The 2021 Cheltenham festival will commence tomorrow, in front of empty stands…
However, I believe that ITV intend to add in a crowd soundtrack, so we’ll still hear the ‘Cheltenham roar’ !
A bizarre response to a bizarre situation…
Apparently there was 10mm of rain on Sunday night, which wasn’t expected.
As a result, the ground on the opening day, is now expected to be close to ‘soft’ (as opposed to the ‘good to soft’ that I was anticipating).
There’s been a lot written - and said - about the small fields on the opening day - and it is true that the field sizes for the first 2 races in particular, are smaller than ideal.
That said, most of the main protagonists are taking place, so the quality hasn’t been significantly diluted.
The reality is - as I said in the ‘plans for the week’ email - things have been moving in this direction for a few years.
There are now too many races at the festival - and the best horses are with too few trainers (I believe that Willie Mullins is responsible for 14 of the favourites across the week !)
It’s a recipe for uncompetitive racing - and circumstances have seen it come home to roost this year.
As a result, I doubt there will be too many bets - but it should still be a great spectacle, which I’m sure we’ll all enjoy…
Cheltenham
1:20
It’ll be a bit of a shock, seeing just 8 go to post for the opening race of the meeting.
There are normally nearer 20 runners - even if only 8 have a realistic chance of winning !
I’m not sure that all 8 have a realistic chance of winning tomorrow - as Appreciate It does appear stand a little way above most of his rivals…
He was sent off a short priced favourite for the bumper at last seasons festival - but finished runner up to Ferney Hollow.
It was still a good effort - and he’s seamlessly switched to hurdles this season, winning all 3 of his starts.
The last 2 were in Grade 1 company - and he beat Ballyadam and Irascible on both occasions.
It’s possible that they may get closer to him tomorrow - but there is no obvious reason why either should reverse the form.
Blue Lord also finished behind Appreciate It on the latest occasion - so it’s fair to say that Appreciate It looks to be the best of the Irish !
The English challenge is headed by Metier.
He’s a decent flat horse (rated 88), who is unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles - including in Grade 1 company on his most recent outing.
The issue with him is that his form looks weak, as the horses who have finished behind him have done nothing subsequently to advertise the form.
Whilst that can’t be held against him (he could only beat what was put in front of him), it does nothing to bolster his case.
Soaring Glory is the other big UK hope.
He was an impressive winner of the Betfair hurdle on his most recent start - but that was off a mark of 133.
He had been beaten on his 3 previous starts - and whilst he clearly is improving, he’ll need to run to a mark the mid 150s, if he is to win this race.
That may happen - but it’s far from guaranteed.
The 2 remaining runners - Grumpy Charlie and For Pleasure - both look a bit outclassed.
However, For Pleasure could have a big part to play.
He’s a confirmed front runner - and is likely to give Appreciate It a nice tow into the race.
Without him, Appreciate It would have to make his own running - and that might make him vulnerable.
In summary, whilst Appreciate It isn’t unbeatable - he’s the best horse in the race; holds half the field on form - and is likely to get the race run to suit.
If you can get 6/4, then that strike me as a perfectly fair bet…
1:55
Only 6 will go to post for the Arkle - but that isn’t too surprising, as one of them is Shishkin !
He was an really impressive winner of the Supreme hurdle at last years festival - and since that moment, he’s been a short priced favourite for this race.
He’s run 3 times over fences this season: tackling slightly stronger opposition each time - and winning each race with slightly more authority !
He does look an exceptional talent - and it’s going to take a very good one (or some misfortune) to beat him…
For the last few months, it looked as if he might get to face a very good one, in the shape of Energumene.
He too is unbeaten in 3 chase starts this season - but unfortunately encountered a set back last week and will miss the race…
As a consequence, Allmankind is now Shishkins main rival.
He is also unbeaten in 3 chase starts this season - and has looked better with each outing.
He’s a strong traveller - and a quick aggressive jumper - and connections will doubtless be hoping that these characteristics can put Shishkin under pressure (and force him to make a mistake).
That is possible - but Shishkin isn’t short of pace himself - and his jumping so far, has been flawless.
The doubt with Allmankind, is whether he’ll be able to demonstrate his usual exuberance - and get home.
Cheltenham is a stiff track - and probably not ideally suited to his aggressive running style.
I think there is more chance of him making a mistake himself or not getting home, than there is of him breaking Shishkin - though time will tell…
Captain Guiness is a good horse - and he should run well.
However, he was no match for Energumene when they clashed at Naas in January - and I suspect he’ll be no match for Shishkin tomorrow…
If there is to be a shock, then Franco de Port is most likely to provide it.
If Allmankind goes off too fast - and Shishkin chases him too hard - then there’s a chance the race could fall apart.
Such a scenario would play into the hands of Franco de Port, who is likely to be ridden out the back, with a view to picking up the pieces late on.
I don’t really expect that to happen - but it’s not an impossible scenario…
2:30
The first handicap of the meeting - and whilst there are 15 runners, it doesn’t look overly competitive…
My short list is composed mainly of the horses at the top of the betting - and even then, one of those stands out…
Happygolucky, seems to have ticks in just about every box.
He’s a sound jumping, improving novice, who won on his most recent start over the course.
He’s been targeted at the race, by connections who have a good recent record with similar types in Cheltenham handicaps.
He finished fourth at last years festival - and should be well suited by the trip and underfoot conditions.
Clearly, you’re never going to get a certainty in a race such as this - but he’s the right favourite, so it’s just a question of what’s a fair price.
To my mind, 4/1 would seem fair...
Part of the appeal with him, is the relative paucity of opposition.
One for the Team is second favourite - and I get that.
He too is an improving novice - though he doesn’t have any course form.
Maybe he’ll take to Cheltenham like a duck to water - but then again…
Aye Right is more exposed than the 2 ahead of him in the betting - but he’s a good horse, who still seems to be improving.
He’s been placed in a couple of very strong handicaps already this season - and although his mark has risen as a consequence, it’ll be no surprise if he is placed in a third, tomorrow.
Milan Native can definitely be given a chance.
He won the Kim Muir at last seasons festival - and has probably been targeted at this race.
He will need to have improved, if he is to defy an 8lb higher mark in a stronger race - but he may well have done so.
It’s also interesting that he has undergone wind surgery since his latest outing…
Alnadam would be interesting - if the ground is soft.
He’s looked very good on a couple of occasions this season - but both races were run on soft ground.
When he ran on better ground at Kempton over Christmas, he didn’t perform anywhere near as well.
Pym could also be interesting, if he is able to bounce back to the form he showed last season, when beating Imperial Aura.
Taken at face value, that form is very strong - though the runner up almost certainly showed big subsequent improvement.
Vintage Clouds is the final one of possible interest.
He is well handicapped on a mark 1lb lower than when runner up in this race 2 years ago.
A wind op and first time cheek pieces are also both interesting moves.
However, he is now 11 and his best form is on soft ground.
I could certainly see him outrunning his odds - I just don’t know whether I could quite see him winning…
3:05
10 will go to post for the Champion hurdle - and it looks an absolute cracker !
Last years heroine, Epatante, will be defending her crown and if she’s in the same form as 12 months ago, it will take a good one to beat her.
She actually looked like she had improved, when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on her seasonal debut in November - but then disappointed next time, in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton.
That poor run was attributed to a problem with her back - and she has undergone treatment to sort it out.
If that’s been successful then she sets a very high standard.
Part of the appeal with her, is the 7lb sex allowance that she receives from most of the field.
Unfortunately for her, that doesn’t include Honeysuckle - and she looks her biggest rival.
Unbeaten in 10 runs over hurdles, she won the mares race at last seasons festival - and has also taken the last 2 runnings of the Irish champion hurdle.
She was particularly impressive when taking this seasons renewal - and on that form, holds both Abrcadabras and Sharjah.
Sharjah is also held by Epatante, on their running in last years Champion.
He finished 3 lengths adrift that day - but the race was run on soft ground - and he was given a lot to do.
On better ground - and ridden with slightly less restraint, he could go well close tomorrow.
Goshen appears the other main player in the race, after bouncing back to form with an impressive win at Wincanton last time.
He was so unlucky not to win last seasons Triumph hurdle, as he tripped himself up after jumping the final flight, when 10 lengths clear.
He was in the process of destroying a decent field that day - and only very good horses can do that.
On the flip side, he is only 5 years old - and has to give weight to more mature mares.
He really will need to be a world beater, if he’s going to do that…
Silver Streak and Aspire Tower are both good, honest horses.
However both like to lead - and they are likely to have to play second (and third) fiddle to Never so Sleepy.
He only has one way of running - and could spoil things for them both.
I can really see this race being a burn up, with the 3 front runners chased hard by Honeysuckle - and Goshen.
A lot will depend on the pace of the race - as if they go too fast, it will play into the hands of Epatante, Sharjah and Abrcadabras.
However, if the pace isn’t manic, there is a danger that those 3 will find themselves out of their ground.
It’s hard to see Honeysuckle not running her race and going very close - but not as hard to see her beaten.
Which one(s) will beat her, is likely to depend on how the race unfolds…
3:40
The third short priced favourite of the day, will line up in this race.
Concertista was a massively impressive winner of the mares novice hurdle at last years festival - and she seems to have improved this season.
She has only run twice in the interim - but has comfortably beaten Minella Melody on both occasions - and she’s a pretty useful mare herself.
On the first occasion, it was by just under 2 lengths - whilst next time, the winning margin was almost 4 times as far.
The suggestion is that Concertista is on a steep upward curve - and if that is the case, she will be very hard to beat tomorrow.
Roksana was a fortunate winner of this race 2 years ago - before being put firmly in her place by Honeysuckle and Benie des Deux, 12 months ago.
She’s taken her form to a new level this season, which is a little odd, considering she is an exposed 9 year old.
However, she has also been running over a longer trip, and it’ll be a bit surprising if she is able to maintain that improvement, dropped back to 2m4f.
Dame de Compagnie and Black Tears fought out the finish to last years Coral cup, with the former coming out on top.
However, Black Tears is 4lb better off tomorrow - and has had a better preparation, so could well be capable of reversing the form.
She has no chance of beating Concertsita, based on their meeting at Leopardstown over Christmas. However Black Tears tends has tended to show improved form in the spring, and I can see her putting up a big performance tomorrow.
Great White Shark and Indefatigable, can both be given chances of at least placing, based on their best form - but both ran disappointingly on their most recent starts.
Of slightly more interest, is Dolcita.
She has 12 lengths to make up on Concertista, based on their run at last years festival - but she has since transferred into the care of Fergal O’Brien.
His stable has been in tremendous form all season and Dolicita ran well on her debut for him at Warwick last moth.
If she can build on that, then she has a chance of making it into the frame at very big odds.
4:15
Unlike the other handicap on the card, this looks an absolute minefield !
Juvenile handicap hurdles are tricky at the best of times, but this one appears nearly impossible with a host of horses looking as if they may have been layed out for it…
Houx Gris is just about favourite, on his second run for Paul Nichols.
His first was in the grade 1 Finale, at Chepstow - and he shaped with real promise, in finishing third.
Based on that run, an opening mark of 128 looks very generous - and it’s certainly hard to see Nassalam confirming the Chepstow form, on almost a stone worse terms.
However, on his final run in France, Houx Gris only just managed to get the better of Homme Public - and he’s 4lb worse off with that rival tomorrow, for a neck beating.
In theory, that means Homme Public should reverse the form.
Ofcourse, a lot of water has subsequently gone under the bridge, but with Homme Public over twice the price of Houx Gris, it is worth bearing in mind…
To add to the confusion, Homme Public himself, is held by Tinnahalla, on their run at Catterick in February - and Tinnahalla is a 33/1 shot !
All this said there is a chance that the UK form, is not the form to concentrate on…
Prior to his debut at Fairyhouse in November, Saint Sam was considered Willie Mullins main contender for the Triumph hurdle.
He got destroyed that day, by Zanahiyr - and again by the same horse at Leopardstown over Christmas - but that one could be an exceptional talent.
Saint Sam was runner up to Quilixios last time in a grade 1 event at the Dublin Racing festival - so dropped down to handicap company tomorrow off a mark of 139, he must have a very good chance.
However, so too must Busselton.
He was 4 lengths behind Saint Sam last time - but will be 4lb better off tomorrow.
On the book, there should be little between the pair - and both with be sporting first time head gear, just to add further uncertainty !
Beyond all those already mentioned, there are at least another half dozen who are of real interest…
Riviere D’etel could easily show improvement on his first run in a handicap for Denise Foster (ex Gordon Elliott); whilst the same could be true for the Dan Skelton trained Cabot Cliffs.
Sage Advise has from that ties in with both Cabot Cliffs and Tinahalla - and is arguably better handicapped than both of them ! (he’s also trained by Dr Newland :) )
Youmdor looked potentially high class on his first 2 starts - before disappointing last time (behind Saint Sam and Busselton); whilst Coltor was very useful on the flat and looks a likely improver on his first run in a handicap.
That said, he shouldn’t beat Curious Bride, based on their form at Punchestown in January - although that one is currently only a reserve !
My feeling is that this could be just a bit too much of a puzzle, to get heavily involved with anything…
4:50
The shape of this race changed significantly, when ante-post favourite, Royal Pagaille wasn’t declared.
He’s running in the Gold cup instead - a positive move for both races…
On the back of his defection, Next Destination was switched to this race.
The original plan was to run him in the 3 mile race (former RSA) - but he would have faced Monkfish there, so this appears a much easier option.
He probably now sets the race standard.
A former dual grade 1 winning hurdle when with Willie Mullins, he is now trained by Paul Nichols and is unbeaten in 2 runs over fences.
The form is nothing special - but we know he had the ability - and both races have suggested that he still retains most of it.
The tip is an unknown - but I can’t see it being an issue - and provided his jumping holds up, he should be tough to beat.
Galvin just edges him at the top of the market.
Previously trained by Gordon Elliott, he switched into he care of Ian Ferguson, when Elliott was suspended.
That can’t be considered a positive move - though happening so close to the race, I doubt it will be too much of a negative.
Galvin has been targeted at this contest for 12 months - since finishing runner up in the novice handicap at last years festival.
That was good form and also proved his ability to handle the course.
Like Next Destination, there is slight question mark over the trip - but again, I doubt it will be an issue.
Escari Ten is next in the betting.
He too was trained by Gordon Elliott - but is now trained by Denise Foster.
His profile is a little more conventional, in that he was a fair hurdler last season - and has looked a fair chaser this season.
It’s easy to see him running well - though he doesn’t look the most obvious winner, to me…
Remastered has a similar profile to Escari Ten.
He too was a decent hurdler last season - but he’s looked much better over fences this campaign.
I was really taken by his attitude at Ascot last time, when he jumped for fun and galloped on relentlessly to beat Demachine.
That’s not top class form - but it is decent.
He seems very much on the improve and I can see tomorrows longer trip being in his favour.
Lord Royal is a difficult one to get a handle on.
He’s looked very good on a couple of occasions - and not so good on a few others !
However the fact he’s the only representatives in the race for Willie Mullins, means he has to be taken very seriously.
Of the outsiders, I could certainly give a chance to Snow Leopardess - if the ground is genuinely soft.
She has stamina to burn - and will be receiving the 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals
The other one of interest at a price, is The Mighty Don.
I doubt he will be good enough to win - but I could certainly see him travelling well in the race.
He strikes me as a good sort for an IR play…
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