There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow - but little of interest at either Ffos Las or Stratford - meaning that Sandown and Navan are the 2 to focus on…
The highlight of a fair card at Sandown, is the veterans chase: whilst at Navan, it’s Troytown day !
As service regulars will know, the Troytown is one of the high-lights of the TVB season.
I’ve managed to tip a couple of winners of the race (including last season) - but it’s also responsible for my most painful ‘non tip’ (there’ll be a prize for the first person (apart from Chris !) to post on the thread, the name of that horse - as a clue, it was a TVB ‘legend’ !).
There is some rain forecast for tomorrow - but hopefully that won’t significantly change the ground at either venue.
Sandown
The going is currently ‘soft’ on the hurdles course and ‘good’ on the chase course - and hopefully it will remain that way !
12:40 (Class 3)
I’m unlikely to suggest any bets in a Class 3 conditional jockeys handicap hurdle - even though it looks a moderately interesting race…
Espion was sent off a relatively short priced favourite last time, on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter.
It was also his handicap debut - and the fact he was so well backed, suggests connections felt he was running off a fair mark.
He made a bad mistake at the 8th flight - and was never travelling after that point.
Back in trip tomorrow, he is certainly of interest…
Gary Moore always targets his horses at Sandown - so whilst it’s not particularly easy to make a case for Twenty Twenty, based on form, he has to be on the short list.
It’s also a little concerning that the horse has a poor record fresh - though he’s only 5, so it may be wrong to jump to any hard conclusions on that score.
Gortroe Joe is the final one of major interest.
He made his debut for Fergal O’Brien in a 17 runner handicap at Carlisle last month - and was sent off at 10/3.
That was because he looked potentially very well handicapped - and because horses tend to improve for a switch to Fergal.
However, it wasn’t the case with him and he ended up finishing last.
He couldn’t be supported based on that run - but if there was an issue that day, which has now been sorted out, he would have every chance…
1:15 (Class 3)
Again, there is probably too much guesswork required to suggest any bets in this race.
Severano looks the most interesting one, to me…
He showed great potential as a novice hurdler last season, culminating in a fine second to McFabulous in the NH novices H/C final at Kempton in March.
That race invariably throws up lots of useful chasing types - and I suspect he will be another.
Whilst he is making his seasonal debut tomorrow - he won first time out last year, so it’s reasonable to think that won’t be an issue.
Igor ran in the same Kempton race - and whilst he finished well beaten, he’s another who I think will make a decent chaser this season.
He also finished behind Severano on his previous outing at Doncaster - but was sent off a short priced favourite that day.
Clearly he has a lot to do on the book, in order to beat Severano tomorrow - but a new season and fences, could make a big difference.
A bit like Twenty Twenty in the previous race, it’s very hard to make a case for Eragon de Chanay.
However, he is also trained by Gary Moore - and he is very well handicapped based on his best hurdling form.
He’s also a young horse (6) - so whilst he couldn’t be fancied on recent form, I wouldn’t be massively surprised if he ran a big race.
2:25 (Class 1)
Whilst Pym looks to have an impossible task on, trying to give 6lb to a horse rated 12lb his superior (If the Cap Fits) - I’m not so sure…
Pym went completely off the boil at the end of last season - but back in January, he trounced Imperial Aura off level weights at Cheltenham.
That one will now be rated 160+ - the same as If the Cap Fits.
In fairness, Imperial Aura may have subsequently improved - but I suspect Pym is a decent horse.
He’s certainly a decent jumper - and he wants quick ground.
If the Caps Fits on the other hand, may not be such a good jumper - and probably wants softer ground.
If Pym can get into a rhythm, then like GA Law today, he may be able to break the favourite…
3:00 (Class 3)
Yet another race on the card, which I suspect I’ll just be watching…
In truth it looks as if it may be a 2 horse race, with Mister Coffey and Faivoir potentially standing head and shoulders above their rivals.
Certainly, I’ll be surprised if the betting doesn’t view them that way.
Both come form big yards and are making their handicap debuts, after just 2 runs in novice hurdles.
They literally could be anything - and it will be a little surprising if they aren’t better than their opening marks.
Most of the others are more exposed - and consequently have less scope for improvement.
The exception is Shesoon Sonny.
He’s a little more exposed than the market leaders - but is also making his handicap debut.
He showed some fair form as a novice and could be of minor interest, if the market gets too skewed by the favourites.
3:30 (Class 2)
As I’ve said before, it usually pays to side with 10 year olds in veterans races - and Step Back is the obvious start point in this one.
He bolted up in the 2018 B365 Gold Cup over tomorrows course - and whilst he has generally struggled since then, he won last time at Wincanton (admittedly in a 3 horse race). If he gets into a rhythm up front tomorrow, he will be hard to catch.
Crosspark got within a nose of getting the TVB pre-season off to a perfect start at Chepstow - and he must have every chance of going one better tomorrow, off a mark just 1 pound higher.
Like Step Back, he’s a 10 year old - and the Chepstow run suggested that he retains the vast majority of his old ability.
Ground and trip will be fine for him - and there is no reason why he won’t run a very big race.
Gold Present is yet another 10 year old - and he is making his debut in a veterans race.
He’s a fragile horse - who has only run 14 times over fences, in his life.
He’s always run well fresh - so the fact he is making his seasonal debut, is not a negative.
He is at his best on good ground - which he should get - though there’s a slight question mark in my mind, regarding both the trip and the course.
He also appears to be on a pretty high mark (148) - but then again, he is a pretty classy horse !
Navan
12:30 (Grade 3)
This is not a race that can be tackled with a great deal of confidence - as it sees 8 unexposed, progressive sorts in opposition.
Eskylane has been installed favourite - and that’s fair enough.
He finished fifth in last seasons Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival - and on that run, is very much the one to beat.
He only scrambled home on his hurdling debut at Punchestown last month - but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t show significant improvement for that run.
Like Eskylane, Wide Receiver is trained by Gordon Elliott and he may turn out to be the favourites biggest danger.
The way he was campaigned last season, suggested that he is considered a decent horse (he was Elliotts main hope in the bumper at the Dublin Racing festival) - and whilst he was beaten on his hurdling debut at Punchestown last month, I suspect he will leave that run behind tomorrow,..
Jungle Junction is one of the more experienced runners in the field - having already run 3 times over hurdles.
All those runs came last season - and he showed a fair level of form on each occasion.
Assuming he is ready to do himself justice, then he sets a reasonable standard for the race.
1:00 (Grade 2)
With the exception of Sixshooter, all of the principals in this, will be making their seasonal debut.
As a consequence, we have to guess on fitness, which is never ideal…
Whilst he is the highest rated horse in the field, I’m not overly keen on Sire De Berlais at 2m4f.
He’s a 3 miler - and I’ll be a bit surprised if he is quick enough to win this - even if he is sufficiently tuned.
Ronald Pump was a revelation last year - and finished runner up in the stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival
That was over 3 miles - but I would have less of an issue with him stepping back to 2m4f.
He did win on his seasonal debut last year - but his fitness would still be a slight concern.
Cracking Smart should be well suited by tomorrows trip - and I suspect he will be fit enough to do himself justice.
However, he has to concede 5lb to horses rated superior to him - and that’s a big ask.
If he’s fit enough to do himself justice then Supersundae will win this.
However, he’s never previously won over hurdles on the return from a break - so fitness has to be a big concern.
On the flip side, he’ll soon be 11 - and therefore hasn’t got many big pay days left in him.
Connections will be aware of that, so may have put a lot of work into him, to make sure he is ready to roll.
1:35 (Grade B)
The big race of the day - and one which might prove suitable for the deployment of the full Matrix !
Any short list, has to start with The Jam Man.
A 143 rated hurdler, who looked just as good over fences, when winning 3 races in quick succession last summer.
However he gets to race off a mark of just 129 tomorrow - suggesting that he might literally have a stone in hand.
He’ll be fit - following a recent win on the flat, so the only real question mark concerns how his jumping will stand up, in a 22 runner chase...
Fitzhenry is next on the list.
He finished a clear second in the corresponding race last year - receiving just 12lb from a horse who is now rated 164.
He also finished runner up in the Paddy Power chase at Christmas - so he definitely deserves to win one of these big races.
A recent run over hurdles will doubtless ensure he is spot on - and its hard to see him not going very close (assuming luck in running).
It’s very interesting that Mark Walsh has chosen to ride Portmore Lough for JP McManus.
He finished third in this race 12 months ago - and was very unlucky not to win the Munster National last time (he was badly hampered at the first fence).
His jumping can be a bit iffy - but if he gets round OK, then he should be right in the mix.
Plan of Attack was third in last seasons Paddy Power chase - just a place behind Fitzhenry.
He’s no better off at the weights tomorrow - and was pulled up on his reappearance in the Kerry National - but if he bounces back to form, he should be thereabouts.
Mr Diablo could well run a big race at a big price - and could be a decent back to lay in running option. However, he is now nearly 12 - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to manage anything better than a place.
Despite saddling 10 in the race (!), none of the Gordon Elliott runners really grab me…
Elwood is perhaps the most interesting - or maybe Death Duty (who has a lot of ability - and isn’t badly handicapped, despite top weight)
12:30 (Grade 3)
This is not a race that can be tackled with a great deal of confidence - as it sees 8 unexposed, progressive sorts in opposition.
Eskylane has been installed favourite - and that’s fair enough.
He finished fifth in last seasons Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival - and on that run, is very much the one to beat.
He only scrambled home on his hurdling debut at Punchestown last month - but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t show significant improvement for that run.
Like Eskylane, Wide Receiver is trained by Gordon Elliott and he may turn out to be the favourites biggest danger.
The way he was campaigned last season, suggested that he is considered a decent horse (he was Elliotts main hope in the bumper at the Dublin Racing festival) - and whilst he was beaten on his hurdling debut at Punchestown last month, I suspect he will leave that run behind tomorrow,..
Jungle Junction is one of the more experienced runners in the field - having already run 3 times over hurdles.
All those runs came last season - and he showed a fair level of form on each occasion.
Assuming he is ready to do himself justice, then he sets a reasonable standard for the race.
1:00 (Grade 2)
With the exception of Sixshooter, all of the principals in this, will be making their seasonal debut.
As a consequence, we have to guess on fitness, which is never ideal…
Whilst he is the highest rated horse in the field, I’m not overly keen on Sire De Berlais at 2m4f.
He’s a 3 miler - and I’ll be a bit surprised if he is quick enough to win this - even if he is sufficiently tuned.
Ronald Pump was a revelation last year - and finished runner up in the stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival
That was over 3 miles - but I would have less of an issue with him stepping back to 2m4f.
He did win on his seasonal debut last year - but his fitness would still be a slight concern.
Cracking Smart should be well suited by tomorrows trip - and I suspect he will be fit enough to do himself justice.
However, he has to concede 5lb to horses rated superior to him - and that’s a big ask.
If he’s fit enough to do himself justice then Supersundae will win this.
However, he’s never previously won over hurdles on the return from a break - so fitness has to be a big concern.
On the flip side, he’ll soon be 11 - and therefore hasn’t got many big pay days left in him.
Connections will be aware of that, so may have put a lot of work into him, to make sure he is ready to roll.
1:35 (Grade B)
The big race of the day - and one which might prove suitable for the deployment of the full Matrix !
Any short list, has to start with The Jam Man.
A 143 rated hurdler, who looked just as good over fences, when winning 3 races in quick succession last summer.
However he gets to race off a mark of just 129 tomorrow - suggesting that he might literally have a stone in hand.
He’ll be fit - following a recent win on the flat, so the only real question mark concerns how his jumping will stand up, in a 22 runner chase...
Fitzhenry is next on the list.
He finished a clear second in the corresponding race last year - receiving just 12lb from a horse who is now rated 164.
He also finished runner up in the Paddy Power chase at Christmas - so he definitely deserves to win one of these big races.
A recent run over hurdles will doubtless ensure he is spot on - and its hard to see him not going very close (assuming luck in running).
It’s very interesting that Mark Walsh has chosen to ride Portmore Lough for JP McManus.
He finished third in this race 12 months ago - and was very unlucky not to win the Munster National last time (he was badly hampered at the first fence).
His jumping can be a bit iffy - but if he gets round OK, then he should be right in the mix.
Plan of Attack was third in last seasons Paddy Power chase - just a place behind Fitzhenry.
He’s no better off at the weights tomorrow - and was pulled up on his reappearance in the Kerry National - but if he bounces back to form, he should be thereabouts.
Mr Diablo could well run a big race at a big price - and could be a decent back to lay in running option. However, he is now nearly 12 - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to manage anything better than a place.
Despite saddling 10 in the race (!), none of the Gordon Elliott runners really grab me…
Elwood is perhaps the most interesting - or maybe Death Duty (who has a lot of ability - and isn’t badly handicapped, despite top weight)
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