As most of you are aware, I introduced the Matrix this season, to try and counter the impact of luck…
The theory was: more bets, should mean less variance.However, that’s not quite how it’s been working out !
They endured the same shocking run of luck as the Best bets, during the first 3 weeks of the season: and now that the Best bets luck has settled, they’ve embarked on a run of luck of their own - which if anything, is surpassing those first few traumatic weeks !
Friday
The first day of the 2 day International meeting got underway on ground described as ‘soft - good to soft in places’.
I’m getting a bit twitchy about judging ground conditions - so I kept things relatively light in terms of Best bets - with just the 2.
I was particularly keen on the first of them: Kalashnikov - as I felt he would be able to handle ground conditions however they were riding.
In truth, I’m not sure that was quite the case, as he seemed to find everything happening a bit too quick.
Maybe the issue was the trip, as opposed to the ground - as he could now need 3 miles…
Whatever the reason, he was never travelling as easily as I would have liked - though equally, he was never out of contention.
When Fanion Destruval fell at the third last, it removed one of the big dangers - though he still had to master the other: Mister Fisher.
That looked unlikely on the run between the final 2 flights - but Kalashnikov got the better jump at the last and it did briefly look as if his greater stamina was going to win the day.
Alas however, Mister Fisher had still got some petrol in the tank - and it was he who pulled away on the run to the line.
It was a frustrating race, as I couldn’t see past the first 2 home and Fanion - and I covered the latter in the Matrix.
My expectation was that the ground would be a bit too soft for Mister Fisher - but he got away with it - and was just a bit better than Kalashnikov.
The other Best bet on the day, was Out Sam.
I put him up earlier in the season, when he finished a creditable fifth in the Cork national - but I fancied him more this time.
However, he too seemed to get caught out by ground which was quicker than I expected.
He could just never get into a rhythm, and Sean Bowen had to continually chip away at him.
It was to his credit, that he did eventually run on to finish fourth - though he never remotely looked like winning.
In addition to him, I also covered a couple of more speculative ones for the Matrix: Beau de Brizais and Defi des Carres.
The former ran a fair race to finish fifth - but the latter was incredibly unlucky not to win…
He set out to make all - and jumping the last, was still 3 lengths clear.
He didn’t even appear to be stopping up the hill - but his jockey made the fatal mistake of not grabbing the rail, and Some Neck collared him, literally on the line.
He was matched at 1.02 in running - and to be honest, that looked generous !
The 34 units would have been very welcome for the Matrix - but it was not to be…
The only other suggested bet on the day, was Torcello, for the Matrix.
He ran a good race for a 40/1 shot - but weakened out of things, in the home straight…
The days other races generally went as the preview/rationale suggested - and I was left wondering how I’d managed to lose ! (officially speaking).
Make me a Believer won the opener - and even drifted out to an almost acceptable price (around 7/2); Happygolucky won the novice chase - and whilst I wouldn’t have backed him at the price, I did respect his chance.
Lively Citizen was just pipped in the handicap hurdle by Breffniboy.
I didn’t fancy the winner - but the runner up would have been in a full matrix (if I’d issued one !).
Black Tulip and Nikap were my 2 main fancies in the mare chase - and they filled the places behind surprise winner, Madeira Mist.
Storm Controls victory was a bit annoying, as he was anther one who I had dismissed mainly in the expectation that the ground would be too soft.
Finally, Come on Teddy won the last.
The issue with him wasn’t the ground - it was the price.
8/1 the evening before had become 4/1 at the time when I issued - and whilst he drifted out to 11/2 at the off, that happened too late…
Between them, ground conditions, price crashes and luck, certainly make this a challenging occupation !!
Saturday
Despite there being a quite lot of races, it ended up a relatively quiet day - from a bets perspective.
There were just 3 Best bets - along with a few Matrix bets in a couple of the other races.
Born Survivor was the first Best bet to run.
He hadn’t been my original fancy in the race - but a price crash on Sky Pirate caused me to go looking for an alternative - and I came up with him !
However, he got hampered by the early fall of Forest Bihan - and never managed to get back into the race.
In accordance with Sods Law, Sky Pirate then proceeded to hack up - and after drifting in price !
Fortunately, the Matrix allows me to cover such eventualities - so for once, there was a silver lining attached to the cloud !
That wasn’t the case in the next race - and it maybe should have been…
I issued Midnight Shadow as a Best bet - and he ran an absolute cracker.
In truth, he was as good a pick as Cap du Nord and Cloth Cap - and really should have won just as easily.
He travelled beautifully through the race - and it was clear from a long way out that he was going to go very close.
Unfortunately for him (and us !), Chatham Street Lad travelled even more sweetly - and it became apparent turning in, that he was likely to hack up !
I have to admit that I wished him an unseat, at the second last - but alas, it didn’t happen !
Instead he pinged it - and strode clear on the run to the last.
He pinged that as well - and won by 15 lengths in a hack canter.
Grade 1 handicaps don’t get won like that - certainly not by a horse that was rated 118 just 3 runs back.
His trainer Mick Winter, said it was down to a change in his diet - and I did wonder what they had been feeding him ! (maybe some of my sour grapes !).
Anyway, Midnight Shadow won't go down as an ‘unlucky’ loser - but he was.
Running into a horse with nearly 2 stone in hand is unlucky (in fact, it should be impossible !).
Midnight Shadow beat the rest by 12 lengths - which itself was ridiculous - yet he wasn’t in shot when Chatham Hill Lad passed the line…
With hindsight, I should have covered the winner in the Matrix: I did pick him out as a potential ‘wild card’ in the preview - but didn’t act on it…
As a consequence, it was left to Hurricane Harvey to try and save the day for the Best bets.
I’ve been intending to get involved with some of the small field novice chases, when I can see potential flaws in the favourites - and that was the case with his race.
Part of the issue with such races however, is that the markets can be particularly tight.
Unlike the big field handicaps, prices often don't hold up, as everyone is either backing one horse - or the other !
That wasn’t a particular issue today - though the SP of 5/2 was as short as I would have wanted to go…
In the race itself, Hurricane Harvey tracked the front running Milanford - and pounced between the final 2 fences.
It was a hard fought win - but it was well deserved - with the favourite, Ofalltheginjoints, finishing well beaten…
Arguably I should have staked higher - but it was a bit of an experiment, so I didn’t want to go mad.
Maybe I’ll be feeling a bit braver next time !
I also covered a couple of other races, for the Matrix.
After yesterdays incredible near miss in the cross country chase, I was hopeful that the luck pendulum would swing in their direction - but it was not to be…
In the International hurdle I couldn’t choose between Verdana Blue and Silver Streak.
The heart said Verdana - whilst the head said Silver.
As a consequence, I ended up with 3 units on each…
Verdana travelled nicely, to a point - but couldn’t find anything up the hill.
I might have to acknowledge that she is no longer the force she was.
Silver Streak on the other hand, battled all the way to the line.
However, he was short of room at a crucial point - and try as he might, he just couldn’t reel in Song for Someone.
It was a bit of a sickener, as he failed by just a nose - costing the Matrix another 30 units.
That’s over 60 units in 2 days…
Things didn’t get any better for the final Matrix bet.
That was Skipthecuddles at Doncaster - but his race was effectively over at the second fence when Chidswell broadsided him.
When your luck is out…
There wasn’t too much else to report from the other races on the day.
The juvenile hurdles were both won by heavily odds on favourites - as expected.
And whilst Chantry House was beaten in the novice chase - it was by Fussil Raffles and not Quel Destin (as I had hoped).
The mares hurdle was won by The White Mouse - who put in a good effort fend off Eglantine du Seuil; whilst Make Good won the the novice hurdle.
I did fancy him - but felt there was too much guesswork to consider an involvement at 8/1.
His SP of 12/1 was far more tempting - and a few of those on the Live Thread managed to better that - which was at least something…
TVB.
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