Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
12:40
Torcello 2 units win 40/1
1:50
Kalashnikov 12 units win 7/2
Fanion D'estruval 3 units win 9/2
3:00
Out Sam 6 units win 13/2
Beau de Brizais 2 units win 13/2
Defi des Carres 2 units win 16/1
Best Bets
1:50
Kalashnikov 1pt win 7/2 (MP 3/1)
3:00
Out Sam 0.5pt win 13/2 (MP 11/2)
There was 4mm of rain overnight, at Cheltenham - and a bit
more is expected this morning.
My feeling is that the ground will end up close to ‘soft’ - but as always, we will only find out once it’s too late…
In truth, it won’t make much difference to either of the days Best bets - but soft ground would inconvenience quite a few of their rivals - so ideally, we want a bit more of the wet stuff to fall !
I’ve ended up suggesting bets in just 3 of the races:
I’ve put up a token Matrix bet in the 12:40 (because I would never forgive myself it won and I hadn’t): but the main action is in the Peterborough chase and the Cross country race.
I’ve got strong fancies for both - but they have both been well backed early - which is a pain !
There’s nothing much I can do about it - other than to tip earlier (which I maybe should have done, for Kalashnikov).
Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…
Cheltenham
I was never going to get involved with the opener - and not just because it’s off at 11:30 !
As I said in the preview, Butte Montana is interesting at a big price (and possibly even more interesting, now that he’s been backed).
That said, I like Make me a Believer, best - though I can resist an involvement at 5/2, with so much guesswork involved.
There would have been a temptation to get involved with the 12:05 - if the bookies had been playing ball.
Hold the Note is 4/1 on the exchanges - and I think that’s very fair. However, he’s 7/2 with the bookies - and that’s tight.
A saver on Fabulous Saga would also have been tempting - just in case he’s ready to do himself justice…
I did consider deploying the full Matrix on 12:40 - but I’ve resisted.
Tegerak, Sarasota Star and Bennys Bridge would have been 3 I wanted on side - but they are all priced at 8/1 or less.
At bigger prices, Lively Citizen, Nelson River and Torcello are also of interest.
The first 2 are priced about right - but there is definitely margin in the last named, at a dismissive 40/1.
I doubt I have could have constructed a Matrix that would have done much better than break even if any of the 5 shorter priced ones had won - so instead, I’ll just risk a couple of Matrix units on Torcello.
I would have liked to get involved with the mares chase (1:15) - but I just keep going round in circles…
Black Tulip and Nikap are the 2 of greatest interest - but Martillo isn’t far behind - and there is also Fally Jem…
More than that, I could easily have missed the winner altogether - so feel I can’t really get involved.
I’m very keen on Kalshnikov in the 1:50 - I just wish the price had held up.
That said, he has ticks in almost every box, whereas there is a question mark or two, against all of his rivals.
At 9/2, he may well have been a 2pt bet (certainly 1.5pt) - at 7/2, I’ve had to reign back to 1pt.
Assuming the ground is soft, then Fanion Destruval is by far the biggest danger - and he’s worth saving on for the Matrix.
If the ground isn’t as bad as I expect, then Mister Fisher would be a worry.
I’ll be surprised if one of the 3, doesn’t win…
I spent a bit longer looking at the 2:25, last night - just in case I’d missed an angle - but if I had, it still remains elusive !
Court Maid is the one to beat - but 6/4 is way too short, considering the doubts (quick turnaround, shorter trip, stronger race).
If forced to side with one, I’d go with Storm Control.
However, he would prefer decent ground - and the form of his last win, looks pretty weak.
In the circumstances, I can swerve the race…
The early market was wrong for the 3:00 - but it is gradually being knocked into shape.
Out Sam should be favourite - based on his last 2 runs at this course.
He’s also Sean Bowens only ride of the day (and I’m a big fan of his).
In truth, it’s not a race where you can be overly confident - because there are plenty of unknowns and a lot can go wrong.
Therefore I think it is worth saving for the Matrix, on Beau de Brizais and Defi des Carres.
The former should be able to reverse form with Kingswell Theatre: whilst the latter is a completely unknown quantity - but has an interesting profile.
The final race of the day looks a complete minefield.
It’s one of those race where beforehand, it looks like anything could win it; but afterwards, the result will be blindingly obvious.
If I could manage to find a bookie who took retrospective bets, I’d be a millionaire !
If forced off the fence, I’d go with Come on Teddy - but the price has gone.
Cotswold Way is possibly a bit of value at 12/1 - but it’s another race which I’m prepared to just watch….
My feeling is that the ground will end up close to ‘soft’ - but as always, we will only find out once it’s too late…
In truth, it won’t make much difference to either of the days Best bets - but soft ground would inconvenience quite a few of their rivals - so ideally, we want a bit more of the wet stuff to fall !
I’ve ended up suggesting bets in just 3 of the races:
I’ve put up a token Matrix bet in the 12:40 (because I would never forgive myself it won and I hadn’t): but the main action is in the Peterborough chase and the Cross country race.
I’ve got strong fancies for both - but they have both been well backed early - which is a pain !
There’s nothing much I can do about it - other than to tip earlier (which I maybe should have done, for Kalashnikov).
Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…
Cheltenham
I was never going to get involved with the opener - and not just because it’s off at 11:30 !
As I said in the preview, Butte Montana is interesting at a big price (and possibly even more interesting, now that he’s been backed).
That said, I like Make me a Believer, best - though I can resist an involvement at 5/2, with so much guesswork involved.
There would have been a temptation to get involved with the 12:05 - if the bookies had been playing ball.
Hold the Note is 4/1 on the exchanges - and I think that’s very fair. However, he’s 7/2 with the bookies - and that’s tight.
A saver on Fabulous Saga would also have been tempting - just in case he’s ready to do himself justice…
I did consider deploying the full Matrix on 12:40 - but I’ve resisted.
Tegerak, Sarasota Star and Bennys Bridge would have been 3 I wanted on side - but they are all priced at 8/1 or less.
At bigger prices, Lively Citizen, Nelson River and Torcello are also of interest.
The first 2 are priced about right - but there is definitely margin in the last named, at a dismissive 40/1.
I doubt I have could have constructed a Matrix that would have done much better than break even if any of the 5 shorter priced ones had won - so instead, I’ll just risk a couple of Matrix units on Torcello.
I would have liked to get involved with the mares chase (1:15) - but I just keep going round in circles…
Black Tulip and Nikap are the 2 of greatest interest - but Martillo isn’t far behind - and there is also Fally Jem…
More than that, I could easily have missed the winner altogether - so feel I can’t really get involved.
I’m very keen on Kalshnikov in the 1:50 - I just wish the price had held up.
That said, he has ticks in almost every box, whereas there is a question mark or two, against all of his rivals.
At 9/2, he may well have been a 2pt bet (certainly 1.5pt) - at 7/2, I’ve had to reign back to 1pt.
Assuming the ground is soft, then Fanion Destruval is by far the biggest danger - and he’s worth saving on for the Matrix.
If the ground isn’t as bad as I expect, then Mister Fisher would be a worry.
I’ll be surprised if one of the 3, doesn’t win…
I spent a bit longer looking at the 2:25, last night - just in case I’d missed an angle - but if I had, it still remains elusive !
Court Maid is the one to beat - but 6/4 is way too short, considering the doubts (quick turnaround, shorter trip, stronger race).
If forced to side with one, I’d go with Storm Control.
However, he would prefer decent ground - and the form of his last win, looks pretty weak.
In the circumstances, I can swerve the race…
The early market was wrong for the 3:00 - but it is gradually being knocked into shape.
Out Sam should be favourite - based on his last 2 runs at this course.
He’s also Sean Bowens only ride of the day (and I’m a big fan of his).
In truth, it’s not a race where you can be overly confident - because there are plenty of unknowns and a lot can go wrong.
Therefore I think it is worth saving for the Matrix, on Beau de Brizais and Defi des Carres.
The former should be able to reverse form with Kingswell Theatre: whilst the latter is a completely unknown quantity - but has an interesting profile.
The final race of the day looks a complete minefield.
It’s one of those race where beforehand, it looks like anything could win it; but afterwards, the result will be blindingly obvious.
If I could manage to find a bookie who took retrospective bets, I’d be a millionaire !
If forced off the fence, I’d go with Come on Teddy - but the price has gone.
Cotswold Way is possibly a bit of value at 12/1 - but it’s another race which I’m prepared to just watch….
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