Review of the Weekend (Apr 3rd-5th)

This was definitely one of the strangest weekends of the entire season.

Spread over 3 days, it had no real focus - and felt quite disjointed.
It’s not that there weren’t some decent races - it’s just that there were long gaps between them.

With hindsight, it’s not one I’ll look back on with too much affection !


Saturday

Whilst it was the first day of the 3 day Easter meeting at Fairyhouse, there was nothing of interest on the card, so my attention was completely on Haydock.

In truth, there wasn’t too much of interest there - and I ended up with just the one Best bet on the day.

That was The Paddy Pie, who I hoped might be able to topple hot favourite, Five Star Getaway.

My angle was that it was impossible to quantify how good the favourite actually was - and there was a chance the handicapper might have caught up with him.

Alas that wasn’t the case - and he had no trouble in recording his third consecutive facile win.

The Paddy Pie ran well and finished third.
In truth, he would have been a good EW bet - as I was happy to eliminate half of the 8 runner field.

However, I tend not to suggest EW bets - and instead had a saver on the outsider Zolfo.
Unfortunately, he never featured…

The other bets on the day were all for the Matrix.

In the next race on the card, I took a position against the 3 market leaders - and used the Matrix to cover 3 of the bigger priced runners.
However, I got the race wrong, and second favourite, Vision du Puy was an easy winner.

The 2 other Matrix bets, were both speculative.

The first was Tel’Art and he ran really well for a 50/1 shot, and was beaten just over 3 lengths.
That was much better than Oriental Cross did.
She was the final bet on the day, but never travelled in the mares race - and was pulled up after a series of mistakes…

The one that got away ? - possibly Innisfree Lad.
He had finished third on his previous outing, 9 lengths behind Debece.
I couldn’t see him reversing that form, so dismissed him from my thinking.

I was keen on Debece - but when he was declared a non runner, I didn’t revisit the race.

Maybe I would have picked up on Innisfree lad - I’ll never know for sure.
I certainly wasn’t feeling overly happy when he battled back to win at 18/1…

All in all, not the best of days.


Sunday

I did hope that Sunday would be better than Saturday (there was plenty of scope !).

I found 3 best bets on the day - and quite liked them all.

Master McShee was the first of them to run.
I had narrowed his race down to the 3 market leaders - and felt he represented a bit of value at 11/2.

Maybe I was right - however, he was absolutely no match for the mare, Echoes in Rain.

She was given a waiting ride by Paul Townend and looked different league to her rivals, as she cruised into the lead on the run to last - and then quickened clear to win by 15 lengths.

She looked absolutely top class - and I suspect you will be hearing plenty more of her in the next few seasons.

Atlantic Fairy was the next Best bet to run.
I had narrowed the race down to her and Skyace - but huge support for the latter, made it an easy decision, on which one to suggest.

My original expectation had been that I would be suggesting Skyace - however very bullish comments from her trainer the evening before, meant that the early 8/1 had become 7/2 by the time I was able to tip.
By contrast Atlantic Fairy had drifted from 7/2 to 9/2…

By the off it was 4/1 the pair.

In the race itself, Atlantic Fairy attempted to make all - but she was swamped on the run to the last - and Skyace showed the best turn of foot, to get up close home.

Needless to say, it was all a bit frustrating.

If Skyace has been 4/1 in the morning (never mind the BSP of nearly 5/1), I may have gone the other way.

I guess these things happen - but it doesn’t stop them from being annoying !

It was also a bit annoying the way things panned out with the final Best bet on the day.

I was keen to take on the 2 market leaders in the grade 1 novice chase - and that was a good move.

I narrowed the race down to 2 - and decided to make Franco de Port the Best bet - and just save on Cedarwood Road.
Again, that was the right call - as Cedarwood Road took a nasty fall around half way.

Where it went wrong, was that Franco de Ports jockey chose to follow Asterion Forlonge - but he wasn’t the danger.

Janidil was the danger - and by the time he reacted to that, Janidil was gone.

Whether Franco could have beaten him is a different matter - but he was never given much of a chance.

Another frustrating race…

In the only other race of interest, Gentlemansgame ran disappointingly; whilst Ashdale Bob bounced back to form.
I had suggested in the preview that he might be a bit of value, if he could recapture his early season form - and so it proved.

Officially however, it was a no bet race.

Another disappointing day…


Monday

The final day of the Easter festival saw the running of the Irish Grand National.

With non runners causing plenty of confusion in the earlier races on the card, I decided to just focus on the main race of the day for bets - plus a decent race at Plumpton !

At the odds, I was pretty keen on Opposites Attract in the National - but he ran disappointingly.
I was happy with his early position in the race - but for whatever reason, he didn’t maintain it.

With half a mile to run, he was virtually last - and his jumping had become erratic.
He ran on late - but was never in with a chance of winning.

Meanwhile, at the head of affairs, his stablemate Freewheelin Dylan gave his younger rivals a lesson in jumping and galloping.

On the approach to the last, I did think that Run Wild Fred was going to pick him up and at least save things for the Matrix - but a sloppy jump put pay to his chances and Dylan galloped on remorselessly.

It was a result I couldn’t have foreseen - so kudos to Chris, who put the horse up as part of his ‘Win Vector’.
Not many will have posted a winner with a BSP of 312 !

In the earlier races on the Fairyhouse card, I had given positive mentions in the preview to both Stormy Island and Easy Game.
With hindsight, I could maybe have taken a risk on Stormy Island - but it was another race where a late non runner, completely changed things.

The final Best bet of the weekend was The Unit, at Plumpton.

I hadn’t intended to suggest him - but I liked the look of the race - and on a quiet day, figured he was worth a chance.

However, he got caught out by a fast early pace - and jumped poorly over the first couple of fences.
That effectively sealed his fate - and whilst he stayed on late for fourth place, he was never in contention.

I also saved on Solomon Grey for the Matrix - but he finished just a neck in front of The Unit.

The race was won by Pistol Whipped.
He was the 7/2 fav this morning - but I felt he had enough questions to answer, to warrant being taken on at that price.
However, come the off he was an 11/1 shot - which I honestly find quite amazing !
He was Nico de Boinvilles only ride on the card - and clearly had a fair chance.

What made the race for him, was a complete change of tactics.
Normally held up, he instead set out to make all - and clearly relishing the better ground - did precisely that !

Again, the situation at the off, was completely different to the situation at 10:00 this morning.
If I’d been suggesting bets 5 mins before the off, I might easily have gone another way…

In summary, not the best of weekends !

TVB.

Apr 5th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

For the Irish National, you'll almost certainly get better prices on the exchanges - and the liquidity should be there. Just be patient !
I've put guide exchange prices in brackets, for the Matrix bets.

Matrix bets

Fairyhouse

5:00
Opposites Attract 2 units win 25/1 (34)
Opposites Attract 2 units place 6/1
Run While Fred 2 units 10/1 (12)
Espanito Bello 1 unit 14/1 (18)
Brace Yourself 1 unit 16/1 (19)
Augusta Gold 1 unit 10/1 (13)
Robin de Carlow 1 unit 16/1 (18)

Plumpton

2:55

The Unit 5 units win 8/1
Solomon Grey 2 units win 4/1


Best bets

Fairyhouse

5:00
Opposites Attract 0.25pt EW 25/1

Plumpton

2:55

The Unit 0.5pt win 8/1

 

There was really only one race of interest at Fairyhouse today - the Irish Grand National.

However, it has such a strong field, that even narrowing it down to a manageable size, was tricky…

Far easier to dissect, was the Sussex Champion chase at Plumpton - so I previewed that race and added a couple of bets there as well.

I was intrigued to see how the market coped with me doing that - and the answer, was not as bad as I feared !

Unsurprisingly, the 8/1+ on The Unit, went very quickly - but 15/2 was still available 10 mins after I issued - which is quite acceptable.
All it’s got to do now, is win !

Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…


Fairyhouse

The defection of Beacon Edge from the 3:50, has given the race a very different look.
In his absence, The Bosses Oscar is now a short priced favourite - but he wouldn’t interest me at 7/4.
French Dynamite holds a little more appeal at 10/3 - but not sufficient to get involved.
Stormy Island is the potential joker in the pack - but again, a price of 11/2 doesn’t overly compensate for the risks.
On balance, I can’t see a bet in the race…

There was a temptation to take on Fakir D’oudairies in the 4:20.
I think even money is too short - and dutching Battleoverdoyan and Easy Game against him, would have more appeal.
The trouble is, both need to bounce back to form (which they may or may not do).
I have backed them both at just over 5/1 - meaning I’ve got around 5/2 on one of them winning.
I think that’s a fair bet (if not an outstanding one) - if you can get it…

Opposites Attract is undoubtedly the value call in the Irish National (5:00) at 25/1+.
Back in October, he ran Latest Exhibition to 2 and a half lengths at level weights.
Today, he receives 18lb from him - which should see the form well and truly reversed !
I doubt it will be that straightforward - but all the same…
On that run, Opposites Attracts also holds Run Wild Fred and Espanito Bello - and I quite fancy those 2.
He’s shown decent form in his other races this season - and I like the fact he was given a break between Christmas and last month.
The suggestion being that he has been targeted at this race.
He may not be quite good enough to win - but I do expect him to run a really big race.
I was spoilt for choice for the Matrix: but I think Run Wild Fred is just about the most likely race winner.
I also want to cover on Espanito Bello and Brace Yourself.
I was pretty keen on the latter - but the 33/1 became 16/1 - and that has tempered enthusiasm for him.
The final 2 for the Matrix are the Willie Mullins pair, Augusta Gold and Robin de Carlow.
Neither have conventional profiles - but both could be well handicapped and if anyone can get them to perform, it’s Willie !

Plumpton

I looked at the Sussex Champion chase (3:55) yesterday afternoon - but didn’t expect The Unit to be such a big price this morning.
He looks just about the most likely race winner to me - so there is plenty of value in a quote of 8/1.
The form of his penultimate run at Warwick is good enough to win this - and he is now 2lb lower.
He was unplaced last time at Cheltenham - but I think it says a lot that Alan King was even prepared to run him in that race.
Solomon Grey looks by far the biggest danger - and it is worth saving on him for the Matrix.
The Unit is the Best bet of the day tho - probably the best bet of the weekend !

Apr 5th - Preview for Fairyhouse & Plumpton

 It’s Irish Grand National day tomorrow - and 5 of the Fairyhouse races will be shown live on ITV.

However, there is no way I’ll be suggesting any bets in the first 2 of them, so I’ve restricted the preview to the other 3 (the Grand National, plus 2 graded races).

I don’t expect there to be any issues suggesting bets for the big race - but based on today, the other 2 might be a bit trickier (and that’s assuming I can find something suitable !).

Here any my early thoughts on the main races on the card…


Fairyhouse

3:50

Even under his penalty, Beacon Edge very much looks the one to beat in this - on the back of his fine fourth last time, in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham.
I expected him to run well that day - and he certainly did.
In fact, it could be argued that he was the second best horse in the race - with his stamina not quite getting him up the hill.
He cuts back half a mile in trip tomorrow - and on quicker ground - but I think he will be fine with that.
He has good form over 2m4f - including a close third to Honeysuckle - and he definitely looks the one to beat.
The Bosses Oscar also ran well at Cheltenham - when runner up in the Pertemps final.
Again, that was over 3 miles - and I’m not quite so sure about him over half a mile less.
He might get away with it - but he has looked an improved horse, since being stepped up in trip.
French Dynamite beat The Bosses Oscar over 2m4f last season - and at the revised weights, The Bosses Oscar should have the edge.
However, 2m4f is French Dynamite’s optimum trip, so I doubt there will be much between the pair.
Stormy Island is the final one of interest, on her return to Willie Mullins.
She was trained by him last season - and at the time, rated 153.
She switched to Paul Nichols at the start of this season and was sent over fences. However that didn’t work out (she’s a relatively small mare) - and she also disappointed on 2 subsequent runs over hurdles.
She’ll need to bounce back to her best - but she may just do that.
Certainly, if she does, then receiving weight from all of her rivals - and over her ideal trip - she could be tough to beat.

4:20

Fakir D’oudaries has been installed a short priced favourite for this - and it’s easy enough to understand why…
He ran a huge race in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, when chasing home Allaho - and based on that run, is very much the one to beat.
In fairness, his claims aren’t based solely on one run.
He also ran very well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Chacun Pour Soi - and he finished second to Put the Kettle on, in last years Arkle.
There is a bit of a theme to his form (seconditis !) - but I don’t think there is anything ungenuine about him.
My bigger concern is that he had such a hard race at Cheltenham, it may have left a mark.
If it hasn’t then he is definitely the one to beat - but I couldn’t back him at 5/4, with that doubt hanging over him…
Battleoverdoyen and Easy Game look his biggest rivals.
They clashed at Down Royal in October - and despite Easy Game being sent off an odds on favourite, Battleoverdoyen came home a comfortable winner.
There looked to be no fluke about the result - but Battleoverdoyen has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races and now has plenty to prove.
I suspect the key to him, is being fresh and running on good ground - and on the back of a near 2 month break, he gets ticks in both of those boxes tomorrow.
 If he does bounce back to the Down Royal form, then even a peak form Fakir will have his work cut out to beat him.
Easy Game will also need to bounce back to form, as he too has been disappointing in his 2 runs since Down Royal (and arguably, was a little disappointing that day).
Again, good ground and being fresh, should help him - and if he turns up in peak form, he too should run a very big race.
It’ll be a little surprising if the winner comes from outside the 3 mentioned - but if it does, then Sizing Pottsie could be the one.
He looked very good, when winning at Fairyhouse in December - but has disappointed on 3 subsequent starts.
It was interesting to note that Jessie Harrington had 3 of winners today - and this is the time of year when she tends to really find some form.
Sizing Pottsie will need to improve if he is to trouble the main protagonists - but it’s far from impossible that he will do just that.

5:00

Whenever I look at a race like this (a valuable handicap chase), the first thing I do, is look for young, unexposed horses, who are capable of improving.
Time after time, such horses win these kind of races - but for this particular race, it’s a futile exercise !

No less than 22 of the 30 runners, are 8 or younger.
NH horses are generally considered to be at their peak at 9 - so the vast majority of the field are still improving.
Around half of the runners are still novices - which is a truly remarkable situation !

Connections have clearly wised up to the fact that you need a horse with at least half a stone in hand to win a race of this nature - and that’s far more likely to happen with a young, improver.

As a consequence, drawing up a short list isn’t quite as easy as normal - but I’ve still given it a go…

Top of the list has to be Latest Exhibition.
He’s finished runner up to Monkfish on his 2 most recent starts - and even off a mark of 153, if those runs are taken literally, he is well handicapped.
He has stamina to burn - and top weight may not stop him from winning.
Augusta Gold is the next on the list, on her first run for Willie Mullins.
Previously trained by Mags Mullins, she already has form which would give her a chance - and it’s fair to assume that the stable switch won’t have set her back !
Run While Fred finished runner up in the Thystes on his most recent start.
That was behind stablemate Coco Beach - and he re-opposes tomorrow on 10lb better terms.
That should be sufficient to reverse a 4 lengths beating - and Jack Kennedy in the saddle suggests he is the stables main hope.
Robin de Carlow beat Put the Kettle On, on his most recent outing - and based on that run, is thrown in off a mark of 138.
however, he’s not been seen for 18 months - and is unproven over the trip.
On the flip side, he’s trained by Willie Mullins and will be ridden by Rachael Blackmore…
Sempo also looks well handicapped - based on his sixth in last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival.
He’s not had much joy over fences this season - but has been campaigned over shorter distances.
Stepped back up in trip tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a much improved performance.
Espanito Bello should have beaten Coko Beach last time at Navan - and provided he jumps a bit better tomorrow, I would expect him to reverse the form, on 3lb better terms.
I would also expect Brace Yourself to reverse Porterstown form with Court Maid, on the back of a 10lb turnaround in the weights.
With such strength in depth at the head of the market, it seems a bit futile to try and find a few interesting outsiders.
That said, I do think there are at least a couple worthy of attention…
Discordantly ran well at Cheltenham - and with the Jessie Harrington yard back in form, he looks quite interesting, off a 2lb lower mark. Whilst Opposites Attract is well weighted with Latest Exhibition, on their meeting at Punchestown in October - if you can take that form line literally.

Suffice to say, this is not an easy race to solve !!

Plumpton

There’s a really nice class 2 handicap taking place at Plumpton (the Sussex Champion chase).

It’s an 8 runner handicap chase - so the perfect race for me.

I don’t know how the market will be looking just after 10:00 - but if it’s sufficiently robust, I may well issue my second ever tip for Plumpton (I’ll be very impressed if anyone can remember the other one !)

3:55

This is a really tight looking handicap chase - just the way I like them !
Pistol Whipped heads the market - and whilst there is no disputing his talent, his attitude can leave something to be desired.
He looked sure to win on his penultimate outing at Kempton - before deciding not to go through with his effort,.
If he’s to win today, then I suspect Nico will have to leave his challenge very late..
Solomon Grey represents the Skeltons - and he looks a more solid proposition.
He ran third in the summer plate at Uttoxeter in July - and then won at Uttoxeter in August.
He then wasn’t seen until running at Hereford last month. That will probably have blown away the cobwebs - and back on his favoured good ground, I would expect him to go very well.
Dr Sanderson should also go well.
He won over today course and distance in October - before disappointing at Doncaster, the following month.
He had a pipe open on the AW in February - so should be ready to do himself justice today.
Not a Role Model returns to fences, having disappointed over hurdles last time: whilst Mellow Ben has endured a series of tough races, and could possibly do with a break.
Neither strike me as the likely winner.
The Unit has more of a chance.
He’s closely matched with Doctor Sanderson on running at Doncaster - whilst his third to Espoire De Teillee at Warwick on his penultimate outing, is good form.
The Flying Sofa represents the Moores - and they always have to be feared at Plumpton; whilst Imperial Presence is the class horse in the field.
That said, he has to carry 12st7lb - and successfully doing that, will take a massive effort.

Apr 4th - Bets/Staking Rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Fairyhouse

2:50
Master McShee 5 units win 11/2

3:20
Atlantic Fairy 5 units win 9/2

5:00
Franco de Port 5 units win 15/2
Cedarwood Road 2 units win 14/1


Best bets


Fairyhouse

2:50
Master McShee 0.5pt win 11/2

3:20
Atlantic Fairy 0.5pt win 9/2

5:00
Franco de Port 0.5pt win 15/2

 

It’s never easy tipping early in Irish races.

They don’t get much bigger than todays (two grade 1s and a grade 2) - but even at 10:00 the markets were incredibly fragile.

Obviously there is nothing I can do about it - and hopefully you were all sensible in terms of the prices you took.

As always, I do think the prices quoted were reasonable and whilst all 3 horses immediately shortened in price, I would expect them to drift back out again, as the off times approach.

It is simply a case of supply and demand - and me tipping in the morning, creates a demand the market can’t match.

Anyway, here’s the thinking behind the suggested bets…

 
Fairyhouse

I narrowed the 2:50 down to three - and at the available prices, Master McShee has to be a bet…
I’m not surprised he’s the outsider of the trio: he comes from a relatively small yard and he bled last time - those facts will put off plenty !
However, his form is arguably the best in the race and at 5/1+, he has to be a bet.
Echoes in Rain could find the race playing out against her (in terms of pace), meaning that Thedevilscoachman is the most likely danger.
However, he’s a 7/4 shot - and I don’t think Master McShee deserves to be 3 times his price.

I was really surprised by the early support for Skyace in the 3:20.
She was 8/1 last night and at that price would have been the bet.
However, she had been backed in to 7/2 this morning - and that’s too short.
As a consequence of her popularity, Atlantic Fairy drifted to 11/2.
The withdrawal of Rosey Hollow saw that price clipped to 9/2 - but I still think that’s too big.
I can see her trying to make all under Rachael - and at the moment, there is no one better at executing such a ride.
I will try to save my stake on Skyace, as she is the biggest danger - but the odds weren’t there to cover her officially.

I like Gentlemansgame best in the 3:50 - but his price has been hammered.
With Grand Paradis a Non runner, Egality Mans looks his biggest danger.
He’s a 7/1 shot with the bookies - but double that on the exchanges !
In truth, he has drifted to such an extent, the suggestion is that he can’t win.
All the same, I’ve had a couple of quid on, just in case !

At the prices, I think Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne can be opposed in the 5:00.
Both have the talent to win - but they also have quirks/frailties.
I would really struggle to back either at a short price.
I’m not a massive fan of Franco de Port - but he is the value at early prices.
He’s officially the best horse in the race and I can see him relishing the step up to 2m4f.
I also think it is worth covering Cedarwood Road for the Matrix.
He will need to improve if he is to win - but I suspect he is capable of doing just that.
I toyed with making him the Best bet, rather than Franco - but Franco is the solid one (I just needed to overcome my prejudice !)

Apr 4th - Preview for Fairyhouse

 There’s plenty of NH racing again tomorrow - but as with today, it’s a case of quantity over quality…

There’s little of interest at the 3 UK meetings - and whilst things are a bit better at Cork, if that was as good as it got, I’d be having a day off !

Fortunately, it’s not - as there are some decent races taking place at Fairyhouse.

Somewhat bizarrely, the 8 race card is comprised completely of novice events - though 4 of them are graded conditions events…

They make up 4 of the 5 races that will be shown on RTE: and whilst the other one is a handicap - and therefore should be more attractive from a betting perspective - it looks a bit of a minefield, so I’ve left it alone !


Fairyhouse

2:50

This race looks most likely to rest between Master McShee, Echoes in Rain and Thedevilscoachman - which is a bit of a shame, as they are the top 3 in the betting ! Master McShee is potentially the most interesting.
He finished runner up to Appreciate It on his hurdling debut at Cork in November.
He was only beaten 2 and a half lengths that day, despite starting at 50/1 !
No other horse this season, has managed to get that close to Appreciate It - and Master McShee showed it was no fluke, by winning his next 2.
He was sent off at just 8/1, to exact revenge on Appreciate It, when the pair clashed again in a grade 1 event at the Dublin Racing festival in February.
However, he finished well beaten that day - and it subsequently transpired that he had bled.
That is obviously a worry - but provided there is no repeat tomorrow, he looks the one to beat.
Thedevilscoachman was beaten 20 lengths by Appreciate It, in a grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That was a little disappointing - but he has bounced back and won his next 2.
On a line through Appreciate It, he is held by Master McShee - but things may not be quite that straightforward…
Echoes in Rain is the third one of the big 3.
She’s a head strong mare, who until last time, had always insisted on leading in her races.
She consented to follow Razzle Dazzle Love, in her most recent race at Naas - and that worked out nicely, as she took over the running at the second last and then cantered clear.
The form of that race was given a massive boost, when the runner up, Belfast Banter, won the country hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
In truth, it’s hard to equate the form of Echoes in Rain with that of Master McShee and Thedevilscoachman - but I suspect she will give them a good race.
Most of the others are either held by the market leaders, or simply don’t look good enough.
The one possible exception is Grand Bornand.
He was well beaten by Thedevilscoachman on his Irish debut - but was sent off at 4/7 that day.
Clearly better was expected - and he has run well in his 2 subsequent races (winning one and finishing runner up in the other).
It wouldn’t be the greatest of shocked if he got much closer to Thedevilscoachman tomorrow…

3:20

As a grade 1 mares novice hurdle race, it’s maybe not too surprising that most of the main protagonists for this race, ran last time in the grade 2 mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
That race was won by Telmesomethinggirl, with Skyace doing best of those who compete in tomorrows contest.
She finished fourth: with Glens of Antrim, sixth; Roseys Hollow seventh, Gauloise, eleventh and Hook up twelfth.
It’s hard to see why any of those who finished behind Skyace should reverse the form - particularly as she is better off at the weights with most of them.
The question is whether that form will be good enough to win tomorrow…
Telmesomethinggirl is trained by Henry de Bromhead - and he is represented in tomorrows race by Atlantic Fairy.
She finished second to Master McShee on her hurdling debut at Cork in December (look out for clues in the previous race !) - but has won her 2 subsequent races.
Interestingly, Global Equity, has been beaten by Skyace, Roseys Hollow, Gauloise and Atlantic Fairy, in 4 of her races this season - and collateral form lines through her, suggest that Skyace is the best of the 4.
Things are rarely that simply - with drying ground and tough races at Cheltenham to take into consideration.
All the same, it is certainly worth bearing in mind, as Skyace may well be under-estimated in the betting, due to her less fashionable connections…

3:50

It’s not too surprising to see Gentlemansgame heading the early market for this…
He was a real eye catcher last time, when runner up to Gallard de Mesnil at the Dublin Racing festival, on only his second outing over hurdles.
On the back of that run, he was prominent in the ante-post market for the Albert Bartlet at the Cheltenham festival - but connections said that race would be too much for him at this stage of his career - and that he would run at either Fairyhouse or Punchestown.
And here he is !
He certainly looks the one to beat - though he faces a few potentially useful rivals.
Chief amongst them is Grand Paradis.
He only managed to finish fourth on his hurdling debut at Naas in January - but has won his 2 subsequent starts in impressive fashion.
He could be very good.
Egality Mans could also be very good.
He too was beaten on his hurdling debut - but made no mistake next time, when winning at Naas in February.
He wasn’t as impressive as Grand Paradis - but he has endless scope for improvement.
It’ll be a little surprising if the race isn’t won by one of the 3 mentioned.
However, Ashdale Bob is quite an interesting outsider - if he can bounce back to form.
He looked good when winning a grade 2 at Navan in December - but then fell at the second in his next run at Naas.
He ran OK at Leopardstown, behind Gallard de Mesnil (and Gentlemansgame), when possibly finding the trip too far.
His cause tomorrow isn’t helped by the fact he has to shoulder a 5lb penalty - but even so, he looks a little over-priced at the early 14/1.

5:00

The second grade 1 on the card, looks like being a cracking contest.
Energumene was an odds on favourite for the race in the ante-post lists - but he’s not been declared and as a consequence, the race has a far more open look.

Asterion Forlonge has been installed a relatively short priced favourite, back running right handed after a highly creditable third place finish in the Marsh chase at the Cheltenham festival.
That was a good effort - building nicely on his previous fourth to Monkfish at the Dublin Racing festival - and helping to erase the memory of his 2 earlier falls.
He was the best of these over hurdles - so if he can perform to that level over fences, he is very much the one to beat.
That said, based on his run behind Monkfish, he will have his work cut out to beat Andy Dufresne.
He finished a length in front of Asterion Forlonge that day - suggesting there isn’t much between the pair.
It is possible that Asterion put in an improved performance last time at Cheltenham -  but equally, it’s possible that a hard race that day will have left it mark…
Franco de Port also ran at Cheltenham - but he was a big disappointment in the Arkle.
He wasn’t expected to beat Shishkin that day - but he jumped poorly and finished a well beaten last.
On that form, he has no chance - but on the form of his 2 previous runs: when second to Energumene and when winning a grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas: he has a definite chance.
He is stepping up to 2m4f over fences for the first time tomorrow - but that may well bring about some improvement.
It will interesting if he does, as he is already the highest rated horse in the race, on official rankings.
Scarlet and Dove has some fair form in mares races - and the 7lb sex allowance she receives, puts her right in the mix.
Whilst Cedarwood Road was a decent novice hurdler last season, and is gradually finding his form over fences.
It would be no surprise to see both of them run well.

Apr 3rd - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Haydock

1:30
The Paddy Pie 5 units win 7/1
Zolfo 1 unit win 33/1

2:05
Dino Velvet 2 units win 11/2
Chti Balko 2 units win 10/1
Da Vinci Hand 1 unit win 25/1

3:15
Tel'Art 2 units win 50/1

3:50
Oriental Cross 2 units win 14/1


Best bets

Haydock

1:30
The Paddy Pie 0.5pt win 7/1
 

I have to admit that I found it quite hard to find any bets today…

The racing is on the borderline, quality-wise - and I struggled to see a compelling angle into any of the races…

I had planned to suggest Debece as a Best bet - but his price had reached the point of minimal value - and then he was withdrawn (maybe just as well !).

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few more speculative ones for the Matrix.

Here's the rationale…


Haydock

I think that Five Star Getaway is the most likely winner of the 1:30 - but there is a fair bit of guesswork concerning how well handicapped he is and at 5/4, I’m prepared to take him on.
The Paddy Pie is the one that interests me most - mainly because I suspect he has been targeted at the race - and is also well handicapped.
I don’t think he’s got loads in hand of his mark, so if Five Star Getway has, he’ll struggle to beat him. However, I’ll be surprised if The Paddy Pie doesn’t run his race and go close.
I also think it is worth covering Zolfo for the Matrix.
He is massively better off with Five Star Getaway, from their recent run at Sandown - and whilst it’s anyones guess whether that will enable him to reverse the form, it’s worth a small risk that it will.

At the prices, I’m happy to oppose the front 3 in the market in the 2:05.
It’s not that I don’t think they can win - I just feel they are all a bit short in the betting.
The trouble is, I’m struggling to choose between 3 of the remaining 4…
The good ground slightly sways me towards Dino Velvet - but there’s not a lot in his price.
On softer ground - and with a likely uncontested lead - I’d be keen on Chti Balko. However, the ground could be a bit quick for him - and Shantou Express is likely to harry him at the front end.
Da Vinci Hand is a speculative one - but he travelled well at Wetherby last time - and it’s interesting that he’s come in for some market support.
I can’t be confident about any of the 3 - but I think it is worth combing them and taking on the 3 at the head of the market.

As I mentioned in the intro, I had ear-marked Debece for the 2:40 - but he is a non runner.
As a consequence, this now looks a weak race - and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised, whatever won.
I was tempted by Mahlermade - but his chance is quite obvious, so I don’t understand why he Is so weak in the market (he is 20+ on the exchanges).
I assume it’s because someone knows he’s not up to winning - though I guess I could be wrong ! (late market support might persuade me to view things differently)
Aside from him, I really haven’t got a view on the race, so am not going to recommend a bet.

I’ve not got much more of an opinion on the 3:15.
Again, it wouldn’t surprise me if almost any of the runners, won - and I’d struggle to even drawn up a short list…
That said, Tel’Art does strike me as massively over-priced.
He is right in the mix, based on his early season form - and the blinkers which have been absent for his 3 most recent runs, return today.
He’s the only runner at the meeting for Ben Pauling - and the only ride on the day, for Keilan Woods.
At 50/1, he has to be worth a small risk for the Matrix…

Whilst I’m prepared to take on the market leaders in the 3:05 (on price grounds), it’s not easy choosing what to oppose them with…
Northern Beau could have been the one - but she has been well backed and her price now looks about right.
Oriental Cross is probably a little over-priced - and therefore worth siding with.
I expected her to be quite a bit bigger in the betting (20/1+) but she has come in for support (which may be a good thing !).
I briefly considered also putting Rose of Aghaboe in the Matrix - but resisted (cue Sods Law !).

Apr 3rd - Preview for Haydock

 It has to be said, tomorrows racing is not the most inspiring !

There are 4 NH cards - and whilst there are a couple of fair handicap hurdles at Fairyhouse, they aren’t races I’d want to be betting in !

There’s a distinct lack of quality at both Carlisle and Newton Abbot, meaning that Haydock hosts the only meeting of interest, from a betting perspective.

Even there, it’s not plain sailing !

The first 6 races on the card, are various finals of the Challenger series - but I can’t see any angle into the opening race - which leaves just 5 of potential interest…

I’ve previewed all 5 - though I’m not expecting to be able to find a bet in them all.
That said, hopefully I’ll be able to find one or two, to keep things ticking along…


Haydock

1:30

The middle distance chase final, is the first race of interest - and it has a strong favourite…

Five Star Getaway was a heavily backed winner on his handicap debut at Wincanton, a month ago - and then followed up at Sandown, 10 days later.
He was hugely impressive on both occasions, appearing to win with any amount in hand.
Needless to say, the handicapper wasn’t impressed, and he’s been hiked up 26lb from his first win (15lb from the latest one).
In truth, it’s impossible to know whether that will stop him.
It’s a big rise - but he really did bolt up - and his current rating of 120, isn’t overly high in absolute terms (he’s still the second lowest rated horse in the race).
The early 6/4 has gone - and he’s now around even money.
That strikes me as the right kind of price…
Zolfo was 25 lengths behind Five Star Getaway last time at Sandown - and is 19lb better off at the weights tomorrow.
In theory, that should make it close between the pair - particularly as Zolfo seems to be gradually re-finding his form.
He’s now 3lb below his last winning mark - so certainly handicapped to run well.
However, the quickening ground may not be ideal for him.
The Paddy Pie is certainly of interest.
He ran third in couple of decent races in the autumn - and gets to run off a mark 6lb lower tomorrow.
That’s because his 2 most recent runs have been disappointing.
However the first was over an inadequate trip; whilst he was well beaten by a progressive horse on his most recent outing at Sedgefield.
First time cheek pieces are certainly an interesting move - and he ran well at this meeting 2 years ago.
Barton Knoll is the final one of major interest.
He won at Doncaster in November - and ran well on his comeback from a break, at Newbury at the beginning of last month.
He’s a horse who needs good ground to show his best, so conditions should be ideal for him.
I suspect he has little in hand of his mark - but I would still expect him to run a good race.

2:05

Only 7 will go to post for the final of the 2 mile handicap hurdle series - but despite that, it’s not an easy race to call…

Vision de Puy has been installed the early favourite, for the Skeltons - but I’m not completely convinced by her…
She looked an unlikely winner for most of the race last time at Stratford - and whilst she must take some credit for managing to grind out a victory, she will do well to follow up off a 5lb higher mark.
Maybe the long Haydock straight will suit her better - but whatever, she makes minimal appeal at an early price of around 9/4..
Shantou Express is the other market leader - and whilst I prefer his chance, he too makes limited appeal at the odds.
He ran well last time, when narrowly beaten at Wetherby - but a 6lb rise for a defeat, is never a good thing.
Xcitations did at least win his most recent race - but he’ll need to defy a mark 10lb higher, in a strong race tomorrow.
He may be up to the job - but it is quite a big ask…
Dino Velvet and Chti Balko have very different profiles to the market leaders.
They are older horses edging down the handicap - and it can be argued that both of them are weighted to win.
Dino Velvet is now 4lb below his last winning mark - and will relish the quickening ground.
He showed definite promise on his most recent run at Newbury - whilst first time cheek pieces are an interesting move.
Chti Balko did us a big favour 4 runs ago, when hacking up over tomorrows course and distance.
3 subsequent disappointing runs, mean that he’s only a pound higher in the ratings tomorrow - and a return to Haydock could easily see him return to form.
Da Vinci Hand finished just in front of Chti Balko on his latest run - when the pair were well behind Pay the Piper (and Shantou Express) at Wetherby.
I doubt the form can be taken literally - but it was still a good run from Da Vinci Hand, who was making his UK debut.
If he can build on that, they he could well out run his dismissive odds.

2:40

Debece is another favourite for the Skeltons, in the staying chase final…

He was a beaten favourite for them last time, when making his stable debut at Sandown.
He tanked his way through the race that day - but didn’t manage to get up the Sandown hill, in the soft ground.
To an extent, his chance tomorrow will depend on whether he has gone forward or backward from that run.
It was his first one since wind surgery - as well as his first for the stable - so it is possible he will have improved for it.
That said, the Skelton horses are usually ready on their stable debuts - particularly when the cash is down !
I suspect the market will tell the tale with him…
In truth, this doesn’t looks an overly strong race.
Defuture is Bright is the second favourite - but he was a touch fortunate to win last time at Fakenham.
He’s only been raised 2lb for his efforts - but he really didn’t deserve much more than that !
Potentially of more interest, is Mahlermade.
He was a well beaten third in that race - but half a mile from home, looked to be going just as well as the winner.
He won this race 2 years ago, off a 9 pound higher mark.
He has been generally out of form since, but the tongue tie is reapplied tomorrow - and if that has the desired effect, he is clearly handicapped to go very close.
Many of the others can be given half chances - but equally, it is hard to make a really solid case for any of them.

3:15

This is another race, where it’s hard to make a particularly compelling case for any of the runners…

Small Present is the early favourite on the back of his last time out win at Doncaster.
He won quite well that day - despite the relatively narrow margin of victory - and a 6lb rise for his efforts looks fair enough.
He’s got a progressive profile - and should be well suited by tomorrows test.
There’s not a lot to dislike about him - and he does appear to be the one to beat.
The next 3 in the market, all contested the same race at Newbury, on their most recent outing.
Regarding Ruth won that contest; with Iwilldoit second and Colonial Dreams, third.
It’s possible to argue a case for each of the 3 coming out on top this time.
The revised weights suggest it should be close - and I certainly wouldn’t have a strong view on which one will win their private battle.
Republican is one who could be of interest - if it weren’t for his suspect stamina.
He travelled really strongly at Ascot last time - but failed to get home.
That race was over 3 miles (the same as tomorrow) - and all of his form is over half a mile less.
He could be one for an IR play - but it wouldn’t be as easy to back him to come home in front.
Tel’Art is of some interest.
He appears to regressing - but he’s only 7, so shouldn’t be !
On his runs at Cheltenham and Kempton in November, he holds quite a few of tomorrows rivals; whilst the reapplication of blinkers may well see him up his game.

3:50

The Bay Birch has bounced back to form in her last 3 races and it’s no surprise to see her heading the market for this race.
She had Kapga de Lily well behind, when winning at Leicester on her penultimate outing - and she should confirm that form on just 4lb worse terms.
The issue she is likely to face tomorrow, is that she has a big weight to carry - and must concede the best part of 2 stone to some of her rivals.
Whether she will be up to that, only time will tell…
Molly Carew is another who has recently bounced back to form.
She won at Taunton in January - and then again, at Newcastle last month.
As a result, she has risen 11lb in the ratings and she will do well to confirm Taunton form with Oriental Cross.
That one finished under 5 lengths behind her that day - but will reoppose on 14lb better terms, which really should be more than enough to reverse the form…
Northern Beau is likely to go from the front and could get an uncontested lead.
She's been in fair form - and is now on a mark 3lb lower than when last successful.
There’s no reason why she shouldn’t run well.
Rose of Aghaboe should also run well.
She’s a strong travelling mare, who is likely to benefit if Northern Beau blazes from the front.
She beat Lucca Lady at Warwick in February - and I would expect that form to be upheld at the revised weights.
She again ran well at the same track last time, when failing to get home over a much longer trip.
The drop back in distance tomorrow should help - particularly if the race is run at a good gallop.