Sunday, 21 March 2021

Mar 13th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets


Matrix bets

Sandown

2:25
Eamon an Cnoic 2 units win 16/1
Malaya 2 units win 10/1
Mack the Man 1 unit win 16/1

3:35
Farinet 5 units win 7/1
Up the Straight 5 units win 7/1


Best bets

Sandown

3:35
Farinet 0.5pt win 7/1
Up the Straight 0.5pt win 7/1



The nature of todays racing meant that there were never going to be many bets.

The quality of racing, effectively limited me to Sandown - and even there, the number of races where I could consider tipping, was small…

I had targeted a couple of the races for Best bets - but there has been overnight rain and as a result, a number of non runners, this morning.

As I mentioned in last nights preview, the going at Sandown already looked a fair bit softer than the official description - so I’m not surprised to see horses being taken out.

Unfortunately, one of the defectors in the big race, was the horse I’d hope too make a Best bet - so I’ m now just covering that race with a limited Matrix.

There are a couple of Best bets though - and in the same race!
Hopefully one of them can come home in front…


Sandown

Whilst I’m not surprised to see Hudson de Grugy a short priced favourite in the opener, I am surprised to see him priced up at 2/5 !
Clearly connections consider him very well handicapped (which he may be).
I have to admit to having a few quid on The Worthy Brat at 13/2 last night - and a few more on at 33/1 this morning !! (before the NRs came out).
Clearly I got it very wrong last night - but even the current 11/1, seems to underestimate him a little.
On the flip side, the weight of money behind the favourite, makes me disinclined to oppose him (officially speaking).

There are far too many unknowns to consider getting seriously involved in the 1:50 race.
I have had a few quid on Patroclus, Captain Morgs, The Mick Preston and Tile Tapper - and I’ll look to to add Karl Philppe, if he reaches 10 on the exchanges.
It’s not a race I want to cover with the Matrix though, as there is just too much guesswork - and the bookmaker prices aren’t good enough.
I’ll just pick off the ones of interest on the exchanges, throughout the morning…

I had intended to make Highway one o Two a Best bet in the 2:25 - but he’s been declared a NR on account of the ground (despite having won on heavy in the past).
To be honest, I’ve no issue with that - if connections don’t think he’ll handle conditions, I’d rather them take him out.
Assuming the ground is going to be very soft, Malaya becomes of interest.
She won the corresponding race 2 years ago - and off a mark 2lb higher.
She hasn’t had optimum conditions for quite some time - but 2 miles in the Sandown mud, is exactly what she wants.
2 miles in the heavy at Sandown will also be perfect for both Eamon an Cnoic and Mack the Man - and they too are worth covering on the Matrix.
I am a little fearful of favourite Natural History.
Gary Moore is keen to say how badly handicapped he is - yet he is very strong in the market !
There is a chance he could be thrown in - but I’m prepared to oppose him at 5/2.

I’ve no idea what will win the 3:00 - but the market seems to think that Rainyday Woman is a good thing.
I suspect that a lot of that is down to the ground - as Paul Nichols has said she will appreciate soft.
I’ve had a few quid on Ucanaver and Marshmallo - but neither were ever going to be official bets.

I like both Farinet and Up the Straight in the 3:35 - and I’ve decided to make them both Best bets !
My original fancy for the race was Farinet.
I thought he ran a very eye catching race last time at Haydock - when he finished strongly under a considerate ride.
If he has progressed that run as I would expect, I think he will be tough to beat this afternoon.
That said, I also like the profile of Up the Straight.
He wasn’t disgraced in grade 1 company last time - and should have no issue with todays conditions.  
Most of the others can be given a chance - and I’m a bit shocked (concerned !) about the market strength of Admiral Barratry (he wouldn’t have featured highly on my short list).
However, dutching Farinet and Up the straight is around a 3/1 shot - and I’m prepared to get involved at those odds.

There’s not a great deal to be said about the 4:10 race.
The market currently says that Debece will win - and if it’s still saying the same at the off, he probably will !
The ground has gone against Cobra de Mai - but he’ll still be worth watching with an eye to the future.
Outside of those 2, I haven't got a particularly strong opinion on any of the runners.

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