It’s the final day of the Cheltenham November meeting tomorrow, and the action will be supplement by a quality card from Punchestown.
There are also NH meetings at both Fontwell and Cork - with the Southern National, the feature at the former track.
The rain finally arrived at Cheltenham this afternoon - and I’ve little doubt that the ground will be genuinely soft tomorrow.
Todays racing showed the importance of good jockeyship, with both Robbie Power and Paddy Brennan winning races that they perhaps shouldn’t have done, because of their pace judgement.
The rotten run of luck continues, for the suggested bets.
It’s getting to almost unbelievable levels for the Best bets (and even worse for the Matrix !).
However, I’ve simply got to ignore it and press on with my selection methods, believing it will turn (which it will !).
In terms of bets tomorrow, then I suspect it will be lighter than I originally expected.
Most of the days races are relatively uncompetitive, with small fields - so unless I can find an angle, they’ll end up watching races…
Cheltenham
1:15
Hopefully, we’ll get to see The Big Breakaway make his chasing debut in this.
He was supposed to run at Newbury last week - but was pulled out on account of quick ground.
I doubt that will be a problem tomorrow !
He was the best of these over hurdles - and always looked a chaser in the making.
Receiving weight from all bar one of his rivals, he should prove very hard to beat…
Wolf of Wendlesham impressed on his chasing debut at Fakenham, last month.
He was decent hurdler a few seasons back - but has clearly had issues.
However, he appeared to have put those behind him, with a comfortable win.
That said, he’s not really in the same class as The Big Breakaway - and he would also prefer decent ground (which I doubt he’ll get !).
Doc Penfrue should have no issue with the ground.
He was an improver over hurdles last season - and is only rated 8lb inferior to The Big Breakaway.
He’s already 8 - but has relatively few miles on the clock and could easily improve for fences.
1:50
Discorama looks very interesting in this, off a mark just 2lb higher than the one he ran from when third to The Conditional, at the Cheltenham festival.
That’s strong form - and it looks significant that Paul Nolan has brought him back over, to contest this race.
He should be fit, following a run at Galway last month - and will have no issues with the softening ground.
He sets a very solid standard for the others to aim at…
Captain Drake will not be wanting for stamina tomorrow.
He finished second in last seasons Midland Grand national - over 4m2f in heavy ground !
He won over hurdles on his seasonal debut, so will be fit.
He also retains Bryan Carver in the saddle - and he’s very good value for his 5lb claim (as we saw with his ride on Magic Saint, on Friday).
Ramses de Teille is another one of interest.
He spent most of last season over hurdles, where he performed at a high level in novice events.
He’s just as good over fences though - and gets to run tomorrow off a mark just 5lb higher than he ran off when second in the 2018 Welsh National.
He needs soft ground to be seen at his best, so the rain will be a big plus for his chances.
2:25
Defi de Seuil is the one to beat in this,
He proved himself the best 2 mile chaser around last season, with 3 consecutive wins - prior to bombing at the Cheltenham festival.
His performance that day was inexplicable - he was sent off at 2/5 - and should have won.
However, they are not machines and for whatever reason, he didn’t perform.
He took this race on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and if he’s back in the same form tomorrow, then on ground he will relish, he’ll take some beating…
Put the Kettle on also won at this meeting 12 months ago - and followed that up, by taking the Arkle.
She was relatively unfancied that day - but made all and battled on gamely.
She’ll doubtless attempt to make all again tomorrow - but on ground that may not suit her, she could just set up the race for a finisher.
Rouge Vif was massively impressive when wining a handicap at the October meeting off top weight.
An 8lb rise, meant connections had little choice other than to pitch him into a graded race.
However, he too may not be as well suited by tomorrows soft ground - whilst the form of his win took a few knocks, in a similar race on Friday.
Rideronthestorm will have no issue with the ground - though he may find the trip on the short side.
He improved massively last season - but over an extra half mile.
It’s not impossible that he will find the pace to be competitive at the minimum trip - but equally, it’s not guaranteed.
3:00
Proschema was sent off a very short priced fav for a warm race at Wetherby on his seasonal debut, last month.
He ran really well - but bumped into one, in the shape of Anemoi and came off second best.
He’s been raised 3lb for his troubles - but a flat rating of 102, suggests he could still have at least 10lb in hand of his new hurdles mark (131).
If it turns into a real slog, that would be a worry for an ex flat horse - but otherwise I would expect him to run very well.
Tegerak was a good winner at the October meeting, powering up the hill to beat One True King.
He got an 8lb rise for that win - but the runner up advertised the form by going close yesterday.
Kevin Brogan keeps the ride - and he’s excellent value for his 7lb claim.
I would also expect the horse to have no issue if the ground turns very soft.
It’s nearly 3 years, since Hunter Call did TVB a massive favour when bolting up in a competitive race at Ascot.
He’s a particularly fragile horse and has only run twice since then - winning on his return and finishing fourth in the Galway hurdle.
The latter run suggested that maybe the handicapper has caught p with him - but I suspect he’s got one more big day in him.
He’s 10 now - and Olly Murphys stable hasn’t been in sparkling form lately, but I still wouldn’t want to dismiss him too quickly…
Thinking makes his UK debut for David Pipe in this race - after just 1 run over hurdles in France !
To say he’s a dark one, is an under-statement !
Pipe won the corresponding race with Dell ‘Arca a few years back, when he was making his UK debut - so it can be done.
Whether he will get up a double, is anybodys guess !
Ballinsker is almost as bizarre a runner…
He’s had just 3 runs over hurdles - all in novice events.
What’s odd with him, is that running in such a race with so little experience, isn’t Evan Williams normal ‘modus operandi’.
The trainer obviously won todays big handicap - whilst Ballinsker finished just ahead of Stimulating song (who won today), when runner up to Milkwood, last time at Ffos Las.
3:35
It’s hard to see past Third Time Lucki in this.
He finished fourth in last seasons champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival - and has taken well to hurdles this season, winning both of his races.
This represents a step up in grade - but based on his bumper form, he should be more than up to the task.
Courtandbould looks the most obvious danger.
He stepped up to graded company on his most recent outing and did well to follow home the potentially top class McFabulous.
A 6lb rise in his rating, means that he is now rated 12lb superior to Third TIme lLucki - but the last named has a lot more scope for improvement.
It also won’t work in his favour, that he likes to front run - but could well face competition for the lead from For Pleasure.
Fidellio Vallis is third on the list.
He’s been steadily improving over hurdles and put up his best effort last time out, when third to Mrs Hyde in a listed race at Kempton.
As that was his seasonal debut, I would expect him to improve - and assuming he handles the soft ground (which he should), I could see him running a big race.
4:05
The meeting ends with what is traditionally a good quality bumper.
Best Mate made his debut in this very race 21 year ago - and I was there to see it !
I even backed him based purely on looks - and he won at 16/1 :)
Anyway, enough of the memories !
It seems significant that Gordon Elliott sends over Weseekhimhere for this.
He’s one of only 3 runners that Elliott has run at the meeting (Tiger Roll and Duffle Coat, were the other 2).
Weseekhimhere won at the Galway festival - and then followed up at Listowel.
That represents much stronger form than any of his UK rivals can muster, so it’s no surprise to see him installed a short price favourite.
Ofcourse there is a chance that one of his opponents will be able to find sufficient improvement to beat him - but it’s guesswork as to which one that might be…
Grandeur D’Ame is the most obvious contender - particularly as his debut win was achieved on heavy.
The other two worth considering are Good risk at All (whose trainer, Sam Thomas, is going really well this season) and Onward Route, who is a rare runner at Cheltenham for Rebecca Menzie.
Punchestown
There is some high quality racing at Punchestown tomorrow, with 3 graded races and a listed one.
However, they have all drawn small, relatively uncompetitive fields - and it’s hard to see much of an angle into any of them…
12:35
I did think there might be a route into this race, as on first watching, I wasn’t overly impressed by Latest Exhibition’s effort, when he made a successful chasing debut, 3 weeks ago.
He was a high class novice hurdler last season - but I thought he was a touch fortunate to win on his chasing debut.
However, on second viewing, I think I might have read it wrong !
He travelled nicely enough throughout, that day - and I reckon his jockey simply didn’t want him to have a hard race.
That being the case, then I would expect him to show improvement tomorrow - and his natural ability will make him very hard to beat.
Pencilfuloflead is probably his most dangerous rival.
He won well on his chasing debut at Galway last month, and if he has improved from that, he could give Latest Exhibition a race.
Court Maid has looked a much improved performer this season, since sent chasing. It will be interesting to see how she fares tomorrow, up in grade.
2:10
Superficially at least, this appears to be a match, between Saint Roi and Abracadabras.
Both performed with huge credit at last seasons Cheltenham festival: with Saint Roi winning the country hurdle on only his third start for Willie Mullins: and Abracadabras finishing second to the brilliant Shishkin in the Supreme novices hurdle.
Both have run once this season, with Saint Roi enhancing his reputation courtesy of comfortable win at Tipperary; whist Abracadabras disappointed when beaten by Aspire Tower at Down Royal.
Maybe unsurprisingly, the betting favours Saint Roi - but it’s hard to choose between the pair.
However, I think there may possibly be an upset…
Jason the Militant is likely to get an uncontested lead - and that could be dangerous, if his rivals allow him too much rope.
Coeur Sublime is also of some interest on his debut for Gearoid O’Loughlin.
He was trained by Gordon Elliott last season and was hugely impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Down Royal, 12 months ago.
On the back of that - and a subsequent third placing in a grade 1 over Christmas - he was sent off at just 12/1 for last seasons Champion hurdle.
His fitness has to be taken on trust - but tomorrows small field should suit him well.
If he is ready to do himself justice, then he would be massively overpriced at 20/1…
Fontwell
3:15
The Southern National is the high-light of the Fontwell season - so it’s disappointing that it’s only drawn a field of 7 runners…
Christmas in April has been installed race favourite and that’s perfectly reasonable.
He has decent form over marathon trips and in soft ground - and is young enough to still be improving.
The question mark with him concerns his fitness - but if he is sufficiently tuned on his seasonal debut, he will be hard to beat.
Fitness is unlike to be an issue for Cloudy Glen - even though he is also making his seasonal debut. However, the extended trip - and his fencing, may both cause him issues.
Gangster was disappointing last time in the Durham National - but if that run can be ignored, he would have a chance.
Cheek pieces are reapplied tomorrow - presumably to wake him up a bit - and if he responds positively to those and the slower surface, then he could go close.
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