It’s day 2 of the Cheltenham November meeting tomorrow - and the quality of the racing steps up a notch (or two !).
However, most of the races are fiercely competitive - and the threat of potentially significant rain, means we can currently only guess on the state of the ground…
It was interesting that after winning on Protektorat, Harry Skelton said that it was already riding quite soft.
If the forecast rain does materialise, I suspect we’ll be looking at genuinely soft ground - or even worse.
Whilst Cheltenham is obviously the main meeting of the day - there’s a fair card at Punchestown, which feature a couple of decent chases.
The meetings at Wetherby and Uttoxeter aren’t too bad either…
I’ll preview as much as time allows - though my focus will be very much on Prestbury Park.
Cheltenham
12:30 (Class 1)
The card opens with a 4 year old hurdle - and the state of the ground is likely to have a big bearing on the result…
Hell Red has been installed a short priced favourite on the back of his debut win for Paul Nichols.
He finished second on heavy, on his sole start in France - so there is every reason to think he would handle very soft ground (if that’s how it ends up).
He has a little to find with Duffle Coat on ratings - but greater scope for improvement.
Duffle Coat is second fav - and he is unbeaten in 3 starts over hurdles.
However, he has to concede a 5lb penalty to all of his rivals - and that will be a tough ask.
He’s also unproven on soft ground…
Adagio is the third of the big players.
He won well on his debut for David Pipe at Warwick - and has also won on the flat, in heavy in France.
Of those at a bigger price, I’m most drawn to Balko Saint.
He’s finished runner up on his 2 starts so far - but I could see him improving as he gains experience…
1:05 (Class 3)
Kilfilum Cross sets the standard in this, based on his fine second to Milan Native, at last years Cheltenham festival.
However, he runs off a mark 3lb higher tomorrow - so there is minimal wriggle room for him.
From a handicapping perspective, it’s quite easy to argue that Lamanver Pippin has at least 7lb in hand of his current mark.
He finished third in last years NH chase at the festival, splitting horses rated 153 and 138.
The suggestion is he ran to a rating of around 140 that day.
It can also be argued that he ran to a similar rating in his previous race, when winning at Chepstow.
He gave 10lb and a 5 length beating to Fortescu. That one is now rated 128 - suggesting that Lamanvar should be rated around 143.
As he will actually run off a mark of 132, his chance is there for all to see.
However, he will be making his seasonal debut tomorrow, so his fitness has to be taken on trust…
What a Moment won the corresponding race 3 years ago, off a mark 12lb higher than he runs off tomorrow.
Again, the case for him is quite obvious - though there are question marks surrounding his current well being…
1:40 (Class 1)
This is an absolutely cracking novice chase - in which all 6 runners can be given some kind of a chance.
Fusil Raffles was seriously impressive when winning at the October meeting - and is an understandable favourite.
However, significant rain would be a major negative for him (in fact, if it got really bad, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him withdrawn).
Eldorado Allen was impressive when wining on his chasing debut at Newton Abbot, last month - but on hurdles form, he shouldn’t beat Quel Destin.
He gave Eldorado Allen 3lb and a 10 length beating at Kempton, in February - and if he can reproduce that form over fences, he’s the one to beat.
He will also have no issue with soft ground - and is fit from a recent run on the flat.
Zarkerena was no match for most of these over hurdles - but as is the case with so many of Henry de Bromheads, she’s stepped up massively for a switch to fences.
As a 4 year old mare, she gets lots of weight from her rivals - and it’s very interesting that De Bromhead considers her good enough to run in the race.
She is however, unproven on soft ground…
Gumball will have no issue with soft ground - and he won well at Uttoxeter last time.
However, prior to that, he had been well beaten on his chasing debut at the same course, by Fusil Raffles.
It’s not impossible that he will reverse the form - though it will be a big ask.
Soft ground could be an issue for Le Patriote - though if he handles it, he has a chance.
He beat Pic D’Orhy last time at Market Rasen - and that could well be good form.
2:15 (Class 1)
This is a hell of a race - as you’d kind of expect !
I suggested The Russian Doyen on Monday, as an ante-post selection - and I still like the look of him.
That said, I was hoping that a few of his rivals might drop out, to make his task a bit easier !
He still strikes me as a well handicapped, potentially progressive horse - who should handle conditions just fine (whatever they may be !).
He should also be fit enough to do himself justice - and at 16/1 remains a value play…
Saint Sonnet looks a big danger, based on his seventh place in last seasons Marsh chase.
That was only his second run in the UK - and it looked to me as if he was going better than Mr Fisher, turning in.
With an 8lb pull in the weights - and a summer on is back, I would fancy him to reverse the form.
Soft ground would also be a slight concern for Mr Fisher, as it was thought that he wanted good ground (though he has some decent form on soft).
Al Dancers form from last season looks strong - and he may improve for a step up in trip.
I don’t think he’ll have a problem with soft ground - though a mark of 154 doesn’t leave much room for manoeuvre.
Happy Diva won the correspond g race 12 months ago.
She runs off an 8lb higher mark tomorrow - and whilst that may stop her from winning, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if she were to go close.
Domain de L’isle is the final one worthy of a mention.
He caught my eye last time, when running on well over hurdles. I marked him down as one to look out for back over fences - though I didn’t really expect his next race to be the Paddy Power gold cup !
I suspect the opposition will be a bit too strong for him - but he’s definitely worth keeping a close eye on.
2:50 (Class 1)
I suggested Golan Fortune as a Best bet last Saturday, when he was heavily supported at Aintree, but could only finish fourth.
It’s interesting that he’s turned out again quickly here, as he won this race 12 months ago (off a mark just 2lb higher).
He has previously run - and won - twice in a a week, so I doubt the quick return will be an issue.
I also think he will also be better suited by tomorrows race (he lacked a bit of pace, last weekend).
In short, I think he has a decent chance…
Mrs Milner looks a very interesting runner - and unsurprisingly, she has already been well backed.
Her trainer, Paul Nolan, hasn’t run a horse at the Cheltenham November meeting for 10 years - but he has a reasonable record with those that has brought over - 2 from 8 (thanks to Chris for that info !).
Mrs Milner looks the type to improve for a step up to 3 miles - though heavy ground would be a slight concern.
Dell ‘Arca has been at the top of his game recently, winning his 2 most recent races.
On his best form he is still handicapped to win - but he’ll be 12 in a couple of months time.
More significantly, this is a stronger race than the ones he’s recently won - so he’ll be doing well if he does manage to complete his hatrick.
Whos my Jockey is another who’s run in the past week.
He ran as recently as Monday - and performed really well at Kempton.
He’s unproven on the back of a quick turnaround - but he’s sliding down the handicap, and should have no issue with conditions.
Provided he’s not gone backwards in the past 5 days, I could see him running well.
3:25 (Class 3)
All things being equal, I think Son of Camas should be hard to beat in this.
He has some very decent novice form from last season - including a defeat of King Roland and a third placing in the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle.
The trouble is, all things may not be equal…
I’m not sure he will relish an extended trip on soft ground - particularly on his seasonal debut - whilst the fact he’s undergone 2 recent wind ops, just increases the concerns.
He would be tempting at a price - but at 5/2 and shortening, that boat has long since sailed…
Captain Tom Cat was an impressive winner at the October meeting - and he definitely has a chance of following up off a mark just 6lb higher.
I think the key to him that day was the longer trip - so provided he can handle the likely softer ground, I would expect him to run really well.
Whatsupwithyou finished 5 lengths behind Captain Tom Cat last time - but he was making his seasonal debut.
I would expect him to improve for that run and get much closer tomorrow.
His win at Ascot last December, shows that he can handle heavy ground - so rain wouldn’t be an issue for him.
3:55 (Class 1)
You would need to watch a lot of races, before you saw something win more easily than Elle est Belle did at Aintree, last time.
She cantered through her race and won by 5 lengths, hard held.
In fairness, it wasn’t the most competitive contest ever run - but she recorded fair numbers, in addition to the striking visuals…
She couldn’t be backed at 13/8 - but she should provide an interesting watch…
The betting suggest that Ucanaver and Ishkhara Lady will be her main rivals - and that may be the case.
However, there is way too much guesswork required to be confident about anything…
I won’t be getting involved with the race officially, but I may have a small bet on Colours of My Life.
She shaped with some promise on her debut at Newbury in February - and it’s interesting that her connections pitch her into a race of this quality, on just her second run.
Punchestown
11:45
There won’t be many better races than this, run before midday this season !
This is a ridiculously strong novice chase - and whilst Asterion Forlonge is likely to be sent off a very short priced favourite - and is likely to win - I’ll be paying plenty of attention to the other runners in the contest.
He was sent off fav for last seasons Supreme novice hurdle, on the back of 2 impressive wins at Navan and Leopardstown.
He came up short on the big day - not helped by constantly jumping right.
It’s therefore not too surprising that he makes his chasing debut at right handed Punchestown.
He’s likely to take high rank amongst this seasons novices chasers - and will probably start his campaign, with a win in this.
That said, I suspect that Conflated, Midnight Run and School Boy Hours will all turn out to be very useful novice chasers.
The first 2 competed in grade 1 races as novice hurdlers last season - and whilst they didn’t quite make the grade, I suspect both will do better over fences.
Conflated ran third to Darver Star on his chasing debut last month and should be suited by the step up in trip tomorrow.
School Boy Hours finished second to Latest Exhibition on his seasonal debut last month - and was a little unfortunate not to win.
On the back of that run, I marked him down as one for big handicap - so I’ll be intrigued to see how he fares tomorrow.
He’s currently rated 134, so he probably won’t want to be finishing too close to Asterion !
12:15 (Grade 2)
This is a Grade 2 event - though in truth, it’s not that much stronger than the previous race (which is just a beginners chase)
Darver Star and Felix Desjy dominate the betting - and are likely to dominate the contest.
Darver Star finished third in last seasons champion hurdle - as a novice !
That was a huge performance - though probably said a fair bit about the strength of the Championship event…
That said, he is clearly high class - and he looked just as good over fences, when making a successful chasing debut at Punchestown last month.
He clearly sets a high standard - and would be an interesting ante-post proposition for the Arkle, if he weren’t already 8 (which is a bit old).
Felix Desjy wasn’t quite as good over hurdles - but he was no slouch either !
He won a grade 1 novice event at the 2018 Aintree National meeting - but missed all of last season.
However, he’s looked as good as ever in 3 runs this season - and his chasing debut last time, suggested he could be as good over fences as he was over hurdles.
He’s likely to attack from the off, and it’ll be fascinating to see whether Darver Star can live with him - and ultimately pick him off…
The other 5 runners look slightly outclassed - though Sizing Pottsie could run well, if he responds positively to a drop in trip.
12:50 (Grade B)
This is a completely unsolvable race - but it should be full of clues for the season ahead…
Willie Mullins runs 7 - with all of them making their seasonal debuts.
Jockey bookings suggest Tornado Flyer is his best hope - but the other 6 are also very interesting.
I quite like the look of Voix de Tiep. He ran Tornado Flyer to a length on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and is 10lb better off tomorrow.
That said, the race isn’t just about WIllie Mullins.
Gordon Elliott runs 3 - with Farclas, who is returning after an 18 moth absence, looking the most interesting of his trio.
There are quite a few other interesting ones to also consider - with Zero Ten probably top of the list.
He won a grade 3 event at Thurles in March - and had a pipe opener on the flat, couple of weeks ago.
It is a race literally chock full of potential improvers and should be watched closely - ideally, numerous times !
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