Tomorrow is the first day of Cheltenham’s 2 day International meeting.
The action gets underway at 11:30 - which is the earliest start time I can recall at Cheltenham.
The reason is a bumper 8 race card - coupled with an early sunset.
That’s one race more than originally planned - and what a race it is !
The Peterborough chase - originally scheduled for Huntingdon on Sunday, has been transferred to Cheltenham tomorrow, following the abandonment of that meeting.
Huntingdon's loss, is very much Cheltenham’s gain.
In terms of the going, then it’s currently described as ‘good to soft’.
However, the dreaded weekend rain has arrived - with around 8mm expected before the start of racing.
If that materialises, then the ground is likely to be riding closer to soft.
Just a reminder that I’ll issue any suggested bets after 10:00 in the morning.
It may be a bit later than 10:00 - depending on how confident I am that I've got a good handle on the weather situation.
That said, it will definitely be before 11:00 (and probably not much later than 10:30).
Cheltenham
11:30
The meeting opens with a relatively uninspiring novice hurdle.
It’s impossible to get a proper handle on the runners, so it’s not a race for heavy financial involvement.
Any News has been installed favourite on the back of a victory in a 4 runner race at Bangor.
He was a comfortable winner that day - and also on his sole bumper outing last season.
He was due to run in last Fridays Grade 2 winter novice hurdle at Sandown, which suggests that he is highly thought of.
Whether that is justified, time alone will tell…
Make me a Believer hasn’t run since October, when he was runner up to Bear Ghylls at Lingfield. That one has subsequently won again and is now rated 129.
Make me a Believer has undergone wind surgery since that run - and retains plenty of scope for improvement.
Butte Montana is of interest, primarily because he is running in the race !
He’s clearly well thought of, as he was sent off fav on his debut, when runner up in a 15 runner bumper at last seasons Cheltenham October meeting.
He then ran in a particularly strong bumper at Ascot, just before Christmas - but finished well beaten.
It was a similar story when he made his hurdling debut at Aintree, in October.
Clearly he will need to improve massively on his last 2 runs - but the way he is being campaigned - and his debut effort - suggest he has plenty of ability, if connections can find a way to unlock it.
12:05
Despite there only being 5 runners, this is a tight little race - and any result is possible.
The official handicapper makes Hold the Note the most likely winner.
He’s the highest rated horse in the race - and yet receives weight from all bar one of his rivals.
He’s not shown his best form in 2 runs this season - but there was more promise last time, than there was on his first run - and the application of a first time visor, is an interesting move.
Happygolucky is the second highest rated horse in the race - but he has to give weight to a couple of his rivals.
However, he is relatively unexposed and he has plenty of scope for improvement.
He also has a good attitude and is unlikely to go down without a fight.
Fabulous Saga has his first run over fences - and his first for Paul Nicholls, having been off the track for over 3 years.
He was very useful in his novice hurdling days - and managed to give 8lb and a 4 length beating to the now 170 rated, Delta Work !
Back to his best, he could potentially outclass his rivals - though he was considered to want very soft ground, when he was trained in Ireland.
It’s a bit harder to make a case for either L’air du vent or The Mighty Don - though the former has scope for improvement and did put up a fair performance when winning last time at Exeter.
12:40
This looks a very open race - though it’s no surprise to see Tegerek installed the early favourite.
He was an impressive winner at the Cheltenham October meeting - and followed that up by running third in the Greatwood hurdle at the November meeting.
That’s top class handicap hurdle form - and whilst he has been raised 3lb for his most recent effort, a mark of 135 probably isn’t beyond him (particularly with Kevin Brogan in the saddle, claiming 7lb).
Bennys Bridge finished sixth to Tegereck in the October race.
He will be a stone better off at the weights, tomorrow - but has a 22 length gap to close.
In theory, it should be quite close between the pair - though only time will tell if that’s how it works out…
Saratosa Star was a game winner of a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at Carlisle, last month.
He’s been raised 5lb for that win - but because it was in a conditional riders race, he gets no penalty for tomorrows race.
The form will need to be improved on - but he’s only a 4 year old, with just 6 previous outings over hurdles.
Lively Citizen was a game winner of a novice handicap hurdle at the November meeting, when he just got the batter of One True King.
On a line through that one, he is quite closely matched with Tegerek.
That was only his fourth run over hurdles, so he’s another with plenty of scope for improvement.
Whilst a 4lb weight rise seems pretty lenient - particularly considering the runner up has subsequently franked the form.
Nelson River sits at the top of the handicap - and possibly still rated a little high, on a mark of 136.
However, he ran well last time at Ascot - and also has decent course form.
I could certainly see him outrunning his odds and maybe getting a place - even if winning might prove just beyond him.
Torcello is the final one on the short list.
He has little chance based on his 2 hurdle runs of last season - though it is interesting that they were both in top class handicaps.
He performed with great credit on his belated return to the flat, at Newbury in October - before running unplaced in the November handicap.
He is likely to be overlooked in the betting - but he has a chance…
1:15
The race won by Arian at Warwick last month, may provide the key to this particualr contest.
She beaten Nikap by a comfortable 2 lengths that day - with Martillo just behind in third.
However, the runner up re-opposes on 5lb better terns tomorrow; whilst the third placed horse is 6lb better off.
It’s tough to choose between the 3 of them.
However, Arian has to carry 12st3lb - whilst Nikap has a 7lb claimer in the saddle.
That could tip the balance in favour of Nikap - who is also 2 years younger.
In truth, it’s a race where it’s hard to feel confident, as most of the runners can be given a chance.
Black Tulip was subject to an aggressive ride when winning last time at Uttoxeter - and if the same thing happens tomorrow, she may well enjoy the run of the race.
With her stamina assured, she could prove hard to catch - and her handicap mark certainly doesn’t look beyond her.
She finished second in the corresponding race 2 years ago, when running from a mark 4lb higher…
Fally Jem is the ‘dark’ horse in the field.
She ran just once for Venetia last year - when tailed off over hurdles at Hereford.
She has no chance based on that run - but has been dropped 12lb; had a wind op and now runs over fences.
It wouldn’t be the greatest surprise, if she put in a much improved effort…
1:50
The Peterborough chase has been transferred from Sundays abandoned card at Huntingdon - and thankfully, most of the main players have stood their ground.
The exception is Al Dancer, who will be running in the Caspian Caviar Gold cup instead; On the flip side however, Kalashnikov wasn’t declared for Sundays race - but he looks to have a good chance tomorrow.
I wouldn’t have fancied him if the race had been run at Huntingdon - but Cheltenham should play far more to his strengths and he ran well on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Haydock, last month.
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race, behind Dolos - but I would expect the test to suit him much better than the top rated.
He looks the one to beat.
That said there are a few in the race with potential for improvement, with Mister Fisher and Fanion Destruval, chief amongst them
The former could be a fair bit better than his current mark of 155 - though he does have a strong preference for decent ground.
If he gets it, I would expect him to be well backed - and I would also expect him to go close.
There is a slight concern over the trip, for Fanion Destruval, as all his runs in this country have been over 2 miles.
However, he was staying on strongly last time, when beaten by Magic Saint, so I doubt he’ll struggle with it - and may even improve for the extra yardage.
Glen Forsa looks the best of those at big prices.
He was well beaten when he fell on his seasonal debut at Exeter - but he’s better than that.
12 months earlier, he had finished close behind Kalashnikov at Newbury - and if he can recapture that level of form, he would be capable of placing.
2:25
This is the kind of race that I usually love to unpick - but I’m struggling a bit…
It’s probably not helped by the fact that the favourite, Court Maid, is hard to assess.
She was a very easy winner of a valuable race at Punchestown 12 days ago - and gets in tomorrow, with a 5lb penalty.
That isn’t a particular worry - but the fact she is dropping 5 furlongs in distance and taking on batter class opposition, is.
She may be up to the job - but I’d not be keen on taking 2/1 to find out…
The trouble is, there’s nothing in the race that I really fancy opposing her with.
Black Corton is the obvious one - back up in trip having been run off his feet (literally !) in a grade 2 at Ascot, last time.
The fitting of cheekpieces is an interesting move - and whilst he is undoubtedly the class horse in the race, there is little room for manoeuvre in his current handicap mark.
Storm Control won well over course and distance last time - and a 6lb rise isn’t overly harsh.
However, this is a much better class of race -and the presence of Commodore means he won’t get an uncontested lead (which is what happened when he won).
Commodore ran really well last time, on his seasonal debut at Haydock.
However, he is inconsistent - and may not get the soft ground that he relishes.
He also had a very hard race; has been raised 5lb - and will have Storm Control harrying him for the lead !
Potters Legend won a veterans race last time - but will find it harder tomorrow off a 5lb higher mark in a stronger race; whilst Steely Addition is badly out of form - and West Approach has a general preference, not to win !
Tricky..!
3:00
The defection of Easysland has given this race a very different complexion to the one expected - but it’s probably better for it…
He was sent off an odds on favourite for the cross country race at the November meeting - but failed to fire that day, enabling Kingswell Theatre to make all.
It was a good performance by the winner - and his second victory over a course which clearly brings out the best in him.
That said, he will have his work cut out to confirm the form with Beau de Brizais.
He finished runner up in the race - beaten 5 lengths - and re-opposes tomorrow on 5lb better terms.
It was his first attempt at the cross country course - and he took to it well.
He must have a good chance of reversing the form.
Vivas also ran in the race and has arguably got an even better chance of beating Kingswell Theatre.
It was also his first attempt at the cross country course - and he was ultimately beaten 14 lengths. However he had every chance until the final fence and is 10lb better off tomorrow.
His stamina is a concern - but at very least, he should make a good pre-race back to lay IR.
Out Sam finished third in this race last year - and occupied the same position in the Glenfarcas chase at the festival.
On that form, he holds Neverushacon and Kingswell Theatre.
He ran a fair race in the Cork National, last time (when I made him a Best bet) - and it’s interesting that Gordon Elliott has brought him back over.
Step Back has re-found his form recently, and whilst this will be his cross country debut, I could see him taking to the course.
That said, he isn’t the biggest of horses - and will have to carry a lot of weight.
He also shouldn’t beat Beau de Brizais, on their run at Wincanton, in October…
Defi de Carres is the final one of interest.
He will be making his debut for Charlie Mann - but has some decent cross country form to his name, in his native France.
He’s only 7 and looks to have been bought with these races in mind.
It’s guesswork as to whether he will be fit enough to do himself justice tomorrow - but if he is well backed, I would advise keeping him on side…
3:35
The final race on the card looks tough to solve.
Unowhatimeanharry and On the Blind Side head the weights - and they both bounced back to form last time, with good wins.
They have been raised in the weights - but would have been able to defy their new ratings, when at their peaks.
On the Blind Side is still only 8, so there is no reason to think he is in decline: and whilst Unohatimeanharry will be a teenager in a couple of weeks time, the way he won last time at Aintree, suggested he should have every chance tomorrow off a mark just 3lb higher.
Come on Teddy sits at the other end of the weights - and the other end of the age range.
He will be receiving 24lb from Unowhatimeanharry - as well as 6 years !
He ran a nice race on his return to action at Uttoxeter last time, when he probably needed the outing.
He’s been dropped a pound - but more importantly, its likely to be fair bit sharper tomorrow.
Goodbye Dancer comfortably won this race 12 months ago - and runs from a mark a pound lower tomorrow.
He would have gone close to winning his next race as well - but fell at the final flight and has shown nothing in 5 subsequent runs.
The fear is that he injured himself in the fall - but he’s clearly handicapped to go very close, if he is fit and well.
Cotswold Way is the final one of interest.
He travelled nicely last time at Kempton - and should appreciate the step back up in trip.
He’s potentially well handicapped, if everything does drop right for him - and is still only 7, so capable of further improvement.
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