They say that a week is a long time in politics - and whilst I’m not doubting that, it’s also a long time in the world of tipping !
I struggle to believe that it’s only a week since the new TVB season began - so much water has since passed under the bridge.
In fact, it was a real relief for me to be able to spend a few hours yesterday evening, simply studying form and watching videos.
As I’ve said a few times, the later tipping window has made things a bit trickier for me in terms of the writing (previews) - but to counter that, the 48 hour final declarations, have helped immensely.
Ofcourse, consistent weather helps as well - and surprisingly, there is no rain forecast for today or tomorrow - so the ground should be riding as stated (or maybe even a touch quicker).
As I said in the ‘Plans for the weekend’ email, there are just 3 NH meetings - and only 2 worthy of preview.
The feature meeting is at Wincanton, though it doesn’t look overly punter friendly.
Aintree hosts some better looking races (from a betting perspective), so whilst I don’t want to pre-judge anything, I suspect it may yield more bets (though I’m really not expecting a glut).
I’ll probably remind you all again tomorrow, but based on last weekends experiences, my requests/suggestions for placing bets would be:
-Try to avoid Betfair, if possible (ideally by using bookmakers - or failing that, other exchanges)
-Don’t queue up money on the exchanges - take a price or wait (asking for a price just sets a stop point for layers)
-If you are betting on the exchanges, try to bet 5 mins before the off (roughly)
Wincanton
The going is already described as ‘good’ - and with no rain forecast, it is likely to be riding on the fast side.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few non runners - particularly in the Badger Beer chase.
1:50 (Class 2)
This looks a really strong race, of it’s type - and whilst I did think I’d found a possible angle, I’m now thinking that it may be a race best watched (though obviously, I’ll make a final decision tomorrow).
The angle I initially liked, was with Molly Ollys Wishes and It’s Probably Me.
They met twice last season, and finished first and second on both occasions - with Molly wining the first race and Probably then taking revenge.
At tomorrows weights, there should again be little between them.
Molly has the advantage of a run this season: though to counter that, Henry Daly has his string in fine form.
My inclination would be to let available prices sway me (Molly is currently a bit bigger price) - though I have got a sneaking suspicion that both would prefer softer ground than they are likely to get…
Of the others, then my ‘short list’ wouldn’t be very short !
Paul Nichols saddles 2 interesting runners, in Cill Anna and Eglantine du Seuil: whilst Nicky Henderson runs the equally interesting Sunrise Ruby.
All 3 could easily be up to winning.
The White Mouse is also potentially very interesting - despite an absence of nearly 600 days.
She could be well handicapped - and Dicky Johnson in the saddle has to be viewed as a big positive.
Last years easy winner, Misty Bloom, races off a mark just 4lb higher; whilst Oneofthosenights, is unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles in the UK and impossible to get handle on.
The final one to mention, is Fleur Irlandaise.
She looked good on a couple of occasions last season - and quick ground may be the key to her.
2:25 (Class 1)
Just the 3 runners, means that this race holds minimal appeal as a betting medium.
Tactics and jumping are likely to be key - and it is possible that the sound jumping, front running GA Law may be able to steal it.
On official ratings, he has a bit to find with Grand Sancy - but if Daryl Jacobs can apply the pressure at the right time, he may be GA Law may be upset the favourite.
It’s hard to make a case for Hurricane Harvey, despite a good win on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter last time.
He beat Emiton that day - which is strong form. However he did it by running down a tiring leader, close home.
He looks like he needs more of a test than he will get tomorrow - so if the other 2 get round OK (and haven’t gone too fast), I would expect him to lack the speed to get involved in the finish.
3:00 (Class 1)
There’s a slightly bigger field declared for this (6) - though I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two dropped out tomorrow.
Regardless, Sceau Royal will be very hard to beat.
He’s the highest rated horse in the field: loves quick ground - and arrives in top form.
He won the corresponding race 4 years ago (when he was just 4) - and he will probably follow up tomorrow.
His case is made even stronger by the fact he’s a hold up horse - and there are a couple of front runners in the race (Master Debonair and Brandon Castle).
They are likely to set up the race for him - whilst compromising their own chances.
If Diego de Charmil and Solo didn’t represent Paul Nichols, they would be quite hard to make a case for.
Far more interesting, from a forecast perspective (or without the fav), is Teqany.
He has a few pounds to find on most of this rivals - but not too many.
He also arrives in very good form - and will love the quick ground.
3:35 (Class 1)
I briefly toyed with suggesting Champagne Court as an ante-post bet in this, on Monday evening.
He was a 20/1 shot at the time - and he’s now 8/1 - so it would have been a good call !
What put me off him, was the 3 mile trip (he’s unproven) - and the quick ground.
They may cancel each other out - but then again…
He remains on the short list - but his appeal has now obviously a little reduced !
Next on the list, is Just a Sting.
He finished fourth in the race last year - and on slightly more suitable ground tomorrow, even off a mark 1 pound higher, I would expect him to again go close.
Danny Whizzbang looks the most interesting of Paul Nichols 3 runners - despite very limited chasing experience.
He has a bit of class about him - and is almost certain to have be primed for the race.
He’s been installed favourite - but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift to an acceptable price, close to the off (around 8/1), probably due to ground concerns.
Cobra de Mai is the final one of interest - provided you have a forgiving nature !
He’s been ready to win for nearly a year (since Kempton, last Christmas) - but hasn’t had his conditions (he needs quick ground).
He looked like getting them a fortnight ago at Cheltenham - but late rain scuppered his chances (and that was before he got into a battle for the lead, with Frodon !).
Quick ground tomorrow; coupled with first time blinkers - and a 2 lb lower mark, mean that he should be a big danger to everything.
Aintree
I would expect the ground at Aintree to be riding a bit softer than at Wincanton.
The weather forecast is similar - but the current going description is ‘soft’, with some ‘good to soft’ in places.
1:00 (Class 3)
A bit like with the first race that I previewed at Wincanton: this looks a really strong contest (of its type), but finding a bet in it may be tricky (because it has significant depth)…
Quoi De Neuf is the first one of interest - as I think he could be a fair better than his mark of 133.
He finished a highly creditable fourth in last seasons Greatwood hurdle (off a mark of 129), when just a 5 year old, and with very limited experience.
He makes his chasing debut tomorrow - as well as his seasonal debut - so there is some guess work required.
However, he’s the only runner for Evan Williams on the card, and he has trained a number of good winners for the Ruckers at Aintree, in the past.
The booking of Brian Hughes looks significant - and if he is backed, I’d expect him to run a very big race.
Northofthewall represents the Skeltons and he ran fourth last time on his chasing debut, in a particularly strong novice handicap at Uttoxeter.
He was sent off favourite for that race - and runs off a pound lower mark tomorrow.
He sets the race standard.
Repititio is also of definite interest.
He’s only 4 - so receives a 9lb weight for age allowance from his rivals.
As he’s quite a mature horse - that’s a generous concession.
He may not quite have the scope of some of his rivals - but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run very well.
Fanfan de Seuil is interesting from a handicapping perspective, as he has dropped a long way in the weights.
He’s still only 5 - and will be making his chasing debut - so could well improve and is of some interest, at a potentially big price.
The final 2 to mention are the JP McManus horses: Time to get Up and Canelo.
The former will be making his debut for Jonjo O’Neil and could literally be anything (the market will doubtless advise); whilst the latter will be sporting first time cheek pieces (Alan King has a particularly good record with such runners)
1:35 (Class 2)
There aren’t quite so many, that can be fancied in this Pertemps qualifier…
Portrush Ted is the first one of interest.
He won a graded bumper at the Aintree Grand National meeting 2 seasons ago - but has only run 3 times over hurdles, since.
However, he won 2 of those races - and would have gone close in the other, but for falling at the last.
The worry with him, is quick ground - though I’m sure that if connections deem it unsuitable he will be withdrawn.
Eight and Bob is an interesting runner for Willie Mullins (his only one on the card).
I guess he has been brought over with a view to getting him qualified for the final of the series - but he’s hard to dismiss from a win perspective.
Golan Fortune is the next one of interest - though it’s a bit disappointing to see that he’s already been heavily backed !
He won a similar race at Cheltenham, last November, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He didn’t show much in his 2 subsequent runs, last season - but shaped with a fair amount of promise on his return at Cheltenham a fortnight ago.
That was over a trip short of his best - and he went without his usual cheekpieces.
He was staying on nicely at the end of the race - and I would expect a much better performance tomorrow.
Mohayed is the final one worth a mention.
He is stepping up massively in trip - and whilst it’s impossible to know if he will stay, if he does, he is sufficiently well handicapped to win.
2:10 (Class 2)
Bennys King has been installed favourite for this - and there is a chance that he will simply be a bit too classy for his rivals.
However, 2m4f on decent ground, is likely to provide a minimum test of stamina for him - and he’s also making his seasonal debut.
Drumcliffe is the other one of major interest.
He’s a well handicapped horse - but had shown very little for a couple of years, prior to his last run at Fontwell.
He cruised through the race that day - but didn’t quite get home.
If he can back up that run tomorrow, then he is arguably the one to beat.
Espoir de Telle is an interesting one at a likely big price.
He won well on his chasing debut, 12 months ago - and whilst he has only run once since, he retains plenty of potential for improvement over fences.
2:40 (Class 2)
There are only 6 runners in this (and only 5 that really count) - but it is still a fascinating contest.
Summerville Boy could get the run of things, from the front (unless Navajo Pass takes him on) - and if he’s fit enough to do himself justice, he will be hard to pass.
Call me Lord isn’t easily dismissed, as he is trained by Nicky Henderson.
However, he will be making his seasonal debut and would probably prefer softer ground.
The same is true of Thomas Derby - though he is the highest rated horse in the field - and also the one with the most potential for improvement.
If he’s fully tuned, he will be hard to beat.
I’ll be amazed if Ch’tibello isn’t fully tuned.
Unlike his 3 main rivals, this will be his ‘cup final’ and Dan Skelton is likely to have left little to work on.
He receives weight from all of his main rivals - making him the best horse in the race at the weights.
He’s also had a wind op over the summer - so there really should be no excuses for him.
I would expect the ground at Aintree to be riding a bit softer than at Wincanton.
The weather forecast is similar - but the current going description is ‘soft’, with some ‘good to soft’ in places.
1:00 (Class 3)
A bit like with the first race that I previewed at Wincanton: this looks a really strong contest (of its type), but finding a bet in it may be tricky (because it has significant depth)…
Quoi De Neuf is the first one of interest - as I think he could be a fair better than his mark of 133.
He finished a highly creditable fourth in last seasons Greatwood hurdle (off a mark of 129), when just a 5 year old, and with very limited experience.
He makes his chasing debut tomorrow - as well as his seasonal debut - so there is some guess work required.
However, he’s the only runner for Evan Williams on the card, and he has trained a number of good winners for the Ruckers at Aintree, in the past.
The booking of Brian Hughes looks significant - and if he is backed, I’d expect him to run a very big race.
Northofthewall represents the Skeltons and he ran fourth last time on his chasing debut, in a particularly strong novice handicap at Uttoxeter.
He was sent off favourite for that race - and runs off a pound lower mark tomorrow.
He sets the race standard.
Repititio is also of definite interest.
He’s only 4 - so receives a 9lb weight for age allowance from his rivals.
As he’s quite a mature horse - that’s a generous concession.
He may not quite have the scope of some of his rivals - but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run very well.
Fanfan de Seuil is interesting from a handicapping perspective, as he has dropped a long way in the weights.
He’s still only 5 - and will be making his chasing debut - so could well improve and is of some interest, at a potentially big price.
The final 2 to mention are the JP McManus horses: Time to get Up and Canelo.
The former will be making his debut for Jonjo O’Neil and could literally be anything (the market will doubtless advise); whilst the latter will be sporting first time cheek pieces (Alan King has a particularly good record with such runners)
1:35 (Class 2)
There aren’t quite so many, that can be fancied in this Pertemps qualifier…
Portrush Ted is the first one of interest.
He won a graded bumper at the Aintree Grand National meeting 2 seasons ago - but has only run 3 times over hurdles, since.
However, he won 2 of those races - and would have gone close in the other, but for falling at the last.
The worry with him, is quick ground - though I’m sure that if connections deem it unsuitable he will be withdrawn.
Eight and Bob is an interesting runner for Willie Mullins (his only one on the card).
I guess he has been brought over with a view to getting him qualified for the final of the series - but he’s hard to dismiss from a win perspective.
Golan Fortune is the next one of interest - though it’s a bit disappointing to see that he’s already been heavily backed !
He won a similar race at Cheltenham, last November, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He didn’t show much in his 2 subsequent runs, last season - but shaped with a fair amount of promise on his return at Cheltenham a fortnight ago.
That was over a trip short of his best - and he went without his usual cheekpieces.
He was staying on nicely at the end of the race - and I would expect a much better performance tomorrow.
Mohayed is the final one worth a mention.
He is stepping up massively in trip - and whilst it’s impossible to know if he will stay, if he does, he is sufficiently well handicapped to win.
2:10 (Class 2)
Bennys King has been installed favourite for this - and there is a chance that he will simply be a bit too classy for his rivals.
However, 2m4f on decent ground, is likely to provide a minimum test of stamina for him - and he’s also making his seasonal debut.
Drumcliffe is the other one of major interest.
He’s a well handicapped horse - but had shown very little for a couple of years, prior to his last run at Fontwell.
He cruised through the race that day - but didn’t quite get home.
If he can back up that run tomorrow, then he is arguably the one to beat.
Espoir de Telle is an interesting one at a likely big price.
He won well on his chasing debut, 12 months ago - and whilst he has only run once since, he retains plenty of potential for improvement over fences.
2:40 (Class 2)
There are only 6 runners in this (and only 5 that really count) - but it is still a fascinating contest.
Summerville Boy could get the run of things, from the front (unless Navajo Pass takes him on) - and if he’s fit enough to do himself justice, he will be hard to pass.
Call me Lord isn’t easily dismissed, as he is trained by Nicky Henderson.
However, he will be making his seasonal debut and would probably prefer softer ground.
The same is true of Thomas Derby - though he is the highest rated horse in the field - and also the one with the most potential for improvement.
If he’s fully tuned, he will be hard to beat.
I’ll be amazed if Ch’tibello isn’t fully tuned.
Unlike his 3 main rivals, this will be his ‘cup final’ and Dan Skelton is likely to have left little to work on.
He receives weight from all of his main rivals - making him the best horse in the race at the weights.
He’s also had a wind op over the summer - so there really should be no excuses for him.
No comments:
Post a Comment