Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
2:30
Happygolucky 3 units win 10/3
Vintage Clouds 3 units 25/1
One for the Team 1 unit win 9/1
Alandam 3 units win 9/1
3:05
Epatante 5 units win 4/1
Not so Sleepy 1 unit win 80/1
4:15
Sage Advice 5 units win 20/1
Curious Bride 2 units win 33/1
4:50
Remastered 5 units win 13/2
Snow Leopardess 2 units win 16/1
Best bets
Cheltenham
3:05
Epatante 0.5pt win 4/1
4:15
Sage Advice 0.5pt win 20/1
4:50
Remastered 0.5pt win 13/2
There may be a lot of rubbish going on in the world at the
moment; we may have just come through a bleak couple of winter months; the
fields for a a few of the races may be smaller than ideal - but it’s the first
day of Cheltenham - and Cheltenham is always brilliant :)
More than that, I’ve managed to find a few bets for you !
At 8:00 yesterday evening, I really didn’t think that was going to be the case - but a fresh look at the markets this morning, revealed a drifter and an overpriced one.
I’ve added those to the one I was always planning on suggesting - and as a consequence, there are 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
And to think, this is probably the weakest day of the week - maybe things aren’t that bad afterall :)
Cheltenham
Appreciate It should win the opener.
He was a bet (in theory, at least), at his opening price of 6/4 (on Sunday evening).
However, the rain has since come - and the market has moved in his direction, big time.
He’s now a shade of odds on - and I think that’s about right.
Metier is the obvious one if you want to take him on - as at least Appreciate It has not yet beaten him !
However, I’m likely to just watch…
It’s a similar story in the Arkle (1:55)
Shishkin should win - it’s as simple as that.
Events may conspire against him, in terms of race pace, jumping, luck etc - but all things being equal, he’ll come home in front.
I don’t think Allmankind is good enough to beat him however he is ridden - but if he’s ridden too aggressively, he’s likely to compromise his own chance of finishing second.
All 3 of the others have a chance of finishing runner up, if Allmankind does blow out.
A forecast on Shishkin to beat Eldorado Allen, could be a value play (even if a little unlikely).
I wanted to be with Happygolucky in the 2:30 - but so does everyone else !
Simply, 10/3 is a 16 runner Cheltenham handicap is too short - so he can’t be a Best bet.
That said, I think the race lacks depth, so I’m hopeful I can hit on the winner via the Matrix.
Vintage Clouds is the value play, in his first time cheek pieces. He’s handicapped to go very close - and the rain is a plus for him.
It’s also a plus for Alnadim, He could also benefit from the step up in trip - and Dan Skelton seems quite sweet on him.
I’ll save on One for the Team - despite his poor run last time; and ofcourse, Happygolucky, as I wouldn’t want to lose, if he does win…
It’s a cracking Champion hurdle (3:05) - but I’ll be a little surprised if it’s not won by one of the mares.
They are both exceptional - and the 7lb sex allowance they receive, is a massive bonus.
I’d struggle to choose between them - but thankfully, the betting did it for me !
6/4 Honeysuckle; 4/1 Epatante is just wrong - the bet picks itself…
The ground has gone against Sharjah and Abracadabras; and whilst I’d love to see Goshen win, it’s a massive ask for a 5 year old.
Kind of bizarrely (and I surprised myself with this one !), I want to cover Not so Sleepy for the Matrix.
Many years ago, I had a similar feeling about Beach Road and I didn’t back him.
He won the race at 50/1 !
There’s a slim chance that Not so Sleepy could steal this from the front - and at 80/1, he’s worth a tiny bet for the Matrix.
I toyed with suggesting Black Tears in the 3:40 - but ultimately, I don’t think she will beat Concertista.
I think she’s a good bet at 6/1 in the ‘w/o the fav’ market - but that could only ever be an unofficial suggestion (as it wouldn’t be available to you all).
I like Roksana - but I think she’ll be found out over the shorter trip.
The other one worth considering in the ‘w/o the fav’ market’ is Dolcita.
Even then she could only be recommended EW - but she’s 40/1 with WH and that strikes me as a decent bet.
I did originally intend to leave the 4:15 alone, as it looks a minefield.
However, a really good case can be made for Sage Advice - and he’s a 20/1 shot.
There is a real danger that one of his opponents will prove different class - but in fairness, it’s not impossible that he could be a lot better than his rating of 127.
The deciding factor for me was his trainer. You all know I love Dr Newland (as I’m sure many of you now do as well !) - and if there is one trainer I’d be prepared to take a risk on, it’s him.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the top half dozen in the market win - but at 33/1, Curios Bride is also worth a saver for the Matrix, as she too looks significantly over-priced.
I remain quite keen on Remastered in the 4:50.
I put him up ante post, a few weeks ago - and whist he was a 16/1 chance then, it did look likely that Royal Pagaille would run.
He’s not turned up - and that’s massively improved the chance of Remastered.
Ofcourse, his price has halved as a consequence - but you can’t have everything !
The late stable switch won’t help Galvin; whilst Next Destination is too short at 5/2.
Of more interest at a price, is Snow Leopardess.
Again, she receives the 7lb mares allowance - and that could put her right in the mix.
With her stamina assured, she looks worth a saver, for the Matrix.
More than that, I’ve managed to find a few bets for you !
At 8:00 yesterday evening, I really didn’t think that was going to be the case - but a fresh look at the markets this morning, revealed a drifter and an overpriced one.
I’ve added those to the one I was always planning on suggesting - and as a consequence, there are 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
And to think, this is probably the weakest day of the week - maybe things aren’t that bad afterall :)
Cheltenham
Appreciate It should win the opener.
He was a bet (in theory, at least), at his opening price of 6/4 (on Sunday evening).
However, the rain has since come - and the market has moved in his direction, big time.
He’s now a shade of odds on - and I think that’s about right.
Metier is the obvious one if you want to take him on - as at least Appreciate It has not yet beaten him !
However, I’m likely to just watch…
It’s a similar story in the Arkle (1:55)
Shishkin should win - it’s as simple as that.
Events may conspire against him, in terms of race pace, jumping, luck etc - but all things being equal, he’ll come home in front.
I don’t think Allmankind is good enough to beat him however he is ridden - but if he’s ridden too aggressively, he’s likely to compromise his own chance of finishing second.
All 3 of the others have a chance of finishing runner up, if Allmankind does blow out.
A forecast on Shishkin to beat Eldorado Allen, could be a value play (even if a little unlikely).
I wanted to be with Happygolucky in the 2:30 - but so does everyone else !
Simply, 10/3 is a 16 runner Cheltenham handicap is too short - so he can’t be a Best bet.
That said, I think the race lacks depth, so I’m hopeful I can hit on the winner via the Matrix.
Vintage Clouds is the value play, in his first time cheek pieces. He’s handicapped to go very close - and the rain is a plus for him.
It’s also a plus for Alnadim, He could also benefit from the step up in trip - and Dan Skelton seems quite sweet on him.
I’ll save on One for the Team - despite his poor run last time; and ofcourse, Happygolucky, as I wouldn’t want to lose, if he does win…
It’s a cracking Champion hurdle (3:05) - but I’ll be a little surprised if it’s not won by one of the mares.
They are both exceptional - and the 7lb sex allowance they receive, is a massive bonus.
I’d struggle to choose between them - but thankfully, the betting did it for me !
6/4 Honeysuckle; 4/1 Epatante is just wrong - the bet picks itself…
The ground has gone against Sharjah and Abracadabras; and whilst I’d love to see Goshen win, it’s a massive ask for a 5 year old.
Kind of bizarrely (and I surprised myself with this one !), I want to cover Not so Sleepy for the Matrix.
Many years ago, I had a similar feeling about Beach Road and I didn’t back him.
He won the race at 50/1 !
There’s a slim chance that Not so Sleepy could steal this from the front - and at 80/1, he’s worth a tiny bet for the Matrix.
I toyed with suggesting Black Tears in the 3:40 - but ultimately, I don’t think she will beat Concertista.
I think she’s a good bet at 6/1 in the ‘w/o the fav’ market - but that could only ever be an unofficial suggestion (as it wouldn’t be available to you all).
I like Roksana - but I think she’ll be found out over the shorter trip.
The other one worth considering in the ‘w/o the fav’ market’ is Dolcita.
Even then she could only be recommended EW - but she’s 40/1 with WH and that strikes me as a decent bet.
I did originally intend to leave the 4:15 alone, as it looks a minefield.
However, a really good case can be made for Sage Advice - and he’s a 20/1 shot.
There is a real danger that one of his opponents will prove different class - but in fairness, it’s not impossible that he could be a lot better than his rating of 127.
The deciding factor for me was his trainer. You all know I love Dr Newland (as I’m sure many of you now do as well !) - and if there is one trainer I’d be prepared to take a risk on, it’s him.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the top half dozen in the market win - but at 33/1, Curios Bride is also worth a saver for the Matrix, as she too looks significantly over-priced.
I remain quite keen on Remastered in the 4:50.
I put him up ante post, a few weeks ago - and whist he was a 16/1 chance then, it did look likely that Royal Pagaille would run.
He’s not turned up - and that’s massively improved the chance of Remastered.
Ofcourse, his price has halved as a consequence - but you can’t have everything !
The late stable switch won’t help Galvin; whilst Next Destination is too short at 5/2.
Of more interest at a price, is Snow Leopardess.
Again, she receives the 7lb mares allowance - and that could put her right in the mix.
With her stamina assured, she looks worth a saver, for the Matrix.
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