Todays Suggested bets
The generally small fields, mean there are very few betting opportunities today...
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
1:50
Ramses de Teille 5 units win 11/2 (MP 9/2)
Captain Drake 2 units win 5/1 (MP 9/2)
Best Bets
Cheltenham
1:50
Ramses de Teille 0.5pt win 11/2 (MP 9/2)
There was a lot of rain at Cheltenham yesterday and the going
is now soft (heavy in places, on the hurdles course).
That has resulted in a raft of non-runners - and the generally small fields, have now become tiny…
Realistically, there were only 2 races in which I was going to be able to get involved - and one of them, the Greatwood hurdle, looks a complete lottery (made worse by the rain).
I did have quite a strong view on the the other - but 3 non runners has reduced margins, so I’ve had to back off from my original plan…
Cheltenham
The Big Breakaway should really win the opening contest (1:15).
He was potentially different class to his rivals over hurdles - and has apparently schooled very well over fences.
Ofcourse, there are plenty of doubts: he is making his seasonal debut, as well as his chasing debut - and he is very short in the betting - but there’s nothing that stands out to take him on with.
Doc Penfro is probably the one I’d be most interested in - but there’s a lot of guesswork involved with him...
I was happy to narrow the 1:50 down to 3 (as covered in the preview) - and was hoping I could find a way, at least for the Matrix, to get all 3 on side.
However, 3 of those that I didn’t fancy, have been declared NRs - so the margins on the prices have all reduced.
Discorama is the fancy that I had to let go of. 9/4 is too short - even though I think he’s the right fav.
It’s harder to choose between Ramses de Teille and Captain Drake.
However, I’m hopeful that Ramses will get an uncontested lead - and that coupled with Captains slightly suspect jumping, persuaded me in favour of the former.
As for the other 3: I wouldn’t want West Approach on my side in a battle up the hill; whilst I’d expect Yala Enki to improve for the run - and Big River is just a bit slow !
Defi du Seuil should win the 2:25.
Without the NRs, he may have been 2/1 - and I would have been very tempted at that price.
I can’t really argue with a price of 11/8 (I certainly wouldn’t offer bigger !) - but as we know, there is always an element of ‘randomness’ in a race, and it’s just too short for me to be getting involved.
If the previous race was too obvious - the 3:00 looks impossible !
It honesty wouldn’t surprise me, if any of the runners, bar 2 or 3, were to win.
I make Tegerek the most likely winner - but he’s now favourite - and 9/2 is too short in a race of this nature.
Thinking and Hunters Call would be interesting - if supported - but both could end up crazy prices, if connections don’t fancy them.
As tempting as it was to get involved (with so few other suitable races) - I feel that watching has to be the right thing to do…
Third Time Lucki looks too short at Even money in the 3:35 - though he could easily be much better than his opponents.
It’s a bit like The Big Breakaway in the opener - I can fully understand the price - and whilst it feels too skinny, he is the most likely winner and nothing stands out to oppose him with…
My only thought on the last, is that Onward Route may be a bit of value at 28/1 - but I’m guessing !
Punchestown
I made my decision last night, not to oppose Latest Exhibition in the 12:35.
Like The Big Breakaway and Third Time Lucki, the price is short - but he is the most likely winner, by some margin...
I did toy with the idea of having a small play (a couple of Matrix units) on Coeur Sublime in the Morgiana (2:10).
I do think he is theoretical value at 20/1 - and if he was still trained by Gordon Elliott and the race was being run on decent ground, I’d probably have made him a Best bet.
However, his new trainer may not have him fully tuned - and even if he has, the heavy ground is a big question mark.
Jason the Militant might be able to steal the race whilst the big 2 play cat and mouse - but all things being equal, it’s likely to end up a shoot out between Abracadabras and Saint Roi.
Fontwell
I’ve no strong view on the Southern National (3:15).
Christmas in April should win if he is ready to do himself justice.
If he’s not, it’s a pretty open race, in which all of the runners could be given a chance of sorts…
That has resulted in a raft of non-runners - and the generally small fields, have now become tiny…
Realistically, there were only 2 races in which I was going to be able to get involved - and one of them, the Greatwood hurdle, looks a complete lottery (made worse by the rain).
I did have quite a strong view on the the other - but 3 non runners has reduced margins, so I’ve had to back off from my original plan…
Cheltenham
The Big Breakaway should really win the opening contest (1:15).
He was potentially different class to his rivals over hurdles - and has apparently schooled very well over fences.
Ofcourse, there are plenty of doubts: he is making his seasonal debut, as well as his chasing debut - and he is very short in the betting - but there’s nothing that stands out to take him on with.
Doc Penfro is probably the one I’d be most interested in - but there’s a lot of guesswork involved with him...
I was happy to narrow the 1:50 down to 3 (as covered in the preview) - and was hoping I could find a way, at least for the Matrix, to get all 3 on side.
However, 3 of those that I didn’t fancy, have been declared NRs - so the margins on the prices have all reduced.
Discorama is the fancy that I had to let go of. 9/4 is too short - even though I think he’s the right fav.
It’s harder to choose between Ramses de Teille and Captain Drake.
However, I’m hopeful that Ramses will get an uncontested lead - and that coupled with Captains slightly suspect jumping, persuaded me in favour of the former.
As for the other 3: I wouldn’t want West Approach on my side in a battle up the hill; whilst I’d expect Yala Enki to improve for the run - and Big River is just a bit slow !
Defi du Seuil should win the 2:25.
Without the NRs, he may have been 2/1 - and I would have been very tempted at that price.
I can’t really argue with a price of 11/8 (I certainly wouldn’t offer bigger !) - but as we know, there is always an element of ‘randomness’ in a race, and it’s just too short for me to be getting involved.
If the previous race was too obvious - the 3:00 looks impossible !
It honesty wouldn’t surprise me, if any of the runners, bar 2 or 3, were to win.
I make Tegerek the most likely winner - but he’s now favourite - and 9/2 is too short in a race of this nature.
Thinking and Hunters Call would be interesting - if supported - but both could end up crazy prices, if connections don’t fancy them.
As tempting as it was to get involved (with so few other suitable races) - I feel that watching has to be the right thing to do…
Third Time Lucki looks too short at Even money in the 3:35 - though he could easily be much better than his opponents.
It’s a bit like The Big Breakaway in the opener - I can fully understand the price - and whilst it feels too skinny, he is the most likely winner and nothing stands out to oppose him with…
My only thought on the last, is that Onward Route may be a bit of value at 28/1 - but I’m guessing !
Punchestown
I made my decision last night, not to oppose Latest Exhibition in the 12:35.
Like The Big Breakaway and Third Time Lucki, the price is short - but he is the most likely winner, by some margin...
I did toy with the idea of having a small play (a couple of Matrix units) on Coeur Sublime in the Morgiana (2:10).
I do think he is theoretical value at 20/1 - and if he was still trained by Gordon Elliott and the race was being run on decent ground, I’d probably have made him a Best bet.
However, his new trainer may not have him fully tuned - and even if he has, the heavy ground is a big question mark.
Jason the Militant might be able to steal the race whilst the big 2 play cat and mouse - but all things being equal, it’s likely to end up a shoot out between Abracadabras and Saint Roi.
Fontwell
I’ve no strong view on the Southern National (3:15).
Christmas in April should win if he is ready to do himself justice.
If he’s not, it’s a pretty open race, in which all of the runners could be given a chance of sorts…
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