Dec 19th - Preview for Ascot & Haydock

 The ground at Ascot this afternoon, looked soft without appearing to be desperate. 

However, I would expect it to be a fair bit worse tomorrow, on the back of todays action and with a bit more rain due to fall.

My expectation is that it will be worse still at Haydock, where apparently they’ve barely had a dry day in the past fortnight.

Suffice to say, it’s going to be a case of trying to find the fittest, as opposed to the most talented, horses..!

The 6 races televised on terrestrail TV are much more suitable for betting, than those on offer today.

I’d certainly be hopeful of finding a few bets - provided prices hold up….

Here are my thoughts on the best races from both Ascot and Haydock…


Ascot

1:50

Saint de Vassey has been installed early favourite for this - and he looks the most solid option in the race.
He was a good winner last time at Exeter, on his seasonal debut.
He has been raised 10lb for that win - and steps up in grade - but he looks to have potential for further improvement.
Trip and ground should be perfect - and I expect him to get an attacking ride from David Bass.
He looks the one to beat.
Bennys King ran well at this course on his penultimate outing last season, when second to Domain De L’isle.
He will be running off a mark 2lb higher tomorrow - which will make things tough for him.
However, he’s a big, strong horse, so I doubt he’ll have much issue carrying the weight.
He cuts back in trip a little tomorrow - which is a slight concern. However, the very heavy ground is likely to ensure it is still a test of stamina.
That may not sure Early du Lemo, as he is quite head strong - and unproven over further than 2 miles.
He’ll love the heavy ground - but whether he’ll get home, is a different matter.
Gardefort is the potential fly in the ointment…
He is nearing his 12th birthday and hasn’t shown anything for over 2 years: however he has dropped 21lb during that time and is now rated way below his last winning mark.
2m3f in heavy ground will be fine for him - and if Venetia has him straight - and sufficient ability remains - then he is likely to go very close.

2:25

The staying hurdle division is particularly fascinating this season - and as way the case at Newbury last month, most of the main contenders for the title of ‘best staying hurdler’ run in this race.

Thyme Hill and Paisley Park head the market, for the re-match of their Newbury duel.
Thyme Hill came out best that day - but Paisley Park is 3lb better of for a one and a half length beating.
He was also probably more in need of the run - so it’s not too hard to see him reversing the form.
That said, it’s likely to come down to which one of the pair handles conditions best - and that’s not easy to call…
Paisley Park was taken out of the corresponding race 12 months ago, on account of heavy ground - so if connections are consistent, he won’t run tomorrow.
Regardless, I’d slightly favour Thyme Hill - not that it’s just a 2 horse race…
Roksana and Main Fact are a couple of fascinating additions to the ‘battle’ - and both can be given a chance.
Roksana looked better than ever, when winning at Wetherby on the last day of October. She will handle the ground - and the 7lb sex allowance that she receives from the geldings, will always make her dangerous.
Main Fact steps out of handicap company having won his last 6 hurdle races (plus 3 on the flat, for good measure !).
He’s progressed from winning a class 4 race off a mark of 104 - but I suspect this will prove a step too far.
That said, he will relish very heavy ground - and if it does turn into a complete war, he’s likely to be staying on when others have had enough (assuming he’s not tailed off at that point !).
There are some interesting outsiders - including last years winner, The Worlds End (who is a 33/1 shot !).
The most interesting of them all though, is possibly Portrush Ted.
Whilst he’ll be 9 in a less than a month, he’s only run 4 times over hurdles - but he’s won 3 of those races.
The latest was a handicap at Sandown, off a mark of just 139. That suggests he has a lot to do - and on ratings, he does. However, I suspect he is a seriously talented animal - and could be worth a small speculative EW play at around 40/1.

3:00

It’s hard to argue with The Conditional as the favourite for this…
He was a good winner at last seasons Cheltenham festival, and came there swinging, in the Ladbrokes trophy on his seasonal debut, 3 weeks ago.
He didn’t quite go through with his effort that day - but it is unlikely that he was 100% ready.
I would certainly expect him to improve for the outing - and a 1lb drop in his rating, is a bit of a gift.
He will have no issue with the ground - so the main question is whether he has recovered from a relatively hard race, just 21 days ago.
We won’t know on that score until it’s too late - but if he has, then 7/2 is a very fair price…
Espoir de Guye steps up to 3 miles tomorrow, having won well at the course over 2m4f on his re-appearance.
That was his second win at Ascot, so he clearly like the course - and whilst he’s unproven over the trip, there is no reason to think he won’t stay.
The question is whether he has the ability to again step up in class - but he’s only 6 and whilst he continues to improve, it’s impossible to know where his limit lies…
Regal Encore has a ridiculous course record, having won at Ascot 4 times (including twice in this race).
He won over course and distance, at the end of October - and a 5lb rating rise isn’t overly harsh.
However, he will shortly be 13 - and time will catch up with him sooner, rather than later.
He’s hard to dismiss - but is also quite hard to support..!
Flying Angels only win in a handicap chase, came off the same mark he races off tomorrow - and at Ascot.
He comfortably beat Sky Pirate last November - and whilst that was over a shorter trip than he runs over tomorrow, he should stay the extra 3 furlongs.
He was certainly staying on well last time, when fourth at Aintree - and he should handle the ground.
The final one of interest, is Enfant Roi.
He is making his UK debut for Sophie Leach - and is impossible to properly assess.
However, he has plenty of winning form on heavy ground in his native France - and this is an interesting race for his UK debut.
He gets in with a feather weight - and whilst he couldn’t be supported with confidence, he is probably worth keeping on side.

3:35

As I said on Monday, when I looked at this race for the midweek ante post thread in the forum, I will have to take on Buzz…

He was an impressive winner over course and distance, last time - but he got an 11lb rating rise for that, which means he has to carry top weight tomorrow, in heavy ground.
As an ex flat horse, I just can’t see him being up to that…
Nicky Henderson is now also responsible for the second favourite: At Time Flies by.
He has a completely different profile, having only run 5 times in his life - and just 3 times over hurdles.
The issue with him will be inexperience, in such a big field race…

With those 2 out of the way (!) we can concentrate on trying to find the winner…
Benson remains the first port of call.
I was really impressed with him when he won last time at Sandown - and although he got a 10lb rise for his efforts, I think it was warranted.
His new mark is still only 137 - and that doesn’t strike me as overly high for a horse of his ability.
He’s proven on the ground - and whilst he doesn’t have big field experience, his last run was in a relatively competitive race.
He still strikes me as the one to beat.
Malaya definitely has a chance.
She has good form at Ascot and in very soft ground - so will have no issue with conditions.
He mark looks tight - but the fitting of a tongue tie may bring about some improvement and I would certainly expect her to run well.
Lightly Squeezed also has a chance - though there are a few more question marks over him.
His handicap mark is probably OK - but the ground is a slight doubt, whilst a wind op and tongue tie can be read either way…
Harambe and Oakley are similar to Malaya, in so much as there is no reason why they won’t run their races and go close - but equally, they will need to find a bit of improvement from somewhere, if they are to win.
Belfast Banter is impossible to assess.
He travels over from Ireland for Peter Fahey - a man not renowned for his UK raids.
That said, it was a similar story last week with Chatham Street Lad - and he bolted up !
I don’t really associate Peter Fahey will gambles but it’s a very interesting move, to bring over a novice to run in a race like this.
Close studying of his form, doesn’t really persuade me that he’ll be up to the job - but despite that, he’ll definitely be covered in the Matrix, if I use it on this race !

Haydock

2:05

All things being equal, I’d be quite keen on War Lord in this…
He won an arguably better race over course and distance, last time - and a 7lb rating rise doesn’t appear overly harsh.
Certainly, he appears to be a progressive young horse - and he should have no issue with the likely heavy ground.
The issue is that he’s trained by Colin Tizzard - and his horses haven’t been running well for most of the season.
You could maybe take a risk at a big price - but at 3/1, in a competitive handicap, you want most things in your favour.
The trouble is, this doesn’t look a particularly strong race.
Alberts Back is the obvious alternative, following his comfortable last time out win at Wetherby.
However, he is now 5lb higher - and this is a stronger race. He’s also unproven on bottom-less ground…
The ground is the main worry with Our Power, who otherwise would have a fair chance of reversing last time form with War Lord, on 6lb better terms.
The Last Day will cope with the ground - and is well handicapped based on his chase form.
However, that is the issue with him - he’s a chaser and this race is over hurdles !
McGowans Pass will relish the heavy ground - but the trip is an unknown.
He’s also tackling stronger opposition than normal.
Electron Blue could certainly outrun his odds - as he is reasonably handicapped and should handle the ground.
However, he’s another for whom this is a step up in class and it remains to be seen whether he is up to it...

2:40

It’s not too surprising to see that Sojourn has been backed into favouritism for this.
He was a hugely impressive winner at Carlisle last time - and thoroughly deserved his subsequent 11lb rating rise.
He’ll relish conditions - and whilst this race represents a step up in grade, he’s only 7 and clearly improving fast.
Hill Sixteen is disputing favouritism with him - but his case doesn’t look as strong.
He was as impressive as Sojourn, when winning at Ffos Las - but that didn’t look as strong a race and he has a further half mile to travel tomorrow.
In fairness he did win over 3 miles last time - but that was a hurdle race on quick ground, so a very different test.
It’s not that he won’t be able to handle it - just that we don’t know - and you need something in the price to compensate for the uncertainty.
Enqad has been installed third favourite - on his first run over fences in the UK.
He’s impossible to assess, having only run twice over hurdles for current connections.
He has won over fences in his native France - and he’ll probably handle the ground - but whether he’ll relish 3 miles in the Haydock mud, is anyones guess…
Lord Napier caught my eye last time, in a decent novice chase a Chepstow.
He only managed to finish second that day - but may well have faced a near impossible task, trying to give the winner 10lb.
Based on is best form over hurdles, he is well handicapped on a mark of 132. And whilst he’s unproven over the trip on heavy ground - there’s a fair chance he will cope with it.
Salty Boy is the final one of interest.
He’s hard to construct a solid case for - but I do have a suspicion he can win off his current mark.
I actually had a suspicion that he could win off a mark 3lb higher - which is why I made him a Best bet last time, at Ascot !
He wasn’t up to that task - and I can’t be sure he will relish tomorrows test - but he will definitely remain on my radar, regardless…

3:15

I was hoping that Queenofhearts might be a price in this…
She’s not run for nearly 2 years - and returning over 3 miles in the Haydock mud, is quite an ask (particularly as she’s never previously tackled the trip).
However, despite the doubts, she’s be installed the 11/4 fav - and if she does drift, the worry will be that it’s due to fitness concerns.
If she is fit - and does stay the trip - then I suspect she has the class to win from her current mark.
I’m not sure I will want to take less than 3/1 though…
The trouble is, it looks a weak race.
No Hiding Place is second favourite on the back of a win at Carlisle.
However, he’s 2lb higher tomorrow - and it’s a stronger contest.
Goodbye Dancer would have a big chance if he bounced back to form. However that was the case when he ran at Cheltenham a week ago.
He showed little then - and I doubt a 2lb rating drop will make much difference.
Label des Obeaux is dropping down the handicap - and is likely to win one sooner rather than later.
I thought he had a chance last time at Market Rasen - but he didn’t show a great deal.
However, he should be a little fitter for that: has been dropped a further 3lb in the ratings - and, perhaps most interestingly, has a 10lb claimer in the saddle.
That does suggest some intent - even if I’m not entirely convinced that he wants bottomless ground…

Dec 18th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Ascot

3:05
Pic D'orhy 5 units win 7/2


Best bets

Ascot

3:05
Pic D'orhy 0.5pt win 7/2
  

The races were never really there, for betting today - and the softening ground and non runners, have just made things worse…

I had intended to get involved in the opener - via the Matrix - but NRs have completely messed that up and it’s now hard to get a proper handle on the race.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just the one bet on the day: Pic D’Orhy.
I think it can be argued that he should be favourite - so 7/2 (or bigger !) seems like a fair bet.

Hopefully there will be more opportunities tomorrow: the racing looks more suitable and I should also have a better feel for the ground…


Ascot

I originally planned to tackle the opener via the Matrix - but the withdrawal of Jacamar, spoilt that idea as he was my fancied outsider.
The other 2 I fancied were Shang Tang and Chazza - but they had both edged close to the head of the betting, which always makes it tricky.
Shang Tang is now also a NR - which could have made things easier.
However, Chazza is only available at 5/1 - and that’s too short in a race where most of the remaining 12 runners can be given a chance.
I’ll nap him in the forum competition, instead !

Everglow should win the 1:20 - but a price of 4/7 already tells you that !

I like Mack the Man in the 1:55 - but something was always going to stop me from suggesting him.
The absence of Numitor greatly improves the chance of Editeur du Gite, as he could get an uncontested lead, which would make him very dangerous.
He’s certainly worth considering as a pre-race back, to lay IR, at very least…

I like Soaring Glory best in the 2:30 - but there is too much guesswork to consider getting involved at 3/1.
My Drogo is the theoretical value at 6/1 - but again, there is a lot of guesswork involved.

Pic D’Orhy strikes me as just about the most likely winner of the 3:05.
I can see potential issues with the 2 other market leaders; whilst the 3 outsiders will need to show improved form if they are to win (which they may well do).
Clearly Pic D’Orhy isn’t bomb proof himself - but I think there is sufficient margin in a price of 7/2, to warrant a small risk.

Dec 18th - Preview for Ascot

 My expectation is that the Ascot 2 day meeting, will open tomorrow, on heavy ground. 

There’s always a slight doubt, where ground conditions are concerned - but the going description is currently ‘soft - heavy in paces’ - and there is more rain forecast.

In truth, it’s a pretty uninspiring card…

There are only 6 races - and one of those is a bumper.
Add to that a 5 runner maiden hurdle - and you are left with just 4 races, in which there is any hope of finding a bet.

The 2 handicaps look the most likely sources of action - and if I do manage to find anything, I’ll advise after 10:00 in the morning.

Here are my early thoughts on the first 5 races (I’m swerving the bumper completely !)


Ascot

12:45

This is probably the best betting race on the card - it’s just a shame it’s not on terrestrial TV (as the market won’t be as strong)

Castle Robin beat Steal a March in a similar race at the Cheltenham November meeting - and both are well fancied in this.
However, this strikes me as a stronger contest - and as both horses have been raised in the handicap, I’ll be happy to take them on, at the likely odds…

Zyon was impressive when winning at Wincanton, last month on his first run for over a year.
It’s impossible to gauge the strength of the form - but he looked a nice horse and bearing in mind his connections, it’s no surprise to see him disputing early favouritism.
Shang Tong was a comfortable winner last time - albeit he only faced 4 rivals.
As a piece of form, his previous third to Arrivederci at Wetherby, is much stronger. The runner up in that race subsequently won a decent race at Haydock - and Shang Tong still had every chance running to the last.
He’s off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow - but he still sets the race standard.
Chazza ran a good race last time, when second to Beffniboy at Leicester.
The winner went in again at Cheltenham last week, so the form has a solid look.
Chazza led that day - and kept on strongly when passed. It was the same story on his previous run at Bangor, when he got back up having been passed on the run to the last.
He looks like he will benefit significantly from the step up in trip that he gets tomorrow…
Jacamar caught my eye last time, when staying on strongly in a decent race at Newbury.
When he won earlier in the season at Aintree, it was on soft ground, so he should appreciate tomorrows ground.
There’s probably not a lot of room for error, in his handicap mark - but I would expect him to run well and be staying on late.

1:20

I doubt ITV will show many weaker races this season, than this one…

A 5 runner class 3 maiden hurdle - it wouldn’t have looked out of place on todays Hereford card (with all due respect to Hereford !).
Everglow looks the one to beat.
He contested a listed bumper on his second start last season: and began this campaign by running in the grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle.
He didn’t cut much ice in either event - but has finished runner up on his 2 other starts, which were in more mundane company.
Last time, he was unlucky to bump into Star Gate - as that one could be exceptional.
I doubt he will face any exceptional performers tomorrow - which means he is highly like to break his duck.
If there is an upset, then Fearless Fracas looks the one most likely to provide it - but it’s probably just a race to watch…

1:55

This is a fair novice handicap chase - though based solely on hurdles form, I would be very keen on Mack the Man.
He beat Protektorat and Song for Someone at Sandown last December - which is exceptionally strong form.
More than that, he looked like going very close in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury in February - but was unluckily brought down at the final flight.
He runs off the same mark tomorrow - and on ground he will relish, he does look to have a very strong chance, from a handicapping perspective.
Ofcourse the potential issue is the fences !
He’s only run once over the bigger obstacles, when well beaten by Hitman at Ffos Las, last month.
In fairness, Hitman is a probably a graded animal, so there wasn’t too much shame in being beaten 30 lengths.
It also very much looked like an educational outing for Mack the Man and I sure he can improve massively on it.
The question is whether he will do tomorrow…
The race could be set up for him, with Editeur du Gite and Numitor likely to force a strong pace.
Provided he doesn’t get too far out of his ground, then he could easily pick them off, late on.
If things don’t work out for him, then Flegmatic could be the one to take advantage.
He was a good winner at Carlisle on his chasing debut and then had no luck at all, last time at Sandown (he was twice hampered by fallers).
He doesn’t have the class of Mack the Man - but is more likely to run his race.

2:30

This is an interesting little novice hurdle - but a hard race to call with much confidence.
Llandinabo Lad, No Ordinary Joe, My Drago and Soaring Glory, are all disputing favouritism.
Llandinabo Lad has to give 5lb to his rivals, on the back of his win in a Listed race at Haydock, last time.
He showed great tenacity to come out on top that day - but he’ll be doing well to concede the weight tomorrow, to some potentially talented rivals.
No Ordinary Joe will be having his first run over hurdles, having won a bumper last time, on his debut at Sandown.
He was quite impressive that day - but there is no substitute for experience, and he hasn’t got any !
He’ll need to be very good indeed, to take this race on his first attempt over timber.
As a consequence, My Drogo and Soaring Glory could be the 2 to focus on.
The former won well at Newbury last time, having previously finished runner up in a strong bumper at Cheltenham.
Soaring Glory is the most experienced of the main contenders.
He finished second in the bumper on this card, 12 months ago: and won on his hurdling debut at Chepstow, in October.
He failed by a couple of lengths, to give 6lb to Dusart at Newbury - but he might have been attempting an impossible task.
He would probably have won last time at Wetherby, but took a fall at the second last hurdle, when in the lead.
Provided he’s suffered no lasting effects, I would expect him to run well.
Neither of the 2 outsiders can be completely dismissed - though they do both look to have plenty on…

3:05

A little like the previous race, this is a very interesting contest - but maybe not the best betting medium…

This time there are 3 horses vying for favouritism in the early market: Fiddlerontheroof, Allart and Pic D’orhy.
Fiddlerontheroof won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle last season - but he’s been a little disappointing since then
In fairness, he’s not run too badly in his 4 subsequent starts - but his limitation do seem to have been exposed.
He finished quite a way behind Allart in last seasons Supreme novice hurdle - despite starting at a much shorter price.
His 3 runs over fences this season, have yielded a win and 2 seconds - but they seem to suggest he is roughly a 150 horse.
That might be good enough to win this race - but it might not…
Allart has the potential to improve beyond it on his chasing debut - though it’s impossible to know whether he will do.
Pic D’Orhy also retains potential - despite having already run twice over fences.
He looked as if he needed his seasonal debut, when second at Market Rasen; and then fell when still in the lead, at Ascot last time.
His win in last seasons Betfair hurdle, is stronger form than any of his rivals can manage - and as he’s still only 5, it’s reasonable to assume he has scope for further improvement.
The other 3 can all be given a chance of some sort.
Bold Plan did well to run down The Big Breakaway at Exeter last time - though it’s hard to get a handle on that form and a 3lb penalty won’t help his cause.
Kiltealy Briggs and Antunes can both boast reasonable form over hurdles - and have shown some promise on their respective attempts over fences.
However, they lack that bit of star quality, and that will count against them if one of the market leaders fulfils its potential.

Review of the weekend - Dec 11th-12th

 As most of you are aware, I introduced the Matrix this season, to try and counter the impact of luck… 

The theory was: more bets, should mean less variance.
However, that’s not quite how it’s been working out !

They endured the same shocking run of luck as the Best bets, during the first 3 weeks of the season: and now that the Best bets luck has settled, they’ve embarked on a run of luck of their own - which if anything, is surpassing those first few traumatic weeks !

Friday

The first day of the 2 day International meeting got underway on ground described as ‘soft - good to soft in places’.
I’m getting a bit twitchy about judging ground conditions - so I kept things relatively light in terms of Best bets - with just the 2.

I was particularly keen on the first of them: Kalashnikov - as I felt he would be able to handle ground conditions however they were riding.

In truth, I’m not sure that was quite the case, as he seemed to find everything happening a bit too quick.
Maybe the issue was the trip, as opposed to the ground - as he could now need 3 miles…

Whatever the reason, he was never travelling as easily as I would have liked - though equally, he was never out of contention.

When Fanion Destruval fell at the third last, it removed one of the big dangers - though he still had to master the other: Mister Fisher.

That looked unlikely on the run between the final 2 flights - but Kalashnikov got the better jump at the last and it did briefly look as if his greater stamina was going to win the day.
Alas however, Mister Fisher had still got some petrol in the tank - and it was he who pulled away on the run to the line.

It was a frustrating race, as I couldn’t see past the first 2 home and Fanion - and I covered the latter in the Matrix.
My expectation was that the ground would be a bit too soft for Mister Fisher - but he got away with it - and was just a bit better than Kalashnikov.

The other Best bet on the day, was Out Sam.
I put him up earlier in the season, when he finished a creditable fifth in the Cork national - but I fancied him more this time.

However, he too seemed to get caught out by ground which was quicker than I expected.
He could just never get into a rhythm, and Sean Bowen had to continually chip away at him.

It was to his credit, that he did eventually run on to finish fourth - though he never remotely looked like winning.

In addition to him, I also covered a couple of more speculative ones for the Matrix: Beau de Brizais and Defi des Carres.

The former ran a fair race to finish fifth - but the latter was incredibly unlucky not to win…

He set out to make all - and jumping the last, was still 3 lengths clear.
He didn’t even appear to be stopping up the hill - but his jockey made the fatal mistake of not grabbing the rail, and Some Neck collared him, literally on the line.

He was matched at 1.02 in running - and to be honest, that looked generous !

The 34 units would have been very welcome for the Matrix - but it was not to be…

The only other suggested bet on the day, was Torcello, for the Matrix.
He ran a good race for a 40/1 shot - but weakened out of things, in the home straight…

The days other races generally went as the preview/rationale suggested - and I was left wondering how I’d managed to lose ! (officially speaking).

Make me a Believer won the opener - and even drifted out to an almost acceptable price (around 7/2); Happygolucky won the novice chase - and whilst I wouldn’t have backed him at the price, I did respect his chance.
Lively Citizen was just pipped in the handicap hurdle by Breffniboy.
I didn’t fancy the winner - but the runner up would have been in a full matrix (if I’d issued one !).
Black Tulip and Nikap were my 2 main fancies in the mare chase - and they filled the places behind surprise winner, Madeira Mist.
Storm Controls victory was a bit annoying, as he was anther one who I had dismissed mainly in the expectation that the ground would be too soft.
Finally, Come on Teddy won the last.
The issue with him wasn’t the ground - it was the price.
8/1 the evening before had become 4/1 at the time when I issued - and whilst he drifted out to 11/2 at the off, that happened too late…

Between them, ground conditions, price crashes and luck, certainly make this a challenging occupation !!


Saturday 

Despite there being a quite lot of races, it ended up a relatively quiet day - from a bets perspective.

There were just 3 Best bets - along with a few Matrix bets in a couple of the other races.

Born Survivor was the first Best bet to run.

He hadn’t been my original fancy in the race - but a price crash on Sky Pirate caused me to go looking for an alternative - and I came up with him !

However, he got hampered by the early fall of Forest Bihan - and never managed to get back into the race.

In accordance with Sods Law, Sky Pirate then proceeded to hack up - and after drifting in price !
Fortunately, the Matrix allows me to cover such eventualities - so for once, there was a silver lining attached to the cloud !

That wasn’t the case in the next race - and it maybe should have been…

I issued Midnight Shadow as a Best bet - and he ran an absolute cracker.
In truth, he was as good a pick as Cap du Nord and Cloth Cap - and really should have won just as easily.

He travelled beautifully through the race - and it was clear from a long way out that he was going to go very close.

Unfortunately for him (and us !), Chatham Street Lad travelled even more sweetly - and it became apparent turning in, that he was likely to hack up !

I have to admit that I wished him an unseat, at the second last - but alas, it didn’t happen !
Instead he pinged it - and strode clear on the run to the last.
He pinged that as well - and won by 15 lengths in a hack canter.

Grade 1 handicaps don’t get won like that - certainly not by a horse that was rated 118 just 3 runs back.

His trainer Mick Winter, said it was down to a change in his diet - and I did wonder what they had been feeding him ! (maybe some of my sour grapes !).

Anyway, Midnight Shadow won't go down as an ‘unlucky’ loser - but he was.
Running into a horse with nearly 2 stone in hand is unlucky (in fact, it should be impossible !).
Midnight Shadow beat the rest by 12 lengths - which itself was ridiculous - yet he wasn’t in shot when Chatham Hill Lad passed the line…

With hindsight, I should have covered the winner in the Matrix: I did pick him out as a potential ‘wild card’ in the preview - but didn’t act on it…

As a consequence, it was left to Hurricane Harvey to try and save the day for the Best bets.
I’ve been intending to get involved with some of the small field novice chases, when I can see potential flaws in the favourites - and that was the case with his race.

Part of the issue with such races however, is that the markets can be particularly tight.
Unlike the big field handicaps, prices often don't hold up, as everyone is either backing one horse - or the other !

That wasn’t a particular issue today - though the SP of 5/2 was as short as I would have wanted to go…

In the race itself, Hurricane Harvey tracked the front running Milanford - and pounced between the final 2 fences.
It was a hard fought win - but it was well deserved - with the favourite, Ofalltheginjoints, finishing well beaten…

Arguably I should have staked higher - but it was a bit of an experiment, so I didn’t want to go mad.
Maybe I’ll be feeling a bit braver next time !

I also covered a couple of other races, for the Matrix.

After yesterdays incredible near miss in the cross country chase, I was hopeful that the luck pendulum would swing in their direction - but it was not to be…

In the International hurdle I couldn’t choose between Verdana Blue and Silver Streak.
The heart said Verdana - whilst the head said Silver.
As a consequence, I ended up with 3 units on each…

Verdana travelled nicely, to a point - but couldn’t find anything up the hill.
I might have to acknowledge that she is no longer the force she was.
Silver Streak on the other hand, battled all the way to the line.
However, he was short of room at a crucial point - and try as he might, he just couldn’t reel in Song for Someone.
It was a bit of a sickener, as he failed by just a nose - costing the Matrix another 30 units.
That’s over 60 units in 2 days…
Things didn’t get any better for the final Matrix bet.
That was Skipthecuddles at Doncaster - but his race was effectively over at the second fence when Chidswell broadsided him.
When your luck is out…

There wasn’t too much else to report from the other races on the day.
The juvenile hurdles were both won by heavily odds on favourites - as expected.
And whilst Chantry House was beaten in the novice chase - it was by Fussil Raffles and not Quel Destin (as I had hoped).
The mares hurdle was won by The White Mouse - who put in a good effort fend off Eglantine du Seuil; whilst Make Good won the the novice hurdle.
I did fancy him - but felt there was too much guesswork to consider an involvement at 8/1.
His SP of 12/1 was far more tempting - and a few of those on the Live Thread managed to better that - which was at least something…

TVB.         

Dec 12th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Cheltenham

1:15
Born Survivor 5 units win 18/1
Sky Pirate 2 units win 7/2

1:50
Midnight Shadow 5 units win 11/1

3:00
Verdana Blue 3 units win 14/1
Silver Streak 3 units win 8/1

Doncaster

2:05
Hurricane  Harvey 5 units win 3/1

3:15
Skipthecuddles 2 units win 25/1


Best bets

Cheltenham

1:15
Born Survivor 0.5pt win 18/1

1:50
Midnight Shadow 0.5pt win 11/1 (FP 12/1)

Doncaster

2:05
Hurricane Harvey 0.5pt win 3/1

  

Despite previewing 10 races last night, there weren’t that many which were suitable for tipping…

The 2 juvenile hurdles were out; tipping in 4 horse novice chases, is not a path I’ve previously gone down; whilst the novice hurdle at Cheltenham held minimal appeal.
I was therefore left with the 4 handicaps - plus the International hurdle.

2 of the handicaps (the final races on both cards), look nearly impossible to solve - as does the International hurdle.

I found Best bets in the 2 other races - and then looked again for some more obscure opportunities.

I found one more Best bet, in one of the small field novice chases - plus a couple of races which I was prepared to get involved with, via Matrix.

Some times it happens: days which look like they should yield plenty of opportunities end up yielding very few.

Let’s just hope that the ones I did manage to dig out, justifies the effort !


Cheltenham

There is too much guesswork required, to ever consider getting involved in the Cheltenham opener (12:05).
If forced, I would probably side with the unraced Simply True - who looks as if he could be a bit of value at 14/1.
I’m not being forced though…

I got very close to putting up Quel Destin against Chantry House in the 12:40.
I have it in mind, that I am going to take on a few ‘hot pots’ in small field novice chases - and have done precisely that at Doncaster.
I can certainly make a good case for Quel Destin - but something is stopping me from making him a Best bet.
I’ll nap him in the December naps competition, instead !

I’m sure that me making Born Survivor a Best bet, caught out a few of you diligent preview readers !
First of all, I should say that it wasn’t me trying to be ‘clever’. When I previewed the race last night, he didn’t feature on my short list.
My original intention was to go with Sky Pirate - however his price crashed yesterday evening (from 5/1 in to 7/2).
I also re-watched videos of his 2 recent runs - and his finishing effort was very weak.
I would expect it to be better over 2 miles - but he’ll still be facing the Cheltenham hill at the end !
I therefore watched videos of the other main contenders, as it felt like a race I should be able to solve.
When Magic Saint won at Cheltenham, Born Survivor was running in the same race.
He was going just as well as the winner, when he nearly uprooted the third last.
It cost him about 5 lengths - plus momentum.
Ultimately, he was beaten 13 lengths - but is 11lb better off today.
That should mean there is little between the pair - but Born Survivor is 3 times the price.
I also suspect he will be spot on today…
He’s no certainty - but he’s a ‘value bet’, with a decent chance.
For the Matrix, I’ll save on Sky Pirate, just in case I’ve over-complicated things !

In the big race (1:50), I’ve decided to side with Midnight Shadow.
I think his sixth place in last seasons Marsh chase, is the best form on show - and he’s also won at 2 of his other 3 course visits.
It’s a very competitive race - full of potential improvers, so it won’t be easy to win.
That said, I think he has a better chance than most.
I’ve gone off Coole Cody a bit, mainly because Champagne Mystery is running.
He’s another confirmed front runner, so Coole Cody is unlikely to get the unconstested lead that he got in the Paddy Power…

I like Ask a Honey Bee best in the the 2:25 - but I don’t like the fact that Paddy Brennan isn’t riding him.
It’s nothing against Connor Brace - but you don’t put up a 3lb claimer, who is unable to claim, if you want to give yourself the best chance of winning a race.
In truth, it’s a very hard race to call regardless, so I’m happy to just watch…

I got quite close to making Verdana Blue a Best bet in the 3:00.
That was my intention - but she shouldn’t really beat Silver Streak.
I then toyed with making them both Best bets - but this is a very open contest.
Victory for all bar a couple of the runners, wouldn’t come as a big surprise.
There is also the ‘Goshen factor’.
Gary Moore is very bullish about his chances - and that’s not his style.
He could easily blow the race apart - so even if I’d manage to pick the right one of the others, it would be immaterial…
I decided to cover both of my fancies in the Matrix - but stopped short of making either one a Best bet.

When I first looked at the 3:35, I was drawn to Eglantine du Seuil.
However, I then talked myself out of her, figuring she was running to get her mark down.
Now I’m not so sure !
She’s very strong in the betting (very strong indeed) - and she could easily be good enough to win this.
I couldn’t put her up at 4/1 - but equally, I’m disinclined to oppose her when there’s nothing I really fancy taking her on with.


Doncaster

As I mentioned, I’m quite keen to add a new string to my bow, by taking on suspect favourites in small field novice chases.
I can make a good case for Hurricane Harvey in the 2:05 - and it is added to, by the fact that Paddy Brennan is riding him .
The form of Colin Tizzards stable is a negative for Ofalltheginjoints - so this feels like a good race to start the experiment !

I was never going to touch the juvenile hurdle (2:40).
Monmiral should win - but I’ll be watching him do so !

The finale on the Doncaster card is a hard one to call. It reminds me of the last race at Cheltenham yesterday, in that you’ve got lots of old horses taking on a few young ones.
A young one won yesterday - and that may well be the case in this race, with Boldmere a solid favourite.
However, I’m prepared to risk a few Matrix units on Skipthecuddles.
He really is potentially well handicapped, so if connections have him right, after his 2 year absence, then he should go very close.

Dec 12th - Preview for Cheltenham & Doncaster

 Despite the official description being changed to ‘soft - good to soft in places’ the ground at Cheltenham this afternoon, wasn’t quite as soft as I expected..! 

It probably cost Kalashnikov (or more accurately, greatly improved the chance of Mister Fisher); whilst Out Sam couldn’t go the pace in the cross country race.

As I said in yesterdays preview, it’s impossible to know until it’s too late - plus, we are also talking relatively small differences.

Anyway, with no rain forecast prior to racing, at least I know what to expect tomorrow !

That said, finding winners still won’t be easy - it never is at Cheltenham.

In addition to Cheltenham, there is also televised racing from Doncaster.

The ground there today, was riding similar to that at Cheltenham - however, there is further rain forecast for tomorrow…

As a reminder, I will look to issue any suggested bets, tomorrow morning, after 9:00.


Cheltenham

12:05

The card opens with a juvenile hurdle - and it doesn’t look the strongest such event, ever to be run.
Adagio heads the betting after his creditable second to Duffle Coat at the November meeting.
He looked to have the race won that day, until he was chased down by the strong finishing winner.
If he can run to the same level of form tomorrow, he will be hard to beat.
Son of Red and Elham Valley have both won their sole hurdles starts.
Son of Red just got up at Newcastle; whilst Elham Valley was a visually more impressive winner, at Sandown.
However, that race was only a week ago - and in heavy ground. I’d be a little concerned about him being turned out again, so quickly.
The pair of them also have to concede weight to all of their rivals - and that’s a big ask.
Potentially more interesting, are Shake a Leg and Simply True.
They will both be making their debuts over hurdles - but both showed reasonable form on the flat in Ireland, and come from yards, quite capable of readying a juvenile to score first time out.
If either gets to a big price, they could be worth a small risk - accepting that there s a lot of guesswork involved…

12:40

There may be only 4 runners - but this still looks an interesting contest.
Chantry House has been installed favourite - but that’s because he has the most potential.
He finished third to Shiskin in last years Supreme hurdle - and began his chasing career with a good win at Ascot.
The sky is still the limit for him - which is why he is such a short price.
Interestingly, he is rated 8lb inferior to Quel Destin over hurdles - but has to give him 5lb tomorrow.
Quel Destin himself has only run once over fences - when runner up to Eldorado Allen at the November meeting.
That wasn’t a bad debut effort - and he should appreciate the step up to 2m4f.
He could well be the value option in the race.
The final one of interest, is Fusil Raffles.
He finished behind Quel Destin, last time - and has to concede him 8lb.
According to the book, he has no chance - but he will appreciate better ground (assuming he gets it !) and also the longer trip…

1:15

This is an interesting looking race, which I would be quite hopeful of solving…

Ibleo has been installed favourite - and on soft ground, I would look no further for the winner. However, I don’t think he’ll be as effective on a quicker surface…
The issue is judging how much his performance will be effected by the quicker ground - and it’s virtually impossible to work out.
For the time being, he has to be on the short list.
Sky Pirate is also on the short list.
He’s very unusual, in that he’s run 16 times under rules previously, but this will be the first time he’s tried the minimum trip.
Generally, horses step up in trip as their career progress - not down !
However, it’s an understandable move, as he’s a strong traveller - who doesn’t always see out his races.
That was the case in the Paddy Power gold cup last time, when he looked likely to go very close jumping the last - but ultimately finished only fifth.
If he has the speed to handle the drop in trip, then he is handicapped to go very close.
Most of the others look like they have little in hand of the handicapper.
That’s certainly true of the Paul Nicholls pair - Magic Saint and Capeland.
I would expect them both to run well - but neither should really win…
Zanza is the potential improver - but the race fell apart for him at Newbury last time - and he is 7lb higher tomorrow.
Forest Bihan is of some interest at a big price.
He has little in hand of his mark - and fell last time over hurdles. However, he should be well suited to tomorrows test - assuming he is 100%.

1:50

It was a bit disappointing to see Musical Slave just miss the cut for the big race - as I quite liked his chances. If anyone did back him, you should get your money back (as he was balloted out)
As a result the ante-post position relies on Coole Cody - and he has a chance and is still a fair bet at around 10/1.
That said, this is a very open race…
Al Dancer probably just about deserves to be favourite, on the back of his third to Coole Cody in the Paddy Power.
He meets in the winner on 6lb better terms for 4 lengths - and there should be little between them.
Cepage definitely has a chance - running off a mark just 1lb higher than when successful over course and distance in January.
He also runs well fresh - and it’s not hard to see him being placed, at very least.
My big field concerns with Master Tommytucker, remain - whilst I doubt the ground will be soft enough for Windsor Avenue.
Midnight Shadow is a previous course and distance winner - and he definitely has a chance.
He finished sixth in the Marsh chase at the festival - and the 2 horses immediately in front of him: Tornado Flyer and Mister Fisher, have really franked the form in the past week.
He was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Aintree - but if he has come on for that run, he should run a really big race.
Chatham Street Lad and Champagne Mystery are 2 potential wild cards.
It’s hard to construct a concrete case for either - but I suspect they could both have big runs in them.
The last named in particular, is likely to give it a real go from the front and could be a decent pre-race back to lay IR.

2:25

The victory of Come on Teddy in the last at Cheltenham today, was a big boost for the chance of Ashtown Lad in this.
Ashtown Lad beat him out of sight at Uttoxeter last month - and whilst it’s a big step up from handicap company to Grade 2 level, Ashtown Lad may well be able to handle it.
That said, he has half a length to make up on Ask a Honey Bee, from when the pair clashed at Wetherby in October.
It’s going to come down to which one has made the greater subsequent improvement - though I don’t see it as a positive, that Paddy Brennan has opted to go to Doncaster, rather than ride him.
As a consequence, 3lb claimer Connor Brace takes the ride - even though he can’t claim his 3lb…
On official ratings, Make Good is the best horse in the race - and it’s interesting that John McConnel has sent him over from Ireland.
McConnel has a very good strike rate with his limited raids on Cheltenham - whilst Richard Johnson is an eye catching jockey booking.
Most of the others can be given a chance of sorts, so it’s not an easy race to feel confident about…

3:00

Conditions hurdles are often disappointing, small field affairs - but not this one !
This is an absolute cracker - as fascinating, as it’s tricky to solve…

Goshen has been made favourite, on his first run over hurdles, since an incredibly unlucky capitulation at the final flight in the Triumph hurdle.
In all the years I’ve watched racing, I’ve never seen such a bizarre fall (his back hoof got caught on his front one, as he was jumping the hurdle) - and it would be hard to begrudge him victory, if he wins tomorrow.
Whether he will win however, is a completely different matter.
In truth, it’s hard to be dogmatic, either way…
Tomorrow will see his first run in open company - and whilst the opposition aren’t world beaters, most of them are pretty useful.
Summerville Boy might prove to be an issue for Goshen, as down in trip, he is likely to try to force the pace.
Stormy Island also likes to get on with things - so one way or another, Goshen is unlikely to get his own way of things up front.
A strong pace on decent ground, should play into the hands of both Silver Streak and Verdana Blue.
They met at Kempton in October when despite being sent off a very short priced favourite, Verdana Blue was no match for Silver Streak.
That was a disappointing run from Verdana Blue - and whilst she did a bit better on her next start at Wetherby, she still lost a race that she should have won.
Maybe she’s not quite the horse she was - or maybe something hasn’t been quite right with her.
We should learn more tomorrow…
Song for Someone is on a steep upward curve - and on current form, is probably the one to beat.
That said, it will take a career best if he is to win.

3:35

Dan Skelton runs 2 in this - and whilst a chance can be given to Molly Ollies Wishes, it looks significant, that brother Harry rides Aggy With it.
She will be making her handicap debut, after a series of runs in novice events.
She seems to be improving with racing, having won her 2 most recent starts.
Prior to the first of her wins, she split Perfect Myth and Mrs Hyde.
That’s good form and suggests she is competitively handicapped off a mark of 127.
There is also likely to be improvement in her - and I can certainly see her running well (and also being very well backed !)
The White Mouse beat Perfect Myth at Wincanton last month.
That was her first run for 18 months - but she was clearly ready for it.
She’s been raised 8lb for her efforts - but provided she is in similar form, I would expect her to put in another good performance.
Miah Grace was unlucky to run into a very well handicapped rival last time in the shape of Mario de Pail .
She was only beaten half a length - and it was 14 lengths back to the third.
In the circumstances, a 4lb weight rise, is probably fair…
By contrast, Indefatigable looks too high in the handicap on a mark of 151; whilst I also suspect that Eglatine de Seuil is running, with a view to getting a few pounds off her mark (though she arguably, isn’t too badly handicapped).
The Bay Birch is potentially very well handicapped, with a rating 20lb below her last winning mark !
However, that was over fences - and whilst she has shown a bit of promise in some of her recent runs, it’s hard to anticipate what’s expected tomorrow.
As always, the market is likely to guide - if she is subject to any late support, take note ! 

Doncaster

2:05

It’s interesting to see Paddy Brennan at Doncaster, when he could presumably have taken some decent rides at Cheltenham.
Either the ones that Fergal is sending to Cheltenham aren’t as good as they appear - or one of his runners at Doncaster is well fancied…
If it’s the latter case, then it may well be Hurricane Harvey in this (or Alexander James, in the opener !).
He was a decent novice hurdler last season - and the form of his final run, when third to McFabulous and Severano at Sandown, now looks particularly strong.
He beat Emitom on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter - before getting outpaced by GA Law at Wincanton.
There was no shame in that - and I can see him being well suited by the step up in trip tomorrow.
Offalltheginjoints was a good winner at Exeter last time - and as a result of that, is the highest rated horse in the field.
However, it’s not easy to get a proper handle on that form - and his previous third place behind Acey Milan at Aintree, was nothing special.
He may be well thought of, but it’s hard to justify the odds discrepancy between him and Hurricane Harvey.
House Island can also also be given a chance, after his workmanlike victory at Ludlow.
Like Hurricane Harvey, he should benefit from a step up in trip.
Even the outsider, Milanford, can’t be dismissed.
He’s only run once under rules - when runner up to L’air du Vent at Exeter.
The winner didn’t frank that form today - but I wouldn’t be too inclined to hold that against Milanford.

2:40

This is a pretty uninspiring race - particularly considering there is a £28K first prize !

Monmiral sets the standard on the back of his easy win at Exeter, on his UK debut.
He also won his only start in France - and clearly is a useful animal.
How good exactly, is impossible to gauge - but Paul Nicholls will have a good feel for that - and the fact he represents him in this race, suggests he is very much the one to beat.
It’s quite interesting, that Gordon Elliott sends over Glorious Zoff.
He has little to find with Monmiral on official ratings - though was very disappointing last time, when beaten at Sedgefield.
If that run can be ignored, then he could be capable of giving the favourite a race.
There are no obvious angles for any of the 3 outsiders - though it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if one of them was to run well.
That said, the race holds minimal appeal as a betting medium…

3:15

This race can be split in 2: with 3 young potential improvers, taking on 7 older, horses, who are all likely to be on the downgrade (to a greater or lesser extent).
Maybe unsurprisingly, the betting favours the ‘young guns’ and they head of the market.
Boldmere has been installed favourite - returning to the scene of his last win.
That was in a fair handicap last December - and whilst he will have to race from a mark 9lb higher tomorrow, his subsequent run at Wetherby, suggests he should be up to the task.
That was in a grade 2 event - and he would have won comfortably, if he’d not fallen at the final fence.
His 2 runs this season haven't been as good - but they haven’t been bad, either.
He’s been dropped a few pounds in the handicap for them - and back at a course that clearly suits him, he does look the one to beat.
Jersey Bean and Manofthemountain are the 2 other young improvers in the race and they can also both been given a chance. However, their cases don’t look quite as strong as that of Boldmere.
Give me a Copper is the most obvious of the older brigade - in part because he is very lightly raced.
He needs a decent surface to show his best - and he got that when winning last seasons Badger Beer chase at Wincanton, on his penultimate start.
He’s a horse that can run well fresh - so the fact he’s making his seasonal debut tomorrow is not a negative.
Significant rainfall however, would be…
As is often the case, arguments can be made for most of the other runners - if they bounce back to their best.
However, that can be a dangerous path to follow !
That said, if Skipthecuddles were to return in top form, he would be hard to beat.
He’s not seen a course for nearly 2 years - but his mark has dropped 9lb for the absence.
There is no doubt that he would have been very competitive off a mark of 130, in his prime -and as he’s still only 9, he shouldn’t be in terminal decline.
Lilly Pinchin takes off a useful 5lb - and he could be worth considering, at a likely big price.

Dec 11th - Bets/Staking Rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Cheltenham

12:40
Torcello 2 units win 40/1

1:50
Kalashnikov 12 units win 7/2
Fanion D'estruval 3 units win 9/2

3:00
Out Sam 6 units win 13/2
Beau de Brizais 2 units win 13/2
Defi des Carres 2 units win 16/1


Best Bets

1:50
Kalashnikov 1pt win 7/2 (MP 3/1)

3:00
Out Sam 0.5pt win 13/2 (MP 11/2)

  

There was 4mm of rain overnight, at Cheltenham - and a bit more is expected this morning.

My feeling is that the ground will end up close to ‘soft’ - but as always, we will only find out once it’s too late…

In truth, it won’t make much difference to either of the days Best bets - but soft ground would inconvenience quite a few of their rivals - so ideally, we want a bit more of the wet stuff to fall !

I’ve ended up suggesting bets in just 3 of the races:
I’ve put up a token Matrix bet in the 12:40 (because I would never forgive myself it won and I hadn’t): but the main action is in the Peterborough chase and the Cross country race.

I’ve got strong fancies for both - but they have both been well backed early - which is a pain !

There’s nothing much I can do about it - other than to tip earlier (which I maybe should have done, for Kalashnikov).

Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…


Cheltenham

I was never going to get involved with the opener - and not just because it’s off at 11:30 !
As I said in the preview, Butte Montana is interesting at a big price (and possibly even more interesting, now that he’s been backed).
That said, I like Make me a Believer, best - though I can resist an involvement at 5/2, with so much guesswork involved.

There would have been a temptation to get involved with the 12:05 - if the bookies had been playing ball.
Hold the Note is 4/1 on the exchanges - and I think that’s very fair. However, he’s 7/2 with the bookies - and that’s tight.
A saver on Fabulous Saga would also have been tempting - just in case he’s ready to do himself justice…

I did consider deploying the full Matrix on 12:40 - but I’ve resisted.
Tegerak, Sarasota Star and Bennys Bridge would have been 3 I wanted on side - but they are all priced at 8/1 or less.
At bigger prices, Lively Citizen, Nelson River and Torcello are also of interest.
The first 2 are priced about right - but there is definitely margin in the last named, at a dismissive 40/1.
I doubt I have could have constructed a Matrix that would have done much better than break even if any of the 5 shorter priced ones had won - so instead, I’ll just risk a couple of Matrix units on Torcello.

I would have liked to get involved with the mares chase (1:15) - but I just keep going round in circles…
Black Tulip and Nikap are the 2 of greatest interest - but Martillo isn’t far behind - and there is also Fally Jem…
More than that, I could easily have missed the winner altogether - so feel I can’t really get involved.

I’m very keen on Kalshnikov in the 1:50 - I just wish the price had held up.
That said, he has ticks in almost every box, whereas there is a question mark or two, against all of his rivals.
At 9/2, he may well have been a 2pt bet (certainly 1.5pt) - at 7/2, I’ve had to reign back to 1pt.
Assuming the ground is soft, then Fanion Destruval is by far the biggest danger - and he’s worth saving on for the Matrix.
If the ground isn’t as bad as I expect, then Mister Fisher would be a worry.
I’ll be surprised if one of the 3, doesn’t win…

I spent a bit longer looking at the 2:25, last night - just in case I’d missed an angle - but if I had, it still remains elusive !
Court Maid is the one to beat - but 6/4 is way too short, considering the doubts (quick turnaround, shorter trip, stronger race).
If forced to side with one, I’d go with Storm Control.
However, he would prefer decent ground - and the form of his last win, looks pretty weak.
In the circumstances, I can swerve the race…

The early market was wrong for the 3:00 - but it is gradually being knocked into shape.
Out Sam should be favourite - based on his last 2 runs at this course.
He’s also Sean Bowens only ride of the day (and I’m a big fan of his).
In truth, it’s not a race where you can be overly confident - because there are plenty of unknowns and a lot can go wrong.
Therefore I think it is worth saving for the Matrix, on Beau de Brizais and Defi des Carres.
The former should be able to reverse form with Kingswell Theatre: whilst the latter is a completely unknown quantity - but has an interesting profile.

The final race of the day looks a complete minefield.
It’s one of those race where beforehand, it looks like anything could win it; but afterwards, the result will be blindingly obvious.
If I could manage to find a bookie who took retrospective bets, I’d be a millionaire !
If forced off the fence, I’d go with Come on Teddy - but the price has gone.
Cotswold Way is possibly a bit of value at 12/1 - but it’s another race which I’m prepared to just watch….