Apr 3rd - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Haydock

1:30
The Paddy Pie 5 units win 7/1
Zolfo 1 unit win 33/1

2:05
Dino Velvet 2 units win 11/2
Chti Balko 2 units win 10/1
Da Vinci Hand 1 unit win 25/1

3:15
Tel'Art 2 units win 50/1

3:50
Oriental Cross 2 units win 14/1


Best bets

Haydock

1:30
The Paddy Pie 0.5pt win 7/1
 

I have to admit that I found it quite hard to find any bets today…

The racing is on the borderline, quality-wise - and I struggled to see a compelling angle into any of the races…

I had planned to suggest Debece as a Best bet - but his price had reached the point of minimal value - and then he was withdrawn (maybe just as well !).

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few more speculative ones for the Matrix.

Here's the rationale…


Haydock

I think that Five Star Getaway is the most likely winner of the 1:30 - but there is a fair bit of guesswork concerning how well handicapped he is and at 5/4, I’m prepared to take him on.
The Paddy Pie is the one that interests me most - mainly because I suspect he has been targeted at the race - and is also well handicapped.
I don’t think he’s got loads in hand of his mark, so if Five Star Getway has, he’ll struggle to beat him. However, I’ll be surprised if The Paddy Pie doesn’t run his race and go close.
I also think it is worth covering Zolfo for the Matrix.
He is massively better off with Five Star Getaway, from their recent run at Sandown - and whilst it’s anyones guess whether that will enable him to reverse the form, it’s worth a small risk that it will.

At the prices, I’m happy to oppose the front 3 in the market in the 2:05.
It’s not that I don’t think they can win - I just feel they are all a bit short in the betting.
The trouble is, I’m struggling to choose between 3 of the remaining 4…
The good ground slightly sways me towards Dino Velvet - but there’s not a lot in his price.
On softer ground - and with a likely uncontested lead - I’d be keen on Chti Balko. However, the ground could be a bit quick for him - and Shantou Express is likely to harry him at the front end.
Da Vinci Hand is a speculative one - but he travelled well at Wetherby last time - and it’s interesting that he’s come in for some market support.
I can’t be confident about any of the 3 - but I think it is worth combing them and taking on the 3 at the head of the market.

As I mentioned in the intro, I had ear-marked Debece for the 2:40 - but he is a non runner.
As a consequence, this now looks a weak race - and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised, whatever won.
I was tempted by Mahlermade - but his chance is quite obvious, so I don’t understand why he Is so weak in the market (he is 20+ on the exchanges).
I assume it’s because someone knows he’s not up to winning - though I guess I could be wrong ! (late market support might persuade me to view things differently)
Aside from him, I really haven’t got a view on the race, so am not going to recommend a bet.

I’ve not got much more of an opinion on the 3:15.
Again, it wouldn’t surprise me if almost any of the runners, won - and I’d struggle to even drawn up a short list…
That said, Tel’Art does strike me as massively over-priced.
He is right in the mix, based on his early season form - and the blinkers which have been absent for his 3 most recent runs, return today.
He’s the only runner at the meeting for Ben Pauling - and the only ride on the day, for Keilan Woods.
At 50/1, he has to be worth a small risk for the Matrix…

Whilst I’m prepared to take on the market leaders in the 3:05 (on price grounds), it’s not easy choosing what to oppose them with…
Northern Beau could have been the one - but she has been well backed and her price now looks about right.
Oriental Cross is probably a little over-priced - and therefore worth siding with.
I expected her to be quite a bit bigger in the betting (20/1+) but she has come in for support (which may be a good thing !).
I briefly considered also putting Rose of Aghaboe in the Matrix - but resisted (cue Sods Law !).