Todays Suggested bets
Once again, the prices of a number of the bets have dropped in the past hour, to the point where the margin is small (I would esitmate around 10%)
Consequently, you shouldn't chase down any of the advised prices...
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
1:40
Gumball 10 units win 8/1 (MP 7/1)
Zarkereva 2 units win 11/1
2:15
The Russian Doyen 5 units win 20/1
Saint Sonnet 5 units win 13/2
2:50
Golan Fortune 5 units win 5/1 (MP 9/2)
Who's my Jockey 3 units win 16/1
Mrs Milner 2 units win 5/1 (MP 5/1)
3:25
Whatsupwithyou 5 units win 7/1 (MP 6/1)
Best Bets
Cheltenham
1:40
Gumball 1pt win 8/1 (MP 7/1)
2:15
The Russian Doyen 0.5pt win 20/1
Saint Sonnet 0.5pt win 13/2
2:50
Golan Fortune 0.5pt win 5/1 (MP 9/2)
3:25
Whatsupwithyou 0.5pt win 7/1 (MP 6/1)
I had originally planned to cover a couple of races at
Wetherby & Uttoxeter - but looking at the markets, it was quite clear, even
last night, that I wouldn’t be able to issue any official bets in
them.
It was the same at Punchestown - though in truth, there was nothing I particularly fancied there.
As a consequence, the focus is all on Cheltenham…
My assumption is that there will be a fair bit of rain - though we can only guess on how much.
If there is too much, it may see the withdrawal of some of the fancied horses which I’ve opposed (Tea Clipper has already been taken out of the staying hurdle).
That will mean that margins on the suggested bets will get even tighter…
Anyway, I ended up attacking 4 of the races - fingers crossed for a bit of luck today !
Cheltenham
I was never going to get involved with the opening juvenile hurdle (12:30) - though I’m a bit surprised to see Adagio as big as 8/1 on the exchanges.
I may take a small risk on him at that price.
I can’t see an angle into the 1:05.
Lamanver Pippin is handicapped to win - but I don’t know if he will be fully fit, so can’t get involved at 5/1.
Kilfilum Cross has almost certainly been targeted at the race - but he has nothing in hand of his mark.
I’d expect him to place - but he has to be vulnerable from a win perspective.
Most of the others can be given half chances, depending on the ground and how the race pans out…
I like Gumball in the 1:40 - I’m just a bit irritated that his price has dropped 2pts this morning….
In theory he’s held by Fusil Raffles on their Uttoxeter run - but he was very fresh that day and made a complete mess of the second last.
Prior to that mistake, I thought he was travelling better than Fusil - and if the ground does deteriorate, I think he will have his measure.
Quel Destin could be hard to beat - though it’s a big ask for a chasing debutante.
For the Matrix, I’ll save on Zarkareva.
On form she’s not good enough - but she is improving - and the fact Henry De Bromhead has sent her over, means she has to be respected.
Win, lose or draw, The Russian Doyen is simply too big a price in 2:15, at 20/1.
You need at least 7lb in hand to win a race of this nature - and he could easily be a mid 140s horse (he runs today off 137).
By contrast, most of the market leaders are already rated in the mid 150s.
If they are to win, they will need to be graded class (which is possible - if a little unlikely).
The exception is Saint Sonnet.
He’s rated 147 - and could easily be a mid 150s horse.
He was too short a price early in the week (4/1) - but at 13/2, I think he’s a fair bet.
The defection of Tea Clipper is a bit of a blow as he was making the market in the 2:50 - and I didn’t really fancy him.
There was a temptation to skip the race, but I do fancy Golan Fortune (again !).
He couldn’t quite get there at Aintree last week - but softer ground, a stiffer course - and a first time visor could easily result in a few pounds of improvement.
There are quite a few I don’t fancy - so I’m prepared to go with a half matrix, adding in Whos My Jockey (who looks overpriced ) - and Mrs Milner (who is a definite danger).
Whatsupwithyou, is another one whose price has been hit this morning (3:25).
I think he’s a reasonable bet to reverse form from last time, with Captain Tom Cat - so it’s a question of whether he’s good enough to beat Son of Camas.
It’s hard to know on that one.
As I said in the preview, Son of Camas probably has the natural ability to win - but there are also a lot of question marks surrounding him.
Whatsupwithyou is much more straightforward - and therefore worth a small play.
I was never going to get involved in the 3:55 - though even my small (unofficial) play on Colours of life has been scuppered by Pricewise putting her up !
There looks to be a slight chance that Elle Est Belle will drift to a price where she could be of interest.
At around 4/1, I’d certainly be tempted to take a risk.
It was the same at Punchestown - though in truth, there was nothing I particularly fancied there.
As a consequence, the focus is all on Cheltenham…
My assumption is that there will be a fair bit of rain - though we can only guess on how much.
If there is too much, it may see the withdrawal of some of the fancied horses which I’ve opposed (Tea Clipper has already been taken out of the staying hurdle).
That will mean that margins on the suggested bets will get even tighter…
Anyway, I ended up attacking 4 of the races - fingers crossed for a bit of luck today !
Cheltenham
I was never going to get involved with the opening juvenile hurdle (12:30) - though I’m a bit surprised to see Adagio as big as 8/1 on the exchanges.
I may take a small risk on him at that price.
I can’t see an angle into the 1:05.
Lamanver Pippin is handicapped to win - but I don’t know if he will be fully fit, so can’t get involved at 5/1.
Kilfilum Cross has almost certainly been targeted at the race - but he has nothing in hand of his mark.
I’d expect him to place - but he has to be vulnerable from a win perspective.
Most of the others can be given half chances, depending on the ground and how the race pans out…
I like Gumball in the 1:40 - I’m just a bit irritated that his price has dropped 2pts this morning….
In theory he’s held by Fusil Raffles on their Uttoxeter run - but he was very fresh that day and made a complete mess of the second last.
Prior to that mistake, I thought he was travelling better than Fusil - and if the ground does deteriorate, I think he will have his measure.
Quel Destin could be hard to beat - though it’s a big ask for a chasing debutante.
For the Matrix, I’ll save on Zarkareva.
On form she’s not good enough - but she is improving - and the fact Henry De Bromhead has sent her over, means she has to be respected.
Win, lose or draw, The Russian Doyen is simply too big a price in 2:15, at 20/1.
You need at least 7lb in hand to win a race of this nature - and he could easily be a mid 140s horse (he runs today off 137).
By contrast, most of the market leaders are already rated in the mid 150s.
If they are to win, they will need to be graded class (which is possible - if a little unlikely).
The exception is Saint Sonnet.
He’s rated 147 - and could easily be a mid 150s horse.
He was too short a price early in the week (4/1) - but at 13/2, I think he’s a fair bet.
The defection of Tea Clipper is a bit of a blow as he was making the market in the 2:50 - and I didn’t really fancy him.
There was a temptation to skip the race, but I do fancy Golan Fortune (again !).
He couldn’t quite get there at Aintree last week - but softer ground, a stiffer course - and a first time visor could easily result in a few pounds of improvement.
There are quite a few I don’t fancy - so I’m prepared to go with a half matrix, adding in Whos My Jockey (who looks overpriced ) - and Mrs Milner (who is a definite danger).
Whatsupwithyou, is another one whose price has been hit this morning (3:25).
I think he’s a reasonable bet to reverse form from last time, with Captain Tom Cat - so it’s a question of whether he’s good enough to beat Son of Camas.
It’s hard to know on that one.
As I said in the preview, Son of Camas probably has the natural ability to win - but there are also a lot of question marks surrounding him.
Whatsupwithyou is much more straightforward - and therefore worth a small play.
I was never going to get involved in the 3:55 - though even my small (unofficial) play on Colours of life has been scuppered by Pricewise putting her up !
There looks to be a slight chance that Elle Est Belle will drift to a price where she could be of interest.
At around 4/1, I’d certainly be tempted to take a risk.
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