Despite the official description being changed to ‘soft - good to soft in places’ the ground at Cheltenham this afternoon, wasn’t quite as soft as I expected..!
It probably cost Kalashnikov (or more accurately, greatly improved the chance of Mister Fisher); whilst Out Sam couldn’t go the pace in the cross country race.
As I said in yesterdays preview, it’s impossible to know until it’s too late - plus, we are also talking relatively small differences.
Anyway, with no rain forecast prior to racing, at least I know what to expect tomorrow !
That said, finding winners still won’t be easy - it never is at Cheltenham.
In addition to Cheltenham, there is also televised racing from Doncaster.
The ground there today, was riding similar to that at Cheltenham - however, there is further rain forecast for tomorrow…
As a reminder, I will look to issue any suggested bets, tomorrow morning, after 9:00.
Cheltenham
12:05
The card opens with a juvenile hurdle - and it doesn’t look the strongest such event, ever to be run.
Adagio heads the betting after his creditable second to Duffle Coat at the November meeting.
He looked to have the race won that day, until he was chased down by the strong finishing winner.
If he can run to the same level of form tomorrow, he will be hard to beat.
Son of Red and Elham Valley have both won their sole hurdles starts.
Son of Red just got up at Newcastle; whilst Elham Valley was a visually more impressive winner, at Sandown.
However, that race was only a week ago - and in heavy ground. I’d be a little concerned about him being turned out again, so quickly.
The pair of them also have to concede weight to all of their rivals - and that’s a big ask.
Potentially more interesting, are Shake a Leg and Simply True.
They will both be making their debuts over hurdles - but both showed reasonable form on the flat in Ireland, and come from yards, quite capable of readying a juvenile to score first time out.
If either gets to a big price, they could be worth a small risk - accepting that there s a lot of guesswork involved…
12:40
There may be only 4 runners - but this still looks an interesting contest.
Chantry House has been installed favourite - but that’s because he has the most potential.
He finished third to Shiskin in last years Supreme hurdle - and began his chasing career with a good win at Ascot.
The sky is still the limit for him - which is why he is such a short price.
Interestingly, he is rated 8lb inferior to Quel Destin over hurdles - but has to give him 5lb tomorrow.
Quel Destin himself has only run once over fences - when runner up to Eldorado Allen at the November meeting.
That wasn’t a bad debut effort - and he should appreciate the step up to 2m4f.
He could well be the value option in the race.
The final one of interest, is Fusil Raffles.
He finished behind Quel Destin, last time - and has to concede him 8lb.
According to the book, he has no chance - but he will appreciate better ground (assuming he gets it !) and also the longer trip…
1:15
This is an interesting looking race, which I would be quite hopeful of solving…
Ibleo has been installed favourite - and on soft ground, I would look no further for the winner. However, I don’t think he’ll be as effective on a quicker surface…
The issue is judging how much his performance will be effected by the quicker ground - and it’s virtually impossible to work out.
For the time being, he has to be on the short list.
Sky Pirate is also on the short list.
He’s very unusual, in that he’s run 16 times under rules previously, but this will be the first time he’s tried the minimum trip.
Generally, horses step up in trip as their career progress - not down !
However, it’s an understandable move, as he’s a strong traveller - who doesn’t always see out his races.
That was the case in the Paddy Power gold cup last time, when he looked likely to go very close jumping the last - but ultimately finished only fifth.
If he has the speed to handle the drop in trip, then he is handicapped to go very close.
Most of the others look like they have little in hand of the handicapper.
That’s certainly true of the Paul Nicholls pair - Magic Saint and Capeland.
I would expect them both to run well - but neither should really win…
Zanza is the potential improver - but the race fell apart for him at Newbury last time - and he is 7lb higher tomorrow.
Forest Bihan is of some interest at a big price.
He has little in hand of his mark - and fell last time over hurdles. However, he should be well suited to tomorrows test - assuming he is 100%.
1:50
It was a bit disappointing to see Musical Slave just miss the cut for the big race - as I quite liked his chances. If anyone did back him, you should get your money back (as he was balloted out)
As a result the ante-post position relies on Coole Cody - and he has a chance and is still a fair bet at around 10/1.
That said, this is a very open race…
Al Dancer probably just about deserves to be favourite, on the back of his third to Coole Cody in the Paddy Power.
He meets in the winner on 6lb better terms for 4 lengths - and there should be little between them.
Cepage definitely has a chance - running off a mark just 1lb higher than when successful over course and distance in January.
He also runs well fresh - and it’s not hard to see him being placed, at very least.
My big field concerns with Master Tommytucker, remain - whilst I doubt the ground will be soft enough for Windsor Avenue.
Midnight Shadow is a previous course and distance winner - and he definitely has a chance.
He finished sixth in the Marsh chase at the festival - and the 2 horses immediately in front of him: Tornado Flyer and Mister Fisher, have really franked the form in the past week.
He was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Aintree - but if he has come on for that run, he should run a really big race.
Chatham Street Lad and Champagne Mystery are 2 potential wild cards.
It’s hard to construct a concrete case for either - but I suspect they could both have big runs in them.
The last named in particular, is likely to give it a real go from the front and could be a decent pre-race back to lay IR.
2:25
The victory of Come on Teddy in the last at Cheltenham today, was a big boost for the chance of Ashtown Lad in this.
Ashtown Lad beat him out of sight at Uttoxeter last month - and whilst it’s a big step up from handicap company to Grade 2 level, Ashtown Lad may well be able to handle it.
That said, he has half a length to make up on Ask a Honey Bee, from when the pair clashed at Wetherby in October.
It’s going to come down to which one has made the greater subsequent improvement - though I don’t see it as a positive, that Paddy Brennan has opted to go to Doncaster, rather than ride him.
As a consequence, 3lb claimer Connor Brace takes the ride - even though he can’t claim his 3lb…
On official ratings, Make Good is the best horse in the race - and it’s interesting that John McConnel has sent him over from Ireland.
McConnel has a very good strike rate with his limited raids on Cheltenham - whilst Richard Johnson is an eye catching jockey booking.
Most of the others can be given a chance of sorts, so it’s not an easy race to feel confident about…
3:00
Conditions hurdles are often disappointing, small field affairs - but not this one !
This is an absolute cracker - as fascinating, as it’s tricky to solve…
Goshen has been made favourite, on his first run over hurdles, since an incredibly unlucky capitulation at the final flight in the Triumph hurdle.
In all the years I’ve watched racing, I’ve never seen such a bizarre fall (his back hoof got caught on his front one, as he was jumping the hurdle) - and it would be hard to begrudge him victory, if he wins tomorrow.
Whether he will win however, is a completely different matter.
In truth, it’s hard to be dogmatic, either way…
Tomorrow will see his first run in open company - and whilst the opposition aren’t world beaters, most of them are pretty useful.
Summerville Boy might prove to be an issue for Goshen, as down in trip, he is likely to try to force the pace.
Stormy Island also likes to get on with things - so one way or another, Goshen is unlikely to get his own way of things up front.
A strong pace on decent ground, should play into the hands of both Silver Streak and Verdana Blue.
They met at Kempton in October when despite being sent off a very short priced favourite, Verdana Blue was no match for Silver Streak.
That was a disappointing run from Verdana Blue - and whilst she did a bit better on her next start at Wetherby, she still lost a race that she should have won.
Maybe she’s not quite the horse she was - or maybe something hasn’t been quite right with her.
We should learn more tomorrow…
Song for Someone is on a steep upward curve - and on current form, is probably the one to beat.
That said, it will take a career best if he is to win.
3:35
Dan Skelton runs 2 in this - and whilst a chance can be given to Molly Ollies Wishes, it looks significant, that brother Harry rides Aggy With it.
She will be making her handicap debut, after a series of runs in novice events.
She seems to be improving with racing, having won her 2 most recent starts.
Prior to the first of her wins, she split Perfect Myth and Mrs Hyde.
That’s good form and suggests she is competitively handicapped off a mark of 127.
There is also likely to be improvement in her - and I can certainly see her running well (and also being very well backed !)
The White Mouse beat Perfect Myth at Wincanton last month.
That was her first run for 18 months - but she was clearly ready for it.
She’s been raised 8lb for her efforts - but provided she is in similar form, I would expect her to put in another good performance.
Miah Grace was unlucky to run into a very well handicapped rival last time in the shape of Mario de Pail .
She was only beaten half a length - and it was 14 lengths back to the third.
In the circumstances, a 4lb weight rise, is probably fair…
By contrast, Indefatigable looks too high in the handicap on a mark of 151; whilst I also suspect that Eglatine de Seuil is running, with a view to getting a few pounds off her mark (though she arguably, isn’t too badly handicapped).
The Bay Birch is potentially very well handicapped, with a rating 20lb below her last winning mark !
However, that was over fences - and whilst she has shown a bit of promise in some of her recent runs, it’s hard to anticipate what’s expected tomorrow.
As always, the market is likely to guide - if she is subject to any late support, take note !
Doncaster
2:05
It’s interesting to see Paddy Brennan at Doncaster, when he could presumably have taken some decent rides at Cheltenham.
Either the ones that Fergal is sending to Cheltenham aren’t as good as they appear - or one of his runners at Doncaster is well fancied…
If it’s the latter case, then it may well be Hurricane Harvey in this (or Alexander James, in the opener !).
He was a decent novice hurdler last season - and the form of his final run, when third to McFabulous and Severano at Sandown, now looks particularly strong.
He beat Emitom on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter - before getting outpaced by GA Law at Wincanton.
There was no shame in that - and I can see him being well suited by the step up in trip tomorrow.
Offalltheginjoints was a good winner at Exeter last time - and as a result of that, is the highest rated horse in the field.
However, it’s not easy to get a proper handle on that form - and his previous third place behind Acey Milan at Aintree, was nothing special.
He may be well thought of, but it’s hard to justify the odds discrepancy between him and Hurricane Harvey.
House Island can also also be given a chance, after his workmanlike victory at Ludlow.
Like Hurricane Harvey, he should benefit from a step up in trip.
Even the outsider, Milanford, can’t be dismissed.
He’s only run once under rules - when runner up to L’air du Vent at Exeter.
The winner didn’t frank that form today - but I wouldn’t be too inclined to hold that against Milanford.
2:40
This is a pretty uninspiring race - particularly considering there is a £28K first prize !
Monmiral sets the standard on the back of his easy win at Exeter, on his UK debut.
He also won his only start in France - and clearly is a useful animal.
How good exactly, is impossible to gauge - but Paul Nicholls will have a good feel for that - and the fact he represents him in this race, suggests he is very much the one to beat.
It’s quite interesting, that Gordon Elliott sends over Glorious Zoff.
He has little to find with Monmiral on official ratings - though was very disappointing last time, when beaten at Sedgefield.
If that run can be ignored, then he could be capable of giving the favourite a race.
There are no obvious angles for any of the 3 outsiders - though it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if one of them was to run well.
That said, the race holds minimal appeal as a betting medium…
3:15
This race can be split in 2: with 3 young potential improvers, taking on 7 older, horses, who are all likely to be on the downgrade (to a greater or lesser extent).
Maybe unsurprisingly, the betting favours the ‘young guns’ and they head of the market.
Boldmere has been installed favourite - returning to the scene of his last win.
That was in a fair handicap last December - and whilst he will have to race from a mark 9lb higher tomorrow, his subsequent run at Wetherby, suggests he should be up to the task.
That was in a grade 2 event - and he would have won comfortably, if he’d not fallen at the final fence.
His 2 runs this season haven't been as good - but they haven’t been bad, either.
He’s been dropped a few pounds in the handicap for them - and back at a course that clearly suits him, he does look the one to beat.
Jersey Bean and Manofthemountain are the 2 other young improvers in the race and they can also both been given a chance. However, their cases don’t look quite as strong as that of Boldmere.
Give me a Copper is the most obvious of the older brigade - in part because he is very lightly raced.
He needs a decent surface to show his best - and he got that when winning last seasons Badger Beer chase at Wincanton, on his penultimate start.
He’s a horse that can run well fresh - so the fact he’s making his seasonal debut tomorrow is not a negative.
Significant rainfall however, would be…
As is often the case, arguments can be made for most of the other runners - if they bounce back to their best.
However, that can be a dangerous path to follow !
That said, if Skipthecuddles were to return in top form, he would be hard to beat.
He’s not seen a course for nearly 2 years - but his mark has dropped 9lb for the absence.
There is no doubt that he would have been very competitive off a mark of 130, in his prime -and as he’s still only 9, he shouldn’t be in terminal decline.
Lilly Pinchin takes off a useful 5lb - and he could be worth considering, at a likely big price.
2:05
It’s interesting to see Paddy Brennan at Doncaster, when he could presumably have taken some decent rides at Cheltenham.
Either the ones that Fergal is sending to Cheltenham aren’t as good as they appear - or one of his runners at Doncaster is well fancied…
If it’s the latter case, then it may well be Hurricane Harvey in this (or Alexander James, in the opener !).
He was a decent novice hurdler last season - and the form of his final run, when third to McFabulous and Severano at Sandown, now looks particularly strong.
He beat Emitom on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter - before getting outpaced by GA Law at Wincanton.
There was no shame in that - and I can see him being well suited by the step up in trip tomorrow.
Offalltheginjoints was a good winner at Exeter last time - and as a result of that, is the highest rated horse in the field.
However, it’s not easy to get a proper handle on that form - and his previous third place behind Acey Milan at Aintree, was nothing special.
He may be well thought of, but it’s hard to justify the odds discrepancy between him and Hurricane Harvey.
House Island can also also be given a chance, after his workmanlike victory at Ludlow.
Like Hurricane Harvey, he should benefit from a step up in trip.
Even the outsider, Milanford, can’t be dismissed.
He’s only run once under rules - when runner up to L’air du Vent at Exeter.
The winner didn’t frank that form today - but I wouldn’t be too inclined to hold that against Milanford.
2:40
This is a pretty uninspiring race - particularly considering there is a £28K first prize !
Monmiral sets the standard on the back of his easy win at Exeter, on his UK debut.
He also won his only start in France - and clearly is a useful animal.
How good exactly, is impossible to gauge - but Paul Nicholls will have a good feel for that - and the fact he represents him in this race, suggests he is very much the one to beat.
It’s quite interesting, that Gordon Elliott sends over Glorious Zoff.
He has little to find with Monmiral on official ratings - though was very disappointing last time, when beaten at Sedgefield.
If that run can be ignored, then he could be capable of giving the favourite a race.
There are no obvious angles for any of the 3 outsiders - though it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if one of them was to run well.
That said, the race holds minimal appeal as a betting medium…
3:15
This race can be split in 2: with 3 young potential improvers, taking on 7 older, horses, who are all likely to be on the downgrade (to a greater or lesser extent).
Maybe unsurprisingly, the betting favours the ‘young guns’ and they head of the market.
Boldmere has been installed favourite - returning to the scene of his last win.
That was in a fair handicap last December - and whilst he will have to race from a mark 9lb higher tomorrow, his subsequent run at Wetherby, suggests he should be up to the task.
That was in a grade 2 event - and he would have won comfortably, if he’d not fallen at the final fence.
His 2 runs this season haven't been as good - but they haven’t been bad, either.
He’s been dropped a few pounds in the handicap for them - and back at a course that clearly suits him, he does look the one to beat.
Jersey Bean and Manofthemountain are the 2 other young improvers in the race and they can also both been given a chance. However, their cases don’t look quite as strong as that of Boldmere.
Give me a Copper is the most obvious of the older brigade - in part because he is very lightly raced.
He needs a decent surface to show his best - and he got that when winning last seasons Badger Beer chase at Wincanton, on his penultimate start.
He’s a horse that can run well fresh - so the fact he’s making his seasonal debut tomorrow is not a negative.
Significant rainfall however, would be…
As is often the case, arguments can be made for most of the other runners - if they bounce back to their best.
However, that can be a dangerous path to follow !
That said, if Skipthecuddles were to return in top form, he would be hard to beat.
He’s not seen a course for nearly 2 years - but his mark has dropped 9lb for the absence.
There is no doubt that he would have been very competitive off a mark of 130, in his prime -and as he’s still only 9, he shouldn’t be in terminal decline.
Lilly Pinchin takes off a useful 5lb - and he could be worth considering, at a likely big price.
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