Review of the weekend - Dec 4th-6th

 I always dread it when it rains just before the weekend (even more so, during it !), as it’s very hard to gauge the impact on the ground. 

That said, if sufficient rain falls, then it’s not so much of an issue.

There was plenty of rain at the back end of last week - and I felt sure it would result in very heavy conditions.
Alas, that’s not quite how it turned out…


Friday

The weekend began with a couple of decent cards, at Sandown and Exeter.

Judging conditions at both courses wasn’t easy.
However an official description of ‘heavy’ at Exeter gave me some confidence there; whilst ‘soft’ felt instinctively about right for Sandown.

Armed with this ‘knowledge’ I issued a Best bet at both meetings: at Exeter, I went for a mud lark; whilst at Sandown, I went for one who didn’t have a known going preference…

However, not for the first time (or I dare say, the last !), my judgement of the going, was wrong - at least at Exeter…

I opted for Petite Power in the Devon National, in the expectation that the race would become a war.
If it was a case of ’last man standing’, then I was pretty sure he would be the last man !

However, that wasn’t how it turned out.
The ground was soft - but it wasn’t desperate - and he just couldn’t go the pace.

It didn’t help that 4 fences were removed due to low sun, meaning that only 13 were jumped (instead of 21).

It just wasn’t the race I anticipated - as is shown by the fact that 8 of the 11 runners completed - and the first 4 home were separated by just a length !

It’s an impossible situation to legislate for.
I either have to take a risk on the ground conditions - or pull the plug whenever it rains !
If I were to do that, then the British winter would see us having very few days when there was action !

Things were made slightly worse by the fact that I also covered Some Detail for the Matrix.
Again, I expected him to be staying on late - but his boundless stamina was not required…

The only other Best bet on he day, was Emmpressive Lady.

She didn’t have such exacting ground requirements - but she was risky because her form was hard to assess.

She was the overnight race fav - and as I wanted a bit of a price (to compensate for the risk), I didn’t think I’d be able to put her up.
However, by 10:00 in the morning, she had drifted to 9/2, which was quite acceptable.

She drifted a little more prior to the off - which was surprising,.
My guess is that it was down to her relatively low key connections (up against a number of higher profile trainers).

Whatever, it didn’t stop her from running her race.
She travelled beautifully throughout - and turning in, it simply looked a question of how far she would win by.

However, she then came under pressure - and victory didn’t look quite so certain !
But she clearly has resolution as well as ability - and she put her head down and battled for a deserved victory.

A nice way to start the weekend for the Best bets.

In truth, it was the least they should have had out of the day:

I had ear-marked both Bold Plan and Darebin as additional Best bets - but the price just wouldn't fall in to line for the former (7/2 was too short with the bookmakers  even though he was 9/2 on Betfair); whilst a host of non runners meant Darebin was running in a different race to the one I’d assessed - and he was a much shorter price.
Both of them managed to win - which was a little frustrating - but is often how it pans out…

It was doubly annoying that I didn’t manage to even cover them on the Matrix.
I don’t really want to be risking units on horses that I think are under-priced - but it still doesn't feel quite right when they win and there is absolutely no reward…

There was also no reward for any of the additional Matrix bets that I did put up on the day.

In the opener at Sandown, I was pretty sure that I had the race in a pincer like grip, with 3 of the 7 runners covered
I was 90% sure I’d be on the winner - so it was bit of a jolt when I didn’t get one in the first 4 !
That must be some kind of (unwanted) record !

Dusky Lark and Farrants Way were the 2 other Matrix bets on the afternoon.
Both were value based calls - and both ran pretty well..

Dusy Lark was a tad fortunate to finish second at Exeter, to the very impressive Severano - but he was running on well at the end, considering his long absence from the track.
Provided he doesn’t bounce, he would have to be of interest next time.

Farrants Way was backed into joint favouritism at Sandown - but could only finish third.
That said, it was another good effort - particularly bearing in mind his inexperience.

It seemed a little ironic that the race was won by Portrush Ted.
I put him up as an Weekend ante-post bet in the forum, for a race at Haydock a fortnight ago.
He missed that contest due to injury - and made me pay for not keeping faith, with a gutsy victory.


Saturday

Having been stung by ground conditions on Friday, I was keen to avoid a repeat on Saturday - at least at Sandown - but that's not how it worked out..!

I ended up with 4 Best bets on the day: 1 at Sandown; 1 at Chepstow - and 2 over the big fences at Aintree…

Le Breuil was the first of them to run.

I was keen to get him onside - in part because I could see weaknesses in all of the other market leaders.
However, he was quickly backed into favouritism - and it didn’t help that the bookmakers again refused to push out his price to match that available on he exchanges.

I eventually decided to take the plunge regardless - and for much of the race, it looked a good call.
He was trading close to even money, around half way - as he was travelling beautifully, whilst a number of his rivals were coming unstuck.

However, he then got the fourth last all wrong - and that was effectively that.
He did rally to an extent - but Vieux Lion Rouge had hit full stride by then and was not for catching.

I was a little annoyed that I’d not covered the winner via the Matrix, as I felt he had a chance and was over-priced.
I was put off by the fact that Tom Scudamore had chosen to ride Ramses de Teille ahead of him - but that was a bit silly.

Instead I saved on Coo Star Sivola for the Matrix - but he unseated at the 6th fence.

I think the my personal report on the race would have read ‘could/should have done better’…

Whilst I’ll take some responsibility for getting that race wrong, there was a different reason for the demise of the next 2 Best bets…

As with Exeter on Friday, the ground at Chepstow was described as ‘heavy’ - but it wasn’t !
I could maybe believe ‘soft’ - but there is a big difference between soft ground at Chepstow and heavy ground at Chepstow.

Yalltari wants heavy - so it wasn’t too surprising that he was outpaced up the home straight.
He’s a plodder - pure and simple - and plodders are in their element when the ground is borderline unraceable.

I expected that to be the case at Chepstow - but it wasn’t, and in the circumstances he did quite well to finish fourth.

Even more surprising was that the same thing happened with the next Best Bet, Regal Flow.

The real surprise here was that he was running at Sandown - where I’d been able to assess the ground the day before.
However, to my eyes it had quickened up dramatically (on the chase course) in the intervening 24 hours.

I’ve no idea why (I don't know when exactly the rain fell) - but the times backed it up. The ground at Sandown on Saturday (on the chase course) was soft at worse (probably good to soft).

Again, that was no good for a mudlark like Regal Flow - and as with Yalltari, he was outpaced and did well to finish third (behind a horse with a preference for decent ground !).

The P&L will tell you that Yalltari and Regal Flow were poor tips - but they weren’t. Conditions were not as I expected - it was as simple as that…

As a consequence, that just left one Best bet to try and save the day: Beau Bay.

He had no specific ground requirement - it was just a question of whether he would be good enough to win.
At 25/1, the betting was pretty dismissive - and whilst I can’t say I felt he was the best tip I’ve ever issued, I did feel that he had a fair chance - and that the odds on offer were far too big.

In truth, whilst he jumped and travelled OK, throughout the race, he never particularly looked like winning.
Whilst he seemed to be running as fast as he could, many of his rivals appeared to be cruising.

He made no significant errors - but wasn’t that slick over any of his fences.

Turning in, it looked likely that he would finish mid-field.
However, one by one, his rivals came off the bridle and started to struggle, whilst he just kept on running.

Jumping the last it became clear that he was likely to place: and at the elbow it became equally clear that he was likely to win !

I honestly couldn’t believe it, as he bounded away up the run in.
A 5 length victory didn’t flatter him - even if it had looked highly unlikely, half a mile from home.

It just goes to show: Never give up - and you may eventually get your rewards.

Well done Beau Bay - another name to add to the list of TVB legends :)

There were a few additional bets for the Matrix.
Lamanvar Pippin and Saint Xavier failed to provide consolation for Yalltari at Chepstow: whilst Ballymoy ran very disappointingly in the handicap hurdle at Aintree (it looked as if he wasn’t quite right).
However, Benson did manage to win the last at Sandown for the Matrix - which was something.

That said, It really should have been something better...
I originally had him ear-marked as a Best Bet - but then cooled on him as I identified a strong case for Jollys Cracked it,
I should have kept him as Best bet and covered Jollys in Matrix - but I didn’t.
It brought me back down to earth with a bit of a bump (you tend not to fly high for very long, in this game).

All this said, it was still a very good day.

The first 3 weeks of the season were a struggle: but Ramses and Bristol started things moving in the right direction: Cap du Nord and Cloth Cap provided significant momentum last weekend - and after Emppresive Lady yesterday, Beau Bay really put the icing on the cake.

It just might be time to kick on !

TVB