Mar 16th - Preview for Cheltenham Day 1

 The 2021 Cheltenham festival will commence tomorrow, in front of empty stands…

However, I believe that ITV intend to add in a crowd soundtrack, so we’ll still hear the ‘Cheltenham roar’ !
A bizarre response to a bizarre situation…

Apparently there was 10mm of rain on Sunday night, which wasn’t expected.
As a result, the ground on the opening day, is now expected to be close to ‘soft’ (as opposed to the ‘good to soft’ that I was anticipating).

There’s been a lot written - and said - about the small fields on the opening day - and it is true that the field sizes for the first 2 races in particular, are smaller than ideal.
That said, most of the main protagonists are taking place, so the quality hasn’t been significantly diluted.

The reality is - as I said in the ‘plans for the week’ email - things have been moving in this direction for a few years.
There are now too many races at the festival - and the best horses are with too few trainers (I believe that Willie Mullins is responsible for 14 of the favourites across the week !)
It’s a recipe for uncompetitive racing - and circumstances have seen it come home to roost this year.

As a result, I doubt there will be too many bets - but it should still be a great spectacle, which I’m sure we’ll all enjoy…


Cheltenham

1:20

It’ll be a bit of a shock, seeing just 8 go to post for the opening race of the meeting.
There are normally nearer 20 runners - even if only 8 have a realistic chance of winning !
I’m not sure that all 8 have a realistic chance of winning tomorrow - as Appreciate It does appear stand a little way above most of his rivals…

He was sent off a short priced favourite for the bumper at last seasons festival - but finished runner up to Ferney Hollow.
It was still a good effort - and he’s seamlessly switched to hurdles this season, winning all 3 of his starts.
The last 2 were in Grade 1 company - and he beat Ballyadam and Irascible on both occasions.
It’s possible that they may get closer to him tomorrow - but there is no obvious reason why either should reverse the form.
Blue Lord also finished behind Appreciate It on the latest occasion - so it’s fair to say that Appreciate It looks to be the best of the Irish !
The English challenge is headed by Metier.
He’s a decent flat horse (rated 88), who is unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles - including in Grade 1 company on his most recent outing.
The issue with him is that his form looks weak, as the horses who have finished behind him have done nothing subsequently to advertise the form.
Whilst that can’t be held against him (he could only beat what was put in front of him), it does nothing to bolster his case.
Soaring Glory is the other big UK hope.
He was an impressive winner of the Betfair hurdle on his most recent start - but that was off a mark of 133.
He had been beaten on his 3 previous starts - and whilst he clearly is improving, he’ll need to run to a mark the mid 150s, if he is to win this race.
That may happen - but it’s far from guaranteed.
The 2 remaining runners - Grumpy Charlie and For Pleasure - both look a bit outclassed.
However, For Pleasure could have a big part to play.
He’s a confirmed front runner - and is likely to give Appreciate It a nice tow into the race.
Without him, Appreciate It would have to make his own running - and that might make him vulnerable.
In summary, whilst Appreciate It isn’t unbeatable - he’s the best horse in the race; holds half the field on form - and is likely to get the race run to suit.
If you can get 6/4, then that strike me as a perfectly fair bet…

1:55

Only 6 will go to post for the Arkle - but that isn’t too surprising, as one of them is Shishkin !

He was an really impressive winner of the Supreme hurdle at last years festival - and since that moment, he’s been a short priced favourite for this race.
He’s run 3 times over fences this season: tackling slightly stronger opposition each time - and winning each race with slightly more authority !
He does look an exceptional talent - and it’s going to take a very good one (or some misfortune) to beat him…
For the last few months, it looked as if he might get to face a very good one, in the shape of Energumene.
He too is unbeaten in 3 chase starts this season - but unfortunately encountered a set back last week and will miss the race…
As a consequence, Allmankind is now Shishkins main rival.
He is also unbeaten in 3 chase starts this season - and has looked better with each outing.
He’s a strong traveller - and a quick aggressive jumper - and connections will doubtless be hoping that these characteristics can put Shishkin under pressure (and force him to make a mistake).
That is possible - but Shishkin isn’t short of pace himself - and his jumping so far, has been flawless.
The doubt with Allmankind, is whether he’ll be able to demonstrate his usual exuberance - and get home.
Cheltenham is a stiff track - and probably not ideally suited to his aggressive running style.
I think there is more chance of him making a mistake himself or not getting home,  than there is of him breaking Shishkin - though time will tell…
Captain Guiness is a good horse - and he should run well.
However, he was no match for Energumene when they clashed at Naas in January - and I suspect he’ll be no match for Shishkin tomorrow…
If there is to be a shock, then Franco de Port is most likely to provide it.
If Allmankind goes off too fast - and Shishkin chases him too hard - then there’s a chance the race could fall apart.
Such a scenario would play into the hands of Franco de Port, who is likely to be ridden out the back, with a view to picking up the pieces late on.
I don’t really expect that to happen - but it’s not an impossible scenario…

2:30

The first handicap of the meeting - and whilst there are 15 runners, it doesn’t look overly competitive…
My short list is composed mainly of the horses at the top of the betting - and even then, one of those stands out…

Happygolucky, seems to have ticks in just about every box.
He’s a sound jumping, improving novice, who won on his most recent start over the course.
He’s been targeted at the race, by connections who have a good recent record with similar types in Cheltenham handicaps.
He finished fourth at last years festival - and should be well suited by the trip and  underfoot conditions.
Clearly, you’re never going to get a certainty in a race such as this - but he’s the right favourite, so it’s just a question of what’s a fair price.
To my mind, 4/1 would seem fair...
Part of the appeal with him, is the relative paucity of opposition.
One for the Team is second favourite - and I get that.
He too is an improving novice - though he doesn’t have any course form.
Maybe he’ll take to Cheltenham like a duck to water - but then again…
Aye Right is more exposed than the 2 ahead of him in the betting - but he’s a good horse, who still seems to be improving.
He’s been placed in a couple of very strong handicaps already this season - and although his mark has risen as a consequence, it’ll be no surprise if he is placed in a third, tomorrow.
Milan Native can definitely be given a chance.
He won the Kim Muir at last seasons festival - and has probably been targeted at this race.
He will need to have improved, if he is to defy an 8lb higher mark in a stronger race - but he may well have done so.
It’s also interesting that he has undergone wind surgery since his latest outing…
Alnadam would be interesting - if the ground is soft.
He’s looked very good on a couple of occasions this season - but both races were run on soft ground.
When he ran on better ground at Kempton over Christmas, he didn’t perform anywhere near as well.
Pym could also be interesting, if he is able to bounce back to the form he showed last season, when beating Imperial Aura.
Taken at face value, that form is very strong - though the runner up almost certainly showed big subsequent improvement.
Vintage Clouds is the final one of possible interest.
He is well handicapped on a mark 1lb lower than when runner up in this race 2 years ago.
A wind op and first time cheek pieces are also both interesting moves.
However, he is now 11 and his best form is on soft ground.
I could certainly see him outrunning his odds - I just don’t know whether I could quite see him winning…

3:05

10 will go to post for the Champion hurdle - and it looks an absolute cracker !

Last years heroine, Epatante, will be defending her crown and if she’s in the same form as 12 months ago, it will take a good one to beat her.
She actually looked like she had improved, when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on her seasonal debut in November - but then disappointed next time, in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton.
That poor run was attributed to a problem with her back - and she has undergone treatment to sort it out.
If that’s been successful then she sets a very high standard.
Part of the appeal with her, is the 7lb sex allowance that she receives from most of the field.
Unfortunately for her, that doesn’t include Honeysuckle - and she looks her biggest rival.
Unbeaten in 10 runs over hurdles, she won the mares race at last seasons festival - and has also taken the last 2 runnings of the Irish champion hurdle.
She was particularly impressive when taking this seasons renewal - and on that form, holds both Abrcadabras and Sharjah.
Sharjah is also held by Epatante, on their running in last years Champion.
He finished 3 lengths adrift that day - but the race was run on soft ground - and he was given a lot to do.
On better ground - and ridden with slightly less restraint, he could go well close tomorrow.
Goshen appears the other main player in the race, after bouncing back to form with an impressive win at Wincanton last time.
He was so unlucky not to win last seasons Triumph hurdle, as he tripped himself up after jumping the final flight, when 10 lengths clear.
He was in the process of destroying a decent field that day - and only very good horses can do that.
On the flip side, he is only 5 years old - and has to give weight to more mature mares.
He really will need to be a world beater, if he’s going to do that…
Silver Streak and Aspire Tower are both good, honest horses.
However both like to lead - and they are likely to have to play second (and third) fiddle to Never so Sleepy.
He only has one way of running - and could spoil things for them both.

I can really see this race being a burn up, with the 3 front runners chased hard by Honeysuckle - and Goshen.
A lot will depend on the pace of the race - as if they go too fast, it will play into the hands of Epatante, Sharjah and Abrcadabras.
However, if the pace isn’t manic, there is a danger that those 3 will find themselves out of their ground.
It’s hard to see Honeysuckle not running her race and going very close - but not as hard to see her beaten.
Which one(s) will beat her, is likely to depend on how the race unfolds…
 
3:40

The third short priced favourite of the day, will line up in this race.

Concertista was a massively impressive winner of the mares novice hurdle at last years festival - and she seems to have improved this season.
She has only run twice in the interim - but has comfortably beaten Minella Melody on both occasions - and she’s a pretty useful mare herself.
On the first occasion, it was by just under 2 lengths - whilst next time, the winning margin was almost 4 times as far.
The suggestion is that Concertista is on a steep upward curve - and if that is the case, she will be very hard to beat tomorrow.
Roksana was a fortunate winner of this race 2 years ago - before being put firmly in her place by Honeysuckle and Benie des Deux, 12 months ago.
She’s taken her form to a new level this season, which is a little odd, considering she is an exposed 9 year old.
However, she has also been running over a longer trip, and it’ll be a bit surprising if she is able to maintain that improvement, dropped back to 2m4f.
Dame de Compagnie and Black Tears fought out the finish to last years Coral cup, with the former coming out on top.
However, Black Tears is 4lb better off tomorrow - and has had a better preparation, so could well be capable of reversing the form.
She has no chance of beating Concertsita, based on their meeting at Leopardstown over Christmas. However Black Tears tends has tended to show improved form in the spring, and I can see her putting up a big performance tomorrow.
Great White Shark and Indefatigable, can both be given chances of at least placing, based on their best form - but both ran disappointingly on their most recent starts.
Of slightly more interest, is Dolcita.
She has 12 lengths to make up on Concertista, based on their run at last years festival - but she has since transferred into the care of Fergal O’Brien.
His stable has been in tremendous form all season and Dolicita ran well on her debut for him at Warwick last moth.
If she can build on that, then she has a chance of making it into the frame at very big odds.

4:15

Unlike the other handicap on the card, this looks an absolute minefield !
Juvenile handicap hurdles are tricky at the best of times, but this one appears nearly impossible with a host of horses looking as if they may have been layed out for it…

Houx Gris is just about favourite, on his second run for Paul Nichols.
His first was in the grade 1 Finale, at Chepstow - and he shaped with real promise, in finishing third.
Based on that run, an opening mark of 128 looks very generous - and it’s certainly hard to see Nassalam confirming the Chepstow form, on almost a stone worse terms.
However, on his final run in France, Houx Gris only just managed to get the better of Homme Public - and he’s 4lb worse off with that rival tomorrow, for a neck beating.
In theory, that means Homme Public should reverse the form.
Ofcourse, a lot of water has subsequently gone under the bridge, but with Homme Public over twice the price of Houx Gris, it is worth bearing in mind…
To add to the confusion, Homme Public himself, is held by Tinnahalla, on their run at Catterick in February - and Tinnahalla is a 33/1 shot !
All this said there is a chance that the UK form, is not the form to concentrate on…
Prior to his debut at Fairyhouse in November, Saint Sam was considered Willie Mullins main contender for the Triumph hurdle.
He got destroyed that day, by Zanahiyr - and again by the same horse at Leopardstown over Christmas - but that one could be an exceptional talent.
Saint Sam was runner up to Quilixios last time in a grade 1 event at the Dublin Racing festival - so dropped down to handicap company tomorrow off a mark of 139, he must have a very good chance.
However, so too must Busselton.
He was 4 lengths behind Saint Sam last time - but will be 4lb better off tomorrow.
On the book, there should be little between the pair - and both with be sporting first time head gear, just to add further uncertainty !
Beyond all those already mentioned, there are at least another half dozen who are of real interest…
Riviere D’etel could easily show improvement on his first run in a handicap for Denise Foster (ex Gordon Elliott); whilst the same could be true for the Dan Skelton trained Cabot Cliffs.
Sage Advise has from that ties in with both Cabot Cliffs and Tinahalla - and is arguably better handicapped than both of them ! (he’s also trained by Dr Newland :) )
Youmdor looked potentially high class on his first 2 starts - before disappointing last time (behind Saint Sam and Busselton); whilst Coltor was very useful on the flat and looks a likely improver on his first run in a handicap.
That said, he shouldn’t beat Curious Bride, based on their form at Punchestown in January - although that one is currently only a reserve !

My feeling is that this could be just a bit too much of a puzzle, to get heavily involved with anything…

4:50

The shape of this race changed significantly, when ante-post favourite, Royal Pagaille wasn’t declared.
He’s running in the Gold cup instead - a positive move for both races…
On the back of his defection, Next Destination was switched to this race.
The original plan was to run him in the 3 mile race (former RSA) - but he would have faced Monkfish there, so this appears a much easier option.
He probably now sets the race standard.
A former dual grade 1 winning hurdle when with Willie Mullins, he is now trained by Paul Nichols and is unbeaten in 2 runs over fences.
The form is nothing special - but we know he had the ability - and both races have suggested that he still retains most of it.
The tip is an unknown - but I can’t see it being an issue - and provided his jumping holds up, he should be tough to beat.
Galvin just edges him at the top of the market.
Previously trained by Gordon Elliott, he switched into he care of Ian Ferguson, when Elliott was suspended.
That can’t be considered a positive move - though happening so close to the race, I doubt it will be too much of a negative.
Galvin has been targeted at this contest for 12 months - since finishing runner up in the novice handicap at last years festival.
That was good form and also proved his ability to handle the course.
Like Next Destination, there is slight question mark over the trip - but again, I doubt it will be an issue.
Escari Ten is next in the betting.
He too was trained by Gordon Elliott - but is now trained by Denise Foster.
His profile is a little more conventional, in that he was a fair hurdler last season - and has looked a fair chaser this season.
It’s easy to see him running well - though he doesn’t look the most obvious winner, to me…
Remastered has a similar profile to Escari Ten.
He too was a decent hurdler last season - but he’s looked much better over fences this campaign.
I was really taken by his attitude at Ascot last time, when he jumped for fun and galloped on relentlessly to beat Demachine.
That’s not top class form - but it is decent.
He seems very much on the improve and I can see tomorrows longer trip being in his favour.
Lord Royal is a difficult one to get a handle on.
He’s looked very good on a couple of occasions - and not so good on a few others !
However the fact he’s the only representatives in the race for Willie Mullins, means he has to be taken very seriously.
Of the outsiders, I could certainly give a chance to Snow Leopardess - if the ground is genuinely soft.
She has stamina to burn - and will be receiving the 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals
The other one of interest at a price, is The Mighty Don.
I doubt he will be good enough to win - but I could certainly see him travelling well in the race.
He strikes me as a good sort for an IR play…

Review of the day - Mar 13th

 The final Saturday before Cheltenham, was unsurprisingly quiet…

There were only a couple of races on the Sandown card, that I ever considered getting involved with - and rain/travel issues, made a mess of one of those !

As a consequence, I ended up issuing a Best bet in just one race - or rather, issuing 2 Best bets in just one race !

I think there has only been one previous race this season, in which I’ve issued multiple Best bets - instead I’ve opted to use the Matrix to provide cover.

In this particular race however, I couldn’t choose between the 2 horses I fancied - and felt sure that if I’d plumped for just one of them, it would have been the wrong one.

Both Farinet and Up the Straight opened up at 10/1 last night.
They were also roughly that price on the exchanges at the off.
Yet at 9:00 this morning, they were both 7/1 - and that is the price I will be recording for the official P&L.

It does neatly show the issue I face every week.
I have to tip profitably, at prices which are around 20% lower than the best prices available (both early and late).

It’s effectively the bookmakers margin on mature markets - and it’s not easy to overcome (believe me !).

Anyway, the race itself, panned out like a dream.

Strategem made a shocking mistake at the first fence - and whilst he nearly interfered with Up the Straight, he didn’t !
For whatever reason - and despite being very well backed - Admiral Barratry decided that he just didn’t fancy it today and was soon tailed off.
No Getaway charged off like a scolded cat - and in deep ground, it always seemed unlikely that he would get home.
Annsam made a race ending mistake at the 11th fence: and favourite Belargus fell at the very next fence.

Meanwhile, Farinet and Up the Straight were both cruising through the race - and jumping the third last, it was apparent that they had the race between them.

Running down to the last, they were 20 lengths clear of the third horse - and it looked to be a case of whoever jumped the fence best, would win.

Up the Straight pinged it and went a couple of lengths clear - but then he started to tire and Farinet kicked in the overdrive.

At the line he was 6 lengths clear of a weary runner up - with nearly 30 lengths back to the third.

I can honestly say that it was probably the least stressful winner I’ve ever tipped !

Whilst I didn’t suggest it, I know that a few of you also had the forecast.
It paid £71 to a pound stake - so well done all of you who took the plunge.

The only other bets on the day, were for the Matrix.

I had hoped to make Highway one o Two a Best bet in the Lanzarote - but he was a non runner.
I therefore suggested 3 small bets for the Matrix - but one of those also didn’t run !
Of the 2 remaining bets, Mack the Man ran well to finish third - but was no match for Langer Dan, who absolutely bolted up.
The other Matrix bet was Malaya - but she was beaten early in the straight and was pulled up.

As for the rest of the card, then there wasn’t a lot to report !

At no point did I consider suggesting any further bets - and I certainly hadn’t considered getting involved with any of the other winners !

Still, the important thing is that one of the Best bets I did suggest, came home in front.

And that’s always a nice way to start Cheltenham week

TVB.  

Mar 13th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Sandown

2:25
Eamon an Cnoic 2 units win 16/1
Malaya 2 units win 10/1
Mack the Man 1 unit win 16/1

3:35
Farinet 5 units win 7/1
Up the Straight 5 units win 7/1


Best bets

Sandown

3:35
Farinet 0.5pt win 7/1
Up the Straight 0.5pt win 7/1

The nature of todays racing meant that there were never going to be many bets.

The quality of racing, effectively limited me to Sandown - and even there, the number of races where I could consider tipping, was small…

I had targeted a couple of the races for Best bets - but there has been overnight rain and as a result, a number of non runners, this morning.

As I mentioned in last nights preview, the going at Sandown already looked a fair bit softer than the official description - so I’m not surprised to see horses being taken out.

Unfortunately, one of the defectors in the big race, was the horse I’d hope too make a Best bet - so I’ m now just covering that race with a limited Matrix.

There are a couple of Best bets though - and in the same race!
Hopefully one of them can come home in front…


Sandown

Whilst I’m not surprised to see Hudson de Grugy a short priced favourite in the opener, I am surprised to see him priced up at 2/5 !
Clearly connections consider him very well handicapped (which he may be).
I have to admit to having a few quid on The Worthy Brat at 13/2 last night - and a few more on at 33/1 this morning !! (before the NRs came out).
Clearly I got it very wrong last night - but even the current 11/1, seems to underestimate him a little.
On the flip side, the weight of money behind the favourite, makes me disinclined to oppose him (officially speaking).

There are far too many unknowns to consider getting seriously involved in the 1:50 race.
I have had a few quid on Patroclus, Captain Morgs, The Mick Preston and Tile Tapper - and I’ll look to to add Karl Philppe, if he reaches 10 on the exchanges.
It’s not a race I want to cover with the Matrix though, as there is just too much guesswork - and the bookmaker prices aren’t good enough.
I’ll just pick off the ones of interest on the exchanges, throughout the morning…

I had intended to make Highway one o Two a Best bet in the 2:25 - but he’s been declared a NR on account of the ground (despite having won on heavy in the past).
To be honest, I’ve no issue with that - if connections don’t think he’ll handle conditions, I’d rather them take him out.
Assuming the ground is going to be very soft, Malaya becomes of interest.
She won the corresponding race 2 years ago - and off a mark 2lb higher.
She hasn’t had optimum conditions for quite some time - but 2 miles in the Sandown mud, is exactly what she wants.
2 miles in the heavy at Sandown will also be perfect for both Eamon an Cnoic and Mack the Man - and they too are worth covering on the Matrix.
I am a little fearful of favourite Natural History.
Gary Moore is keen to say how badly handicapped he is - yet he is very strong in the market !
There is a chance he could be thrown in - but I’m prepared to oppose him at 5/2.

I’ve no idea what will win the 3:00 - but the market seems to think that Rainyday Woman is a good thing.
I suspect that a lot of that is down to the ground - as Paul Nichols has said she will appreciate soft.
I’ve had a few quid on Ucanaver and Marshmallo - but neither were ever going to be official bets.

I like both Farinet and Up the Straight in the 3:35 - and I’ve decided to make them both Best bets !
My original fancy for the race was Farinet.
I thought he ran a very eye catching race last time at Haydock - when he finished strongly under a considerate ride.
If he has progressed that run as I would expect, I think he will be tough to beat this afternoon.
That said, I also like the profile of Up the Straight.
He wasn’t disgraced in grade 1 company last time - and should have no issue with todays conditions.  
Most of the others can be given a chance - and I’m a bit shocked (concerned !) about the market strength of Admiral Barratry (he wouldn’t have featured highly on my short list).
However, dutching Farinet and Up the straight is around a 3/1 shot - and I’m prepared to get involved at those odds.

There’s not a great deal to be said about the 4:10 race.
The market currently says that Debece will win - and if it’s still saying the same at the off, he probably will !
The ground has gone against Cobra de Mai - but he’ll still be worth watching with an eye to the future.
Outside of those 2, I haven't got a particularly strong opinion on any of the runners.

Mar 13th - Preview for Sandown

 With the Cheltenham festival sat on the horizon, it’s tricky maintaining focus on tomorrows racing…

I’ve got half an eye on the 5 day declarations for next week - not to mention all of the breaking news stories !

As a consequence, I can’t really give tomorrows racing my full attention - so my plan is to concentrate solely on Sandown.

It’s a decent card - with a number of interesting races, so I will hopefully be able to find a few bets.

It also helped that they raced there this afternoon, so I was able to assess the ground.
It looked to be riding a fair bit softer than would have been expected based on the official going descriptions - and I assume it will be a similar story tomorrow.

Here’s my initial thoughts on most of the races…


Sandown

1:15

The opening race on the card, is a relatively uninspiring 6 runner juvenile handicap hurdle.

Hudson de Grugy is the early favourite, on his third run over hurdles - and his first  in handicap company.
Ex French, he ran really well on his UK debut at Sandown, early in December, when second to Elham Valley.
That looked reasonable form at the time, even if the winner hasn’t really advertised it subsequently.
Hudson de Grugy followed that up, by wining over tomorrows course and distance, at the beginning of January.
On the back of that, he’s been given an opening handicap mark of 122 - which looks fair.
With Gary Moore tending to target this meeting, he does very much look the one to beat.
Volkovka is the early second favourite.
She is far more experienced than Hudson de Grugy, having already run 6 times over hurdles.
It’s likely that her mark of 119 is about right, so she could be vulnerable to an improver…
The Worthy Bat could possibly improve on what he’s shown so far.
He finished well behind Hudson de Grugy, when the pair clashed in December - but is 7lb better off for just over 10 lengths.
Whether that should be sufficient to reverse the form, is debatable - though conditions will be very different (that race was run on bottom-less ground).
Of more significance, is the application of first time cheek pieces.
The Worthy Bat has looked a bit laboured in his recent races, so if the headgear perks him up, it’s quite feasible that he’ll post an improved effort.
Marta des Mottes is nearly impossible to assess, on her first run in a handicap; whilst State Crown doesn’t look good enough.
However, Global Agreement is moderately interesting off a very low weight - and with Kevin Jones claiming a further 3lb…
He was given a break after 3 quick runs in the autumn - but stayed on strongly in a jumpers bumper at Lingfield 3 weeks ago.
Again, it’s impossible to accurately assess the form - but I suspect he can be given a chance.

1:50

As impossible puzzles go, this is right up there !

18 runners - many of whom are making their handicap debuts - and/or stepping up in trip.
It’s a race where the form book is likely to count for very little.

Despite that, I nearly made an ante-post suggestion for it, earlier in the week !
I was going to offer Tile Tapper, who is making his handicap debut after just 3 runs over hurdles.
He was placed in grade 1 company on his penultimate outing - and whilst he was beaten at odds on last time at Taunton, I suspect that was still a fair effort.
However, he was a general 12/1 shot on Tuesday evening - and I had a feeling that he might be a bigger price today.
And I was right !
He does have a chance - but 12/1 is about right - and this is a race in which it would be very hard to find a Best bet…
The list of potential dangers is very long - in fact, it would be easier listing those who appear not to have much of a chance !
In the spirit of what I aim to do (ie. create short lists), I’ll offer a few more who I think have possibilities:
Karl Philippe is certainly one.
He split Martinhal and Gladiateur Allen on his penultimate run at Exeter - and is just about weighted to come out on top tomorrow (though there shouldn’t be much between the trio).
He was also a little unlucky not to win at Exeter, as an awkward jump at the final flight probably cost him.
The Mick Peston looks the most likely of the 2 Nigel Twiston Davies runners.
He is another, stepping into handicap after 3 runs in novice events.
The form of his penultimate effort at Lingfield, when runner up to subsequent Betfair hurdle fourth, Annual Invictus, looks particularly strong.
Nicky Henderson also run 2 - and whilst Captain Mags beat Annual Invictus at Ascot in October, the fact that Nico de Boinville rides Pactrolus, suggest he is the stables main hope.
Ocean Drifter, Sam Barton and Jeremy Pass are 3 more, who will be making their handicap debuts after 3 runs in novice events.
They all come from big stables - and could literally be anything…
The bottom line is, that this almost has to be a watching race - though I would expect it to be a very informative one (particularly with regard to next season).

2:25

Natural History has been installed a short priced favourite for the Imperial Cup - and whilst that's understandable, I’m not sure I completely agree.
He is rated 101 on the flat, so a rating of 132 over hurdles, suggests he could have around 10lb in hand (assuming he can run to the same level on both codes).
He was also very impressive when wining by 15 lengths last time.
However that was a 5 runner class 3 handicap at Plumpton - so the value of the form is questionable…
I was also a little concerned by the way he negotiated the hurdles - his technique will need to improved if he’s going to be successful in a big field handicap.
Of course it might - and he certainly has a chance - but at 3/1, I couldn’t be interested…
Langer Dan is potentially more interesting, after an eye catching run at Market Rasen last time.
That was on the back of a break - and he finished strongly under minimal encouragement.
It looked as if he had plenty of improvement in him - and Dan Skelton is an excellent target trainer.
Off a mark 5lb lower than when sixth at last years Cheltenham festival, it’s not hard to see him running very well.
I’ve no doubt that Leoncavello has been targeted at the race, on his first hurdles run for David Pipe.
He’s not badly handicapped, on a mark of 143 - but he’s not particularly well handicapped either.
He will need to have improved for the switch of stables (which he may well have done).
Paul Nichols runs 3 in the race, and I like Diego de Charmil best.
He’s well handicapped on his chase form - and not badly handicapped on his hurdles form.
He’s probably vulnerable to an improver - but I would still expect him to run well.
Hasanabad and Highway one o Two both ran at Newbury last weekend, when filling the places behind Miller Bank.
Highway one o Two came out best in their personal battle that day - and off the same weights tomorrow, should confirm the form.
That said, Hasanabad is the lesser exposed of the pair - and was also a very useful flat horse (rated 90). He therefore has the greater scope for improvement.
On the flip side, all of his best form is on good ground (which he probably won’t get).
Hang in There, is potentially very well handicapped - though it would take an act of faith to support him, after 4 disappointing runs this season.
Whilst Mack the Man is also quite well handicapped, running off a mark 2lb lower, than when well fancied for last seasons Betfair hurdle (a race in which he still held a chance, when brought down at the final flight).

3:00

You don’t get many bumpers covered on terrestrial TV - which is just as well, as they are rarely suitable for betting…

That said, I had spotted one of interest in this - however, it was Miss Lamb, and she was withdrawn from the race, earlier this afternoon (maybe just as well - to remove temptation !).

With her out of the race, I’ve very little idea what might win it.
The Paul Nichols trained Rainyday Woman has been installed the early favourite.
She was the comfortable winner of a listed bumper at Huntingdon in December - and that is just about the strongest piece of form on offer.
Whether it will be good enough to see her home in front tomorrow, only time will tell.
Second favourite, is the Nicky Henderson trained Tweed Skirt.
She was the easy winner of a Wetherby bumper in January - though the value of that form is limited.
She owes her prominence in the market to her connections…
There are quite a few of interest at bigger prices - accepting that there is a lot of guesswork involved.
Anthony Honeyball tends to do well with his bumper horses - and he runs 2: Precious and Ucanaver.
Ucanaver is the more interesting of the pair, having been sent off 6/4 for the mares bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.
She finished well beaten that day - but has been off the track for 4 months since - and returns having undergone wind surgery.
She is clearly held in high regard - so if the operation has had the desired effect, she could easily outrun dismissive odds.
Marshmallo is the other one that particularly interests me.
She was a good winner of a fair contest at Doncaster, just over a month ago.
It’s impossible to judge the merit of the form - but she showed a good attitude that day, so I’m a little surprised she can be backed at 33/1.

3:35

The victory of Grey Diamond at Sandown this afternoon, advertised the form of Belargus - and on the back of that, he has been backed into favourite for this.
He was already quite high on my short list, even before that boost - though whether I would want to play at around 4/1 in such a competitive race, is a different matter.
He was impressive last time - but he hadn’t won in 7 previous attempts over fences.
Maybe he’s just a slow learner - or maybe he was well suited to the 2 miles on heavy ground.
2m4f on quicker ground tomorrow, will be a different test - so if it’s down to the latter, he could be in trouble.
This is also a much stronger race, with most of the runners arriving in good form and on upward curves.
No Getaway was impressive when winning over course and distance last time - but he will also find life tougher tomorrow, off a 10lb higher mark.
He’ll also have very different underfoot conditions to contend with…
It’s a similar story with Admiral Barratry and High up in the Air.
They’ve both won races recently - but face tougher opposition tomorrow - and from higher marks.
Farinet is interesting.
He caught my eye last time at Haydock on his UK debut,
He travelled nicely that day - until getting outpaced when the tempo of the race increased.
He was staying on again at the end - suggesting he would benefit from a step up in trip.
However, he’s back over 2m4f tomorrow - and on quicker ground - which is not exactly what I had in mind !
Maybe my initial reading was wrong - and Venetias stable does continue in good form.
Up the Straight is the final one of significant interest.
He pushed Umbrigado close at Fontwell in January - and that looks good form, as the winner followed up last weekend in the feature race at Newbury.
His was tailed off on his most recent outing - but that was in the grade 1 Scilly isles chase. The race was also run on atrocious ground, so it can probably be ignored.
If Up the Straight wasn’t flattered by the Fontwell run, then he has to go close.

4:10

This looks an impossible race to call - but it should be a fascinating watch, regardless…
The reason it is impossible to play in, is the presence of Debece.
He will be making his debut for Dan Skelton - and is potentially thrown in, if he can rediscover his old form…
Admittedly, his best  form was over hurdles - but he also shaped with distinct promise  in half dozen races over fences.
So much so, that 3 runs ago, he was sent off 9/2 fav for the class 1 handicap run at Aintree on Grand National day.
He was racing off a mark of 141 that day - whilst tomorrow he will be running off a mark of 130 (and in a race, 3 classes lower !).
Suffice to say, if Dan Skelton has found the key to him, he could well bolt up…
Even if you ignore him, it’s not an easy race to solve, as Cobra de Mai makes his stable debut for Caroline Bailey.
He’s moved from Dan Skeltons yard - and whilst that can’t really be considered a positive, Cobra de Mai is a particularly quirky character !
He does need quick ground - so that would be a concern - and hand on heart, I suspect this will be a prep run for a spring campaign.
However, if the change of scenery has perked him up, then he is handicapped to win.
With a straighter bat, Ecalir de Guye looks the one of most interest.
He won well at Huntingdon - and again ran creditably in defeat last time, behind Eclaire Surf.
That was over tomorrows course and distance - and in a very similar race.
He looked the winner that day jumping the last, but didn’t quite manage to get home.
Tomorrows better ground should be a help for him. 

Review of the day - Mar 6th

 As I’m sure most of you picked up (!), I got a little frustrated today, by the fact that many of the horses of interest, were either priced up too short on the opening show  - or were quickly backed in to the point where I felt they represented no value.

Tipping just after 9:00, I have little option other than to accept the best of the crumbs on offer - which is not really how I want to be handling things !

Ultimately, I settled on 4 Best bets for the afternoon.

2 of them were original fancies - which I chose to stick with, despite their prices dropping: whilst the other 2, were ones I switched to, on account of them offering some value this morning…

Do Your Job was the first Best bet to run - and despite his price, he was my strongest fancy on the day.
I was pretty sure he would run well - and hopeful that he might win - and he nearly did.

He tracked the leader, Lucky One, throughout the race - before attacking on the run to the second last.
Unfortunately, he got that flight wrong - thereby passing the initiative to My Drogo.
Do your Job tried to battle back - but My Drogo had a bit too much class for him.

It was a really big effort - even if it ultimately counted for nothing !

I’d also covered Any News for the Matrix - but he unseated at the fourth last, before the race had properly got underway….

Born Survivor was the next Best bet to run.
He was the other one that I’d stuck with, despite him being backed early - but he didn’t run particularly well.
He always appeared to travelling a bit too keenly - so I wasn’t massively surprised when he tired up the home straight.

In addition, I covered Grand Sancey for the Matrix - but he ran poorly.
He was quite a big drifter pre-race, which maybe gave the game away for him - but whatever, I expected better…

Sebastapol was the third Best bet on the day - and I was hoping he would bounce back from a disappointing run, having undergone wind surgery.

He travelled really nicely to the second last - but was beaten as soon as pressure was applied.
It looked as if he was struggling to breath - suggesting the wind op had not had the desired effect (which can happen).
He would have to be treated with caution going forward, until he shows a return to form.

Chidswell was the final Best bet of the day, in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster.

My angle with him, was to take on the favourite Canelo - who I felt was vulnerable.

I was right on that score - but I picked the wrong one to oppose him with.
Chidswell ran a fair race - but he wasn’t sufficiently well handicapped. Unlike Red Infantry, who bounced back to form, under an attacking front running ride.

There was just one other bet on the day - Night Edition, for the Matrix.

I would have liked to be with The Shunter in the race - but he was never at a price where I could suggest him.

Night Edition ran really well - but just found one too good.
I don’t think I need to say which one it was !!

In the days other races of interest, I did well to resist chasing down Aso (and I did consider it !) as he was no match for Cloth Cap.
The winner put in a near faultless display and is now a short priced favourite for the Grand National.
Whilst at Newbury, it was a similar story with Present Man.
I would have made him a Best bet if 6/1 had been available this morning - but it wasn’t.
However, come the off, he could be backed at 9/1 !
Maybe that told a story, because it really was a ridiculously big price - and he ran as if something wasn’t right.
Finally, at Doncaster, Philippa Sue unseated when still in with half a chance in the mares hurdle: whilst both Zoffee and Ballywood made race ending mistakes in the 2 mile chase…

All in all, a day probably best forgotten.

TVB.  

Mar 6th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Newbury

1:50
Born Survivor 5 units win 14/1
Grand Sancey 2 units win 11/2

Doncaster

3:30
Chidswell 5 units win 13/2

Kelso

1:30
Do your Job 5 units win 16/1
Any News 3 units win 7/2

2:05
Sebastapol 5 units win 15/2

3:15
Night Exhibition 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Newbury

1:50
Born Survivor 0.5pt win 14/1

Doncaster

3:30
Chidswell 0.5pt win 13/2

Kelso

1:30
Do your Job 0.5pt win 16/1


2:05
Sebastapol 0.5pt win 15/2

Market fragility, is often an issue for me - and it always seem worse, on days like today, when there are no really big races…

I guess it makes sense - most of the markets for today races were only formed yesterday afternoon.
The various industry tipsters quickly identify the best bets - and the prices get cut.

Given time, the market would doubtless stabilise, and the prices of the less popular horses would drift.
However, there’s insufficient time for that to happen before issue my suggested bets, just after 9:00.

As a consequence, we get the worst of both worlds: too late for the early value - but too early for the drifts.

Suffice to say, I was again scrambling around at 9:00, trying to figure out which horses still represented ‘value’.
I had to change a few of my intended bets, simply because they had been backed to prices below what I would consider acceptable.

I’m sure some of them will drift back out - but that’ll happen too late for them to be official bets.
However, it shouldn’t be too late for them to be picked up on the Live thread…


Newbury

I did toy with making Present Man a Best bet in the 1:15 race.
I put him up ante-post at 6/1, on Monday - and despite the race holding up better than I expected, I would still make him a bet at that price.
However, whilst he was 6/1 on the exchanges at the time of issue, the best bookmaker price was 5/1.
That strikes me as about right, in a race where there are a few dangers - with Shantou Village (who is now the race favourite), the biggest danger of all…

I had hoped for a slightly bigger price on Born Survivor (at least 16/1), as this is a very strong race, but I still think it is worth taking a chance on him in the 1:50.
Simply, he is handicapped to win (and win well !) if he retains his old ability.
It’s hard to know whether that’s the case, as he’s not faced a suitable test for quite some time - but he does today.
Grand Sancey strikes me as the most likely of the market leaders.
I managed to back him at 8 on the exchange, which is a good price.
He’s worth saving for the Matrix, at anything above 5/1…


Doncaster

I didn’t spend too much time on the 2:20 race, once it became clear that 20/1 on Philippa Sue wasn’t going to be achievable.
In truth, I was guessing on her, so it was easy enough to let go.
Nothing else in the race held any appeal (at the prices).

I was quite disappointed not to be able to get involved with the 2:55 race, as I would have been quite happy to support either Ballywood or Zoffee.
I slightly favoured the former - and hoped to be able to get at least 9/2 (which was easily available last night). However, he was 3/1 at 9:00 this morning.
Zoffee was bigger, at 9/2, but I would have wanted a point more to get involved with him.
Maybe I was looking for too much in the prices - whatever, with split loyalties and minimal margin, it became a watching race…

Canelo just looks too obvious in the 3:30 - so much so, that I felt obliged to take him on !
The problem with him, is that for all he stands out, I suspect he’s not particularly well handicapped - and he’s also being targeted at the Grand National.
In short, he’s opposable - if you can find the right one…
Chidswell has excellent course form - and whilst he is getting on a bit, I suspect he will have been primed for the race.
At 13/2, he’s worth a risk to upset the fav in a relatively uncompetitive race…


Kelso

I was a little surprised to see Do your Job put in at 16/1 on the opening show for the 1:30 race - and even more shocked when he drifted to 25/1 !
In fairness, it is quite strong race - but I reckon he’s got as good a chance as most.
His form puts him in the mix - whilst his last run can be ignored, due to the ground.
A wind op is interesting - as is the fact that Brendan Powell has gone up to Kelso, for just the one ride (the easy option would have been to book Tom Scudamore).
He’s a value play, at any double figure price…
My Drogo is too short in the betting - and Any News strikes me a just about the most likely race winner.
He is worth covering on the Matrix…

As I mentioned in the preview, I like Mega Yeats best in the 2:05 - but there is plenty of guesswork and at 11/4, the layers are having a laugh !
I’ll be surprised if the winner comes from outside the top 4 in the betting, and Sebastapol looks the value call at 8/1.
He has top weight - but is a big horse, so should cope with that.
Whilst a wind op for a horse who has seemed to struggle a bit getting home, looks an understandable move…

Possibly my biggest disappointment today, is that I was not able to suggest Aso in the 2:40.
He was a 3/1 shot last night, on account of concerns about him staying the trip - and I would have been very keen to take a risk at that price.
However, he was backed in to 9/4 this morning, and I see minimal margin in that price…
I suspect he will drift again, close to the off, and at close to 3/1, I’ll be suggesting him on the Live thread.
Officially speaking however, he’s not a bet…

I think The Shunter will win the 3:15 - but I’m not prepared to make him a bet at 5/2.
In truth, he’s the kind of horse that will always be difficult to tip, because if connections fancy him, he will be backed, so you’ll not be able to get a price.
If he were to win today - and then win at Cheltenham - he would pocket a £100K bonus.
I suspect Emmit Mullins will have his sights firmly fixed on that prize !
The worry with him, is the trip. There is a chance he might find it too short - so you couldn’t chase down the price.
Instead, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Night Edition, for the Matrix.
He’s not shown anything in 2 runs this season, but has become well handicapped as a result.
He’ll need to bounce back this afternoon, but that could well happen…

Mar 6th - Preview for Newbury, Doncaster & Kelso

 There are no particularly big races tomorrow - but there are 3 decent meetings and lots of reasonable races for me to preview.

It will help enormously, that the weather is stable, so I should have a good feel for the state of the ground (helped further by the fact that they also race today, at both Newbury and Doncaster).

I’ve no doubt that getting prices in the morning, will be as tricky as ever (I’ve already seen a few cut, that I was interested in !) - but there’s not a lot I can do about that.
Hopefully I’ll still be able to find some ‘value’ bets, when I come to issue…


Newbury

1:30

I suggested Present Man for this race on Monday, on the midweek ante-post thread in the forum - and it’s little surprise that he’s been backed into favouritism.
I do think he’s the most likely race winner - however the race has stood up a bit better than I expected, and he’s no certainty.
Most of the 10 runners can be given some kind of a chance - and the early 4/1 on Present Man strikes me as probably a point shorter than it should be.
Maybe the price will drift a little - it’s likely to depend on how bullish Paul Nichols is, in his Betfair column…
Shantou Village looks to be the biggest danger to Present Man - and he too has been backed.
There was only a couple of lengths between the pair, when they clashed at Chepstow, in October.
Shantou Village will be 2lb better off tomorrow - which means that there should be virtually nothing between them.
However, he will also have Millie Wonnacott in the saddle and her 7lb claim could prove decisive (she didn’t ride him at Chepstow).
Singlefarmpayment was the other one that interested me in the 5 day declarations - and he has also made the final decs.
He is potentially very well handicapped - but he’s always had a bit of an issue about winning - and it doesn’t seem to be improving with age !
He may drop in one day, but this race is probably a bit too strong for him to do that...
Sir Ivan is the ‘form’ horse in the race, having finished third in the 2020 series final, at Sandown in early January.
However, that resulted in a 1lb rating rise, which won’t help his chance.
The Kings Writ and Colorado Doc, are interesting as the two 10 year olds in the race (an age group which tends to do well in such races).
However, the ground may have gone against The Kings Writ; whilst Colorado Doc seems to be developing some undesirable wayward tendencies.
He would be of interest if he could recapture the form which saw him win at Plumpton at the back end of last season - but he’s run as if something isn’t right, in his 3 outings this campaign.

1:50

This is probably the most competitive race of the day - and plenty can be given a chance…

Grand Sancy has been installed the early favourite - and it’s not hard to see why…
A grade 2 winner over hurdles, he’s only run 6 times over fences but has appeared capable of reaching the same level over the bigger obstacles.
He made his chasing debut in a grade 1 event last season (and finished third) and has run in three other graded events, placing in them all.
The twice he has run outside graded company over fences, he’s won - though admittedly, both were small field affairs.
Paul Nichols has a ridiculous record in this race, having trained 9 out of 15 race winners - and whilst I would have preferred to see Harry Cobden in the the saddle, he can’t be in 2 places at once (he’s at Kelso) and Bryony isn’t a bad substitute.
It’s likely to take a very well handicapped horse to beat him…
Killer Clown could be well handicapped - it’s hard to say.
He dotted up at Kempton over Christmas - but has been raised 15lb for that win (which is a lot !).
That said, it looked a fair race - and the form has been boosted a few times since.
I suspect his new mark of 138 does under-estimate him - I’m just not sure by how much…
Umbrigado has been in good form recently - but that’s been on softer ground than he will encounter tomorrow.
Whether he will be as effective on a sounder surface, remains to be seen…
Another Crick ran well at Warwick last month, on his return to chasing.
He had been very progressive in the 2018-19 season, but that was his first run over fences for 2 years.
The suggestion was that he retains all of his old ability - and if that is the case, then he should run well.
From a pure handicapping perspective, then Born Survivor is the most interesting horse in the race.
He won a good quality handicap chase at Ayr, 2 years ago, off a mark 4lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
On the back of that win, he was rated 152 - but will run off a mark of 138 tomorrow.
He’s not shown a lot this season (which is why his mark has been dropped), however, most of his runs have been over 2 miles.
He’s stepped back up in trip tomorrow - and from his reduced mark, should have a real chance.
As with Grand Sancey, his usual jockey (Harry Skelton) is elsewhere, meaning that Bridget Andrews takes over in the saddle.  
The Russian Doyen is another one of potential interest, on his first run for Jeremy Scott.
Has was previously trained by Colin Tizzard - but that stable has really struggled to find any form this season, so the switch could easily have a positive effect.
If it does, then the horse is sufficiently well handicapped to go close..
Gala Ball isn’t as well handicapped - but 2m4f on good ground at Newbury, are his perfect conditions.
He got precisely those conditions in November, and split Clondaw Castle and Sully Doc AA.
That’s good form - and Gala Ball is now rated 3lb lower.
I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t seriously outrun his dismissive odds…

Doncaster

2:20

Of all tomorrows races, this one probably holds least appeal from a betting perspective - primarily because it’s very difficult to get a proper handle on many of the runners…

Wynn House has been installed a short priced favourite - which is a little surprising, considering she is only the third best horse in the race, on official ratings.
However, the official ratings probably don’t count for a lot in this particular contest - and she has reasonable form, along with a progressive profile.
It says much for the quality of the opposition, that she is just 2/1 in the early market - and whilst I couldn’t back her at that price, it’s not easy finding one with which to oppose her…
Second favourite, Go Millie Go, is held by Wynn House on Bangor form, from September.
She has won twice since then - but there is no obvious reason why she should gain her revenge, as she had an experience advantage over Wynn House, when they met.
On official ratings, Raynas World is the best horse in the race - however she is far more exposed than most of her rivals and her best form is on much softer ground than she is likely to encounter tomorrow.
Most of the others don’t really look good enough to win a race of this nature.
The likes of Alpha Carinea, Airgead Suas and Global Harmony, strike me as mid range handicappers who are hoping to hit lucky and get a bit of ‘black type’ (mares placed in listed races, such as this, get their names typed in bold in the studbook - to draw attention to them).  
The one exception is Philippa Sue.
She is making her hurdling debut - and also her stable debut, for Graeme McPhearson.
Previously trained in Ireland, she was placed in 4 decent bumpers - and it’s very interesting that her new connections have chosen to start off in this race, as opposed to an ordinary maiden.
In fairness, I can understand why (it’s a weak race !) - and there must be a chance that their bold move will be rewarded with at least a placed effort…

2:55

Rikoboy is an improving young horse, who looked a bit unlucky to bump into one at Musselburgh last time.
He travelled really strongly through the race that day, but just couldn’t get the better of the relatively unexposed Ruinous.
That’s probably good form - but it was a class lower than tomorrows race - and Rikoboy was raised 6lb for coming second.
Getaway Trump and Zoffee are quite closely matched on their form at Warwick in October.
Getaway Trump come out on top that day - but it was only by a length. He’s also a little better off at the weights - but Zoffee has the greater scope for improvement.
There is also a chance that Zoffee will get an uncontested lead tomorrow.
He likes to go from the front, so his chance was compromised last time, when he found himself in a race full of front runners.
He was well beaten that day - but has been given plenty of time to recover from his exertions.
He’s a horse who prefers good ground - so underfoot conditions tomorrow, should be perfect for him.
Ballywood also needs good ground.
He disappointed in a couple of Cheltenham handicaps in the autumn, but was then given a few months off and underwent wind surgery.
He reappeared 3 weeks ago in a jumpers bumper at Kempton and ran with some credit.
If that’s brought him on, then he should also run well.

3:30 

My initial feeling, on studying this race, was that it is a penalty kick for Canelo.
However, £27K handicaps are rarely that simple !
In fairness, it’s not drawn the strongest of line ups, with just the 7 declared.
Furthermore, Canelo is the only young, progressive runner in the field - and the only one who’s in any kind of form !
On the flip side, it can be argued that he couldn’t win last time, off a mark just 1lb higher - and this race is mainly being used as a prep for the Grand National.
All this said, if he doesn’t win the race, then I’m not sure what will be capable of doing so !
Chidswell is the second fav and a case can be made for him.

He’s 3lb lower than when second in last years Sky Bet chase, over tomorrows course and distance. He will also appreciate the drying ground.
However, he is now 12 - so could easily be in decline…
Chef D’Oevre is the other one who may be capable of shaking up the favourite.
It’s 2 years since he was at his best - when third in the Grand National trial at Haydock.
That race was run on good ground - and he ran off a mark 3lb higher than he will race off tomorrow.
He’s had a wind op since he last ran - his second one in recent months. Whilst the re-application of cheek pieces does suggest that connections are clutching at straws a bit.
In fairness, I don’t blame them. He won’t find many easier opportunities to snare a big pot, so it’s understandable they are throwing the kitchen sink at him !
It’s hard to make much of a case for the others - so I think this will come down to how hard fit Canelo is.
Anything more than 90% and he is likely to win…

Kelso

1:30

This is a cracking little race.

My Drogo has been installed the early favourite - but I’m not sure I agree with that…
He was impressive when beating Llandinabo Lad at Ascot - and in Dan Skelton, is trained by a man who will have him in top shape for the contest.
However, on official ratings, he’s 3lb inferior to both Any News and Lucky Man - and yet has to conceded them both 5lb.
Now ratings aren’t the be all and end all, in these kind of races.
Most of the runners are progressive/very progressive, so the winner is likely to post a PB.
That said, I do think that My Drogo will have his work cut out, to beat Any News, in particular…
He was an impressive winner at Bangor in October- and looked like following up at Cheltenham in November, until being run out of things close home, by Make me a Believer.
There was no shame in that, as he was trying to give the winner 6lb - and he went on to frank the form with a good run at Warwick.
Lucky One was over 10 lengths back in third that day, and it’s hard to make a case for him reversing the form (even though he has subsequently won well, at Wincanton).
Bareback Jack is a hard one to quantify, after wins in 3 novice hurdles.
He will be taking a big step up in class tomorrow - but may be up to it.
By contrast, Do Your Job is taking a step down in class, having contested the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle on his most recent run.
He wasn’t up to the job that day - however, the race was run in desperate ground - and he was sent off at just 5/1.
That suggests he is well thought of - and if he improves for the better ground, or for a subsequent wind op, then he could easily outrun his price.

2:05

The Paul Nichols trained Flash Collonges makes his handicap debut in this and it’s not too surprising that he’s been installed the early favourite.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 133 is fair - but Nichols seems to be happy enough with it.
I’ve little doubt that the market close to the off, will advise more accurately…
Mega Yeats was probably the one that interested me most - on her second run for Mark Walford.
She was very capable when trained by Ruth Jefferson - and ran well on her debut for Walford, when second in a jumpers bumper at Kempton.
That was her first run for over a year, so she is likely to have come on for it.
From a handicapping perspective, she is now on a very nice mark - 7lb lower than when mid division behind Dame de Compagnie, at Cheltenham, just over a year ago.
The issue however, is likely to be the price. An opening quote of 8/1 has already  halved - and that doesn’t leave much margin for error.
Sail Away could be interesting on his UK debut for Dan Skleton - though again, the market is likely to offer the best advice.
Sebastapol could also be of interest - if a wind op has had the desired effect.
He was a good winner at Musselburgh, just over a year ago - and whilst he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs, he now finds himself on a mark just 2lb higher.
I’d be pretty sure that makes him well handicapped - if he is able to show his best.
The trip is a slight concern, as he’s only proven over the minimum. That said, when he was performing at his best, it looked as if he would benefit from an extra half mile.

2:40

There may only be 6 runners in this - and just 5 with a realistic chance - but it’s still a fascinating race…

Based on official ratings, Aso is very much the one to beat.
He is the joint highest rated horse in the race, with a rating of 158 - yet receives weight from all of his main rivals.
He also showed himself to be in top form, with a fine second to Two for Gold, on his most recent outing.
The issue with him, is the trip.
All of his best form is over 2m4f - and the few times he’s tried 3 miles, he’s appeared not to stay.
He may stay a little further now that he’s older - but that’s likely to be offset by him being a little slower !
If he is to win, then Charlie Deutch will need to produce a master class in conservative riding.
If he doesn’t get home, then Two for Gold looks the one most likely to take advantage.
He beat Aso by a neck at Warwick - but will be 9lb worse off tomorrow.
In theory, he has little chance of confirming the form - unless David Bass makes it a real stamina test and breaks Aso.
However, unlike Aso, Two for GOld is likely to improve for the increase in distance.
Ofcourse this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Definitly Red has the same official rating as Aso - and won the race last year.
However, he is now 12 - and probably not quite as good as he used to be.
Lake View Lad could certainly be given a chance, if his rating of 157 could be believed.
He was pushed up to 162, on the back of beating Santini and Frodon in a farcical race at Aintree - however that was quickly adjusted down by 5lb - and I suspect he is still rated a few pounds higher than his ability warrants.
Cloth Cap is the final one worthy of consideration.
He was a spectacular winner of the Ladbroke trophy in November - and is now favourite for the Grand National.
However, I’m pretty sure that Aintree is the only race that matters for him - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is fully wound up for this contest.
Even if he is, he will have his work cut out on official ratings - accepting that trip/ground should be ideal for him…

3:15

It’s hard to look beyond The Shunter in this - despite the limited appeal of a 2/1 shot in a 14 runner handicap !
He was a really impressive winner of the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenhams November meeting - and I find it quite surprising that he will get to run off a mark just 7lb higher tomorrow.
That was a stronger race than tomorrows - and I don’t think an additional 7lb would have stopped him from winning.
He’s only run once subsequently, when a staying third over fences at the Dublin Racing festival.
I suspect he could have won that race as well - given a more judicious ride - but whatever, it should ensure he is spot on tomorrow.
Faivoir has been installed second favourite, on the back of his win in a graded novice race at Haydock.
That was a good effort - but I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to concede 8lb to The Shunter.
Outside of him, potential dangers look thin on the ground…
Hunters Call has been running well all season and finished fourth in the Greatwood. However he is only 5lb better off with The Shunter for a beating of over 6 lengths - and that shouldn’t be sufficient to reverse the form.
Tommys Oscar and Night Edition could both be more dangerous - though there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The former has only run 4 times over hurdles, so certainly has plenty of scope for improvement. However, whether he is up to this class, remains to be seen.
Night Edition finished runner up in the Boodles at last years Cheltenham festival - and will run from a mark 4lb lower tomorrow.
That makes him potentially very interesting - however, he has shown nothing in 2 runs this season, so will need to rediscover his form.