other Matrix bets were at Sandown - but again, it was a case of close but no cigar.
Doitforthevillage was held up at the back by Richard Johnson in the 2m4f chase, before making a big mid-race move.
It briefly looked as if he was going to sweep into the lead (he touched 2.5 IR) - but his stamina gave out after jumping the third last and he faded to finish a very tired fourth.
In the 3 mile chase, I was keen to take on favourite, Ask me Early, as he looked far too short a price.
That was a good call, as he was in trouble very early and pulled up with 6 fences still to jump.
My 2 against the field were Coo Star Sivola and Calipso Collonges and approaching  the last, the pair of them were bearing down on leader, Diese Aba.
I felt sure that one of them would go past - but neither could summon up the extra energy, whilst the the leader just kept on galloping.
It was a particularly frustrating race to watch !

Earlier on the Sandown card, Sporting John ploughed through the mud, and proved too strong for Shan Blue, in the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase.
It was a slightly surprising result - and I can’t believe that such a hard race will have done anything for the chances of the runner-up at Cheltenham.
Native River was a heart warming winner of the Cotswold chase - jumping from fence to fence and battling tenaciously when challenged by Bristol De Mai.
Even with no financial involvement, it was a very enjoyable race to watch.

Over at Leopardstown, Gaillard du Mesnil, Energumene, Chacun Pour Soi, Honeysuckle and Kilcruit were all hugely impressive short priced winning favourites.
All 5 are likely to take some beating when they aim to double up at the Cheltenham festival.


Sunday

Despite there being some quite valuable prizes on offer, the racing at Musselburgh was uninspiring.
My focus was therefore completely on day 2 of the Dublin Racing festival…


With another batch of short priced favourites, dominating the conditions races, I again had to turn to the days handicaps for most of the bets - though I also chanced my arm in the couple of the graded contests.

I ended up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.

The first Best bet ran in the opening mares handicap hurdle…

In truth, it was race that I intended to leave alone, as on first viewing, it looked nearly impossible to solve.

However, I had made Heaven Help Us a Best bet on day 2 of the season - so I was intrigued to see her returned to hurdling.

She’d performed poorly in 4 recent chase starts - but as a result had become potentially very well handicapped.
The fitting of first time cheek pieces was an interesting move - whilst the booking of a 7lb claimer made a potentially attractive handicap mark, irresistible !

I couldn’t decide whether to make her a Best bet or just cover her in the Matrix - and I suspect that if Christopher Wood hadn’t won on Saturday, it would have been the latter.
That’s how fine these lines are !

In the race itself, she slightly missed the break, from a standing start - but her jockey soon had her contesting the lead.
She was reigned back slightly after jumping the first - but remained in a clear second place, until striking for home after jumping the second last.
She was 5 lengths clear approaching the last - but by then, had been alone in front for a long time !
She lost a bit of momentum jumping the final flight - but just managed to find sufficient to withstand the late challenge of Global Equity.

There’s little doubt in my mind, that she was the best horse in the race - and by some margin.
But the way the race unfolded, almost saw her beaten.
 
Thankfully however, it was ’almost’ - and she managed to come home in front !

It’s bizarre to think how many similar finishes went against us in the first few weeks of the season.
Since then, they have generally gone the other way (he said, tempting fate !)

Ofcourse, it’s really important that luck smiles on you for the big ones - and at 25/1, she was certainly one of those !

I don’t consider myself a religious man - but maybe Heaven did help us :)

Unfortunately, that was it in terms of major excitement for the afternoon (though in fairness, it was also going to take a bit of beating !)

I suggested Delta Work in the Irish Gold cup, as I felt he represented value, in a very tight contest.

He probably did - and even more so at the off, following a big drift.
However, it was immaterial, as Kemboy got an uncontested lead - and had sufficient in reserve to hold off all challengers.

Delta Work ran on to take third place - but never remotely looked like winning.

Trainwreck was the final Best bet of the day - in an ultra competitive 2m5f handicap chase.

He wasn’t my main fancy in the race - but I could make a good case for him running well - and at 20/1+, he definitely represented ‘value’.
It’s easy to be sucked into backing the most likely winners in those kind of races - but ultimately luck counts for a great deal, so a value call is usually the better option.

Unfortunately however, he never featured in the race - and ended up well beaten.

Farlcas was my main fancy in the race - but I felt his price was too short.
I did cover him in the Matrix however - and he looked the most likely winner, approaching the final fence.

However, he weakened on the run, eventually finishing fourth.

There were just a couple of other Matrix bets on the day: Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne, against Monkfish.

Up until that point, I’d resisted the temptation to take on any of the ‘good things’ running at the meeting - but I felt Monkfish might be vulnerable.
Alas, I was completely wrong and he ended up possibly the most impressive winner them all !

It’s really hard to know what to do about the increasing number of short priced winners at these big meetings.
There was 8 of them across the 2 days - with all bar one, being sent off odds on.

I can’t back them at those prices (or suggest you do !) - but equally, opposing them seems futile.
As a consequence, half of the races can’t really be considered from a betting perspective.

It’s certainly something that will be playing on my mind, in the run up to the Cheltenham festival…

Still, I guess that whilst I can keep find the odd one like Heaven Help Us, I’m unlikely to get too many complaints :)

TVB. 

Feb 7th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Leopardstown

1:10
Heaven Help Us 5 units win 25/1

3:10
Asterion Forlonge 2 units win 10/1
Andy Dufresne 2 units win 11/1

3:40
Delta Work 5 units win 4/1

4:10 
Trainwreck 5 units win 22/1
Farclas 2 units win 13/2
At the Acorn 2 units win 14/1


Best bets

Leopardstown

1:10
Heaven Help Us 0.5 pt win 25/1 (20/1 is acceptable)

3:40
Delta Work 0.5pt win 4/1

4:10 
Trainwreck 0.5pt win 22/1 (20/1 is acceptable)

The fields for day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival aren’t quite as strong as they were on day 1 - but it’s still top class action.

As with yesterday, the main issue is that a few races have very short priced favourites - and that makes it hard to get involved with them.

Whilst it’s an 8 race card, 3 or 4 of the races are unattractive from a betting perspective - unless you are going to get creative with your bets (eg. w/o the fav or each way).
As it’s my aim to make all of the official TVB bets ‘win only’ - these races are pretty much off bounds.

Despite that I’ve managed to find 3 Best bets on the day - 2 of them at big prices.
I’ve also added in a sprinkling of bets for the Matrix - to support/enhance !

Elsewhere, I was a little surprised to see Musselburgh pass its early morning inspection.

As I said in the preview, I could see nothing of interest in the televised races - but now that I know the racing will be taking place, I’ll look at the other races on the card and see if I can find any angles.

If I do uncover anything, I’ll post on the Live thread in the forum, this afternoon…


Leopardstown

I’ve not taken many risks with the Best bets this season - but I can’t resist Heaven help Us in the opener…  
This is the second time I’ve suggested her this season - and I was pretty keen on her first time.
That was because having watched all of her previous races, I felt she had the potential to be a fair bit better than she’d shown.
She disappointed that day - and has disappointed in 3 subsequent starts - but it could simply be that she hasn’t taken to fences.  
Back over hurdles, she is handicapped to win, on her form of last year.
First time cheek pieces is a really interesting move - as is the booking of a 7lb claimer.
She could easily blow out - but equally, she if she does bounce back, I really think she could win.
I did consider just covering her on the Matrix - but at 20/1+, in a very winnable race, she’s a Best bet.

It was easy enough to leave the 1:40 alone.
I felt Quilixios was opposable at even money - but so did everyone else and he’s now a 7/4 shot.
The other issue was what to take him on with.
Youmdor is the obvious one - but he’s now joint fav: whilst Saint Sam is the alternative - but he too has been well backed.
I think I’ll just be watching…

It’s hard to look beyond Appreciate It in the 2:10 - but impossible to back him at 1/2.
Probably the best bet in the race, is Irascible in the ‘w/o the fav’ market.
I think he is most likely to chase home Appreciate It - and 9/2 is probably a fair price (though not overly generous)

Despite being one of the races I could have got involved with, the 2:40 holds minimal betting appeal.
I’ve had small plays myself, on Unexpected Depth and Ballyshannon Rose - but more in hope than expectation.
If Frontal Assault comes in for significant support, then he will be of interest - conversely, if he drifts, he’s probably one to avoid…

Whilst I’ve resisted taking on most of the short priced favs at the meeting, I’m prepared to have a half hearted play against Monkfish.
He may not be overrated - but I don’t think he is that much superior to the pack - and the conditions he faces today, aren’t ideal.
In fairness, I could have said the same about Honeysuckle yesterday - and that one didn’t end well !
Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne are both penitentially top class - and should be better suited by this intermediate trip than the fav.
I’m slightly concerned that Asterion might be ridden just to get round; whilst Andy Dufresne isn’t the hardiest of battlers - but I still think they are worth dutching to small stakes, against the fav.

I’m a little surprised that Delta Work is a relatively easy to back 4/1 shot, in the Irish Gold Cup (3:40).
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and on that form holds Kemboy.
He’s a much better horse at Leopardstown - and I suspect this is the main race of the season for him.
Melon is far from guaranteed to get the trip: whilst Minella Indo still has enough to prove, and is just to short at 7/4, on the back of a fall last time.
In the circumstances, Delta Work is definitely the value call in the race.

I was intending to make Farclas a Best bet in the 4:10 - but his price has collapsed…
He’s caught my eye in both of his runs this season - and I think todays test will suit him perfectly - but 11/2 is very short in a competitive 22 runner race…
Based on his last run in the Paddy Power chase, he has little in hand of Trainwreck.
The 2 of them jumped the last together - and Farclas stayed on the better.
However Trainwreck is a pound better off today - and should have improved for the run.
He also finished an unlucky second in this race, last year - with 5 lengths back to the third placed horse - and is just 2lb higher today.
I’m pretty sure that he has been targeted at todays contest - and at 4 times the price of Farclas, is the value call.
I’ll cover Farclas on the Matrix - as he does have a very good chance (and may drift a little); whilst At the Acorn is also worth a small bet for the Matrix (assuming he gets a run).
He ran well in the race 12 months ago and will doubtless have been primed for today.
  

Feb 7th - Preview for Leopardstown

 It was a little ominous to see all 5 of the conditions races at Leopardstown today, won by short priced favourites…

That seems to be the case more and more nowadays, at the big festivals.
The big stables, get the best horses - and ensure they are spot on for the big days.

Thankfully, I opted not to take on any of them (and I was never going to be suggesting backing any of them !). However, it does mean that I can be limited to suggesting bets in the handicaps (which tend to be ferociously competitive - and require a deal of luck)

There are few more ‘obvious’ ones tomorrow at Leopardstown - so I suspect I’ll be swerving those races and hoping I can pick the right ones in the handicaps.

In addition to Leopardstown, there should also be racing on Terrestrial TV, from Musselburgh.
However, the meeting will need to survive an early inspection (and I’m not optimistic it will) - and even if it does, the 4 televised races don’t offer any betting opportunities (bizarrely there are 2 novice hurdles, a juvenile hurdle - and a small field Pertemps qualifier).

As a consequence, the preview for tomorrow is completely focused on day 2 of the Dublin Racing festival…


Leopardstown

1:10
 
The card opens up with a mares handicap hurdle.
The race lacks a bit of quality - but that is more than made up for by numbers !
A maximum field of 20 will go to post - and it’s not an easy race to unravel…

Willie Mullins trains 6 of the runners - and his best chance of success seems to be with Dysart Diamond.
She has only run 3 times over hurdles - but was an impressive winner last time, on her handicap debut at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
She’s been raised 11lb for that win - but there could easily be more improvement in her…
She is disputing favouritism with Tellmesomethinggirl.
She too is relatively inexperienced - but has won 3 of her 4 hurdles races this season and is clearly improving fast.
She is the only runner in the race for Henry De Bromhead - and is in the same ownership as Honeysuckle.
If she’s half as good as that one, she’ll take some beating in this !
Mrs Milner went agonisingly close to winning at Cheltenham in November - but couldn't quite overhaul On the Blind Side.
That was over 3 miles - and she drops back to 2m2f tomorrow.
In theory that could be an issue - however she won over 2 miles at Galway in July.
I think she would be better over a slightly longer trip - but if there’s a strong pace and the ground is soft, then her stamina should prove very useful.
I made Heaven Help Us a Best bet on day 2 of the season - when she ran in a novice chase at Cork.
She was very disappointing that day - and has been equally disappointing in 3 subsequent races.
However, she returns to hurdles tomorrow - and cheekpieces are applied for the first time.
Based on her hurdles form from last year, she has a really good chance of a mark of just 126.
She finished second to Abracadbras in a grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting; and seventh to Shishkin in the Supreme at Cheltenham.
If she could re-find that form, she would win - so therefore has to be of interest at a big price.

1:40

The first of the days grade 1s, has drawn a relatively disappointing field…

Gordon Elliott has a particularly strong hand of juvenile hurdlers this season - though  Quilixios isn’t at the top of that pile.
It’s therefore a little surprising to see him installed an even money favourite for this race.
Granted he’s won his 2 Irish races without breaking sweat - but he has faced only modest opposition - and also hasn’t been seen for over 3 months...
Tomorrows race will represent a very different test for him - and whilst he might be up to it, I couldn’t entertaining supporting him at current odds.
The problem is what to oppose him with.
Willie Mullins trains the next 3 in the betting - and if Quilixios is beaten, it is likely to be by one of them.
Youmdor is the obvious one.
He won on his Irish debut at Gowran in November - and would have followed up at Fairyhouse last month, if he’d not taken a final flight fall.
There’s a slight worry that might have left a mark - but if it hasn’t then I would expect him to go close.
Saint Sam and Ha D’or are the other 2 Mullins runners.
They both contested the grade 1 Knight Frank juvenile at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting - but were put in their place by the Elliott trained Zanahiyr.
That said, both performed with credit - particularly considering their relative inexperience.
Ha D’or just came out best of the pair - on only his second ever run; however it was Saint Sam who caught the eye, as he got trapped at a crucial point in the race, before finishing strongly.
You couldn’t be confident over which one will do best tomorrow - and it is possible that they may both be slightly shy of the required level.
However, it wouldn’t be a major surprise if either one showed significant improvement, which would probably put them right in the mix.

2:10

It seems ridiculous that Appreciate It has been installed a 1/2 favourite for a 15 runner grade 1 novice hurdle - but equally, it’s hard to argue with !
He was a hugely impressive winner of a similar race at Leopardstown over Christmas - when his main rivals tomorrow, all finished upwards of 9 lengths behind him.
There’s a chance that Irascible may reduce the deficit, with that experience under his belt: whilst Ballyadam was very disappointing and could well run better - but it’s hard to see why either one should reverse the form…
Blue Lord should be better suited to tomorrows 2 mile trip, than he was to 2m4f on his most recent start - but again, he has a lot to find if he’s to trouble the favourite.
Outside of those 3, you are really clutching at straws !
Suffice to say, if Appreciate It jumps round cleanly - and doesn’t encounter any bad luck in running, it’s highly unlikely that he will be beaten.

2:40

The second handicap of the day, this isn’t a race that particularly grabs me…

As with all these big handicaps, the place to start, is the JP McManus runners - particularly the one ridden by Mark Walsh.
He rides Damalisque in this - and the horse has already been backed in to 4/1 favouritism.
He was a very easy winner at Navan, just 9 days ago - and whilst he has to carry a 12lb penalty for the win, if he’s in the same form tomorrow, it probably won’t be enough to stop him from following up.
JP also owns the second favourite - Pure Genius.
He will be having his first run in a handicap - and whilst it’s hard to judge accurately,
an opening mark of 127 doesn’t appear overly harsh.
Like Drop the Anchor today, he will be ridden by Simon Torrens - and his 5lb claim is a bit of a gift.
It will be interesting to see how the 2 horses move in the late betting…
Ballyshannon Rose and Unexpected Depth, both bring strong handicap form to the race.
The former has already won 4 handicaps this season, with his rating rising from an initial 87 to the 129 he races off tomorrow.
The handicapper will get to him sooner or later - but he clearly has a strong desire to win and that will always stand him in good stead.
Unexpected Depth won on his seasonal debut, before finished third in a decent handicap last time.
However, he lost little in that race - and I suspect he will remain competitive off a mark just 3lb higher…
Frontal Assault is the final one of interest.
He represents the Gordon Elliott/Jack Kennedy combination and will be having his first run in a handicap after 4 runs in novice events.
He was a good winner of his most recent race at Thurles - and the fitting of cheek pieces for his handicap debut is an interesting move.
I would expect him to come in for support, if connections believe he is well handicapped.

3:10

There’s another heavily odds on favourite in this, in the shape of Monkfish.
However, unlike Appreciate It, he doesn’t strike me as completely bomb proof…

For a start, he’s running in a novice chase (where accidents are more likely !) - plus he is dropping back in trip, having looked a real stayer last time…
Ofcourse, he may well have the class to get away with it - and his jumping in his 2 chase starts so far, has been almost flawless.
However, he will face some strong opposition tomorrow - so there’s a fair chance that any chinks in his armour could be exposed.
Latest Exhibition has been installed a clear second favourite - but I’m not sure I see him as Monkfish’s main rival.
The 2 clashed last time at Leopardstown over Christmas, and Monkfish came out on top by 3 lengths.
Even if Latest Exhibition is better suited by the drop in trip (which is debatable), I would still expect the placings to be confirmed.
Andy Dufresne and Asterion Collognes strike me as potentially bigger dangers to Monkfish…
Both were high class over hurdles - and could be even better over fences.
Andy Dufresne is being stepped up in trip tomorrow, having run over 2 miles on his 2 previous chase starts.
That’s a move which could well elicit some improvement.
Asterion Collognes has fallen on his 2 most recent starts - and that’s a worry.
There is a chance that connections will simply want him to get round safely tomorrow - and it doesn’t help that he is also trained by Willie !
However, he has the basic ability to be top class, so if he does run on his merits - and his jumping holds up, then he could well give Monkfish a run for his money.
It’s hard to make much more than half cases for any of the other runners - and they are all probably best watched with a view to finding potential good class handicappers, for later in the season…

3:40

There’s a slightly disappointing turn out for the Irish Gold cup, with just 5 runners - however, all 5 are top class.
In fact 4 of them featured prominently, in the grade 1 Savills chase, run at the course over the Christmas period.
Kemboy finished second in that race, with Melon just behind in third.
Minella Indo was sent off a short priced favourite - but fell at the 8th fence; whilst Delta Work unseated, a fence later…
It’s not easy figuring out which one of the 4 will come out on top tomorrow - as a case can be made for each.
Delta Work won this race last season - getting the better of Kemboy.
It looked to me as if he was a little unlucky at Christmas, as he appeared to stumble on landing.
He was at least saved from having a hard race that day - and I would expect him to  get the better of Kemboy, as was the case 12 months ago.
The issue with Melon, is undoubtedly the trip.
He appeared to almost stay it at Christmas, having been ridden quite aggressively.
I suspect he will be ridden with more restraint tomorrow - but it remains to be seen whether that will have the desired effect.
If it does, he is likely to go very close…
Minella Indos fall last time, was out of character - as his jumping in his previous chases had been almost flawless.
However, he is yet to prove himself in grade 1 open company and simply looks too short in the betting, at 7/4.
That’s not to say he can’t win - just that I won't be backing him at that price, particularly on the back of a fall !
The Storyteller can’t be completely dismissed - though it’s hard not to think that he had his big day, when taking the Champion chase at Down Royal, back in October.

4:10

Farclas caught my eye last time, when finishing third in the Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
He moved powerfully through the race - but appeared not to quite get home.
Dropping him back in trip looks to be a good move - and if he runs to the same level, he should be tough to beat.
In fairness, he also has back class, which suggests he may be even better than he showed that day.
He won the Triumph hurdle 3 years ago - and whilst his first season in open company was a disappointment, he showed plenty as a novice chaser, before injury intervened.
His last 2 run have suggested that his problems are now behind him - and if that is the case, then he sets a high standard.
Treacysenniscorthy was impressive when winning at Cork, early last month.
He ran up a sequence over hurdles last season, culminating in an all the way victory at this meeting.
He’s now on a rating 9lb higher than he was when he won his last hurdle race - but he does look like he could be even better over fences.
Trainwrecked looked like winning this race last year, until he was run down close home, by Glamorgan Duke
He’s not matched that form since, but has only run 3 times - and shaped will real promise last time, when a place behind Farclas in the Paddy Power.
He’s almost certainly been targeted at this race - and off a mark just 2lb higher than last year, must have every chance of at least hitting the frame.
At the Acorn was sent off favourite for this race last year - and ran well to finish sixth.
That was the last time he ran in a chase, so whilst he’s not shown much since, that’s probably irrelevant.
He gets to run off a mark 1lb lower tomorrow - and is still only 7 (so could well have improved).
He’s currently only a reserve for the race, so will need a couple to drop out, if he is to get a run.
However, if that does happen, then I would expect him to run a big race…

Feb 6th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Leopardstown

2:45
Port Stanley 5 units win 10/1
The Shunter 2 units win 9/2

3:50
The Moyglass Flyer 5 units win 6/1
Saint D'Oroux 2 units win 14/1
He's a Hardy Bloke 2 units win 12/1
Advanced Virgo 1 unit win 9/1

Sandown

1:15 
Billingsley 5 units win 14/1
Caribean Boy 2 units win 5/2

2:55
Doitforthevillage 2 units win 10/1

3:30
Coo Star Sivola 4 units win 13/2
Calypso Collonge 2 units win 14/1
A Toi Phil 2 units win 8/1

Musselburgh

2:05
Christopher Ward 5 units win 7/2


Best bets

Leopardstown

2:45
Port Stanley 0.5pt win 10/1

3:50
The Moyglass Flyer 0.5pt win 6/1

Sandown

1:15 
Billingsley 0.5pt win 14/1

Musselburgh

2:05
Christopher Ward 0.5pt win 7/2
 

 After weeks of scratching around, trying to find suitable races to bet in, it seems a little ironic that I am today faced with an overwhelming number of opportunities !

I would have been quite happy to just cover the excellent Leopardstown card - but it was joined by Sandown, Mussleburgh - and for a while at least, Wetherby…

The situation was compounded by the uncertainty over the weather.
I previewed Sandown and Wetherby, half expecting both to be abandoned (the latter was).

At least I’m pretty confident on the state of the ground at Sandown - and in truth, I’ll be surprised if both Leopardstown and Musselburgh aren’t riding ‘soft’.

It was still very hard for me to get my head round what I actually wanted to suggest as bets - and then monitor a plethora of markets.
I think I got the advised prices pretty close to reality - apologies, if any of them moved significantly between me typing and issuing.

Ultimately, I ended up with 4 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.
Whether I honed in on the ‘right’ ones, only time will tell !
Fingers crossed !!


Leopardstown

The opening race (1:05), is one to watch with an eye to the future…
Gaillard du Mesnil could be top class - but his price is short enough; the fitting of a hood is a slight concern - and he faces a host of potentially dangerous rivals.
I did briefly consider suggesting Cape Gentleman - but it would have been a guess and there’s not much in the price.

Chacun Pour Soi will probably beat Min and Notebook in the 1:35.
That’s also what the betting says - so there is no obvious angle for tackling the race.

I don’t have a strong view on the 2:10.
Energumene is the right favourite - and even money is probably the right price.
A lot will depend on how the race unfolds, in terms of pace and tactics - but that’s not much use if you are looking to play pre-race !
Another race just to be watched…

I like Port Stanley in the 2:45 - and think he is worth a bet.
I was taken by his effort in defeat last time, when he showed good battling qualities.
He’s young and unexposed - but also has some very decent form. Whilst a handicap mark of 135 looks very fair…
Entoucas and Epson du Houx are dangers - but The Shunter is potentially the biggest danger of all.
Based on his win in the Greatwood hurdle, he is very well handicapped.
His jumping is a worry - but if things fall right for him, he is the most likely race winner.
As a consequence, it is worth saving stakes on him for the Matrix…

I’m against Honeysuckle in the 3:15 - and was very tempted to find a way to turn that into an official bet.
My original plan was to suggest Saldier - but reading Willie Mullins comments, I don’t think he’s got the horse quite where he wants him (the market suggests the same - though that might just be reflecting his comments !).
Sharjah is the obvious alternative - but there is minimal margin in a price of 5/2, up against 5 strong rivals.
If he drifts to 3/1+, I’ll get involved with him.

It strikes me that The Moyglass Flyer has been targeted at this race.
He has ticks in just about every box - and whilst his price is short enough, I still want him on side.
I can see half cases for a number of his rivals, so I think it is worth deploying the Matrix to cover stakes.
He’s a Hardy Bloke is an unexposed novice, who could have plenty in hand of his mark; Saint D’oroux represents top connections and is proven in this type of race; whilst Advanced Virgo looked to win a good race with plenty in hand, last time.
All 3 are worth covering on the Matrix - though the first choice is very much The Moyglass Flyer…


Sandown

I have a feeling that the opening race might not take too much winning…
There are question marks over all of the runners - and at a price, I think it is worth taking a risk on Billingsley.
He will handle the ground better than most - particularly with a light weight on his back.
His jumping is a concern - particularly round Sandown - but if he gets into a rhythm at the head of affairs, he could prove tough to pass.
Caribean Boy is the potential spoiler - as he may just be a very good horse.
He’ll also have no issue with the ground, so is worth saving stakes on…

The 1:50 is a race to watch.
It’s a fascinating contest - but an ability to cope with the ground, is likely to be the deciding factor.
I did briefly consider putting up Dame de Compagnie, as she is theoretically a good bet at around 6/1.
However, I have a feeling the test might prove to be a bit too much for her…

It’s a similar story with the 2:20.
I could literally have put up any of the 6 runners - and in that situation, it’s a race best swerved !
I’d be against Santini (at the prices) - but I don’t sufficiently fancy any of the others, to encourage me to make them a bet…

The 2:55 is yet another race where I can give plenty of the runners a chance.
Alnadim strikes me as the most likely winner - and 4/1 is probably a fair price.
However, Doitforthevillage is the best ‘value’ option, at a double figure price.
He’s worth a small bet for the Matrix.
Gardefort and Colorado Doc are 2 others at big prices, worthy of consideration - but officially speaking, I’ll just side with Doitforthevillage.

Ask me Early looks too short in the 3:30, at around 6/4.
That’s not to say he can’t win (he was my initial fancy for the race) - just that there are sufficient doubts to oppose him at that price.
Most of the other runners can be given a chance - but the one I like best is Coo Star Sivola.
He caught my eye last time and is now very well handicapped. At 6/1, he is a borderline Best bet (but not quite !).
A Toi Phil and Calipso Collonges were the other 2 who I felt worth covering for the Matrix - though the former is now a NR, due to lameness…


Musselburgh

I’m pretty keen on Christopher Wood in the 2:10 - just less keen on the price !
I think he has the beating of one of his main market rivals (Torigni); whilst the other main one (Ashington) doesn’t look sufficiently well handicapped (unless he has improved for a change of stable).
Half cases can be made for a few of the others - but they are only half cases.
I am hopeful that Christopher Wood will prove himself different class.

I can’t see an angle into the 3:45.
I suspect Le Breuil will either win by half for track - or not feature !
The Ferry Master is the obvious alternative - but also the second favourite.
Billy Bronce was possibility for the Matrix - but there are plenty of question marks over him, so I decided against…

Feb 6th - Preview for Leopardstwon, Sandown & Musselburgh

 With so much top class racing scheduled for the next couple of days, I feel I’ve little option other than to start previewing it early.

There simply won’t be sufficient time for me to preview all of the big races this evening - which is what I usually do…

To that end, I’ve produced a preview for Saturdays Leopardstown card: I’ll aim to cover the UK cards this evening - assuming nothing untoward crops up, in terms of inspections etc…


Leopardstown

My assumption is that the ground at Leopardstown will be soft.
It’s a fast draining course - so it’s likely to ride quicker than would reasonably be expected, considering the recent rain.

The card for the opening day, is as good as you’ll get - from the perspective of a racing enthusiast.
4 grade 1s: a couple of hyper competitive handicaps - and a top quality bumper.
Whether it will yield many bets however, remains to be seen !

1:05

The meeting opens up with it’s first grade 1 - and it’s an absolute cracker.
A novice hurdle over 2m6f, it’s likely to have a big bearing on both the Ballymore and the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival.
Trying to find the winner of the race however, will be a real challenge.

Gaillard du Mesnil heads the market, after his scintillating win at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He was well fancied that day, in a traditionally strong contest - and absolutely hacked up.
The form has been franked by the placed horses - and the time was apparently very good.
He’s going to be hard to beat - though the application of a first time hood, is an interesting move (he was very keen in the race).
Cape Gentleman didn’t beat much when he won on his hurdling debut at Punchestown - and the time wasn’t particularly fast either.
However, he was visually very impressive - and was a good winner of the Irish Cesarewitch in October, on only his second run in Ireland.
He’s clearly a very talented horse, who appears to be improving fast.
Like Gaillard du Mesnil, Stattle won a novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
His performance wasn’t quite as impressive as that of his stable-mate - but it still resulted in him being installed ante-post favourite for the Albert Bartlett.
This race should tell us whether his market position is justified.
Gentlemansgame was sent off a very short priced favourite on his hurdling debut at at Cork, early last month - and absolutely hacked up.
It’s impossible to gauge the worth of the form - but he is clearly held in high regard and couldn’t have won more easily.
Holymacapony was a good winner on his hurdling debut at Punchestown in November. He beat Gaillard du Mesnil that day - but I think he might struggle to confirm the form tomorrow.
Gaillard du Mesnil looked to run green that day - and suspect he showed big improvement when winning at Leopardstown.
That said, Holymacapony clearly can’t be easily dismissed - despite an inexplicably poor subsequent run at Navan in November.
That race was won by Ashdale Bob - but he fell on his next outing, when quite well fancied for the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas hurdle.
Again, he will need to bounce back from that, if he is to have a chance tomorrow - but that’s quite possible…
Few of the remaining runners can be completely ruled out, as they are mainly unexposed animals, who could be capable of putting in big runs.
That said, this is such a strong race - and the main protagonists have already shown themselves capable of high class form.
It will be a bit of a shock if the winner comes from outside the 6 mentioned above…

1:35

The second grade 1 on the card doesn’t look quite so competitive !

Chacun pour Soi is a very strong favourite - and it’ll be a big surprise if he is beaten.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - getting the better of stablemate, Min - and has subsequently confirmed himself to be the best 2 mile chaser in training.
The acid test for him, will come at in the Champion chase at Cheltenham in March - and whilst I think he may be vulnerable in that race, I suspect he will win this one.
As with 12 months ago, Min looks most likely to chase him home - though Notebook may well put up a fight for the runner-up spot.
He was second to Chacun at Leopardstown over Christmas - and is more of a 2 miler than Min (who is now better over 2m4f).
The other 3 runners shouldn’t really be good enough to feature.
Tornado Flyer has looked an improved performer this season - but over longer trips (his most recent run was over 3 miles).
Sizing Pottsie will have no issue with the trip - but appears to just be a decent handicapper (though an improving one).
Fakir Doudaries looked a very good horse last season (of a similar level to Notebook). However, he was sent over fences early and took advantage of various weight allowances. He no longer receives those allowances - and has struggled to maintain his form this season…

2:10

The grade 1 races just keep on rolling - and this one has also got a short priced favourite.

Energumene has won his 2 chases this season: over 2m4f at Gowran in November - and then over 2 miles at Naas, last month.
He was very impressive on both occasions - making all and barely putting a foot wrong.
As a result, he is now second favourite for the Arkle behind Shishkin - and a win in this race, will doubtless secure his ticket for Cheltenham.
He probably will win - but he faces some strong rivals - and may also not find it easy to dominate.
Felix Desjy is very head strong - and if Energumene is leading him early, then he will probably be going too fast !
It remains to be seen how Energumene will cope if he can’t lead - but it’s certainly something to bear in mind if your are considering taking a short price.
Whilst Felix Desjy is unlikely to last home, a few of the others are more than capable of taking advantage, if Energumene does run below form.
Unexcepted was an impressive winner at Tipperary in October - and whilst he’s not been seen since, I doubt that will be an issue.
He’s an unexposed horse - but his form over hurdles last season, showed that he is very useful.
Franco de Port beat Darver Star in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas - and he may well turn out to be the biggest threat to Energumene.
He took advantage of an overly strong pace that day (set by Felix Desjy) - and there’s a chance that situation could repeat tomorrow.
Captain Guiness is the other one worthy of mention.
He was a very good hurdler last season - and was expected to make an even better chaser this season.
However, he was found the be clinically abnormal, when running disappointingly on his seasonal debut behind Unexcepted.
He bounced back with a win at Punchestown in December, before being put in his place by Energumene, at Naas last month.
In truth, there is no obvious reason why he should reverse that form - but if Energumene does run below form, he would have every chance of taking advantage.

2:45

The first of the 2 handicaps, will see 20 runners going to post for a 2 mile chase.

There are a number of relatively unexposed runners in the field - and I suspect one of them will come home in front…

Epson de Houx was a really impressive winner at Naas last month, on his handicap debut.
He had only run in 2 chases prior to that - and had fallen in one of those !
Despite that, he looked a natural over fences and came home unchallenged.
A 13lb rating rise looks a little harsh - but it’s very hard to judge how good he might be.
Pont Aven has run with credit in 3 strong handicaps already this season,
However, he’s not managed to win any of them - and is edging up the weights.
The application of a first time hood is a slightly surprising move, considering he has been held up the last twice.
If it does bring about improvement, then he should go close - though I’ll be slightly surprised if he is good enough to win.
He finished ahead of Entoucas on his most recent outing at Fairyhouse.
The latter is 3lb better off tomorrow - which gives him a chance of reversing the form.
He also has the greater scope for improvement - and is Marks Walsh's choice of the 4 JP McManus runners…
If The Shunter could be guaranteed to jump round efficiently, then he would almost certainly be the one to beat.
He was a comfortable winner of the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham on his most recent outing - and will run off a mark just 4lb higher tomorrow.
However, he’s only run 4 times over fences previously - and his chase form doesn't match his hurdles form.
The market is likely to advise with him.
He was very well backed for the Greatwood - and was banned from running for 60 days after an ‘eye-catching’ effort at Tipperary in July !
His presence in the race, will make it a hard one to get involved with.
Aramax beat Port Stanley at Fairyhouse last month - but is not guaranteed to confirm the form on 7lb worse terms for just over 2 lengths.
I felt that Port Stanley ran better than the result suggested that day, as he got in to a battle for the lead - and then had to try and withstand the late challenge of the winner .
First time cheek pieces are an interesting move for him and he still looks open to improvement.
Ordinary World looks the most interesting of those at longer prices.
He’s a class horse and finished third in a grade 1 last Christmas.
He also has a fair record fresh, so the fact he will be making his seasonal debut, isn’t a big negative.

3:15

Honeysuckle puts her unbeaten record on the line in this, having won her previous 9 races under rules.
One of those wins was in this contest last year - but she only managed to scramble home that day, from Darver Star and Petit Mouchoir.
That’s fair form - but it’s not really top class.
The issue with Honeysuckle, is that she ideally wants further than 2 miles.
All bar 2 of her career wins have been over further - and up against a 2 miler from the top drawer, I suspect her winning run will come to an end.
Whether she will face such a horse tomorrow however, remains to be seen…
In fairness, Sharjah can be top class - it’s just a question of whether he will produce that level of form.
He did at Leopardstown over Christmas, when taking the grade 1 - and if he repeats that performance, he’s likely to win.
Very soft ground would be a worry for him - though it was quite soft at Christmas so assuming the ground is similar, he looks the one to beat.
Very soft ground would be a worry for Abracadabras,
He’s been a but disappointing this season - though apparently wasn’t right last time, when well behind Sharjah.
Saint Roi also finished well beaten in that race - and with no excuse forthcoming, he would be be quite hard to support.
Saldier is more interesting…
He too finished well behind Sharjah at Christmas - but that was his first run in over a year and he almost certainly needed it.
He has been very sparingly raced over the years - but when he has run, he has invariably put in a high class performance.
If he is on his ‘A’ game tomorrow, then he shouldn’t be under-estimated.

3:50

As is often the case, JP McManus holds a particularly strong hand in this race, owning 6 of the 22 runners.
His retained jockey, Mark Walsh, has chosen to ride The Moyglass Flyer - and it’s easy to understand why.
The horse won a competitive handicap at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, last season, on only his third run over hurdles.
He then wasn’t seen until running in the same race, this Christmas.
Walsh opted not to ride him that day - and the horse was weak in the market.
However he still ran a really big race, to finish third.
He wasn’t given a hard time - and runs off the same mark tomorrow.
He very much looks the one to beat…
That said, dangers abound…
Advanced Virgo was an impressive winner of a similar handicap at Fairyhouse, in November.
He was weak in the betting that day (which is unusual for a Charles Byrnes trained winner) but was a fair bit too good for his rivals.
He’s been raised 10lb for his efforts - but that might not stop him.
A few of the horses he beat in that race re-oppose tomorrow - with Drop the Anchor probably the most noteworthy.
He finished third - but was badly impeded by a faller at the second last.
He will be meeting the winner on 8lb better terms - and there shouldn’t be much between the pair.
Eskylane and He’s a Hardy Bloke are both still novices, so it’s interesting that connections are running them in such a competitive race.
Both have plenty of scope for improvement - and He’s a Hardy Bloke in particular, looks one who should be kept on side.
Of those at bigger prices, Saint D’oroux and Golden Jewel look the most interesting.
The former finished third in the Boodles, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and runs from a mark 1lb lower tomorrow.
He was a little disappointing in his first 3 runs this season - but showed far more promise on his most recent outing, when second at Thurles.
Golden Jewel finished second in this race 12 months ago - and was a little unlucky not to win.
He will be running off a mark 8lb higher tomorrow - and as a 9 year old, won’t have the scope for improvement of some of his rivals,.
However he looks to have been targeted at this race by connections - having run over fences last time, to protect his hurdles mark following a fine second at Down Royal, at the end of October.

Sandown

Assuming the meeting actually takes place, I can only imagine how the ground will be riding at Sandown…

The hurdle races were abandoned earlier in week (the ground is invariably worse on that course), leaving an all chase card.
However, there was significant rain yesterday, making it necessary for an inspection to take place earlier this afternoon.
The course was deemed fit for racing - however, more rain is expected over night, and I suspect it won’t take much for the meeting to be lost.
Suffice to say, finding the winners is going to be more about finding the horse that will cope with the conditions, than about finding the most talented/best handicapped horses…

1:15

Dolos has taken the past 2 runnings of this race, but I think he will have his work cut out to complete the hatrick.
In fairness, he’s not badly handicapped, off a mark just 1lb higher than last year (when he beat First Flow).
However, his best form isn’t on heavy ground - and having to carry 11st 12lb will be a massive ask.
Caribean Boy has only 4lb less to carry - but his best form is on heavy ground - and he has no shortage of stamina.
The question with him, is how well handicapped he is - and that’s a tough one to answer…
Moonlighter looks fairly handicapped, off a mark just 2lb higher than when second in the Haldon Gold cup, in early November.
That looked a really strong piece of form - but he fell next time at Newbury and then disappointed at Sandown at the start of January.
He now has a fair bit to prove…
Paddys Poem ran really well last time, when runner up to Ibleo over tomorrows course and distance. However, that was his first outing for over a year, so there has to be a slight worry that he might ’bounce’.
He also got raised 3lb for his efforts - which is made worse by the fact he will have to run from 5lb outside the handicap…
Billingsley is the final one of interest.
He was very progressive last season - and is effective in heavy ground.
Alas, he is yet to complete in 2 runs this season !
A fall at Doncaster in December, was followed by an unseat at Wetherby a month later.
Clearly his jumping is a concern - particularly round Sandown.
However, he will handle the conditions and has a very light weight.
He also likes to front run - and if he manages to get into a rhythm up front, he could prove hard to pass…

1:50

This really is a cracking edition of the Grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase - but virtually impossible to call with any confidence.
All 4 of the market leaders would be worthy winners - and it’s likely to come down to which one of them best handles the conditions…

Shan Blue and Hitman head the market - and it easy to make a case for both.
The former is dropping in distance having won the grade 1 Kauto star novice chase at Kempton over Christmas.
He won that race well - but seemed to be reaching the end of his stamina over the 3 mile trip, so is understandable that connections are opting to run him over half a mile less.
He’s an exceptional jumper of a fence (touch wood !) - so Sandown should really suit him.
However, it remains to be seen how well he will cope with very heavy ground.
By contrast, Hitman is stepping up in trip, having been found wanting for pace over 2 miles on his latest outing.
Under normal circumstances, I would have no issue with the move - but the ground is likely to put a real emphasis on stamina, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to cope with that…
Messire des Obeaux is third in the betting - and whilst he will be ideally suited by the trip - I’m not sure he will relish the very heavy ground.
It’s in his favour that he is not being aimed at Cheltenham - so I suspect connections will be less concerned about him having a very hard race.
However, if he doesn’t handle the ground, that’s going to be immaterial !  
I would expect Dame de Compagnie to handle the ground.
It as very heavy at Ayr, when she made her chasing debut and she coped well with conditions.
She will also be suited by the trip - whilst her sex allowance means she is officially the best horse in the race, at the adjusted weights.
The worry with her, is her inexperience (she made he chasing debut less than 3 weeks ago, in a 2 horse race !) - and whether connections will want her bottoming, prior to a likely run at the Cheltenham festival.
Neither Sporting John or Paint the Dream can be completely dismissed - though it would be a bit of a surprise if either proved quite good enough to win.

2:20

The Cotswold chase has been saved from last Saturdays abandoned Cheltenham meeting - but as with the Scilly Isles chase, it looks nearly impossible to unravel…

Bottomless under foot conditions won’t be an issue for either Bristol de Mai or Native River - though it’s possible the track might be !
In fairness, Bristol has previously won over the course - though that was 5 years ago !
There’s no reason to think he won’t handle it - even if it provides a very different test to his beloved Haydock !
Bizarrely, Native River has never previously run at Sandown.
Again, there is no particular reason for thinking he won’t handle it - though he is also better known for his exploits at galloping tracks…
Santini has won over tomorrows course and distance - and should also have no issue with the ground.
However, the form of the win was relatively poor - and I really can’t see him being unduly punished tomorrow, with the Gold cup very much his target for the season.
Saint Calvados is running in this race in order to establish what his target for the season will be…
Originally a 2 miler, he was stepped up with success, to 2m4f last season - and tried 3 miles for the first time, in this seasons King George.
He appeared not to stay that day - but equally, may have needed the run (it was his seasonal debut).
We’ll learn lots more about his stamina tomorrow - because 3 miles in the mud, is going to take some getting !
Yala Enki will have no issue with the trip - in fact, it might not be far enough for him !
He’s a thoroughly admirable stayer - and whilst he’s a little shy of Gold cup class, his ability to handle conditions will be a big plus.
It will also be in his favour that connections won’t be protecting him for another day - whilst the 6lb he receives from all of his rivals bar Saint Calvados, will help…

2:55

Alnadam has been installed the early favourite for this - and it’s hard to disagree…
He was really impressive when winning over the course and distance, early in December, in what was a strong contest.
He disappointed on his subsequent run at Kempton over Christmas - but didn’t seemed as well suited to that sharper track and quicker ground.
Back at Sandown on very soft ground, he is likely to take all the beating…
Benetar is being supported against him - and again, it’s easy enough to see why.
He is potentially very well handicapped - and ran a massive race on his seasonal reappearance in December, when third to Chatham Street Lad.
That’s top class handicap form - and showed he retains all of his ability.
His trainer, Gary Moore, always targets Sandown races - but having to carry 12st 1lb in heavy ground, is a huge ask…
Doitforthevillage was a good winner over course and distance, at the beginning of January.
He’d been out of form for a long time prior to that win and his handicap mark had plummeted as a result.
It’s a little surprising that he was only raised 2lb for the win - as that leaves him on a very competitive mark.
The issue with him, is his age - as he is now 12. However, he’s clearly in good form and will relish conditions.
It’s a similar story with Gardefort.
He bounced back to form at Ascot in December, having shown nothing for a very long time.
He didn’t quite manage to win that day - but it was a stronger race than the one won by Doitforthevillage.
However, he was very disappointing a couple of weeks later, when pulled up at Wincanton.
It will very much depend on which Gardefort turns up - but if its the one who ran so well at Ascot, then he will prove very hard to beat.
Colorado Doc is the final one worthy of mention.
I quite fancied him on his most recent run, in a decent contest at Ascot - but he fell at the very first fence.
That seemed a little bit out of character - and he can certainly be given a chance, based on his previous form.
It’s also interesting that his best run was on heavy ground, so he shouldn’t have an issue with the underfoot conditions.

3:30

Ask me Early has been installed a short priced favourite for this - arguably to short !
In fairness, he is a progressive novice, who has looked impressive in winning both of his chase starts this season - but as a consequence, his mark is rising and he faces his stiffest test to date, tomorrow.
He may be up to it - but there are enough question marks over him, to suggest a degree of caution…
Coo Star Sivola caught my eye last time, when staying on late behind Double Shuffle, at Kempton.
That was his third run back after a very long break - and seemed to suggest that plenty of his former ability remains.
At his peak, he won at the Cheltenham, festival off a mark of 142.
He runs tomorrow off a mark of 135 - so could be very well handicapped.
He’s still only 9 - whilst the Cheltenham win was achieved on heavy ground
Kiltealy Brig is interesting, as a novice making his handicap debut in open company.
He likes to make the running, so whilst in theory his jumping could be tested by more experienced opponents - if he is out of trouble at the head of affairs, that’s not going to happen !
His best form is also on heavy ground - so he should have no issue with conditions.
Deise Aba was a good winner of this race 12 months ago - and should have every chance of following up from a mark just 2lb higher.
He ran well at the Cheltenham festival - however, he has been pulled up on both of his runs this season.
As a consequence, he now has plenty to prove - but if the first time cheek pieces have the desired effect, then he has ticks in all of the boxes.
Cases can be made for all 4 of the other runners, meaning that this is another race which is particularly tricky to solve…

Musselburgh

There don’t appear to be any issues weather-wise, for Musselburgh on Saturday - though Sunday may be a different matter !
The ground is described as ‘soft’ - but I would expect it to ride slightly better than that…

2:05

Christopher Ward bounced back to form last time, when second in a decent handicap at Kempton, over the Christmas period.
That was a notable improvement on the form he had shown in his first 2 races this season and suggested he is back to his best.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, in February - and whilst he will be running tomorrow off a mark 8lb higher, Angus Cheledas 7lb claim offsets most of that rise.
With conditions seemingly ideal, he is likely to take a bit of beating…
Torigni finished just behind Christopher Ward at Kempton and as he’s a pound better off tomorrow, in theory there should be little between the pair.
However, that ignores Cheledas claim: whilst the form of Harry Whittingtons stable (his last 60 runners have all lost) has to detract from the chance of Torigni.
Ashington is the other one of major interest.
He was second to Sebastapol in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and runs off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow.
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October - before disappointing badly last time at Doncaster.
The booking of Oakley Brown catches the eye (particularly with the Dublin Racing festival taking place in his native Ireland) - though Kevin Brogan was booked at Doncaster, which was equally eye catching !
Newtown Boy, Blakeney Point and Voix de Reve can each be given a chance: however they are all pretty exposed, and the handicapper should therefore have a good handle on them.

3:45

This really does look like the last chance saloon for Le Breuil…
The horse is being targeted at the Grand National - but his current handicap rating of 140, means he’s little hope of getting in the race.
He needs to win tomorrow - and win well - to get a rating rise which gives him a chance of making the cut.
The National weights are announced next week, so after an unsuccessful run at Warwick 3 weeks ago, this really is his last chance.
In theory, it’s a good chance.
Tomorrows race is much weaker than the races he tends to contest.
Whilst he will also be suited by returning to 4 miles, for the first time since his win at the Cheltenham festival, 2 seasons back.
On the flip side, he is tending to get outpaced in his races (even over extreme distances) - and it could simply be the case, that he’s not quick enough, regardless of trip…
The Ferry Master is a very different beast.
He is still a novice and tomorrows race will only be his third over fences.
He’s shown improvement on each outing - and his win at Newcastle last time, suggested he will have no issues with tomorrows trip.
Dino Bay is little more experienced - though he has only 5 previous chase runs to his name.
On the most recent of those, he was a very game winner of the borders National.
That race showed he is well suited by marathon trips - and it’s quite likely he has been targeted at tomorrows contest.
Billy Bronco looks quite attractively handicapped, on his second run for Dr Newland.
Formerly trained by Evan Williams, he showed little on his first run for Dr Newland at Warwick in November - but did much better next time at Hereford, when finishing  second.
He’ll need to improve again if he is to feature tomorrow - but he would hardly be the first horse that the good doctor has worked the oracle on !

Jan 30th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Doncaster

2:40
Fern Hill 3 units win 10/1

3:15
Yorkhill 5 units win 22/1
Boldmere 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Doncaster

3:15
Yorkhill 0.5pt win 22/1

What a frustrating day !

Firstly, the weather robbed us of the Cheltenham trials meeting - leaving just a couple of races of interest, at Doncaster.
With one of those looking a minefield, I focused on the Sky bet chase - and thought I’d found a decent bet in the race, in the shape of Yorkhill.
However, he knocked a joint this morning and was declared a NR moments after I’d issued the suggested bets !

As a result, there are no Best bets on the day - and just a couple of small ones for the Matrix.

Here’s the rationale…


Doncaster

Clearly, Shishkin should win the 1:30.
It appears to be simply a case of him jumping round and handling the ground.
If he fails on either score, then Cheddleton should be the one to take advantage.
He can be backed at 14 on the exchanges, which is probably a fair enough price…

If Miranda had been 7/2 this morning, I would have been tempted to put her up in the 2:05.
That said, I was kind of glad she wasn’t as I wouldn’t have felt comfortable doing so !
My head says she has a good chance - backed up by the figures.
However, I have concerns about her ability to handle the ground/track.
I’ve also got concerns about the 2 other markets leaders - but can’t really take to any of the outsiders.
On balance, it has to be a watching race…

The 2:40 looks very open.
The winner is likely to produce a personal best - but all of the runners have the potential to do just that.
I think Fern Hill is the one with the greatest scope - and at 10/1, he’s worth a small play on the Matrix.
That said, I’ll be looking to cover a few of the other runners during the day, if/when their price drifts…
Pats Fancy and Ashtown Lad are of particular interest - if I can get a decent price (I’m targeting 9 on the former and 10.5 on the latter)

The Sky bet chase (3:15) has already been a very frustrating race !
I missed the early price on Musical Slave; and whilst I got it on Yorkhill, he was subsequently taken out of the race.
I may well have switched allegiance to Boldmere - but his price also crashed this morning (though I did manage to suggest him for the Matrix before it went completely).
I would be interested in Musical Slave at 6/1+ (and that might happen); whilst Cap du Nord, Canelo and One for the Team, could also become interesting, if their prices drift sufficiently.
I’ll look at the race again later, on the Live thread…