Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Fairyhouse
2:50
Master McShee 5 units win 11/2
3:20
Atlantic Fairy 5 units win 9/2
5:00
Franco de Port 5 units win 15/2
Cedarwood Road 2 units win 14/1
Best bets
Fairyhouse
2:50
Master McShee 0.5pt win 11/2
3:20
Atlantic Fairy 0.5pt win 9/2
5:00
Franco de Port 0.5pt win 15/2
It’s never easy tipping early in Irish races.
They don’t get much bigger than todays (two grade 1s and a grade 2) - but even at 10:00 the markets were incredibly fragile.
Obviously there is nothing I can do about it - and hopefully you were all sensible in terms of the prices you took.
As always, I do think the prices quoted were reasonable and whilst all 3 horses immediately shortened in price, I would expect them to drift back out again, as the off times approach.
It is simply a case of supply and demand - and me tipping in the morning, creates a demand the market can’t match.
Anyway, here’s the thinking behind the suggested bets…
Fairyhouse
I narrowed the 2:50 down to three - and at the available prices, Master McShee has to be a bet…
I’m not surprised he’s the outsider of the trio: he comes from a relatively small yard and he bled last time - those facts will put off plenty !
However, his form is arguably the best in the race and at 5/1+, he has to be a bet.
Echoes in Rain could find the race playing out against her (in terms of pace), meaning that Thedevilscoachman is the most likely danger.
However, he’s a 7/4 shot - and I don’t think Master McShee deserves to be 3 times his price.
I was really surprised by the early support for Skyace in the 3:20.
She was 8/1 last night and at that price would have been the bet.
However, she had been backed in to 7/2 this morning - and that’s too short.
As a consequence of her popularity, Atlantic Fairy drifted to 11/2.
The withdrawal of Rosey Hollow saw that price clipped to 9/2 - but I still think that’s too big.
I can see her trying to make all under Rachael - and at the moment, there is no one better at executing such a ride.
I will try to save my stake on Skyace, as she is the biggest danger - but the odds weren’t there to cover her officially.
I like Gentlemansgame best in the 3:50 - but his price has been hammered.
With Grand Paradis a Non runner, Egality Mans looks his biggest danger.
He’s a 7/1 shot with the bookies - but double that on the exchanges !
In truth, he has drifted to such an extent, the suggestion is that he can’t win.
All the same, I’ve had a couple of quid on, just in case !
At the prices, I think Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne can be opposed in the 5:00.
Both have the talent to win - but they also have quirks/frailties.
I would really struggle to back either at a short price.
I’m not a massive fan of Franco de Port - but he is the value at early prices.
He’s officially the best horse in the race and I can see him relishing the step up to 2m4f.
I also think it is worth covering Cedarwood Road for the Matrix.
He will need to improve if he is to win - but I suspect he is capable of doing just that.
I toyed with making him the Best bet, rather than Franco - but Franco is the solid one (I just needed to overcome my prejudice !)
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