Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival - and we now have a good idea of how the ground will be riding.
Quite quick !In fact I wouldn’t be overly surprised if they watered tonight - so I’ll need to keep an eye out for that…
Thursdays racing should offer better betting opportunities than the first 2 days - with 5 races of potential interest.
Ofcourse that’s assuming someone else doesn’t get in first and mess up the prices !!
Cheltenham
1:20
I’m a little surprised to see that 7 horses are prepared to take on Envoi Allen in this !
Unbeaten in 10 runs under rules - and already a dual festival winner - I expected him frighten off most of the opposition.
But not a bit of it !
I’m not sure why they are all being so brave: maybe it’s as much about avoiding Shishkin and Monkfish (talk about stuck between a couple of rocks and a hard place !).
Whether any of them will be up to the task remains to be seen - though I don’t think I’ll be betting on it.
Shan Blue is arguably the best of the opposition.
He won the grade 1 Kauto star novice chase at Kempton over Christmas - and is an exceptional jumper.
He was beaten last time in the Scilly Isles chase at Sandown - but that race was run on desperate ground.
I would expect him to be much better suited by the quicker ground he will encounter tomorrow.
Nicky Henderson runs both Chantry House and Fusil Raffles - and I could see both running well.
Chantry House finished third in last years Supreme hurdle (behind Shishkin and Abrcadabras) and on that run, has a good chance of at least placing.
However, he was soundly beaten by Fusil Raffles when the pair clashed over the course and distance, in December.
I don’t think Chantry House gave his running that day - but he still probably shouldn’t be half the price of Fussil Raffles.
Chatham Street Lad is probably the most interesting of the Irish challengers (aside from Envoi Allen !).
He absolutely bolted up in the Caspian Caviar gold cup, over course and distance in December.
That was a handicap - and he was running off a mark of 141 - but the suggestion was, that he could be a graded horse.
However, even if that is the case, he will have to be a particularly good graded horse, if he’s to beat Envoi Allen !
The other 3 Irish horses are all useful - but haven’t really shown sufficient to suggest they will be capable of winning this prize.
That said, a step up in distance could easily bring about improvement in both Blackbow and Darver Star - and considering the latter finished third in last years Champion hurdle, that could make him interesting.
1:55
A maximum field of 24, will face the starter for the final of the Pertemps series - though I’m not sure it’s quite as competitive as the numbers suggest…
Imperial Alkazar and The Bosses Oscar head the market - but after big runs in their respective qualifiers, both horses find themselves on much higher marks and close to the head of the weights (The Bosses Oscar will be carrying top weight).
It doesn’t mean that neither can will - but it’s not an ideal situation for them.
Champagne Platinum has a more attractive profile.
He has returned to hurdles this season, following a slightly disappointing season over fences.
He’s run a couple of nice races over the smaller obstacles - and there is probably some scope in his handicap mark.
Come on Teddy is also of interest.
He was a good winner over course and distance in December - and he ran a nice enough race on his only subsequent outing, when third to Imperial Alkazar at Warwick.
He’s 8lb better off with the winner, for 5 lengths - and I suspect that will be sufficient for him to reverse the form.
Mrs Milner ran well when finishing runner up to On the Blind side, over course and distance in December.
She will be 4lb higher tomorrow - but I suspect she still has scope off her current mark.
Southfield Harvest has edged up the ratings, following a few good runs - but he is still unexposed and has plenty of potential.
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is also an interesting move - provided they don’t cause him to do too much.
Of the outsiders, then Bushypark is quite interesting - despite having risen almost 50lb in the ratings this season !
He was hammered in the betting (resulting in a subsequent enquiry) when winning off a mark of 83 at Hexham in November: but was just as impressive when winning the Haydock qualifier for this series off a mark of 120, last month.
His improvement will level out at some point - but even off 132 tomorrow, I couldn’t discount him.
Everglow is the other outsider of particular interest.
He finished 11 lengths behind Bushypark at Haydock - but will be 12lb better off at the weights tomorrow.
That should mean that there is little between them - and Everglow still has scope for improvement, after just 5 runs over hurdles.
2:30
Whilst the fields for a few of the conditions races at this years festival haven’t been quite as strong as they might have been - that’s certainly not the case for the Ryanair !
The field is strong both numerically - and in terms of quality - and it’s not surprising that the bookmakers betting 5/1 the field…
Last years winner, Min, is back to defend his crown - and whilst he will doubtless put up a good performance, this looks a stronger race than 12 months ago - and he’s now 10.
Whilst that doesn’t mean he’s in decline - he almost certainly isn’t improving - and he only scrambled home by a neck, 12 months ago.
The horse he beat that day was Saint Calvados - and he will be re-opposing tomorrow.
He’s 2 years younger than Min - so he could still be improving.
He travelled very strongly on his seasonal debut in the King George - before not getting home.
He then fell, when looking beaten at Sandown, in the rescheduled Cotswold chase.
Both of those races were over 3 miles - but he cuts back to 2m4f tomorrow - and I think that’s a good move.
Despite his price, he sets the race standard.
Allaho is just about race favourite - but I can’t have that.
He’s a good horse - but he’s not outstanding - and it’s interesting that Paul Townend has elected to ride Min ahead of him.
Imperial Aura is interesting.
He beat Galvin at last years festival - and looked good in 2 races this season, before unseating at Kempton on his most recent outing.
However, this will be by far the strongest test he’s faced, and it remains to be seen how he will cope.
Samcro edged out Melon in a thrilling finish to the Marsh chase last year - with Mister Fisher back in fourth and Tornado Flyer fifth.
The winner hasn’t gone on at all this season - and I would expect Melon to take his revenge.
That said, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Mister Fisher beat them both.
The race didn’t fall right for him last year - but he looked very impressive when beating Kalashnikov over course and distance, last time.
He needs good ground to be seen at his best - but if he gets it, then he will be a danger to everything.
Tornado Flyer is the outsider of the entire field - but I would expect him to run better than his price suggests.
I’d also expect Chris’s Dream to run better than his price suggests.
It must be some race, if he’s a 33/1 shot (which he is !).
Fakir Doudaries and Dashel Dasher can’t be completely ruled out - but I’ll be surprised if either is up to winning.
This really is an incredibly strong race !
3:05
Paisley Park has been installed quite a short priced favourite to reclaim his stayers crown.
He won the race in 2019 - but disappointed badly when an odds on favourite for the race last season.
It subsequently transpired that he was suffering from an irregular heart beat - and he’s bounced right back to form with 2 big performances this season.
First time out at Newbury he was narrowly defeated by Thyme Hill; but then gained his revenge on that horse when edging him out at Ascot in December.
Unfortunately, Thyme Hill was taken out of this race at the weekend - thereby depriving us of the ‘decider’ and also making Paisley Parks task a fair bit easier.
That said, he is now 9 - and therefore could be vulnerable to an improver.
Sire de Berlais is not an improver.
He’s won the Pertemps final at the past 2 festivals - and is now, understandably upped to championship level.
The time he recorded when winning last year, compared favourably with the time of the stayers hurdle - and I would expect him to be at his peak again tomorrow.
However, he will need to be if he’s to reverse form with Flooring Porter.
The 2 met at Leopardstown over Christmas and Flooring Porter came out on top by almost 7 lengths.
That was a huge step up on anything he’d achieved previously - but as an improving 6 year old, that was always a possibility.
He’ll need to improve again, if he’s going to capture this prize - but that could well happen.
Lisnagar Oscar was a shock winner of this race 12 months ago - and whilst he disappointed on his first 2 runs this season, he performed much better last time.
That was in a grade 2 at Haydock - and he was very strong at the finish on unsuitably soft ground.
Tomorrows quicker ground will suit him much better - and he’s likely to put in a strong defence of his crown.
Fury Road finished third to Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett at last years festival - and that is particularly strong form.
He’s not run up to that level in 3 outings this season - but a return to Cheltenham
may see him bounce back.
He was narrowly beaten by Beacon Edge at Navan last time - but that was over 2m5f.
Back up in trip, I would expect Fury Road to reverse the form.
None of the outsiders make particular appeal - so I suspect this race will be won by a relatively well fancied horse.
3:40
This race is likely to revolve around The Shunter…
A really impressive winner of the Greatwood hurlde in November, he returned to the UK earlier this month to collect the Moorebattle hurdle at Kelso.
Victory in that race, qualified him for a potential £100K bonus - if he can win any race at Cheltenham.
He was entered for 4 of them - but this always struck me as his best option - so it’s interesting connections have gone the same way.
Obviously its a very different test to the 2 races he’s previously won in the UK - but I think he will benefit from the extra half mile, whilst his fencing looked pretty sound, when he ran third at the Dublin racing festival (over 2 miles).
It’s very interesting to see that connections have book top 7lb claimer Jordan Gainford. They are clearly intend on giving the horse every possible chance - and who can blame them !
I suspect he’ll take a bit of beating…
A wave of the Sea beat The Shunter at Leopardstown - and in theory is only a pound worse off for 3 lengths.
In theory that shouldn’t be enough for The Shunter to reverse the form.
However, A wave of the Sea was claimer ridden that day - but Mark Walsh takes over tomorrow; whilst it’s the reverse situation for The Shunter. That equates to an additional 12lb difference - and coupled with the extra distance (which I think will suit The Shunter better) means it’s highly likely that The Shunter will reverse the form…
Fils Doudaries was destroyed by Monkfish last time - but prior to that, he gave Envoi Allen half a fright at Punchestown.
In fairness, it was only for a moment - and Envoi Allen soon had the race under control - but all the same…
If the Envoi Allen form could be taken anywhere near face value, then off a mark of 145, Fils Doudaries would be hard to beat.
The UK defence doesn’t look overly strong - which is a little surprising.
Caribean Boy is the shortest non-Irish horse in the betting - but he will need to bounce back after a couple of disappointing runs.
Sully Doc AA is of more interest.
He was a good winner at Ascot on his seasonal debut - and followed that up by finishing third to Clondaw castle at Newbury.
The winner has really franked that form - and back from a break, I could see Sully Doc AA running very well.
Coole Cody won the Paddy Power Gold cup in November - and ran quite well at Kempton last time, on his return from a break.
If that has put him spot on, then he must have a chance from a mark only 6lb higher.
Smarty Wild is the final one of interest.
He was a good winner on his penultimate outing at Kempton, before disappointing slightly at Warwick last time.
However, I’m not sure that the Warwick track really suited him - so he can perhaps be forgiven that run.
That said, Cheltenham may not suit him either, as he does tend to hit a few !
4:15
Of all the races run during the week, this one probably interests me the least !
I can appreciate the need for mares races (just about !) - but a novice mares race, at the Cheltenham festival, does seem a step too far…
Anyway !
The 4 main protagonists in the race, all have form tied in together.
On her penultimate run, Royal Kahana beat Hook up; she herself was then beaten by Rosies Hollow, with the hitherto unbeaten Gauloise, back in third.
There’s very little between the 4 of them - and to an extent, it’s a case of you pay your money and make your choice.
My choice would be Rosies Hollow - as I was impressed with her last time.
She is worse off at the weights with the 2 that finished behind her - but that might not enable them to reverse the form.
Away from the head of the market, then Skyace is the one that interests me most.
She’s been a big priced winner of her 2 most recent starts - and is clearly a mare on the improve.
I could see her being a relatively big price again tomorrow - and that might make her of some interest.
Telmesomethinggirl is the final one worthy of a mention.
She did well to finish third last time, at the Dublin Racing festival, having been hampered by a faller.
She represents the same connections who took the Champion hurdle with Honeysuckle - and whilst she might not be quite in her class, she won’t need to be, to win this race !
4:50
With the amateur jockeys missing, the Kim Muir looks a bit out of place at the festival.
A fair class 2 handicap chase - it now looks like the kind of race you would see most Saturday afternoons during the winter…
Deise Aba is the early favourite, after storming back to form in first time cheek pieces at Sandown last time.
I dare say he will run OK - but he finished fifth in this race last season, when running off the same mark as tomorrow - and I’ll be a little surprised if he betters that…
Hold the Note is more interesting.
He finished a good third in the novice handicap chase at last years festival - and gets to run off a mark 5lb lower tomorrow.
That’s because prior to his last run, he disappointed this season.
However, he ran much better last time at Newbury, following a wind op.
If the improvement is maintained, he looks the one to beat.
Mount Ida looks a big danger.
She beat Scarlet and Dove at Cork in December - and that one has since won a couple of graded races.
She then finished second to Colreevy - but that one had won a grade 1 on its previous outing !
Off a mark of 142, Mount Ida looks potentially well handicapped.
Plan of Attack could also be well handicapped, on a mark 2lb lower than when fourth in this race last year (on which form, he holds Diese Aba).
He’s disappointed in 3 runs this season - but blinkers replace cheek pieces - and if they have the desired effect, he will go close.
Shantou Flyer is another who could be potentially very well handicapped, on his third run for Paul Nichols.
He’s twice finished runner up at the festival in the past - including off a mark 12lb higher.
On the flip side, he’s now 11, so possibly in slight decline.
Milanford is interesting, as a sound jumping novice, making his handicap debut in open company.
He’s not easy to assess - but an opening mark of 138 doesn’t look overly harsh.
Kilfilum Cross and Bob Mahler filled the places in the race 12 months ago (ahead of Plan of attack and Diese Aba) - and will be running tomorrow of lower marks.
That’s because they’ve both been badly out of form - but if a return to Cheltenham
perks them up, they are clearly weighted to go very close.
All in all, a potentially very trappy race !
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