There are no particularly big races tomorrow - but there are 3 decent meetings
and lots of reasonable races for me to preview.
It will help enormously,
that the weather is stable, so I should have a good feel for the state of the
ground (helped further by the fact that they also race today, at both Newbury
and Doncaster).
I’ve no doubt that getting prices in the morning, will
be as tricky as ever (I’ve already seen a few cut, that I was interested in !) -
but there’s not a lot I can do about that.
Hopefully I’ll still be able to
find some ‘value’ bets, when I come to issue…
Newbury
1:30 I suggested Present Man for this race on Monday, on the
midweek ante-post thread in the forum - and it’s little surprise that he’s been
backed into favouritism.
I do think he’s the most likely race winner -
however the race has stood up a bit better than I expected, and he’s no
certainty.
Most of the 10 runners can be given some kind of a chance - and
the early 4/1 on Present Man strikes me as probably a point shorter than it
should be.
Maybe the price will drift a little - it’s likely to depend on
how bullish Paul Nichols is, in his Betfair column…
Shantou Village looks to
be the biggest danger to Present Man - and he too has been backed.
There was
only a couple of lengths between the pair, when they clashed at Chepstow, in
October.
Shantou Village will be 2lb better off tomorrow - which means that
there should be virtually nothing between them.
However, he will also have
Millie Wonnacott in the saddle and her 7lb claim could prove decisive (she
didn’t ride him at Chepstow).
Singlefarmpayment was the other one that
interested me in the 5 day declarations - and he has also made the final decs.
He is potentially very well handicapped - but he’s always had a bit of an
issue about winning - and it doesn’t seem to be improving with age !
He may
drop in one day, but this race is probably a bit too strong for him to do
that...
Sir Ivan is the ‘form’ horse in the race, having finished third in
the 2020 series final, at Sandown in early January.
However, that resulted
in a 1lb rating rise, which won’t help his chance.
The Kings Writ and
Colorado Doc, are interesting as the two 10 year olds in the race (an age group
which tends to do well in such races).
However, the ground may have gone
against The Kings Writ; whilst Colorado Doc seems to be developing some
undesirable wayward tendencies.
He would be of interest if he could
recapture the form which saw him win at Plumpton at the back end of last season
- but he’s run as if something isn’t right, in his 3 outings this campaign.
1:50 This is probably the most competitive race of the
day - and plenty can be given a chance…
Grand Sancy has been installed
the early favourite - and it’s not hard to see why…
A grade 2 winner over
hurdles, he’s only run 6 times over fences but has appeared capable of reaching
the same level over the bigger obstacles.
He made his chasing debut in a
grade 1 event last season (and finished third) and has run in three other graded
events, placing in them all.
The twice he has run outside graded company
over fences, he’s won - though admittedly, both were small field affairs.
Paul Nichols has a ridiculous record in this race, having trained 9 out of
15 race winners - and whilst I would have preferred to see Harry Cobden in the
the saddle, he can’t be in 2 places at once (he’s at Kelso) and Bryony isn’t a
bad substitute.
It’s likely to take a very well handicapped horse to beat
him…
Killer Clown could be well handicapped - it’s hard to say.
He
dotted up at Kempton over Christmas - but has been raised 15lb for that win
(which is a lot !).
That said, it looked a fair race - and the form has been
boosted a few times since.
I suspect his new mark of 138 does under-estimate
him - I’m just not sure by how much…
Umbrigado has been in good form
recently - but that’s been on softer ground than he will encounter tomorrow.
Whether he will be as effective on a sounder surface, remains to be seen…
Another Crick ran well at Warwick last month, on his return to chasing.
He had been very progressive in the 2018-19 season, but that was his first
run over fences for 2 years.
The suggestion was that he retains all of his
old ability - and if that is the case, then he should run well.
From a pure
handicapping perspective, then Born Survivor is the most interesting horse in
the race.
He won a good quality handicap chase at Ayr, 2 years ago, off a
mark 4lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
On the back of that win, he was
rated 152 - but will run off a mark of 138 tomorrow.
He’s not shown a lot
this season (which is why his mark has been dropped), however, most of his runs
have been over 2 miles.
He’s stepped back up in trip tomorrow - and from his
reduced mark, should have a real chance.
As with Grand Sancey, his usual
jockey (Harry Skelton) is elsewhere, meaning that Bridget Andrews takes over in
the saddle.
The Russian Doyen is another one of potential interest, on his
first run for Jeremy Scott.
Has was previously trained by Colin Tizzard -
but that stable has really struggled to find any form this season, so the switch
could easily have a positive effect.
If it does, then the horse is
sufficiently well handicapped to go close..
Gala Ball isn’t as well
handicapped - but 2m4f on good ground at Newbury, are his perfect conditions.
He got precisely those conditions in November, and split Clondaw Castle and
Sully Doc AA.
That’s good form - and Gala Ball is now rated 3lb lower.
I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t seriously outrun his dismissive odds…
Doncaster
2:20
Of all tomorrows races, this one probably
holds least appeal from a betting perspective - primarily because it’s very
difficult to get a proper handle on many of the runners…
Wynn House has
been installed a short priced favourite - which is a little surprising,
considering she is only the third best horse in the race, on official ratings.
However, the official ratings probably don’t count for a lot in this
particular contest - and she has reasonable form, along with a progressive
profile.
It says much for the quality of the opposition, that she is just
2/1 in the early market - and whilst I couldn’t back her at that price, it’s not
easy finding one with which to oppose her…
Second favourite, Go Millie Go,
is held by Wynn House on Bangor form, from September.
She has won twice
since then - but there is no obvious reason why she should gain her revenge, as
she had an experience advantage over Wynn House, when they met.
On official
ratings, Raynas World is the best horse in the race - however she is far more
exposed than most of her rivals and her best form is on much softer ground than
she is likely to encounter tomorrow.
Most of the others don’t really look
good enough to win a race of this nature.
The likes of Alpha Carinea,
Airgead Suas and Global Harmony, strike me as mid range handicappers who are
hoping to hit lucky and get a bit of ‘black type’ (mares placed in listed races,
such as this, get their names typed in bold in the studbook - to draw attention
to them).
The one exception is Philippa Sue.
She is making her
hurdling debut - and also her stable debut, for Graeme McPhearson.
Previously trained in Ireland, she was placed in 4 decent bumpers - and it’s
very interesting that her new connections have chosen to start off in this race,
as opposed to an ordinary maiden.
In fairness, I can understand why (it’s a
weak race !) - and there must be a chance that their bold move will be rewarded
with at least a placed effort…
2:55
Rikoboy is an
improving young horse, who looked a bit unlucky to bump into one at Musselburgh
last time.
He travelled really strongly through the race that day, but just
couldn’t get the better of the relatively unexposed Ruinous.
That’s probably
good form - but it was a class lower than tomorrows race - and Rikoboy was
raised 6lb for coming second.
Getaway Trump and Zoffee are quite closely
matched on their form at Warwick in October.
Getaway Trump come out on top
that day - but it was only by a length. He’s also a little better off at the
weights - but Zoffee has the greater scope for improvement.
There is also a
chance that Zoffee will get an uncontested lead tomorrow.
He likes to go
from the front, so his chance was compromised last time, when he found himself
in a race full of front runners.
He was well beaten that day - but has been
given plenty of time to recover from his exertions.
He’s a horse who prefers
good ground - so underfoot conditions tomorrow, should be perfect for him.
Ballywood also needs good ground.
He disappointed in a couple of
Cheltenham handicaps in the autumn, but was then given a few months off and
underwent wind surgery.
He reappeared 3 weeks ago in a jumpers bumper at
Kempton and ran with some credit.
If that’s brought him on, then he should
also run well.
3:30
My initial feeling, on studying this
race, was that it is a penalty kick for Canelo.
However, £27K handicaps are
rarely that simple !
In fairness, it’s not drawn the strongest of line ups,
with just the 7 declared.
Furthermore, Canelo is the only young, progressive
runner in the field - and the only one who’s in any kind of form !
On the
flip side, it can be argued that he couldn’t win last time, off a mark just 1lb
higher - and this race is mainly being used as a prep for the Grand National.
All this said, if he doesn’t win the race, then I’m not sure what will be
capable of doing so !
Chidswell is the second fav and a case can be made for
him.
He’s 3lb lower than when second in last years Sky Bet chase, over
tomorrows course and distance. He will also appreciate the drying ground.
However, he is now 12 - so could easily be in decline…
Chef D’Oevre is
the other one who may be capable of shaking up the favourite.
It’s 2 years
since he was at his best - when third in the Grand National trial at Haydock.
That race was run on good ground - and he ran off a mark 3lb higher than he
will race off tomorrow.
He’s had a wind op since he last ran - his second
one in recent months. Whilst the re-application of cheek pieces does suggest
that connections are clutching at straws a bit.
In fairness, I don’t blame
them. He won’t find many easier opportunities to snare a big pot, so it’s
understandable they are throwing the kitchen sink at him !
It’s hard to make
much of a case for the others - so I think this will come down to how hard fit
Canelo is.
Anything more than 90% and he is likely to win…
Kelso
1:30
This is a cracking little race.
My
Drogo has been installed the early favourite - but I’m not sure I agree with
that…
He was impressive when beating Llandinabo Lad at Ascot - and in Dan
Skelton, is trained by a man who will have him in top shape for the contest.
However, on official ratings, he’s 3lb inferior to both Any News and Lucky
Man - and yet has to conceded them both 5lb.
Now ratings aren’t the be all
and end all, in these kind of races.
Most of the runners are
progressive/very progressive, so the winner is likely to post a PB.
That
said, I do think that My Drogo will have his work cut out, to beat Any News, in
particular…
He was an impressive winner at Bangor in October- and looked
like following up at Cheltenham in November, until being run out of things close
home, by Make me a Believer.
There was no shame in that, as he was trying to
give the winner 6lb - and he went on to frank the form with a good run at
Warwick.
Lucky One was over 10 lengths back in third that day, and it’s hard
to make a case for him reversing the form (even though he has subsequently won
well, at Wincanton).
Bareback Jack is a hard one to quantify, after wins in
3 novice hurdles.
He will be taking a big step up in class tomorrow - but
may be up to it.
By contrast, Do Your Job is taking a step down in class,
having contested the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle on his most recent run.
He
wasn’t up to the job that day - however, the race was run in desperate ground -
and he was sent off at just 5/1.
That suggests he is well thought of - and
if he improves for the better ground, or for a subsequent wind op, then he could
easily outrun his price.
2:05
The Paul Nichols trained
Flash Collonges makes his handicap debut in this and it’s not too surprising
that he’s been installed the early favourite.
It’s hard to know whether his
opening mark of 133 is fair - but Nichols seems to be happy enough with it.
I’ve little doubt that the market close to the off, will advise more
accurately…
Mega Yeats was probably the one that interested me most - on her
second run for Mark Walford.
She was very capable when trained by Ruth
Jefferson - and ran well on her debut for Walford, when second in a jumpers
bumper at Kempton.
That was her first run for over a year, so she is likely
to have come on for it.
From a handicapping perspective, she is now on a
very nice mark - 7lb lower than when mid division behind Dame de Compagnie, at
Cheltenham, just over a year ago.
The issue however, is likely to be the
price. An opening quote of 8/1 has already halved - and that doesn’t leave much
margin for error.
Sail Away could be interesting on his UK debut for Dan
Skleton - though again, the market is likely to offer the best advice.
Sebastapol could also be of interest - if a wind op has had the desired
effect.
He was a good winner at Musselburgh, just over a year ago - and
whilst he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs, he now finds himself on a
mark just 2lb higher.
I’d be pretty sure that makes him well handicapped -
if he is able to show his best.
The trip is a slight concern, as he’s only
proven over the minimum. That said, when he was performing at his best, it
looked as if he would benefit from an extra half mile.
2:40
There may only be 6 runners in this - and just 5 with a realistic
chance - but it’s still a fascinating race…
Based on official ratings,
Aso is very much the one to beat.
He is the joint highest rated horse in the
race, with a rating of 158 - yet receives weight from all of his main rivals.
He also showed himself to be in top form, with a fine second to Two for
Gold, on his most recent outing.
The issue with him, is the trip.
All of
his best form is over 2m4f - and the few times he’s tried 3 miles, he’s appeared
not to stay.
He may stay a little further now that he’s older - but that’s
likely to be offset by him being a little slower !
If he is to win, then
Charlie Deutch will need to produce a master class in conservative riding.
If he doesn’t get home, then Two for Gold looks the one most likely to take
advantage.
He beat Aso by a neck at Warwick - but will be 9lb worse off
tomorrow.
In theory, he has little chance of confirming the form - unless
David Bass makes it a real stamina test and breaks Aso.
However, unlike Aso,
Two for GOld is likely to improve for the increase in distance.
Ofcourse
this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Definitly Red has the same official rating
as Aso - and won the race last year.
However, he is now 12 - and probably
not quite as good as he used to be.
Lake View Lad could certainly be given a
chance, if his rating of 157 could be believed.
He was pushed up to 162, on
the back of beating Santini and Frodon in a farcical race at Aintree - however
that was quickly adjusted down by 5lb - and I suspect he is still rated a few
pounds higher than his ability warrants.
Cloth Cap is the final one worthy
of consideration.
He was a spectacular winner of the Ladbroke trophy in
November - and is now favourite for the Grand National.
However, I’m pretty
sure that Aintree is the only race that matters for him - and I’ll be a little
surprised if he is fully wound up for this contest.
Even if he is, he will
have his work cut out on official ratings - accepting that trip/ground should be
ideal for him…
3:15
It’s hard to look beyond The Shunter
in this - despite the limited appeal of a 2/1 shot in a 14 runner handicap !
He was a really impressive winner of the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenhams
November meeting - and I find it quite surprising that he will get to run off a
mark just 7lb higher tomorrow.
That was a stronger race than tomorrows - and
I don’t think an additional 7lb would have stopped him from winning.
He’s
only run once subsequently, when a staying third over fences at the Dublin
Racing festival.
I suspect he could have won that race as well - given a
more judicious ride - but whatever, it should ensure he is spot on tomorrow.
Faivoir has been installed second favourite, on the back of his win in a
graded novice race at Haydock.
That was a good effort - but I’ll be a bit
surprised if he is able to concede 8lb to The Shunter.
Outside of him,
potential dangers look thin on the ground…
Hunters Call has been running
well all season and finished fourth in the Greatwood. However he is only 5lb
better off with The Shunter for a beating of over 6 lengths - and that shouldn’t
be sufficient to reverse the form.
Tommys Oscar and Night Edition could both
be more dangerous - though there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The former
has only run 4 times over hurdles, so certainly has plenty of scope for
improvement. However, whether he is up to this class, remains to be seen.
Night Edition finished runner up in the Boodles at last years Cheltenham
festival - and will run from a mark 4lb lower tomorrow.
That makes him
potentially very interesting - however, he has shown nothing in 2 runs this
season, so will need to rediscover his form.
