Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
1:15
Born Survivor 5 units win 18/1
Sky Pirate 2 units win 7/2
1:50
Midnight Shadow 5 units win 11/1
3:00
Verdana Blue 3 units win 14/1
Silver Streak 3 units win 8/1
Doncaster
2:05
Hurricane Harvey 5 units win 3/1
3:15
Skipthecuddles 2 units win 25/1
Best bets
Cheltenham
1:15
Born Survivor 0.5pt win 18/1
1:50
Midnight Shadow 0.5pt win 11/1 (FP 12/1)
Doncaster
2:05
Hurricane Harvey 0.5pt win 3/1
Despite previewing 10 races last night, there weren’t that
many which were suitable for tipping…
The 2 juvenile hurdles were out; tipping in 4 horse novice chases, is not a path I’ve previously gone down; whilst the novice hurdle at Cheltenham held minimal appeal.
I was therefore left with the 4 handicaps - plus the International hurdle.
2 of the handicaps (the final races on both cards), look nearly impossible to solve - as does the International hurdle.
I found Best bets in the 2 other races - and then looked again for some more obscure opportunities.
I found one more Best bet, in one of the small field novice chases - plus a couple of races which I was prepared to get involved with, via Matrix.
Some times it happens: days which look like they should yield plenty of opportunities end up yielding very few.
Let’s just hope that the ones I did manage to dig out, justifies the effort !
Cheltenham
There is too much guesswork required, to ever consider getting involved in the Cheltenham opener (12:05).
If forced, I would probably side with the unraced Simply True - who looks as if he could be a bit of value at 14/1.
I’m not being forced though…
I got very close to putting up Quel Destin against Chantry House in the 12:40.
I have it in mind, that I am going to take on a few ‘hot pots’ in small field novice chases - and have done precisely that at Doncaster.
I can certainly make a good case for Quel Destin - but something is stopping me from making him a Best bet.
I’ll nap him in the December naps competition, instead !
I’m sure that me making Born Survivor a Best bet, caught out a few of you diligent preview readers !
First of all, I should say that it wasn’t me trying to be ‘clever’. When I previewed the race last night, he didn’t feature on my short list.
My original intention was to go with Sky Pirate - however his price crashed yesterday evening (from 5/1 in to 7/2).
I also re-watched videos of his 2 recent runs - and his finishing effort was very weak.
I would expect it to be better over 2 miles - but he’ll still be facing the Cheltenham hill at the end !
I therefore watched videos of the other main contenders, as it felt like a race I should be able to solve.
When Magic Saint won at Cheltenham, Born Survivor was running in the same race.
He was going just as well as the winner, when he nearly uprooted the third last.
It cost him about 5 lengths - plus momentum.
Ultimately, he was beaten 13 lengths - but is 11lb better off today.
That should mean there is little between the pair - but Born Survivor is 3 times the price.
I also suspect he will be spot on today…
He’s no certainty - but he’s a ‘value bet’, with a decent chance.
For the Matrix, I’ll save on Sky Pirate, just in case I’ve over-complicated things !
In the big race (1:50), I’ve decided to side with Midnight Shadow.
I think his sixth place in last seasons Marsh chase, is the best form on show - and he’s also won at 2 of his other 3 course visits.
It’s a very competitive race - full of potential improvers, so it won’t be easy to win.
That said, I think he has a better chance than most.
I’ve gone off Coole Cody a bit, mainly because Champagne Mystery is running.
He’s another confirmed front runner, so Coole Cody is unlikely to get the unconstested lead that he got in the Paddy Power…
I like Ask a Honey Bee best in the the 2:25 - but I don’t like the fact that Paddy Brennan isn’t riding him.
It’s nothing against Connor Brace - but you don’t put up a 3lb claimer, who is unable to claim, if you want to give yourself the best chance of winning a race.
In truth, it’s a very hard race to call regardless, so I’m happy to just watch…
I got quite close to making Verdana Blue a Best bet in the 3:00.
That was my intention - but she shouldn’t really beat Silver Streak.
I then toyed with making them both Best bets - but this is a very open contest.
Victory for all bar a couple of the runners, wouldn’t come as a big surprise.
There is also the ‘Goshen factor’.
Gary Moore is very bullish about his chances - and that’s not his style.
He could easily blow the race apart - so even if I’d manage to pick the right one of the others, it would be immaterial…
I decided to cover both of my fancies in the Matrix - but stopped short of making either one a Best bet.
When I first looked at the 3:35, I was drawn to Eglantine du Seuil.
However, I then talked myself out of her, figuring she was running to get her mark down.
Now I’m not so sure !
She’s very strong in the betting (very strong indeed) - and she could easily be good enough to win this.
I couldn’t put her up at 4/1 - but equally, I’m disinclined to oppose her when there’s nothing I really fancy taking her on with.
Doncaster
As I mentioned, I’m quite keen to add a new string to my bow, by taking on suspect favourites in small field novice chases.
I can make a good case for Hurricane Harvey in the 2:05 - and it is added to, by the fact that Paddy Brennan is riding him .
The form of Colin Tizzards stable is a negative for Ofalltheginjoints - so this feels like a good race to start the experiment !
I was never going to touch the juvenile hurdle (2:40).
Monmiral should win - but I’ll be watching him do so !
The finale on the Doncaster card is a hard one to call. It reminds me of the last race at Cheltenham yesterday, in that you’ve got lots of old horses taking on a few young ones.
A young one won yesterday - and that may well be the case in this race, with Boldmere a solid favourite.
However, I’m prepared to risk a few Matrix units on Skipthecuddles.
He really is potentially well handicapped, so if connections have him right, after his 2 year absence, then he should go very close.
The 2 juvenile hurdles were out; tipping in 4 horse novice chases, is not a path I’ve previously gone down; whilst the novice hurdle at Cheltenham held minimal appeal.
I was therefore left with the 4 handicaps - plus the International hurdle.
2 of the handicaps (the final races on both cards), look nearly impossible to solve - as does the International hurdle.
I found Best bets in the 2 other races - and then looked again for some more obscure opportunities.
I found one more Best bet, in one of the small field novice chases - plus a couple of races which I was prepared to get involved with, via Matrix.
Some times it happens: days which look like they should yield plenty of opportunities end up yielding very few.
Let’s just hope that the ones I did manage to dig out, justifies the effort !
Cheltenham
There is too much guesswork required, to ever consider getting involved in the Cheltenham opener (12:05).
If forced, I would probably side with the unraced Simply True - who looks as if he could be a bit of value at 14/1.
I’m not being forced though…
I got very close to putting up Quel Destin against Chantry House in the 12:40.
I have it in mind, that I am going to take on a few ‘hot pots’ in small field novice chases - and have done precisely that at Doncaster.
I can certainly make a good case for Quel Destin - but something is stopping me from making him a Best bet.
I’ll nap him in the December naps competition, instead !
I’m sure that me making Born Survivor a Best bet, caught out a few of you diligent preview readers !
First of all, I should say that it wasn’t me trying to be ‘clever’. When I previewed the race last night, he didn’t feature on my short list.
My original intention was to go with Sky Pirate - however his price crashed yesterday evening (from 5/1 in to 7/2).
I also re-watched videos of his 2 recent runs - and his finishing effort was very weak.
I would expect it to be better over 2 miles - but he’ll still be facing the Cheltenham hill at the end !
I therefore watched videos of the other main contenders, as it felt like a race I should be able to solve.
When Magic Saint won at Cheltenham, Born Survivor was running in the same race.
He was going just as well as the winner, when he nearly uprooted the third last.
It cost him about 5 lengths - plus momentum.
Ultimately, he was beaten 13 lengths - but is 11lb better off today.
That should mean there is little between the pair - but Born Survivor is 3 times the price.
I also suspect he will be spot on today…
He’s no certainty - but he’s a ‘value bet’, with a decent chance.
For the Matrix, I’ll save on Sky Pirate, just in case I’ve over-complicated things !
In the big race (1:50), I’ve decided to side with Midnight Shadow.
I think his sixth place in last seasons Marsh chase, is the best form on show - and he’s also won at 2 of his other 3 course visits.
It’s a very competitive race - full of potential improvers, so it won’t be easy to win.
That said, I think he has a better chance than most.
I’ve gone off Coole Cody a bit, mainly because Champagne Mystery is running.
He’s another confirmed front runner, so Coole Cody is unlikely to get the unconstested lead that he got in the Paddy Power…
I like Ask a Honey Bee best in the the 2:25 - but I don’t like the fact that Paddy Brennan isn’t riding him.
It’s nothing against Connor Brace - but you don’t put up a 3lb claimer, who is unable to claim, if you want to give yourself the best chance of winning a race.
In truth, it’s a very hard race to call regardless, so I’m happy to just watch…
I got quite close to making Verdana Blue a Best bet in the 3:00.
That was my intention - but she shouldn’t really beat Silver Streak.
I then toyed with making them both Best bets - but this is a very open contest.
Victory for all bar a couple of the runners, wouldn’t come as a big surprise.
There is also the ‘Goshen factor’.
Gary Moore is very bullish about his chances - and that’s not his style.
He could easily blow the race apart - so even if I’d manage to pick the right one of the others, it would be immaterial…
I decided to cover both of my fancies in the Matrix - but stopped short of making either one a Best bet.
When I first looked at the 3:35, I was drawn to Eglantine du Seuil.
However, I then talked myself out of her, figuring she was running to get her mark down.
Now I’m not so sure !
She’s very strong in the betting (very strong indeed) - and she could easily be good enough to win this.
I couldn’t put her up at 4/1 - but equally, I’m disinclined to oppose her when there’s nothing I really fancy taking her on with.
Doncaster
As I mentioned, I’m quite keen to add a new string to my bow, by taking on suspect favourites in small field novice chases.
I can make a good case for Hurricane Harvey in the 2:05 - and it is added to, by the fact that Paddy Brennan is riding him .
The form of Colin Tizzards stable is a negative for Ofalltheginjoints - so this feels like a good race to start the experiment !
I was never going to touch the juvenile hurdle (2:40).
Monmiral should win - but I’ll be watching him do so !
The finale on the Doncaster card is a hard one to call. It reminds me of the last race at Cheltenham yesterday, in that you’ve got lots of old horses taking on a few young ones.
A young one won yesterday - and that may well be the case in this race, with Boldmere a solid favourite.
However, I’m prepared to risk a few Matrix units on Skipthecuddles.
He really is potentially well handicapped, so if connections have him right, after his 2 year absence, then he should go very close.
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