It has to be said, tomorrows racing is not the most inspiring !
There
are 4 NH cards - and whilst there are a couple of fair handicap hurdles at
Fairyhouse, they aren’t races I’d want to be betting in !
There’s a
distinct lack of quality at both Carlisle and Newton Abbot, meaning that Haydock
hosts the only meeting of interest, from a betting perspective.
Even
there, it’s not plain sailing !
The first 6 races on the card, are
various finals of the Challenger series - but I can’t see any angle into the
opening race - which leaves just 5 of potential interest…
I’ve previewed
all 5 - though I’m not expecting to be able to find a bet in them all.
That
said, hopefully I’ll be able to find one or two, to keep things ticking along…
Haydock
1:30
The middle distance chase final,
is the first race of interest - and it has a strong favourite…
Five Star
Getaway was a heavily backed winner on his handicap debut at Wincanton, a month
ago - and then followed up at Sandown, 10 days later.
He was hugely
impressive on both occasions, appearing to win with any amount in hand.
Needless to say, the handicapper wasn’t impressed, and he’s been hiked up
26lb from his first win (15lb from the latest one).
In truth, it’s
impossible to know whether that will stop him.
It’s a big rise - but he
really did bolt up - and his current rating of 120, isn’t overly high in
absolute terms (he’s still the second lowest rated horse in the race).
The
early 6/4 has gone - and he’s now around even money.
That strikes me as the
right kind of price…
Zolfo was 25 lengths behind Five Star Getaway last time
at Sandown - and is 19lb better off at the weights tomorrow.
In theory, that
should make it close between the pair - particularly as Zolfo seems to be
gradually re-finding his form.
He’s now 3lb below his last winning mark - so
certainly handicapped to run well.
However, the quickening ground may not be
ideal for him.
The Paddy Pie is certainly of interest.
He ran third in
couple of decent races in the autumn - and gets to run off a mark 6lb lower
tomorrow.
That’s because his 2 most recent runs have been disappointing.
However the first was over an inadequate trip; whilst he was well beaten by
a progressive horse on his most recent outing at Sedgefield.
First time
cheek pieces are certainly an interesting move - and he ran well at this meeting
2 years ago.
Barton Knoll is the final one of major interest.
He won at
Doncaster in November - and ran well on his comeback from a break, at Newbury at
the beginning of last month.
He’s a horse who needs good ground to show his
best, so conditions should be ideal for him.
I suspect he has little in hand
of his mark - but I would still expect him to run a good race.
2:05Only 7 will go to post for the final of the 2 mile
handicap hurdle series - but despite that, it’s not an easy race to call…
Vision de Puy has been installed the early favourite, for the Skeltons -
but I’m not completely convinced by her…
She looked an unlikely winner for
most of the race last time at Stratford - and whilst she must take some credit
for managing to grind out a victory, she will do well to follow up off a 5lb
higher mark.
Maybe the long Haydock straight will suit her better - but
whatever, she makes minimal appeal at an early price of around 9/4..
Shantou
Express is the other market leader - and whilst I prefer his chance, he too
makes limited appeal at the odds.
He ran well last time, when narrowly
beaten at Wetherby - but a 6lb rise for a defeat, is never a good thing.
Xcitations did at least win his most recent race - but he’ll need to defy a
mark 10lb higher, in a strong race tomorrow.
He may be up to the job - but
it is quite a big ask…
Dino Velvet and Chti Balko have very different
profiles to the market leaders.
They are older horses edging down the
handicap - and it can be argued that both of them are weighted to win.
Dino
Velvet is now 4lb below his last winning mark - and will relish the quickening
ground.
He showed definite promise on his most recent run at Newbury -
whilst first time cheek pieces are an interesting move.
Chti Balko did us a
big favour 4 runs ago, when hacking up over tomorrows course and distance.
3
subsequent disappointing runs, mean that he’s only a pound higher in the ratings
tomorrow - and a return to Haydock could easily see him return to form.
Da
Vinci Hand finished just in front of Chti Balko on his latest run - when the
pair were well behind Pay the Piper (and Shantou Express) at Wetherby.
I
doubt the form can be taken literally - but it was still a good run from Da
Vinci Hand, who was making his UK debut.
If he can build on that, they he
could well out run his dismissive odds.
2:40 Debece is
another favourite for the Skeltons, in the staying chase final…
He was a
beaten favourite for them last time, when making his stable debut at Sandown.
He tanked his way through the race that day - but didn’t manage to get up
the Sandown hill, in the soft ground.
To an extent, his chance tomorrow will
depend on whether he has gone forward or backward from that run.
It was his
first one since wind surgery - as well as his first for the stable - so it is
possible he will have improved for it.
That said, the Skelton horses are
usually ready on their stable debuts - particularly when the cash is down !
I suspect the market will tell the tale with him…
In truth, this doesn’t
looks an overly strong race.
Defuture is Bright is the second favourite -
but he was a touch fortunate to win last time at Fakenham.
He’s only been
raised 2lb for his efforts - but he really didn’t deserve much more than that !
Potentially of more interest, is Mahlermade.
He was a well beaten third
in that race - but half a mile from home, looked to be going just as well as the
winner.
He won this race 2 years ago, off a 9 pound higher mark.
He has
been generally out of form since, but the tongue tie is reapplied tomorrow - and
if that has the desired effect, he is clearly handicapped to go very close.
Many of the others can be given half chances - but equally, it is hard to
make a really solid case for any of them.
3:15 This is
another race, where it’s hard to make a particularly compelling case for any of
the runners…
Small Present is the early favourite on the back of his
last time out win at Doncaster.
He won quite well that day - despite the
relatively narrow margin of victory - and a 6lb rise for his efforts looks fair
enough.
He’s got a progressive profile - and should be well suited by
tomorrows test.
There’s not a lot to dislike about him - and he does appear
to be the one to beat.
The next 3 in the market, all contested the same race
at Newbury, on their most recent outing.
Regarding Ruth won that contest;
with Iwilldoit second and Colonial Dreams, third.
It’s possible to argue a
case for each of the 3 coming out on top this time.
The revised weights
suggest it should be close - and I certainly wouldn’t have a strong view on
which one will win their private battle.
Republican is one who could be of
interest - if it weren’t for his suspect stamina.
He travelled really
strongly at Ascot last time - but failed to get home.
That race was over 3
miles (the same as tomorrow) - and all of his form is over half a mile less.
He could be one for an IR play - but it wouldn’t be as easy to back him to
come home in front.
Tel’Art is of some interest.
He appears to
regressing - but he’s only 7, so shouldn’t be !
On his runs at Cheltenham
and Kempton in November, he holds quite a few of tomorrows rivals; whilst the
reapplication of blinkers may well see him up his game.
3:50
The Bay Birch has bounced back to form in her last 3 races and it’s
no surprise to see her heading the market for this race.
She had Kapga de
Lily well behind, when winning at Leicester on her penultimate outing - and she
should confirm that form on just 4lb worse terms.
The issue she is likely to
face tomorrow, is that she has a big weight to carry - and must concede the best
part of 2 stone to some of her rivals.
Whether she will be up to that, only
time will tell…
Molly Carew is another who has recently bounced back to
form.
She won at Taunton in January - and then again, at Newcastle last
month.
As a result, she has risen 11lb in the ratings and she will do well
to confirm Taunton form with Oriental Cross.
That one finished under 5
lengths behind her that day - but will reoppose on 14lb better terms, which
really should be more than enough to reverse the form…
Northern Beau is
likely to go from the front and could get an uncontested lead.
She's been in
fair form - and is now on a mark 3lb lower than when last successful.
There’s no reason why she shouldn’t run well.
Rose of Aghaboe should
also run well.
She’s a strong travelling mare, who is likely to benefit if
Northern Beau blazes from the front.
She beat Lucca Lady at Warwick in
February - and I would expect that form to be upheld at the revised weights.
She again ran well at the same track last time, when failing to get home
over a much longer trip.
The drop back in distance tomorrow should help -
particularly if the race is run at a good gallop.
