Review of the weekend - Oct 31st-Nov 1st

 Saturday 

The opening day of the new TVB season, saw 4 Best bets issued - and an additional 4 bets, as part of the Matrix.

First in to bat, was Dorking Boy at Ascot - but he ran an absolute shocker…

I’ve no idea why.
He may possibly have found the ground a bit soft - but for whatever reason, he was never travelling and was one of the first beaten.

Smarty Wild was in the same race for the Matrix - and whilst he did a little better, running on late for third place wasn’t really much of a help…

Next up it was Ibleo.
I wouldn’t normally get involved at such a short price - but it did look a relatively weak contest - and I thought he should win.

And in truth, even after the race, I felt the same !
I suspect the key moment was when Capeland fell in front of him at the sixth fence.
Charlie Deutsch took action to avoid the faller - and that seemed to set Ibleo alight.

From that point, I felt he was always doing a bit much - and whilst it looked like he would just about get way with it, he was collared in the shadows of the post.

A bit galling…

And more of the same followed half an hour later.

Chris’s Dream travelled beautifully through his race at Down Royal - and looked to have it won, when he powered into the lead between the final 2 fences.

However, The Storyteller tracked him through - and then pounced on the run in.

Two near misses on the opening day, is really not what you want.

The final Best bet of the day, was Saint Leo at Ayr.

Maybe I should have left him alone, as he was risky - and in the circumstance, I felt his price was short enough.

Others didn’t feel the same way though, as he was hammered into a scarcely believable 3/1 at the off.
Adding insult to injury, he was never put in the race - and was eventually pulled up.

Despite all this, I suspect he will come good this season - though whether I’ll be brave enough to put him up again, is a different matter !

That was it for the Best bets - but the Matrix still had 3 shots at the big handicap at Ascot.
And whilst they couldn’t manage any better than a third placing between, them I don’t think that’s a fair reflection on how close I came to finding the winner.

I went with a couple of outsiders, Townshend and Militarian (who finished third) - and the race was won by an outsider with a similar profile (Regal Encore).
Whilst my saving bet was the unexposed Commanche Red - but it was the similarly unexposed Whatmore, who took the runners up spot.

It just shows, with a bit of spin, you can even get a seemingly disappointing result, to look like a near miss :)


Sunday

There were again 4 Best bets on Sunday - supported by 3 additional Matrix bets.

First up, were Foxy Jacks and Heaven Help Us in the Novice chase at Cork.

At the odds (around 7/1 each), I honestly thought they represented a cracking ‘dutched’ bet.
They had similar profiles - and I was very optimistic that one of them would come good.

And Foxy Jacks so nearly did.
Always travelling well - he cruised into the lead approaching the second last (at which point he traded heavily odds on) - but then found disappointingly little.

He was passed before the last, by Home by the Lea - who had been the early morning favourite, but went off at 13/2.

Foxy Jacks by contrast, was backed into 9/2 fav (Heaven Help Us was subject to similar support - resulting in a similar price drop) - and it was this race which suggested to me, that TVB was having an undesirable influence on the market.

It’s tricky to know what to do, as it was a Graded race (the highest class) - so if I can’t suggest bets in such races, then it does limit my options (in Ireland, at least).

Out Sam was the next Best bet to run - and he ran a fair race to finish fifth in the Cork National.
There were no excuses, he simply wasn’t good enough.

Again, he was very well backed (into 9/1 at the off - from an early 14/1) - adding a little more, to the worries about the strength of the Irish markets.

Tokyo Getaway was the saver for the Matrix - but she was disappointing.
Maybe is was just too much too soon for her - but for whatever reason, she never featured…

The final race of interest on the day, was handicap chase at Carlisle.

Roll Again was the main suggestion - and he ran a reasonable race.
Leading throughout, he didn’t quite get home and will doubtless be better for the run (plus a slightly shorter trip).

To be honest, even if he had been fully tuned, I don’t think he would have beaten Sojourn.
He tanked through the race like a horse much better than his rating - and despite a mistake at the second last, won by 15 lengths, easing up.

He’ll doubtless be raised at least 10lb for the win - but could easily be capable of defying his new mark.

Thankfully, I did save on him for the Matrix (along with Debecee - who showed very little), so at least there was one non losing race on the weekend (assuming you were following the Matrix !).