The second day of the Cheltenham festival - and as I’m releasing this prior to
racing on day 1, I’m no wiser as to how the ground will ride.
The racing in general, looks very similar to today.
A couple of the fields are smaller than ideal: there are 3 very short priced favourites - and a couple of impossible looking handicaps.
That’s Cheltenham for you :)
Cheltenham
1:20
As with Tuesday, there’s a relatively small field for the opening race of the day - and just 7 will go to post for the Ballymore…
However, this has effectively looked a 3 horse race for quite some time - and the big 3 will all (hopefully !) be facing the starter.
Bob Olinger has made his way to the head of the market, following his impressive win last time in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas novice hurdle.
He travelled strongly through the race that day and comfortably beat Blue Lord.
It’s hard to crab what he’s done - but his form doesn’t look quite as strong as that of his 2 main rivals, so he’s not one I’d be rushing to back at current prices…
I think there is more substance to the form of Gaillard du Mesnil.
He won a really strong grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, last time, having been backed as if defeat was out of the question.
Pre-race, he hadn’t struck me as a 6/4 shot - but during the race, it was a different matter !
It’s always particularly significant when horses from the biggest stables are well backed (he’s trained by Willie Mullins) as they have plenty of talented animals to compare them with.
He’s clearly held in high regard and strikes me as the one to beat.
Bravemansgame is held in high regard by Paul Nichols - and he has impressed in winning his 3 most recent races.
He looked a horse with a real future when powering home last time in the Challow hurdle - though there is a suspicion that he’ll be even better over fences.
Bear Ghylls is fourth in the betting - despite being unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles.
He’s clearly a very talented animal - though his form is a notch lower than the main protagonists - and he is inclined to miss out the odd hurdle.
If he does that in this company, it’s likely to prove costly…
Keskonrisk is the final one of interest.
He’s stepping up in trip after a good effort when third to Appreciate It at Leopardstown over Christmas.
If he’s to be a factor, then the increase in distance tomorrow, will need to bring about an improved performance.
However that is certainly not impossible…
1:55
There’s yet another small field for the Brown Advisory novice chase (formerly the RSA) - but there is good reason for that…
In 3 chases this season, Monkfish has looked a monster…
I paid little attention to his debut win at Fairyhouse in November (even though the form has worked out really well); and didn’t think he achieved much when beating Latest Exhibition at Leopardstown over Christmas (which may have been true).
However, I was really impressed when he beat the same horse last time, at the Dublin Racing festival.
I thought he might be vulnerable that day, cutting back in trip - but he powered his way through the race, never looking remotely in any danger.
It really was an impressive performance - and I suspect it will take a very good one to beat him tomorrow.
And in truth, I don’t think he faces anything good enough.
Eklat de Rire was also quite impressive when winning last time at Naas.
However he beat Escari Ten by 2 lengths, whereas Monkfish had beaten the same horse by 15 lengths, at Fairyhouse.
That may not be a completely fair comparison - but all the same…
The Big Breakaway may be the strongest of the home contingent.
He’s still only 6 - and very much looks like work in progress.
That said, he’s already shown decent form - most notably when runner up to Shan Blue at Kempton over Christmas.
That was a particularly good effort, as The Big Breakaways jumping that day, left a lot to be desired.
He’ll need to have improved in that department to have any chance tomorrow - whilst the poor form of the Tizzard stable this season, is a worry.
However, he is a horse with enormous potential - and if everything did drop right, he’s the one runner in the field who might be able to give Monkfish a race.
JP McManus is responsible for a couple of runners, in the shape of Sporting John and Dickie Diver.
Sporting John has the better form, courtesy of a surprise defeat of Shan Blue in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles chase last time.
Despite that, I prefer the chances of Dickie Diver.
He’s only run once over fences, when runner up to Paint the Dream in a Newbury handicap.
He has no chance based on that form, but I was really taken with him that day - and could see him running a fair bit better than his dismissive odds suggest.
2:30
A huge field of 26 will go to post for the Coral cup, and the race looks wide open.
Grand Roi has been installed the early favourite, on the back of 2 good recent runs in graded company.
However, there’s a world of difference between 5 runner graded events and a 26 runner handicap !
With only 5 previous runs over hurdles, he’s a hard horse to get a handle on - but at odds of around 6/1, he makes no appeal…
Koshari is a little more attractive.
He had been off the track for over 2 years, prior to making a winning return at Cork in January.
He followed that up with a really eye-catching sixth in a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing festival.
He made a bad mistake early in the race that day - but was staying on strongly at the finish.
He’s another who it’s hard to get a handle on - but clearly has plenty of ability, so would have to be included on any short list.
Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in this race - and will saddle 4 tomorrow.
Both Monte Cristo and Craigneiche were impressive winners last time - but as a result have to run from marks 12lb higher.
That’s not an ideal situation.
By contrast, Birchdale finished 8th in this race last year - but gets to run from a mark 2lb lower.
Nico de Boinville appears to have opted to ride him - and I can’t say I’m surprised.
Shakem Up’Arry and Guard Your Dreams ran last time in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury.
That race is over 2 miles - and I could see them both appreciating the step up in trip tomorrow.
Shakem up’arry was the more fancied of the pair that day - but Guard your Dreams ran better.
He was caught out of his ground up the home straight, but finished to some effect in the final furlong.
That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to stay the extra distance - but if he does, I would expect him to be right in the mix.
Of the outsiders, then Heaven Help Us is worth a mention
She did us a big favour when winning last time at the Dublin Racing festival - and whilst she will be running off a mark 12lb higher tomorrow, she won well that day and I certainly wouldn’t completely dismiss her chance.
I don’t think that Our Power has been suited by very heavy ground on his last 2 runs - and prior to that, he’d twice caught my eye.
Back on a sounder surface, he’s another one who I could see outrunning dismissive odds.
3:05
This race should tell us whether Chacun Pour Soi is the real deal…
He burst onto the scene at the Punchestown festival 2 seasons ago - and since then it’s been possible to argue that he’s been the best 2 miler in training.
The only trouble is he’s only run 5 times during that period - and never outside Ireland.
He’s beaten almost everything put in front of him - but the 2 mile chase division in Ireland tends not to be overly strong.
The acid test for him is whether he can beat the best of the English - and we will find that out tomorrow.
In a way, he’s hit lucky, because there’s no outstanding English 2 mile chaser at the moment
Altior was outstanding - but he’s now past his peak (and also misses the race due to injury).
Politilogue is the reigning 2 mile Champion chaser - but his victory last year, owed as much to the absence of the key players as it did to his own talent.
He’s a decent horse - but not really one who should be capable of winning a championship event - never mind winning it twice !
Nube Negra was massively impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas.
However that was mainly because he destroyed Altior - and in reality, the Altior he beat, is probably a shadow of his former self…
The other issue with Nube Negra is that he’s a quick horse - so it’s questionable whether Cheltenham will suit him.
It’s less debatable whether Cheltenham will suit First flow - it won’t !
He wants a right hand track - and ideally soft ground.
He may not get either - and to win at the highest level, you need everything in your favour (or a big class edge).
Both Sceau Royal and Rouge Vif need good ground to show their best - and they will both be very interesting if they happen to get it.
Sceau Royal possibly lacks that bit of class required to win at grade 1 level - whilst Rouge Vif will need to step up on what he’s done so far.
However, given the right conditions, he could just do that…
Put the Kettle On and Cilaos Emery come over from Ireland - and whilst they have both been beaten by Chacun Pour Soi in the past, they aren’t completely without hope.
Put the Kettle on was a surprise winner of last years Arkle - and Arkle winners have a very good record in the Champion chase.
I’d be surprised if she adds to it - but it’s not impossible.
Notebook and Greaneteen are decent horses - but they’ve both finished behind a number of tomorrows rivals on recent runs - and it’s hard to see either being good enough to win.
3:40
However you look at this race, it’s almost impossible not to come down on the side of Easysland…
He bolted up in the race last year - beating Tiger Roll by 17 lengths.
That was on the back of having won over the course in December - when he was again an impressive winner.
He was beaten over the course, on his most recent run in November - but he was attempting to give 22lb to the race winner, Kingswell Theatre.
They will meet at level weights tomorrow - and that should see the 9 length deficit overturned - and some !
The other staggering thing about Easysland, is that he’s only just 7.
NH horses tend to peak at around 9, so he could still be improving…
In terms of his rivals - then Tiger Roll heads the list.
A dual Grand National winner - and dual winner of this race - he can be considered an equine great.
However, his star appears very much on the wane.
He couldn’t lay a glove on Easysland 12 months ago - and now that he’s a year older, he faces an even bigger challenge.
The only possibility is that unlike last year, he hasn’t got the Grand National as his main aim - so there is a chance he could turn up fully tuned.
Even then, I suspect he would have his work cut out - though he may be capable of closing the gap.
Beyond the top 2 in the market, they really do look a bit of a rag bag !
Some Neck won the cross country race at the December meeting - but that was off a mark of 137 - some 30lb shy of Easyslands rating !
Balko des Flos was once a very good chasers (he won the Ryanair) - but he’s shown nothing for ages and this very much looks a last throw of the dice.
Le Breuil could be quite interesting, if he takes to the fences.
His connections held Grand National ambitions for him - but he’s not performed well enough to get into that race.
Basically, he is slow - and whilst a race like this could in theory suit him - I suspect his lack of pace will catch him out when the pace quickens (which tends to be the case over the final half dozen fences).
Kingswell Theatre is a very honest horse, who will almost certainly run his race - and could hang on for a place.
However, I’ll be a bit surprised if he can finish within 10 lengths of Easysland.
Defi des Carres is a touch more interesting.
He finished runner up to Some Neck on his UK debut in December - and at the revised terms, appears to hold little chance of reversing the form.
However, he may have improved for that initial run - and is still only 8 years old.
The bottom line however, is that Easysland really should win this - and win it well.
I’m not in the habit of betting at even money - but I’m tempted !
4:15
This arguably looks the most open race I’ve previewed so far, with no stand-out candidates…
The Irish trained novices, Embittered and Entoucas, head the market - but I suspect that is mainly because they are Irish trained novices !
Both have some fair form - but are reasonably exposed and certainly don’t appear to have been layed out for the race.
Of the pair, I favour Embittered.
He finished third in the Country hurdle at last years festival, when running off the same mark he will run off tomorrow.
If he runs to the same level, he should again go close - but I suspect he will need to have improved, if he is to win.
The UK defence is headed by Sky Pirate and Zanza.
The former is a transformed character, since being dropped back to the minimum trip.
He’d look decidedly dodgy over half a mile further - but it would appear that he simply didn’t stay that trip !
Dropping back to the minimum has seen him bolt up twice - and run a good second to Allmankind. However, it has also seen his handicap mark rise by 18lb.
I suspect he will still run well - but I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to win.
Zanza has an attractive profile, as he’s a young chaser who may still have something in hand of his mark.
He won well at Newbury on his penultimate outing - and was still travelling strongly on his most recent run over the course, when coming down at the third last.
Off the same mark tomorrow, he clearly has a chance - though I’d be a little worried that once again, his jumping might let him down.
Most of the other runners look in the grip of the handicapper - suggesting this race really could be won by almost any of them (basically, whichever one gets the run of the race and the lucky breaks).
Ashutor, On the Slopes and Sizing Pottsie are 3 who still may have improvement in them (they are all only 7 and relatively unexposed); whilst Moolighter also looks quite interesting.
He ran a couple of decent races early in the season - and was a game winner last time at Sandown.
If he’s in the same form tomorrow, I could see him outrunning his odds.
4:50
I wouldn’t normally be particularly interested in the bumper - but I might make an exception with this one !
Kilcruit put up an unbelievable effort when winning the future stars bumper at the Dublin Racing festival, last month.
He hacked up in the strongest race of its kind, run so far this season.
His effort really did look too good to be true - and when that happens, it’s often because it is too good to be true !
The race was run on heavy ground - and there was a strong pace.
Patrick Mullins sat out the back on Kilcruit - and then picked off tiring rivals up the straight.
In short, I suspect he was the only one who got his fractions right - and that was why it looked so impressive.
As a consequence, he is likely to be overbacked in this race - which means there will be value elsewhere.
Sir Gerhard is the obvious alternative - but I suspect he too will be overbacked, because of his connections.
He is owned by the Chevely Park stud - and they won this race 2 years ago, with Envoi Allen.
He was an exceptional bumper horse - and every winner they now have in a bumper, is talked about as being potentially the next Envoi Allen !
It’s not to say that Sir Gerhard isn’t a very nice horse and he may well be capable of winning the race.
However, as with Kilcruit, he will be a shorter price than he should be, which means there will be value elsewhere…
Three Stripe Life was a massively impressive winner of a Navan bumper in January.
He was very well backed that day - and whilst it’s impossible to assess the form, he bolted up, and recorded a very decent time.
Elle est Belle was a ridiculously impressive winner on her debut at Aintree in November.
In fairness, that didn’t look a strong race - but she absolutely hacked up.
She also managed to just about win her next race (allegedly !), as she forced a dead heat with Ishkahara Lady in the gloom of the Cheltenham November meeting.
She’s not been seen since then, but I’ve no doubt that Dan Skelton will have her spot on for tomorrow.
Ramilies is the final one of interest.
He was well beaten by Kilcruit at Dublin Racing festival - but had been quite well fancied prior to the race.
If it was simply a question of him not getting as good a ride as the winner that day, then he should be able to close the gap tomorrow, at very least…
The racing in general, looks very similar to today.
A couple of the fields are smaller than ideal: there are 3 very short priced favourites - and a couple of impossible looking handicaps.
That’s Cheltenham for you :)
Cheltenham
1:20
As with Tuesday, there’s a relatively small field for the opening race of the day - and just 7 will go to post for the Ballymore…
However, this has effectively looked a 3 horse race for quite some time - and the big 3 will all (hopefully !) be facing the starter.
Bob Olinger has made his way to the head of the market, following his impressive win last time in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas novice hurdle.
He travelled strongly through the race that day and comfortably beat Blue Lord.
It’s hard to crab what he’s done - but his form doesn’t look quite as strong as that of his 2 main rivals, so he’s not one I’d be rushing to back at current prices…
I think there is more substance to the form of Gaillard du Mesnil.
He won a really strong grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, last time, having been backed as if defeat was out of the question.
Pre-race, he hadn’t struck me as a 6/4 shot - but during the race, it was a different matter !
It’s always particularly significant when horses from the biggest stables are well backed (he’s trained by Willie Mullins) as they have plenty of talented animals to compare them with.
He’s clearly held in high regard and strikes me as the one to beat.
Bravemansgame is held in high regard by Paul Nichols - and he has impressed in winning his 3 most recent races.
He looked a horse with a real future when powering home last time in the Challow hurdle - though there is a suspicion that he’ll be even better over fences.
Bear Ghylls is fourth in the betting - despite being unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles.
He’s clearly a very talented animal - though his form is a notch lower than the main protagonists - and he is inclined to miss out the odd hurdle.
If he does that in this company, it’s likely to prove costly…
Keskonrisk is the final one of interest.
He’s stepping up in trip after a good effort when third to Appreciate It at Leopardstown over Christmas.
If he’s to be a factor, then the increase in distance tomorrow, will need to bring about an improved performance.
However that is certainly not impossible…
1:55
There’s yet another small field for the Brown Advisory novice chase (formerly the RSA) - but there is good reason for that…
In 3 chases this season, Monkfish has looked a monster…
I paid little attention to his debut win at Fairyhouse in November (even though the form has worked out really well); and didn’t think he achieved much when beating Latest Exhibition at Leopardstown over Christmas (which may have been true).
However, I was really impressed when he beat the same horse last time, at the Dublin Racing festival.
I thought he might be vulnerable that day, cutting back in trip - but he powered his way through the race, never looking remotely in any danger.
It really was an impressive performance - and I suspect it will take a very good one to beat him tomorrow.
And in truth, I don’t think he faces anything good enough.
Eklat de Rire was also quite impressive when winning last time at Naas.
However he beat Escari Ten by 2 lengths, whereas Monkfish had beaten the same horse by 15 lengths, at Fairyhouse.
That may not be a completely fair comparison - but all the same…
The Big Breakaway may be the strongest of the home contingent.
He’s still only 6 - and very much looks like work in progress.
That said, he’s already shown decent form - most notably when runner up to Shan Blue at Kempton over Christmas.
That was a particularly good effort, as The Big Breakaways jumping that day, left a lot to be desired.
He’ll need to have improved in that department to have any chance tomorrow - whilst the poor form of the Tizzard stable this season, is a worry.
However, he is a horse with enormous potential - and if everything did drop right, he’s the one runner in the field who might be able to give Monkfish a race.
JP McManus is responsible for a couple of runners, in the shape of Sporting John and Dickie Diver.
Sporting John has the better form, courtesy of a surprise defeat of Shan Blue in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles chase last time.
Despite that, I prefer the chances of Dickie Diver.
He’s only run once over fences, when runner up to Paint the Dream in a Newbury handicap.
He has no chance based on that form, but I was really taken with him that day - and could see him running a fair bit better than his dismissive odds suggest.
2:30
A huge field of 26 will go to post for the Coral cup, and the race looks wide open.
Grand Roi has been installed the early favourite, on the back of 2 good recent runs in graded company.
However, there’s a world of difference between 5 runner graded events and a 26 runner handicap !
With only 5 previous runs over hurdles, he’s a hard horse to get a handle on - but at odds of around 6/1, he makes no appeal…
Koshari is a little more attractive.
He had been off the track for over 2 years, prior to making a winning return at Cork in January.
He followed that up with a really eye-catching sixth in a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing festival.
He made a bad mistake early in the race that day - but was staying on strongly at the finish.
He’s another who it’s hard to get a handle on - but clearly has plenty of ability, so would have to be included on any short list.
Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in this race - and will saddle 4 tomorrow.
Both Monte Cristo and Craigneiche were impressive winners last time - but as a result have to run from marks 12lb higher.
That’s not an ideal situation.
By contrast, Birchdale finished 8th in this race last year - but gets to run from a mark 2lb lower.
Nico de Boinville appears to have opted to ride him - and I can’t say I’m surprised.
Shakem Up’Arry and Guard Your Dreams ran last time in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury.
That race is over 2 miles - and I could see them both appreciating the step up in trip tomorrow.
Shakem up’arry was the more fancied of the pair that day - but Guard your Dreams ran better.
He was caught out of his ground up the home straight, but finished to some effect in the final furlong.
That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to stay the extra distance - but if he does, I would expect him to be right in the mix.
Of the outsiders, then Heaven Help Us is worth a mention
She did us a big favour when winning last time at the Dublin Racing festival - and whilst she will be running off a mark 12lb higher tomorrow, she won well that day and I certainly wouldn’t completely dismiss her chance.
I don’t think that Our Power has been suited by very heavy ground on his last 2 runs - and prior to that, he’d twice caught my eye.
Back on a sounder surface, he’s another one who I could see outrunning dismissive odds.
3:05
This race should tell us whether Chacun Pour Soi is the real deal…
He burst onto the scene at the Punchestown festival 2 seasons ago - and since then it’s been possible to argue that he’s been the best 2 miler in training.
The only trouble is he’s only run 5 times during that period - and never outside Ireland.
He’s beaten almost everything put in front of him - but the 2 mile chase division in Ireland tends not to be overly strong.
The acid test for him is whether he can beat the best of the English - and we will find that out tomorrow.
In a way, he’s hit lucky, because there’s no outstanding English 2 mile chaser at the moment
Altior was outstanding - but he’s now past his peak (and also misses the race due to injury).
Politilogue is the reigning 2 mile Champion chaser - but his victory last year, owed as much to the absence of the key players as it did to his own talent.
He’s a decent horse - but not really one who should be capable of winning a championship event - never mind winning it twice !
Nube Negra was massively impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas.
However that was mainly because he destroyed Altior - and in reality, the Altior he beat, is probably a shadow of his former self…
The other issue with Nube Negra is that he’s a quick horse - so it’s questionable whether Cheltenham will suit him.
It’s less debatable whether Cheltenham will suit First flow - it won’t !
He wants a right hand track - and ideally soft ground.
He may not get either - and to win at the highest level, you need everything in your favour (or a big class edge).
Both Sceau Royal and Rouge Vif need good ground to show their best - and they will both be very interesting if they happen to get it.
Sceau Royal possibly lacks that bit of class required to win at grade 1 level - whilst Rouge Vif will need to step up on what he’s done so far.
However, given the right conditions, he could just do that…
Put the Kettle On and Cilaos Emery come over from Ireland - and whilst they have both been beaten by Chacun Pour Soi in the past, they aren’t completely without hope.
Put the Kettle on was a surprise winner of last years Arkle - and Arkle winners have a very good record in the Champion chase.
I’d be surprised if she adds to it - but it’s not impossible.
Notebook and Greaneteen are decent horses - but they’ve both finished behind a number of tomorrows rivals on recent runs - and it’s hard to see either being good enough to win.
3:40
However you look at this race, it’s almost impossible not to come down on the side of Easysland…
He bolted up in the race last year - beating Tiger Roll by 17 lengths.
That was on the back of having won over the course in December - when he was again an impressive winner.
He was beaten over the course, on his most recent run in November - but he was attempting to give 22lb to the race winner, Kingswell Theatre.
They will meet at level weights tomorrow - and that should see the 9 length deficit overturned - and some !
The other staggering thing about Easysland, is that he’s only just 7.
NH horses tend to peak at around 9, so he could still be improving…
In terms of his rivals - then Tiger Roll heads the list.
A dual Grand National winner - and dual winner of this race - he can be considered an equine great.
However, his star appears very much on the wane.
He couldn’t lay a glove on Easysland 12 months ago - and now that he’s a year older, he faces an even bigger challenge.
The only possibility is that unlike last year, he hasn’t got the Grand National as his main aim - so there is a chance he could turn up fully tuned.
Even then, I suspect he would have his work cut out - though he may be capable of closing the gap.
Beyond the top 2 in the market, they really do look a bit of a rag bag !
Some Neck won the cross country race at the December meeting - but that was off a mark of 137 - some 30lb shy of Easyslands rating !
Balko des Flos was once a very good chasers (he won the Ryanair) - but he’s shown nothing for ages and this very much looks a last throw of the dice.
Le Breuil could be quite interesting, if he takes to the fences.
His connections held Grand National ambitions for him - but he’s not performed well enough to get into that race.
Basically, he is slow - and whilst a race like this could in theory suit him - I suspect his lack of pace will catch him out when the pace quickens (which tends to be the case over the final half dozen fences).
Kingswell Theatre is a very honest horse, who will almost certainly run his race - and could hang on for a place.
However, I’ll be a bit surprised if he can finish within 10 lengths of Easysland.
Defi des Carres is a touch more interesting.
He finished runner up to Some Neck on his UK debut in December - and at the revised terms, appears to hold little chance of reversing the form.
However, he may have improved for that initial run - and is still only 8 years old.
The bottom line however, is that Easysland really should win this - and win it well.
I’m not in the habit of betting at even money - but I’m tempted !
4:15
This arguably looks the most open race I’ve previewed so far, with no stand-out candidates…
The Irish trained novices, Embittered and Entoucas, head the market - but I suspect that is mainly because they are Irish trained novices !
Both have some fair form - but are reasonably exposed and certainly don’t appear to have been layed out for the race.
Of the pair, I favour Embittered.
He finished third in the Country hurdle at last years festival, when running off the same mark he will run off tomorrow.
If he runs to the same level, he should again go close - but I suspect he will need to have improved, if he is to win.
The UK defence is headed by Sky Pirate and Zanza.
The former is a transformed character, since being dropped back to the minimum trip.
He’d look decidedly dodgy over half a mile further - but it would appear that he simply didn’t stay that trip !
Dropping back to the minimum has seen him bolt up twice - and run a good second to Allmankind. However, it has also seen his handicap mark rise by 18lb.
I suspect he will still run well - but I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to win.
Zanza has an attractive profile, as he’s a young chaser who may still have something in hand of his mark.
He won well at Newbury on his penultimate outing - and was still travelling strongly on his most recent run over the course, when coming down at the third last.
Off the same mark tomorrow, he clearly has a chance - though I’d be a little worried that once again, his jumping might let him down.
Most of the other runners look in the grip of the handicapper - suggesting this race really could be won by almost any of them (basically, whichever one gets the run of the race and the lucky breaks).
Ashutor, On the Slopes and Sizing Pottsie are 3 who still may have improvement in them (they are all only 7 and relatively unexposed); whilst Moolighter also looks quite interesting.
He ran a couple of decent races early in the season - and was a game winner last time at Sandown.
If he’s in the same form tomorrow, I could see him outrunning his odds.
4:50
I wouldn’t normally be particularly interested in the bumper - but I might make an exception with this one !
Kilcruit put up an unbelievable effort when winning the future stars bumper at the Dublin Racing festival, last month.
He hacked up in the strongest race of its kind, run so far this season.
His effort really did look too good to be true - and when that happens, it’s often because it is too good to be true !
The race was run on heavy ground - and there was a strong pace.
Patrick Mullins sat out the back on Kilcruit - and then picked off tiring rivals up the straight.
In short, I suspect he was the only one who got his fractions right - and that was why it looked so impressive.
As a consequence, he is likely to be overbacked in this race - which means there will be value elsewhere.
Sir Gerhard is the obvious alternative - but I suspect he too will be overbacked, because of his connections.
He is owned by the Chevely Park stud - and they won this race 2 years ago, with Envoi Allen.
He was an exceptional bumper horse - and every winner they now have in a bumper, is talked about as being potentially the next Envoi Allen !
It’s not to say that Sir Gerhard isn’t a very nice horse and he may well be capable of winning the race.
However, as with Kilcruit, he will be a shorter price than he should be, which means there will be value elsewhere…
Three Stripe Life was a massively impressive winner of a Navan bumper in January.
He was very well backed that day - and whilst it’s impossible to assess the form, he bolted up, and recorded a very decent time.
Elle est Belle was a ridiculously impressive winner on her debut at Aintree in November.
In fairness, that didn’t look a strong race - but she absolutely hacked up.
She also managed to just about win her next race (allegedly !), as she forced a dead heat with Ishkahara Lady in the gloom of the Cheltenham November meeting.
She’s not been seen since then, but I’ve no doubt that Dan Skelton will have her spot on for tomorrow.
Ramilies is the final one of interest.
He was well beaten by Kilcruit at Dublin Racing festival - but had been quite well fancied prior to the race.
If it was simply a question of him not getting as good a ride as the winner that day, then he should be able to close the gap tomorrow, at very least…
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