Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
2:30
Guard your Dreams 6 units win 9/1
Koshari 2 units win 10/1
Our Power 1 unit win 66/1
Thomas Darby 1 unit win 14/1
3:05
Rouge Vif 2 units win 25/1
4:15
Moonlighter 3 units win 20/1
On the Slopes 2 units win 20/1
Chosen Mate 2 unit win 8/1
Zanza 2 units win 15/2
Ashutor 1 unit win 28/1
4:50
Three Stripe Life 2 units win 8/1
Ramilies 2 units win 12/1
Elle est Belle 1 unit win 20/1
Best bets
Cheltenham
2:30
Guard your Dreams 0.5pt win 9/1
The Wednesday of the festival is invariably the quietest day
of the week, from a betting perspective…
The cross country chase and the bumper don’t tend to help things: and this year, the 3 other conditions races on the card, have all got short priced favourites…
As a consequence, there are just the 2 handicaps that I can really have a go at - and I did intend to put up a Best bet in both.
However, at around 5:00pm yesterday evening, Hugh Taylor put up Moonlighter for the Grand Annual - and the 33/1 & 25/1 became 20/1 & 16/1.
As I’ve said plenty of times before, it’s something that happens to me on most tipping days - and Cheltenham is no different !
It’s the price I/we pay for me tipping later than all of the industry tipsters.
It’s a frustrating situation - but short of tipping much earlier/later, one I can’t avoid…
As a result, there is just one Best bet on the day (and its price has also been clipped a few points over the past 24 hours !) - and a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the rationale…
Cheltenham
The opening race on the card has looked a 3 cornered affair for quite some time - but the betting is now suggesting that only 2 of those count.
To be honest, I’m inclined to agree, as I do think that Bravemansgame is ‘next seasons’ horse.
As a consequence, it’s Gallaird du Mesnil or Bob Olinger.
The ‘right’ people seem to be supporting Bob - and I suspect he will come home in front.
Nobody is even bothering to try and oppose Monkfish in the 1:55 - and it’s hard to disagree.
He’s a sound jumping, strong galloper, who looks as if he’ll be perfectly suited to todays test.
In terms of what might chase him home, then that’s not quite so easy…
I’d probably just about side with Dickier Diver.
He’s likely to get a waiting ride - and provided he doesn’t get too far out of his ground, I could see him running on late to snatch a place (as Eldorado Allen did yesterday)
I like Guard your Dreams in the Coral Cup (2:30) - and make him the best bet of the day.
He was a real eye catcher in the Betfair hurdle - when he finished better than anything.
That run strongly suggested he’d improve for a step up in trip - and I’m pleased connections have viewed it the same way.
You always need a bit of luck in a race like this, so he’s worth protecting, via the Matrix.
The Nicky Henderson runners are the obvious place to look - but I wonder if there might be a slight issue in the stable. In the circumstances, I’m going to swerve them all (I originally planned to include Birchdale).
Koshari was a massive eye catcher last time - and he is worth covering; I also like Guard your Dreams stable mate, Our Power. He’s a huge price and definitely worth a saver.
Thomas Darby is the final one of interest. He’s the class horse in the race and the application of cheek pieces are an interesting move.
I don’t think he’s quite well enough handicapped to win - but the race might not take as much winning as is often the case.
It goes without saying, that Chacun Pour Soi should with the Champion chase (3:05).
However, he’s unproven outside Ireland - and I suspect he would also prefer softer ground.
In the circumstances, I think it’s worth taking a flyer on Rouge Vif for the Matrix.
He was hugely impressive when winning over course and distance in October - and good ground is the key to him.
He looks a different horse when the ground is riding quick - which I would expect to be the case this afternoon.
If I could have got even money on Easysland in the 3:40, you might have seen the first 2pt bet of the season !
However, if even money had been available, I would have been suspicious as to why...
All things being equal, he looks a near certainty to me: however, he has to travel over from France - and the ground might be quicker than he wants.
Both of those are unknowns which I couldn’t factor in - but which could have a big impact on his price.
If he stays strong in the market, expect him to win.
A rejuvenated Tiger Roll would look his only possible rival - with the rest of the runners rated at least a stone inferior to him.
As I mentioned in the intro, I had intended to make Moonlighter a Best bet in the 4:15 - until I was beaten to the punch.
It’s a competitive race - but he has a definite chance and odds on 25/1+ under-estimated that chance.
There may still be a bit of value in 16/1 - but it’s getting tighter…
As a consequence, he’s now just being covered on the Matrix - along with 4 others !
On the Slopes is another ‘value’ call in the race - having his second run after a wind op: whilst Zanza and Chosen Mate are the 2 I like best at the head of the market.
The former could be well treated, provided his jumping hold up; whilst the latter looks to have been targeted at the race, having won it last year. The booking of a top 7lb claimer for him, is particularly eye-catching.
The final one I want on side, is Ashutor.
He’s a progressive novice, trained by Paul Nichols - and 28/1, just looks too big a price.
I was reasonably committed to taking on the 2 market leaders in the bumper (4:50) on the grounds of ‘value’ - and I’ve stuck to my guns (at least for the Matrix !).
Clearly, either could win - but I just think they’ve been overbet…
I’m therefore taking them on with the next 3 in the betting.
Three Stripe Life is the one I like best - although his price is a bit tighter than it should be; I think Ramillies has a chance of reversing last time out form with Kilcruit; whilst Elle est Belle looks the best of the English challenge (helped by her sex allowance).
I’d rather spread a few units across the 3 of them, than side with either of the favourites…
The cross country chase and the bumper don’t tend to help things: and this year, the 3 other conditions races on the card, have all got short priced favourites…
As a consequence, there are just the 2 handicaps that I can really have a go at - and I did intend to put up a Best bet in both.
However, at around 5:00pm yesterday evening, Hugh Taylor put up Moonlighter for the Grand Annual - and the 33/1 & 25/1 became 20/1 & 16/1.
As I’ve said plenty of times before, it’s something that happens to me on most tipping days - and Cheltenham is no different !
It’s the price I/we pay for me tipping later than all of the industry tipsters.
It’s a frustrating situation - but short of tipping much earlier/later, one I can’t avoid…
As a result, there is just one Best bet on the day (and its price has also been clipped a few points over the past 24 hours !) - and a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the rationale…
Cheltenham
The opening race on the card has looked a 3 cornered affair for quite some time - but the betting is now suggesting that only 2 of those count.
To be honest, I’m inclined to agree, as I do think that Bravemansgame is ‘next seasons’ horse.
As a consequence, it’s Gallaird du Mesnil or Bob Olinger.
The ‘right’ people seem to be supporting Bob - and I suspect he will come home in front.
Nobody is even bothering to try and oppose Monkfish in the 1:55 - and it’s hard to disagree.
He’s a sound jumping, strong galloper, who looks as if he’ll be perfectly suited to todays test.
In terms of what might chase him home, then that’s not quite so easy…
I’d probably just about side with Dickier Diver.
He’s likely to get a waiting ride - and provided he doesn’t get too far out of his ground, I could see him running on late to snatch a place (as Eldorado Allen did yesterday)
I like Guard your Dreams in the Coral Cup (2:30) - and make him the best bet of the day.
He was a real eye catcher in the Betfair hurdle - when he finished better than anything.
That run strongly suggested he’d improve for a step up in trip - and I’m pleased connections have viewed it the same way.
You always need a bit of luck in a race like this, so he’s worth protecting, via the Matrix.
The Nicky Henderson runners are the obvious place to look - but I wonder if there might be a slight issue in the stable. In the circumstances, I’m going to swerve them all (I originally planned to include Birchdale).
Koshari was a massive eye catcher last time - and he is worth covering; I also like Guard your Dreams stable mate, Our Power. He’s a huge price and definitely worth a saver.
Thomas Darby is the final one of interest. He’s the class horse in the race and the application of cheek pieces are an interesting move.
I don’t think he’s quite well enough handicapped to win - but the race might not take as much winning as is often the case.
It goes without saying, that Chacun Pour Soi should with the Champion chase (3:05).
However, he’s unproven outside Ireland - and I suspect he would also prefer softer ground.
In the circumstances, I think it’s worth taking a flyer on Rouge Vif for the Matrix.
He was hugely impressive when winning over course and distance in October - and good ground is the key to him.
He looks a different horse when the ground is riding quick - which I would expect to be the case this afternoon.
If I could have got even money on Easysland in the 3:40, you might have seen the first 2pt bet of the season !
However, if even money had been available, I would have been suspicious as to why...
All things being equal, he looks a near certainty to me: however, he has to travel over from France - and the ground might be quicker than he wants.
Both of those are unknowns which I couldn’t factor in - but which could have a big impact on his price.
If he stays strong in the market, expect him to win.
A rejuvenated Tiger Roll would look his only possible rival - with the rest of the runners rated at least a stone inferior to him.
As I mentioned in the intro, I had intended to make Moonlighter a Best bet in the 4:15 - until I was beaten to the punch.
It’s a competitive race - but he has a definite chance and odds on 25/1+ under-estimated that chance.
There may still be a bit of value in 16/1 - but it’s getting tighter…
As a consequence, he’s now just being covered on the Matrix - along with 4 others !
On the Slopes is another ‘value’ call in the race - having his second run after a wind op: whilst Zanza and Chosen Mate are the 2 I like best at the head of the market.
The former could be well treated, provided his jumping hold up; whilst the latter looks to have been targeted at the race, having won it last year. The booking of a top 7lb claimer for him, is particularly eye-catching.
The final one I want on side, is Ashutor.
He’s a progressive novice, trained by Paul Nichols - and 28/1, just looks too big a price.
I was reasonably committed to taking on the 2 market leaders in the bumper (4:50) on the grounds of ‘value’ - and I’ve stuck to my guns (at least for the Matrix !).
Clearly, either could win - but I just think they’ve been overbet…
I’m therefore taking them on with the next 3 in the betting.
Three Stripe Life is the one I like best - although his price is a bit tighter than it should be; I think Ramillies has a chance of reversing last time out form with Kilcruit; whilst Elle est Belle looks the best of the English challenge (helped by her sex allowance).
I’d rather spread a few units across the 3 of them, than side with either of the favourites…
No comments:
Post a Comment