With the Cheltenham festival sat on the horizon, it’s tricky maintaining focus on tomorrows racing…
I’ve got half an eye on the 5 day declarations for next week - not to mention all of the breaking news stories !
As a consequence, I can’t really give tomorrows racing my full attention - so my plan is to concentrate solely on Sandown.
It’s a decent card - with a number of interesting races, so I will hopefully be able to find a few bets.
It also helped that they raced there this afternoon, so I was able to assess the ground.
It looked to be riding a fair bit softer than would have been expected based on the official going descriptions - and I assume it will be a similar story tomorrow.
Here’s my initial thoughts on most of the races…
Sandown
1:15
The opening race on the card, is a relatively uninspiring 6 runner juvenile handicap hurdle.
Hudson de Grugy is the early favourite, on his third run over hurdles - and his first in handicap company.
Ex French, he ran really well on his UK debut at Sandown, early in December, when second to Elham Valley.
That looked reasonable form at the time, even if the winner hasn’t really advertised it subsequently.
Hudson de Grugy followed that up, by wining over tomorrows course and distance, at the beginning of January.
On the back of that, he’s been given an opening handicap mark of 122 - which looks fair.
With Gary Moore tending to target this meeting, he does very much look the one to beat.
Volkovka is the early second favourite.
She is far more experienced than Hudson de Grugy, having already run 6 times over hurdles.
It’s likely that her mark of 119 is about right, so she could be vulnerable to an improver…
The Worthy Bat could possibly improve on what he’s shown so far.
He finished well behind Hudson de Grugy, when the pair clashed in December - but is 7lb better off for just over 10 lengths.
Whether that should be sufficient to reverse the form, is debatable - though conditions will be very different (that race was run on bottom-less ground).
Of more significance, is the application of first time cheek pieces.
The Worthy Bat has looked a bit laboured in his recent races, so if the headgear perks him up, it’s quite feasible that he’ll post an improved effort.
Marta des Mottes is nearly impossible to assess, on her first run in a handicap; whilst State Crown doesn’t look good enough.
However, Global Agreement is moderately interesting off a very low weight - and with Kevin Jones claiming a further 3lb…
He was given a break after 3 quick runs in the autumn - but stayed on strongly in a jumpers bumper at Lingfield 3 weeks ago.
Again, it’s impossible to accurately assess the form - but I suspect he can be given a chance.
1:50
As impossible puzzles go, this is right up there !
18 runners - many of whom are making their handicap debuts - and/or stepping up in trip.
It’s a race where the form book is likely to count for very little.
Despite that, I nearly made an ante-post suggestion for it, earlier in the week !
I was going to offer Tile Tapper, who is making his handicap debut after just 3 runs over hurdles.
He was placed in grade 1 company on his penultimate outing - and whilst he was beaten at odds on last time at Taunton, I suspect that was still a fair effort.
However, he was a general 12/1 shot on Tuesday evening - and I had a feeling that he might be a bigger price today.
And I was right !
He does have a chance - but 12/1 is about right - and this is a race in which it would be very hard to find a Best bet…
The list of potential dangers is very long - in fact, it would be easier listing those who appear not to have much of a chance !
In the spirit of what I aim to do (ie. create short lists), I’ll offer a few more who I think have possibilities:
Karl Philippe is certainly one.
He split Martinhal and Gladiateur Allen on his penultimate run at Exeter - and is just about weighted to come out on top tomorrow (though there shouldn’t be much between the trio).
He was also a little unlucky not to win at Exeter, as an awkward jump at the final flight probably cost him.
The Mick Peston looks the most likely of the 2 Nigel Twiston Davies runners.
He is another, stepping into handicap after 3 runs in novice events.
The form of his penultimate effort at Lingfield, when runner up to subsequent Betfair hurdle fourth, Annual Invictus, looks particularly strong.
Nicky Henderson also run 2 - and whilst Captain Mags beat Annual Invictus at Ascot in October, the fact that Nico de Boinville rides Pactrolus, suggest he is the stables main hope.
Ocean Drifter, Sam Barton and Jeremy Pass are 3 more, who will be making their handicap debuts after 3 runs in novice events.
They all come from big stables - and could literally be anything…
The bottom line is, that this almost has to be a watching race - though I would expect it to be a very informative one (particularly with regard to next season).
2:25
Natural History has been installed a short priced favourite for the Imperial Cup - and whilst that's understandable, I’m not sure I completely agree.
He is rated 101 on the flat, so a rating of 132 over hurdles, suggests he could have around 10lb in hand (assuming he can run to the same level on both codes).
He was also very impressive when wining by 15 lengths last time.
However that was a 5 runner class 3 handicap at Plumpton - so the value of the form is questionable…
I was also a little concerned by the way he negotiated the hurdles - his technique will need to improved if he’s going to be successful in a big field handicap.
Of course it might - and he certainly has a chance - but at 3/1, I couldn’t be interested…
Langer Dan is potentially more interesting, after an eye catching run at Market Rasen last time.
That was on the back of a break - and he finished strongly under minimal encouragement.
It looked as if he had plenty of improvement in him - and Dan Skelton is an excellent target trainer.
Off a mark 5lb lower than when sixth at last years Cheltenham festival, it’s not hard to see him running very well.
I’ve no doubt that Leoncavello has been targeted at the race, on his first hurdles run for David Pipe.
He’s not badly handicapped, on a mark of 143 - but he’s not particularly well handicapped either.
He will need to have improved for the switch of stables (which he may well have done).
Paul Nichols runs 3 in the race, and I like Diego de Charmil best.
He’s well handicapped on his chase form - and not badly handicapped on his hurdles form.
He’s probably vulnerable to an improver - but I would still expect him to run well.
Hasanabad and Highway one o Two both ran at Newbury last weekend, when filling the places behind Miller Bank.
Highway one o Two came out best in their personal battle that day - and off the same weights tomorrow, should confirm the form.
That said, Hasanabad is the lesser exposed of the pair - and was also a very useful flat horse (rated 90). He therefore has the greater scope for improvement.
On the flip side, all of his best form is on good ground (which he probably won’t get).
Hang in There, is potentially very well handicapped - though it would take an act of faith to support him, after 4 disappointing runs this season.
Whilst Mack the Man is also quite well handicapped, running off a mark 2lb lower, than when well fancied for last seasons Betfair hurdle (a race in which he still held a chance, when brought down at the final flight).
3:00
You don’t get many bumpers covered on terrestrial TV - which is just as well, as they are rarely suitable for betting…
That said, I had spotted one of interest in this - however, it was Miss Lamb, and she was withdrawn from the race, earlier this afternoon (maybe just as well - to remove temptation !).
With her out of the race, I’ve very little idea what might win it.
The Paul Nichols trained Rainyday Woman has been installed the early favourite.
She was the comfortable winner of a listed bumper at Huntingdon in December - and that is just about the strongest piece of form on offer.
Whether it will be good enough to see her home in front tomorrow, only time will tell.
Second favourite, is the Nicky Henderson trained Tweed Skirt.
She was the easy winner of a Wetherby bumper in January - though the value of that form is limited.
She owes her prominence in the market to her connections…
There are quite a few of interest at bigger prices - accepting that there is a lot of guesswork involved.
Anthony Honeyball tends to do well with his bumper horses - and he runs 2: Precious and Ucanaver.
Ucanaver is the more interesting of the pair, having been sent off 6/4 for the mares bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.
She finished well beaten that day - but has been off the track for 4 months since - and returns having undergone wind surgery.
She is clearly held in high regard - so if the operation has had the desired effect, she could easily outrun dismissive odds.
Marshmallo is the other one that particularly interests me.
She was a good winner of a fair contest at Doncaster, just over a month ago.
It’s impossible to judge the merit of the form - but she showed a good attitude that day, so I’m a little surprised she can be backed at 33/1.
3:35
The victory of Grey Diamond at Sandown this afternoon, advertised the form of Belargus - and on the back of that, he has been backed into favourite for this.
He was already quite high on my short list, even before that boost - though whether I would want to play at around 4/1 in such a competitive race, is a different matter.
He was impressive last time - but he hadn’t won in 7 previous attempts over fences.
Maybe he’s just a slow learner - or maybe he was well suited to the 2 miles on heavy ground.
2m4f on quicker ground tomorrow, will be a different test - so if it’s down to the latter, he could be in trouble.
This is also a much stronger race, with most of the runners arriving in good form and on upward curves.
No Getaway was impressive when winning over course and distance last time - but he will also find life tougher tomorrow, off a 10lb higher mark.
He’ll also have very different underfoot conditions to contend with…
It’s a similar story with Admiral Barratry and High up in the Air.
They’ve both won races recently - but face tougher opposition tomorrow - and from higher marks.
Farinet is interesting.
He caught my eye last time at Haydock on his UK debut,
He travelled nicely that day - until getting outpaced when the tempo of the race increased.
He was staying on again at the end - suggesting he would benefit from a step up in trip.
However, he’s back over 2m4f tomorrow - and on quicker ground - which is not exactly what I had in mind !
Maybe my initial reading was wrong - and Venetias stable does continue in good form.
Up the Straight is the final one of significant interest.
He pushed Umbrigado close at Fontwell in January - and that looks good form, as the winner followed up last weekend in the feature race at Newbury.
His was tailed off on his most recent outing - but that was in the grade 1 Scilly isles chase. The race was also run on atrocious ground, so it can probably be ignored.
If Up the Straight wasn’t flattered by the Fontwell run, then he has to go close.
4:10
This looks an impossible race to call - but it should be a fascinating watch, regardless…
The reason it is impossible to play in, is the presence of Debece.
He will be making his debut for Dan Skelton - and is potentially thrown in, if he can rediscover his old form…
Admittedly, his best form was over hurdles - but he also shaped with distinct promise in half dozen races over fences.
So much so, that 3 runs ago, he was sent off 9/2 fav for the class 1 handicap run at Aintree on Grand National day.
He was racing off a mark of 141 that day - whilst tomorrow he will be running off a mark of 130 (and in a race, 3 classes lower !).
Suffice to say, if Dan Skelton has found the key to him, he could well bolt up…
Even if you ignore him, it’s not an easy race to solve, as Cobra de Mai makes his stable debut for Caroline Bailey.
He’s moved from Dan Skeltons yard - and whilst that can’t really be considered a positive, Cobra de Mai is a particularly quirky character !
He does need quick ground - so that would be a concern - and hand on heart, I suspect this will be a prep run for a spring campaign.
However, if the change of scenery has perked him up, then he is handicapped to win.
With a straighter bat, Ecalir de Guye looks the one of most interest.
He won well at Huntingdon - and again ran creditably in defeat last time, behind Eclaire Surf.
That was over tomorrows course and distance - and in a very similar race.
He looked the winner that day jumping the last, but didn’t quite manage to get home.
Tomorrows better ground should be a help for him.
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