Nov 7th - Bets/Rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

All prices should be easily achievable - don't chase any of them, the margins are minimal !

As a reminder:
-Try to avoid Betfair, if possible (ideally by using bookmakers - or failing that, other exchanges)
-Don’t queue up money on the exchanges - take a price or wait (asking for a price just sets a stop point for layers)
-If you are betting on the exchanges, try to bet 5 mins before the off (roughly)



Matrix bets

Wincanton

1:50
Molly Olly Wishes 3 units win 14/1
It's Probably Me 2 units win 6/1

3:35
Champagne Court 2 units win 15/2
Cobra de Mai 3 units win 16/1


Aintree

1:35
Golan Fortune 7 units win 11/2 (MP 5/1)
Portrush Ted 3 units win 5/1 (MP 4/1)

2:40
Ch'tibello 10 units win 5/2 (MP 9/4)


Best Bets

Aintree

1:35
Golan Fortune 0.5pts win 11/2 (MP 5/1)

2:40
Ch'tibello 1pt win 5/2 (MP 9/4)


There were never going to be too many bets today - as I said in the preview, opportunities were limited.
That said, I did have 3 decent ones on my radar - however, I then sat for over an hour this morning, watching the prices on them shorten - which was a little frustrating !

I’ve stuck with 2 of them - but ditched the third one (not particularly price related).
I’ve also added in a few more speculative ones, for the Matrix (where I feel the prices have gone too far the other way)

Wincanton

I keep on changing my mind on the 1:50 - switching from thinking it’s too competitive - to thinking I’ve got an angle !
I really can’t understand the price of Molly Olly Wishes (too big !) so I had to suggest a small bet on her - and in order to fend off Sods Law, I had to save on Its Probably me.
There are a raft of potential dangers - but I’m prepared to take those 2 against the field.

I didn’t look at either the 2:25 or 3:00 for Official bets - however, in my own bets, I have put Teqany in a forecast with Sceau Royal - and will be backing him ‘w/o the fav’ at around 12/1…

Cobra de Mai has drifted to an acceptable price - and him winning would definitely tip me over an edge, if I hadn’t put him up !
I also wouldn’t be too happy if Champagne Court obliged.
I do think that both have fair chances - and are reasonable prices - though it’s a very hard race to read (due to the ground - and the ‘Nichols factor’).


Aintree

The 1:00 is another race which I’ve had to file under ‘too difficult’.
I like Quoi de Neuf best - but he’s been very heavily supported (tho in truth, if he was weak in the market, I wouldn’t be interested in him).
Northofthewall is too short (5/2), in such a competitive race.
Most of the others can be given a chance - but none of them really stand out.

I find the support for Golan Fortune in this, a little scary !
He was 20/1 last night - which was clearly too big - but I was hoping for at least 8/1 this morning.
That was available early - but his price has just continued to collapse…
I have to ask where the line should be drawn - but the trouble is, it doesn’t look a competitive race - and I’ll be a little surprised if either he or Portrush Ted, don’t win.
Mohaayed is the potential fly in the ointment - but he too, has been well backed !

Unlike the previous race, I’ve cooled a bit on Drumcliff in this (my original fancy).
I’d already decided to save on Modus (the other JP horse in the race) - but I’m now also a bit fearful of Dashing Perk.
My stand by my comments on Bennys King and Espior de Teille - so I find it hard to side with Drumcliff at 6/1.
If his price drifts (closer to 10/1), then he would become of interest (as would Modus).

Ch’tibello stands out a bit in this - and if I’d been able to get 3/1, I would have staked above 1pt (10 units) on him.
It looks a 4 horse race - and I reckon he has the best chance (Summerville Boy is definitely the main danger - if he gets an uncontested lead) .
2/1 is probably the right price on Ch’tibello - but hopefully you’ll all be able to beat that !