My expectation is that the Ascot 2 day meeting, will open tomorrow, on heavy ground.
There’s always a slight doubt, where ground conditions are concerned - but the going description is currently ‘soft - heavy in paces’ - and there is more rain forecast.
In truth, it’s a pretty uninspiring card…
There are only 6 races - and one of those is a bumper.
Add to that a 5 runner maiden hurdle - and you are left with just 4 races, in which there is any hope of finding a bet.
The 2 handicaps look the most likely sources of action - and if I do manage to find anything, I’ll advise after 10:00 in the morning.
Here are my early thoughts on the first 5 races (I’m swerving the bumper completely !)
Ascot
12:45
This is probably the best betting race on the card - it’s just a shame it’s not on terrestrial TV (as the market won’t be as strong)
Castle Robin beat Steal a March in a similar race at the Cheltenham November meeting - and both are well fancied in this.
However, this strikes me as a stronger contest - and as both horses have been raised in the handicap, I’ll be happy to take them on, at the likely odds…
Zyon was impressive when winning at Wincanton, last month on his first run for over a year.
It’s impossible to gauge the strength of the form - but he looked a nice horse and bearing in mind his connections, it’s no surprise to see him disputing early favouritism.
Shang Tong was a comfortable winner last time - albeit he only faced 4 rivals.
As a piece of form, his previous third to Arrivederci at Wetherby, is much stronger. The runner up in that race subsequently won a decent race at Haydock - and Shang Tong still had every chance running to the last.
He’s off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow - but he still sets the race standard.
Chazza ran a good race last time, when second to Beffniboy at Leicester.
The winner went in again at Cheltenham last week, so the form has a solid look.
Chazza led that day - and kept on strongly when passed. It was the same story on his previous run at Bangor, when he got back up having been passed on the run to the last.
He looks like he will benefit significantly from the step up in trip that he gets tomorrow…
Jacamar caught my eye last time, when staying on strongly in a decent race at Newbury.
When he won earlier in the season at Aintree, it was on soft ground, so he should appreciate tomorrows ground.
There’s probably not a lot of room for error, in his handicap mark - but I would expect him to run well and be staying on late.
1:20
I doubt ITV will show many weaker races this season, than this one…
A 5 runner class 3 maiden hurdle - it wouldn’t have looked out of place on todays Hereford card (with all due respect to Hereford !).
Everglow looks the one to beat.
He contested a listed bumper on his second start last season: and began this campaign by running in the grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle.
He didn’t cut much ice in either event - but has finished runner up on his 2 other starts, which were in more mundane company.
Last time, he was unlucky to bump into Star Gate - as that one could be exceptional.
I doubt he will face any exceptional performers tomorrow - which means he is highly like to break his duck.
If there is an upset, then Fearless Fracas looks the one most likely to provide it - but it’s probably just a race to watch…
1:55
This is a fair novice handicap chase - though based solely on hurdles form, I would be very keen on Mack the Man.
He beat Protektorat and Song for Someone at Sandown last December - which is exceptionally strong form.
More than that, he looked like going very close in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury in February - but was unluckily brought down at the final flight.
He runs off the same mark tomorrow - and on ground he will relish, he does look to have a very strong chance, from a handicapping perspective.
Ofcourse the potential issue is the fences !
He’s only run once over the bigger obstacles, when well beaten by Hitman at Ffos Las, last month.
In fairness, Hitman is a probably a graded animal, so there wasn’t too much shame in being beaten 30 lengths.
It also very much looked like an educational outing for Mack the Man and I sure he can improve massively on it.
The question is whether he will do tomorrow…
The race could be set up for him, with Editeur du Gite and Numitor likely to force a strong pace.
Provided he doesn’t get too far out of his ground, then he could easily pick them off, late on.
If things don’t work out for him, then Flegmatic could be the one to take advantage.
He was a good winner at Carlisle on his chasing debut and then had no luck at all, last time at Sandown (he was twice hampered by fallers).
He doesn’t have the class of Mack the Man - but is more likely to run his race.
2:30
This is an interesting little novice hurdle - but a hard race to call with much confidence.
Llandinabo Lad, No Ordinary Joe, My Drago and Soaring Glory, are all disputing favouritism.
Llandinabo Lad has to give 5lb to his rivals, on the back of his win in a Listed race at Haydock, last time.
He showed great tenacity to come out on top that day - but he’ll be doing well to concede the weight tomorrow, to some potentially talented rivals.
No Ordinary Joe will be having his first run over hurdles, having won a bumper last time, on his debut at Sandown.
He was quite impressive that day - but there is no substitute for experience, and he hasn’t got any !
He’ll need to be very good indeed, to take this race on his first attempt over timber.
As a consequence, My Drogo and Soaring Glory could be the 2 to focus on.
The former won well at Newbury last time, having previously finished runner up in a strong bumper at Cheltenham.
Soaring Glory is the most experienced of the main contenders.
He finished second in the bumper on this card, 12 months ago: and won on his hurdling debut at Chepstow, in October.
He failed by a couple of lengths, to give 6lb to Dusart at Newbury - but he might have been attempting an impossible task.
He would probably have won last time at Wetherby, but took a fall at the second last hurdle, when in the lead.
Provided he’s suffered no lasting effects, I would expect him to run well.
Neither of the 2 outsiders can be completely dismissed - though they do both look to have plenty on…
3:05
A little like the previous race, this is a very interesting contest - but maybe not the best betting medium…
This time there are 3 horses vying for favouritism in the early market: Fiddlerontheroof, Allart and Pic D’orhy.
Fiddlerontheroof won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle last season - but he’s been a little disappointing since then
In fairness, he’s not run too badly in his 4 subsequent starts - but his limitation do seem to have been exposed.
He finished quite a way behind Allart in last seasons Supreme novice hurdle - despite starting at a much shorter price.
His 3 runs over fences this season, have yielded a win and 2 seconds - but they seem to suggest he is roughly a 150 horse.
That might be good enough to win this race - but it might not…
Allart has the potential to improve beyond it on his chasing debut - though it’s impossible to know whether he will do.
Pic D’Orhy also retains potential - despite having already run twice over fences.
He looked as if he needed his seasonal debut, when second at Market Rasen; and then fell when still in the lead, at Ascot last time.
His win in last seasons Betfair hurdle, is stronger form than any of his rivals can manage - and as he’s still only 5, it’s reasonable to assume he has scope for further improvement.
The other 3 can all be given a chance of some sort.
Bold Plan did well to run down The Big Breakaway at Exeter last time - though it’s hard to get a handle on that form and a 3lb penalty won’t help his cause.
Kiltealy Briggs and Antunes can both boast reasonable form over hurdles - and have shown some promise on their respective attempts over fences.
However, they lack that bit of star quality, and that will count against them if one of the market leaders fulfils its potential.
No comments:
Post a Comment