Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival - and I don’t know about you, but I could do
with a break !
The racing doesn’t look as good on Friday as it does on
Thursday - and I doubt I’ll be able to find as many bets.
Things
certainly tail off a bit after the Gold Cup, so if we’re not ahead by then, it
could be a long afternoon !
Here’s the early thoughts…
Cheltenham
1:20 As has been the case for most
of the novice events this week, there are only 3 who warrant serious
consideration in this…
Zanahiyr has been favourite for the race, since
destroying Saint Sam at Fairyhouse in November.
At the time Saint Sam was
considered Willie Mullins best juvenile - but Zanahiyr beat him by 14 lengths.
He then followed up by winning the Knight Frank juvenile hurdle at
Leopardstown over Christmas.
Saint Sam again finished well behind him that
day - along with Jeff Kidder.
As the pair of them fought out the finish to
the Boodles juvenile handicap on Tuesday, it suggests the form is strong.
Zanahiyr hasn’t been seen since then - but I suspect that was always the
plan.
The application of a first time tongue tie, is a slight concern - but
he still looks the one to beat.
Tritonic briefly deposed him at the head of
the market, following a really impressive win in the Adonis hurdle at Kempton
last month.
He’s a very useful flat horse (rated 99) - and it looks like
he’s going to be just as good over hurdles.
The drying ground should suit
him and he’s a worthy opponent for Zanahiyr.
So too is Quilixios.
He was
very impressive when wining the grade 1 Spring juvenile hurdle, at the Dublin
Racing festival.
He beat Saint Sam by over 5 lengths that day, which
suggests he’s not vastly inferior to Zanahiyr.
However, when the pair were
trained by Gordon Elliott, Zanahiyr was considered the best - and by some
margin.
Whilst switching to Henry de Bromhead is unlikely to be much of a
negative for Quilixios, I can’t see it bringing about significant improvement…
It’s really hard to see anything outside the top 3 in the betting, getting
involved.
Adagio is next in the market - but he really doesn’t look good
enough.
And whilst it’s interesting that Willie Mullins has chosen this race
for the debut of Haut en Couleurs, it probably just suggests that he’s not got a
particularly strong hand of juveniles…
1:55This years
County hurdle doesn’t look particularly easy to solve ! (like it ever is !)
Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have both got excellent records in the
race (they;ve won the last 6 renewals between them), so it’s not too surprising
that representatives from their stables head the betting.
Both Ganapathi and
Third Time Lucki, are unexposed novices, who could be a fair way ahead of the
handicapper.
Ganapathi’s most recent run was in a grade 1 event at the
Dublin Racing festival, won by Gaillard du Mesnil.
Ganapathi finished well
beaten that day - but it’s quite possible that he simply didn’t stay the 2m6f
trip.
Dropped back to the minimum distance tomorrow, he could easily put up
a much improved effort.
Third TIme Lucki disappointed on his most recent run
at Musselburgh - and he will need to bounce back from that.
However, he ran
second to For Pleasure over course and distance in November - having been given
far too much to do.
For Pleasure really franked that form on Tuesday, when
finishing third in the Supreme hurdle.
If that can be taken at face value,
Third time Lucki will be hard to beat.
Outside of the main two, then plenty
can be given half chances, though nothing particularly jumps out.
Eclair de
Beaufeu would have gone close to winning this race under a more judicious ride,
a couple of year ago. That was off a 3lb lower mark than he races off tomorrow…
He also ran an excellent second on the Grand Annual last season - and that
was off a mark 11lb higher !
Suffice to say, he is handicapped to run a big
race.
Fifty Ball finished runner up in the Betfair hurdle on his most recent
outing - and should again run well, off a 4lb higher mark; whilst Milkwood is
one that I’ve had on my radar for a while - though he ran disappointingly in the
same race - and for no obvious reason.
Petite Mouchoir and Le Patriote are
old timers who are quite interesting, off realistic marks.
Both ran in last
seasons Champion hurdle - with Petite Mouchoir finishing an honourable fifth.
This is quite a step down in grade - and it’s interesting that both will be
partnered by 7lb claimers.
Great minds, maybe…
2:30
After a series of high class novice races so far this week - things
take a bit of a downward turn in this race !
It’s often the weakest of
the 3 novice hurdles run at the festival - but that seems particularly the case
this year.
The first and second favourites are Stattler and Fakiera - but
they couldn’t get within hailing distance of Gaillard du Mesnil last time - and
he was comprehensively put in his place by Bob Olinger in the Ballymore on
Wednesday.
Ofcourse they could massively improve for the step up in trip
tomorrow - and Fakiera was certainly staying on strongly at the end of that
race.
However, my feeling is that they don’t set an insurmountable standard
- suggesting the race could be quite open.
Barbados Bucks is next in the
market - but he just won a modest race at Kempton last time.
He was quoted
at 50/1 for this race, immediately afterwards - but has subsequently been
strongly supported.
Part of that will be down to his breeding - as he is
closely related to the legendary Big Bucks.
However, in terms of actual
performances on the track, he still has a lot to prove.
Adrimal and
Alaphilippe arguably have the best form in the book, as winners of grade 2
events.
Both put up good performances in doing so, with Alaphilippe coasting
home at Haydock and Adrimal showing real battling qualities to win at Warwick.
Both could easily improve again - and if they do so, they would have every
chance.
The Cob is another who won a grade 2 event last time.
He bolted
up at Doncaster when completely unfancied.
There seemed no fluke about his
win - though he probably didn’t beat very much.
N’Golo and Streets of Doyen
are the final 2 worthy of mention.
N’Golo won a grade 3 over 2 miles in
November - but only by virtue of his staying power.
He’s been woefully
outpaced on 3 subsequent runs over the minimum trip and it’s no surprise to see
him significantly stepped up in distance tomorrow.
Streets of Doyen won over
tomorrows course and distance in October - but then wasn’t seen until last
month.
That was in a grade 2 race over 2 miles - a distance which he
predictably found too short.
Stepped back up to 3 miles tomorrow, I would
expect him to put up a much better effort.
3:05 It’s
quite amazing to think that Al Boom Photo will become a triple Gold cup winner,
if he is successful tomorrow.
That will put him in an elite band.
Only Best Mate (my favourite ever horse !) has achieved the feat in modern
times: and before that, you have to go back to Arkle, Cottage Rake and Golden
Miller.
They are all equine greats - not a term I’d associate with Al Boom
Photo !
In truth, he’s going to have his work cut out to even confirm
the form with the horses he beat last year.
He scrambled home by a neck from
Santini, 12 months ago - and in a first time visor tomorrow, the runner up has a
real chance of reversing the form.
Whatever, he certainly shouldn’t be 4
times the price of the favourite.
Lostintraslation was just a length further
back in third that day - and jumping the last, looked the most likely winner.
He’s been disappointing this season - and is beginning to run out of excuses
- but I wouldn’t want to be laying him at 33/1, back on suitably quick ground.
Ofcourse this is not just a 3 horse race - as there are plenty of new kids
on the block, who are likely to really put it up to the old guard.
Chief
amongst them is Santini’s stablemate, Champ.
He’s a very talented horse,
who’s win in last years RSA, had to be seen to be believed !
He got up in
the shadows on the post to deny Minella Indo.
There is nothing between the
pair of them, based on that run - but Minella Indo is now 3 times the price of
Champ.
Minella Indo was second favourite for this race until he fell at
Leopardstown over Christmas.
A subsequent disappointing run in the Irish
Gold cup - coupled with Rachael Blackmore deserting him for A Plus Tard, now
means that he’s drifted out to quite an attractive price.
He’s a very
talented horse - who is young enough to still be improving - and has a first and
second placing to his name, from the last 2 festivals.
A Plus Tard has also
got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the novice handicap 2 years
ago: before finishing a very close third in the Ryanair last year.
However,
he took his form to a new level, when winning the John Durkan at Leopardstown
over Christmas.
That was his first run over 3 miles and he relished it:
staying on strongly to deprive Kemboy close home.
He’s still only 7 - and
therefore has plenty of scope for improvement - particularly over the longer
trip.
I think he’s the one to beat - though there isn’t much margin in his
current price…
Royal Pagaille is the final one of interest - and he’s really
fascinating contender.
He hacked up in a competitive handicap at Kempton
over Christmas off a mark of 140 - and then did exactly the same again at
Haydock a month later, off a mark 16lb higher !
He’s now rated 166 - which
puts him within a few pounds of the main protagonists - and clearly on a steep
upward curve.
His form lines are completely different to all of his rivals -
so he’s very hard to assess.
That said, it may be a mistake to
under-estimate him…
3:40 The Hunter Chase is a race I’ve
always liked - but it’s just not going to be the same this year, with
professional riders.
The amateur jockeys were always a big part of its charm
- but it is what it is…
It Came to Pass was a shock winner of the race
12 months ago, when he got the better of favourite, Billaway.
There seemed
no fluke about the result - and in a way, it’s therefore a bit surprising that
Billaway is strongly fancied to reverse the form tomorrow.
That said, he is
the younger horse - and with It Came to Pass now 11, there’s a chance he is in
slight decline.
Billaway has also shown the much better form, in the
intervening period.
He can boast a second and 2 wins: whereas It Came to
Pass has finished fourth (behind Billaway) and unseated.
However, it’s all
about the big day - and it can certainly be argued that It Came to pass is the
value call at 3 times the price.
Ofcourse this is not just a 2 horse race…
Bob and Co sits between Billaway and It Came to Pass, in the betting,
following wins in his last 3 outings.
He could easily be unbeaten in his 4
runs in the UK, as he proved unrideable on his British debut and was pulled up.
That not been such an issue since - but he’s a very free going sort who will
certainly be helped by the presence of Sean Bowen in the saddle, as opposed to
his normal owner/ride, David Maxwell.
Red Indian is next in the betting -
and he’s definitely of interest.
He still only 9 - and was still showing
very useful form under rules, just 12 months ago.
I don’t know why he has
switched to hunting - but he’s won his first 2 PTPs, suggesting he retains all
of his ability.
If that’s the case, then he should be capable of going
close.
Beyond the head of the market, then it’s very difficult to assess
many of the runners.
Mr Mantilla, Latenightpass, Law of Gold and Salvatore
are all relatively young horses with good form in PTPs.
However, how that
will translate to a race like this, is anyones guess…
4:15This will be the first ever running of the mares
chase - and it has attracted a modest enough field of 11.
Perhaps it will
improve over time…
Prior to the start of this years meeting, Willie
Mullins had trained the winner of 14 of the 18 mares only races, run at the
festival - and there’s a fair chance he will improve that record, as he trains
the top two in the market for this.
Elimay is a short priced favourite.
She has won 3 of her 4 races over fences - her only defeat coming when she
lost out to Allaho at Thurles in January.
There was no disgrace in that
however, as the winner is rated 162 - and is the favourite for this afternoons
Ryanair chase.
Elimay was only beaten 3 lengths, in receipt of just 2lb -
and if she can run to that level tomorrow, she is likely to prove hard to beat.
On her latest outing, Elimay handed out a 5 length beating to Shattered
Love.
She will meet that one on 2lb better terms tomorrow, suggesting that
the runner up has little chance of revenge.
However, the 2 mile trip that
day would have been far too short for Shattered Love and I would expect her to
perform much better, stepped up by half a mile.
She was really impressive
when winning a grade 1 chase at the festival 3 years ago - and if she’s back
anywhere near that level of form, she will go very close.
Colreevy is the
second Willie Mullins representative in the race (and the second favourite).
She was a good winner of an open grade 1 novice chase at Limerick over
Christmas - and followed that up with a comfortable win in mares grade 2 race at
Thurles, the following month.
Both of those races were over 2m4f so she will
have no issue with tomorrows trip - however she seemed to relish the heavy
ground on both occasions, so the likely quicker ground tomorrow is a concern.
On official ratings, Magic of Light is the best horse in the race.
However, the 2m4f trip is a bare minimum for her - and she is likely to be
using this race primarily as a stepping stone for a tilt at the Grand National
(she finished second in the race in 2019).
As a consequence, Zambella may be
the most interesting of those at longer prices.
She won her first 3 chases
this season - before finding Annie Mc too good last time at Warwick.
There
was no shame in that, as the winner is a good horse, who would have had a fair
chance in this race (she was a late defector).
Zambella does have a bit to
find on official ratings with the market leaders - but she’s only 6, and still
improving - so it’s quite possible that she will run better than the ratings
suggest.
4:50 The final race of a long week - and they
really couldn’t have found a more suitable minefield for the ‘getting out
stakes’ !
I have to be honest and say that I didn’t look at this race in
great detail at the 5 day stage (as I did for many of the other races).
There were still almost 100 possibles at that point - many of whom were
doubly declared.
I did pick out a few of potential interest - but only one
of those has made the final field…
That one is Gentleman de Mee - and he
is the early favourite ! (impressive spotting, from me !).
The problem with
him, is that he’s impossible to assess.
He’s only run 3 times in his life -
twice in his native France - and then last time, on his debut for Willie Mullins
at Naas.
He hacked up that day, at odds of 2/7 - but what the form is worth,
is anyones guess,
The case for him is built around the fact that Willie
Mullins has chosen to throw him into this race - and generally speaking, he
tends to get these kind of calls right…
There’s a real chance that the horse
is much better than his opening mark of 139 - but the likes of you can only
guess as to whether that is the case…
Less guessing is required with second
favourite, Langer Dan.
He dotted up in the Imperial cup on Saturday - and is
5lb ‘well in’ under his 5lb penalty tomorrow,
There is a question mark over
whether he will have fully recovered from a race just 6 days earlier - but he
won so easily, he didn’t seem to have a hard race.
It’s quite likely that
Dan Skelton has had this as the aim for quite some time - and there are few
better at pulling off such plans.
Galopin des Champs is third in the betting
- and like Gentleman de Mee, trained by Willie Mullins and nearly impossible to
assess.
He’s run 3 times for Mullins - the last twice in graded company.
On his most recent start, he was beaten 10 lengths by Appreciate It in a
grade 1 at the Dublin Racing festival.
Taken at face value, that would have
seen him finish runner up in Tuesdays Supreme novice - and would likely see him
win this race off a mark of 142…
Outside the top 3 in the betting, there are
lots who could be given half chances - but nothing that particularly stands
out.
David Pipe saddles 3 in the race named in honour of his father - and
whilst he’s never won it previously, he does look to have a fair chance.
Jockey bookings suggest Leoncavello is the best of his runners - though the
unexposed Matinhall also looks quite interesting.
