Make sure you don't take under the odds on the Navan race (there is currently a 35% margin on best prices !).
The current bookmaker quote
on Fitzhenry is too low - he should be at least a couple of points
bigger.
That said, I wouldn't be surpried if either he or Portmore Lough were subject to significant late support (both are owned by JP McManus)
Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Sandown
3:30
Gold Present 7 units win 13/2
Crosspark 3 units win 13/2
Navan
1:35
Fitzhenry 7 units win 10/1 (FP 12/1)
Portmore Lough 4 units win 8/1 (MP 6/1)
The Jam Man 3 units win 4/1 (MP 7/2)
Plan of Attack 1 unit win 14/1 (FP 16/1)
Best Bets
Sandown
3:30
Gold Present 0.5pts win 13/2
Navan
1:35
Fitzhenry 0.5pts win 10/1 (FP 12/1)
Portmore Lough 0.5pts win 8/1 (MP 6/1)
There are only 2 races today, in which I was ever going to be able to issue bets - and I’ve issued bets in them both !
As I suggested in the ‘bets’ email, the early bookmaker prices on the Navan race, were something of a joke.
A 35% overound on best prices, means that it’s effectively a 50% overound for most of you (as few will have all the accounts required to get all the best prices).
In such circumstances, it does make more sense to bet on the exchanges - though liquidity tends to be an issue, until closer to the off.
If you didn’t manage to secure a fair price early, I would suggest leaving it and returning in a couple of hours.
If we all did that, then I suspect the market would look very different (because the prices of the suggested bets wouldn’t be suppressed).
Anyway, on with the bet/staking rationale !
Sandown
The 3 of interest in the first race (12:40), have all drifted to acceptable prices - but that’s only because the David Pipe trainer First Lord de Curt has been hammered in the betting !
I sense a plot - and my spider senses say, ‘leave the race alone’ !
If you do want to get involved, then Gortroe Joe at 7/1, is probably the best option.
Severano has been well backed in the 1:15 - but that was more predictable.
He may well win - but I won’t be backing him at 7/4 on his chasing/seasonal debut.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Salty Jack - who makes his debut for David Bridgewater.
He’s been subject to a bit of support - which I find interesting…
Pym can be backed at 3/1 on the exchanges (11/4 with the bookies) in the 2:25 - and that’s tempting.
I reckon he may well win this race more often than one time in four…
There has been massive support for Sheshoon Sonny in the 3:00.
I’m sure I saw him at 16/1 last night (though possibly only on the exchanges) - but you’ll struggle to beat 6/1 now.
That’s because the 2 market leaders aren’t anywhere near as strong in the market as I expected.
In truth, I wouldn’t really know how to read all of this - and would be inclined to swerve the race.
I think that Gold Present can win the veterans chase - and he is a fair bet at 13/2.
I certainly think he is the best horse in the race - and whilst that’s reflected by the weight he has to carry, he’s not giving much to some inferior types.
First time is the time to catch him - and he needs decent ground.
I watched a recording of his previous run at Sandown - and his jumping was magnificent. If he can do the same again today, it will be a huge positive for his chances.
The only doubt in my mind is the3 mile trip - and whether it will stretch his stamina. However he has won over 3 miles at Ascot (when he beat Frodon), so I hope I’m worrying unduly.
Just in case, I’ve covered with Crosspark in the Matrix.
He looks a very solid option - and if Gold Present is chased down after the last, it will hopefully be by him !
Navan
Apparently there has been a lot of rain at Navan overnight, so the ground will be heavier than I was expecting.
Eskylane will probably take the 12:30 - but the market is wise to that (he’s an 11/8 shot).
I would have been quite keen to oppose him with Jungle Junction - but the rain makes me a little more wary.
I think heavy ground will play more into the hands of Eskyland and Wide Receiver (who both also have the benefit of a run, this season).
Sixshooter has made it to the head of the market in the 1:00 - but I’m sure that’s because of question marks over all of his rivals.
I’ve no doubt he’ll run his race - but there should be at least one good enough to beat him…
If I were to get involved (and I may) - I would probably take a chance on Cracking Smart.
He can be backed at 14/1 - and that’s big for a horse who will be well suited by conditions and is likely to be fit enough to do himself justice.
It was a little disappointing to see everything I fancied, at the top of the market in the Troytown.
I was hoping to deploy the full matrix - but for that to happen I really need to be able to take on one or two of the market leaders - and I want them all on side !
It was a flip of the coin whether I sided with Fitzhenry or Portmore Lough.
The former has the form in the book - and has been given a targeted preparation: but the latter was very unlucky not to win last time - and is the choice of Mark Walsh.
Second guessing JP McManus is something only the foolish would do - so I’ll side with them both and split stakes.
For the Matrix, then you have to cover The Jam Man, as he could run away with the race.
I also think Plan of Attack is worth a saver, as it looks like he might be under-estimate in the betting (he has little to find with Fitzhenry).
That said, I wouldn't be surpried if either he or Portmore Lough were subject to significant late support (both are owned by JP McManus)
Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Sandown
3:30
Gold Present 7 units win 13/2
Crosspark 3 units win 13/2
Navan
1:35
Fitzhenry 7 units win 10/1 (FP 12/1)
Portmore Lough 4 units win 8/1 (MP 6/1)
The Jam Man 3 units win 4/1 (MP 7/2)
Plan of Attack 1 unit win 14/1 (FP 16/1)
Best Bets
Sandown
3:30
Gold Present 0.5pts win 13/2
Navan
1:35
Fitzhenry 0.5pts win 10/1 (FP 12/1)
Portmore Lough 0.5pts win 8/1 (MP 6/1)
There are only 2 races today, in which I was ever going to be able to issue bets - and I’ve issued bets in them both !
As I suggested in the ‘bets’ email, the early bookmaker prices on the Navan race, were something of a joke.
A 35% overound on best prices, means that it’s effectively a 50% overound for most of you (as few will have all the accounts required to get all the best prices).
In such circumstances, it does make more sense to bet on the exchanges - though liquidity tends to be an issue, until closer to the off.
If you didn’t manage to secure a fair price early, I would suggest leaving it and returning in a couple of hours.
If we all did that, then I suspect the market would look very different (because the prices of the suggested bets wouldn’t be suppressed).
Anyway, on with the bet/staking rationale !
Sandown
The 3 of interest in the first race (12:40), have all drifted to acceptable prices - but that’s only because the David Pipe trainer First Lord de Curt has been hammered in the betting !
I sense a plot - and my spider senses say, ‘leave the race alone’ !
If you do want to get involved, then Gortroe Joe at 7/1, is probably the best option.
Severano has been well backed in the 1:15 - but that was more predictable.
He may well win - but I won’t be backing him at 7/4 on his chasing/seasonal debut.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Salty Jack - who makes his debut for David Bridgewater.
He’s been subject to a bit of support - which I find interesting…
Pym can be backed at 3/1 on the exchanges (11/4 with the bookies) in the 2:25 - and that’s tempting.
I reckon he may well win this race more often than one time in four…
There has been massive support for Sheshoon Sonny in the 3:00.
I’m sure I saw him at 16/1 last night (though possibly only on the exchanges) - but you’ll struggle to beat 6/1 now.
That’s because the 2 market leaders aren’t anywhere near as strong in the market as I expected.
In truth, I wouldn’t really know how to read all of this - and would be inclined to swerve the race.
I think that Gold Present can win the veterans chase - and he is a fair bet at 13/2.
I certainly think he is the best horse in the race - and whilst that’s reflected by the weight he has to carry, he’s not giving much to some inferior types.
First time is the time to catch him - and he needs decent ground.
I watched a recording of his previous run at Sandown - and his jumping was magnificent. If he can do the same again today, it will be a huge positive for his chances.
The only doubt in my mind is the3 mile trip - and whether it will stretch his stamina. However he has won over 3 miles at Ascot (when he beat Frodon), so I hope I’m worrying unduly.
Just in case, I’ve covered with Crosspark in the Matrix.
He looks a very solid option - and if Gold Present is chased down after the last, it will hopefully be by him !
Navan
Apparently there has been a lot of rain at Navan overnight, so the ground will be heavier than I was expecting.
Eskylane will probably take the 12:30 - but the market is wise to that (he’s an 11/8 shot).
I would have been quite keen to oppose him with Jungle Junction - but the rain makes me a little more wary.
I think heavy ground will play more into the hands of Eskyland and Wide Receiver (who both also have the benefit of a run, this season).
Sixshooter has made it to the head of the market in the 1:00 - but I’m sure that’s because of question marks over all of his rivals.
I’ve no doubt he’ll run his race - but there should be at least one good enough to beat him…
If I were to get involved (and I may) - I would probably take a chance on Cracking Smart.
He can be backed at 14/1 - and that’s big for a horse who will be well suited by conditions and is likely to be fit enough to do himself justice.
It was a little disappointing to see everything I fancied, at the top of the market in the Troytown.
I was hoping to deploy the full matrix - but for that to happen I really need to be able to take on one or two of the market leaders - and I want them all on side !
It was a flip of the coin whether I sided with Fitzhenry or Portmore Lough.
The former has the form in the book - and has been given a targeted preparation: but the latter was very unlucky not to win last time - and is the choice of Mark Walsh.
Second guessing JP McManus is something only the foolish would do - so I’ll side with them both and split stakes.
For the Matrix, then you have to cover The Jam Man, as he could run away with the race.
I also think Plan of Attack is worth a saver, as it looks like he might be under-estimate in the betting (he has little to find with Fitzhenry).
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