Apr 5th - Preview for Fairyhouse & Plumpton

 It’s Irish Grand National day tomorrow - and 5 of the Fairyhouse races will be shown live on ITV.

However, there is no way I’ll be suggesting any bets in the first 2 of them, so I’ve restricted the preview to the other 3 (the Grand National, plus 2 graded races).

I don’t expect there to be any issues suggesting bets for the big race - but based on today, the other 2 might be a bit trickier (and that’s assuming I can find something suitable !).

Here any my early thoughts on the main races on the card…


Fairyhouse

3:50

Even under his penalty, Beacon Edge very much looks the one to beat in this - on the back of his fine fourth last time, in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham.
I expected him to run well that day - and he certainly did.
In fact, it could be argued that he was the second best horse in the race - with his stamina not quite getting him up the hill.
He cuts back half a mile in trip tomorrow - and on quicker ground - but I think he will be fine with that.
He has good form over 2m4f - including a close third to Honeysuckle - and he definitely looks the one to beat.
The Bosses Oscar also ran well at Cheltenham - when runner up in the Pertemps final.
Again, that was over 3 miles - and I’m not quite so sure about him over half a mile less.
He might get away with it - but he has looked an improved horse, since being stepped up in trip.
French Dynamite beat The Bosses Oscar over 2m4f last season - and at the revised weights, The Bosses Oscar should have the edge.
However, 2m4f is French Dynamite’s optimum trip, so I doubt there will be much between the pair.
Stormy Island is the final one of interest, on her return to Willie Mullins.
She was trained by him last season - and at the time, rated 153.
She switched to Paul Nichols at the start of this season and was sent over fences. However that didn’t work out (she’s a relatively small mare) - and she also disappointed on 2 subsequent runs over hurdles.
She’ll need to bounce back to her best - but she may just do that.
Certainly, if she does, then receiving weight from all of her rivals - and over her ideal trip - she could be tough to beat.

4:20

Fakir D’oudaries has been installed a short priced favourite for this - and it’s easy enough to understand why…
He ran a huge race in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, when chasing home Allaho - and based on that run, is very much the one to beat.
In fairness, his claims aren’t based solely on one run.
He also ran very well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Chacun Pour Soi - and he finished second to Put the Kettle on, in last years Arkle.
There is a bit of a theme to his form (seconditis !) - but I don’t think there is anything ungenuine about him.
My bigger concern is that he had such a hard race at Cheltenham, it may have left a mark.
If it hasn’t then he is definitely the one to beat - but I couldn’t back him at 5/4, with that doubt hanging over him…
Battleoverdoyen and Easy Game look his biggest rivals.
They clashed at Down Royal in October - and despite Easy Game being sent off an odds on favourite, Battleoverdoyen came home a comfortable winner.
There looked to be no fluke about the result - but Battleoverdoyen has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races and now has plenty to prove.
I suspect the key to him, is being fresh and running on good ground - and on the back of a near 2 month break, he gets ticks in both of those boxes tomorrow.
 If he does bounce back to the Down Royal form, then even a peak form Fakir will have his work cut out to beat him.
Easy Game will also need to bounce back to form, as he too has been disappointing in his 2 runs since Down Royal (and arguably, was a little disappointing that day).
Again, good ground and being fresh, should help him - and if he turns up in peak form, he too should run a very big race.
It’ll be a little surprising if the winner comes from outside the 3 mentioned - but if it does, then Sizing Pottsie could be the one.
He looked very good, when winning at Fairyhouse in December - but has disappointed on 3 subsequent starts.
It was interesting to note that Jessie Harrington had 3 of winners today - and this is the time of year when she tends to really find some form.
Sizing Pottsie will need to improve if he is to trouble the main protagonists - but it’s far from impossible that he will do just that.

5:00

Whenever I look at a race like this (a valuable handicap chase), the first thing I do, is look for young, unexposed horses, who are capable of improving.
Time after time, such horses win these kind of races - but for this particular race, it’s a futile exercise !

No less than 22 of the 30 runners, are 8 or younger.
NH horses are generally considered to be at their peak at 9 - so the vast majority of the field are still improving.
Around half of the runners are still novices - which is a truly remarkable situation !

Connections have clearly wised up to the fact that you need a horse with at least half a stone in hand to win a race of this nature - and that’s far more likely to happen with a young, improver.

As a consequence, drawing up a short list isn’t quite as easy as normal - but I’ve still given it a go…

Top of the list has to be Latest Exhibition.
He’s finished runner up to Monkfish on his 2 most recent starts - and even off a mark of 153, if those runs are taken literally, he is well handicapped.
He has stamina to burn - and top weight may not stop him from winning.
Augusta Gold is the next on the list, on her first run for Willie Mullins.
Previously trained by Mags Mullins, she already has form which would give her a chance - and it’s fair to assume that the stable switch won’t have set her back !
Run While Fred finished runner up in the Thystes on his most recent start.
That was behind stablemate Coco Beach - and he re-opposes tomorrow on 10lb better terms.
That should be sufficient to reverse a 4 lengths beating - and Jack Kennedy in the saddle suggests he is the stables main hope.
Robin de Carlow beat Put the Kettle On, on his most recent outing - and based on that run, is thrown in off a mark of 138.
however, he’s not been seen for 18 months - and is unproven over the trip.
On the flip side, he’s trained by Willie Mullins and will be ridden by Rachael Blackmore…
Sempo also looks well handicapped - based on his sixth in last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival.
He’s not had much joy over fences this season - but has been campaigned over shorter distances.
Stepped back up in trip tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a much improved performance.
Espanito Bello should have beaten Coko Beach last time at Navan - and provided he jumps a bit better tomorrow, I would expect him to reverse the form, on 3lb better terms.
I would also expect Brace Yourself to reverse Porterstown form with Court Maid, on the back of a 10lb turnaround in the weights.
With such strength in depth at the head of the market, it seems a bit futile to try and find a few interesting outsiders.
That said, I do think there are at least a couple worthy of attention…
Discordantly ran well at Cheltenham - and with the Jessie Harrington yard back in form, he looks quite interesting, off a 2lb lower mark. Whilst Opposites Attract is well weighted with Latest Exhibition, on their meeting at Punchestown in October - if you can take that form line literally.

Suffice to say, this is not an easy race to solve !!

Plumpton

There’s a really nice class 2 handicap taking place at Plumpton (the Sussex Champion chase).

It’s an 8 runner handicap chase - so the perfect race for me.

I don’t know how the market will be looking just after 10:00 - but if it’s sufficiently robust, I may well issue my second ever tip for Plumpton (I’ll be very impressed if anyone can remember the other one !)

3:55

This is a really tight looking handicap chase - just the way I like them !
Pistol Whipped heads the market - and whilst there is no disputing his talent, his attitude can leave something to be desired.
He looked sure to win on his penultimate outing at Kempton - before deciding not to go through with his effort,.
If he’s to win today, then I suspect Nico will have to leave his challenge very late..
Solomon Grey represents the Skeltons - and he looks a more solid proposition.
He ran third in the summer plate at Uttoxeter in July - and then won at Uttoxeter in August.
He then wasn’t seen until running at Hereford last month. That will probably have blown away the cobwebs - and back on his favoured good ground, I would expect him to go very well.
Dr Sanderson should also go well.
He won over today course and distance in October - before disappointing at Doncaster, the following month.
He had a pipe open on the AW in February - so should be ready to do himself justice today.
Not a Role Model returns to fences, having disappointed over hurdles last time: whilst Mellow Ben has endured a series of tough races, and could possibly do with a break.
Neither strike me as the likely winner.
The Unit has more of a chance.
He’s closely matched with Doctor Sanderson on running at Doncaster - whilst his third to Espoire De Teillee at Warwick on his penultimate outing, is good form.
The Flying Sofa represents the Moores - and they always have to be feared at Plumpton; whilst Imperial Presence is the class horse in the field.
That said, he has to carry 12st7lb - and successfully doing that, will take a massive effort.