Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
3:35
The Grand Visir 5 units win 17/2
4:05
Princess T 2 units win 14/1
Best Bets
Cheltenham
3:35
The Grand Visir 0.5pt win 17/2
As I said in the preview, there were never going to be many
bets today - though I was still a bit surprised about how few I could
find…
I did have one ear-marked (Mossy Fen) - but the price was destroyed yesterday evening/early this morning - so I had to pull the plug on that.
Part of the issue , is that I don’t have a strong fancy in the one decent betting race of the day (1:50) - with that out of the equation, you are always going to be scratching around a bit for action.
I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet - plus an additional speculative Matrix bet.
Here’s the rationale
Cheltenham
Induno at 15/8 in an 18 runner handicap (1:15) - you’d think someone was having a laugh - or knows something…
History suggests the latter, as this race has been won by numerous ‘plot jobs’ in the past (a few of them trained by David Pipe).
In theory, there’s some value in Castle Robin, Tango Boy and Silent assistant - but not a lot - and there’s a fair bit of guesswork required.
The race has to be swerved…
Ballywood is quite tempting in the 1:50 at 8/1. He certainly looks the best ‘value’ in the race.
However, I’m not sure about him coming up the hill - and this could be a close fought race.
Fanion Destruval should probably be the bet: but 9/2 is tight (6/1 would tempt me in) - plus he’s trained by Venetia (and generally speaking, I’m trying to give her horses a miss !)
Mossy Fen was the bet in the 2:25 (and quite a strong one) - and I’m really disappointed the price has gone.
He was 7/1 on Thursday evening - which was massive.
I knew that would go - but thought 4/1 was feasible.
However too many have picked up that 4/1 was still ‘value’ - and he’s now down to 5/2…
That’s about right (maybe a bit tight) - and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift pre-race, he can’t be a bet now, at that price
If there’s an angle into the cross country race (3:00), it’s probably Little Bruce, EW.
You can’t oppose Easyland and Tiger Roll with any confidence - but something has to finish third and he could be the one.
33/1 EW (so 6/1 to finish third), is not a bad bet - if not an official one…
The sole Best bet on the day comes in the 3:35.
I’m not convinced by Does he Know under a 3lb penalty, against some progressive sorts.
Grand Mogul has a definite chance - but 5/2 is tight enough.
The Grand Visir is the bet though.
I mentioned he’d go close based on his flat form - but I watched his hurdles run at Worcester, from last October.
He finished third in that race, but travelled like the best horse.
His stamina cut out eventually - but it was over almost 3 miles and he was outstayed by 2 very useful sorts.
Back over 2m4f, I think he has a good chance of tracking Does he Know - and pouncing up the hill.
It was tempting to also leave the last race alone, as it looks a minefield. However, I think Princess T might be worth a tiny risk (for the Matrix).
She’s more exposed than most of the runners - but clearly progressing and the form of her last win, looks very good.
I think she’s been under-estimated in the betting, up against some less exposed types.
I did have one ear-marked (Mossy Fen) - but the price was destroyed yesterday evening/early this morning - so I had to pull the plug on that.
Part of the issue , is that I don’t have a strong fancy in the one decent betting race of the day (1:50) - with that out of the equation, you are always going to be scratching around a bit for action.
I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet - plus an additional speculative Matrix bet.
Here’s the rationale
Cheltenham
Induno at 15/8 in an 18 runner handicap (1:15) - you’d think someone was having a laugh - or knows something…
History suggests the latter, as this race has been won by numerous ‘plot jobs’ in the past (a few of them trained by David Pipe).
In theory, there’s some value in Castle Robin, Tango Boy and Silent assistant - but not a lot - and there’s a fair bit of guesswork required.
The race has to be swerved…
Ballywood is quite tempting in the 1:50 at 8/1. He certainly looks the best ‘value’ in the race.
However, I’m not sure about him coming up the hill - and this could be a close fought race.
Fanion Destruval should probably be the bet: but 9/2 is tight (6/1 would tempt me in) - plus he’s trained by Venetia (and generally speaking, I’m trying to give her horses a miss !)
Mossy Fen was the bet in the 2:25 (and quite a strong one) - and I’m really disappointed the price has gone.
He was 7/1 on Thursday evening - which was massive.
I knew that would go - but thought 4/1 was feasible.
However too many have picked up that 4/1 was still ‘value’ - and he’s now down to 5/2…
That’s about right (maybe a bit tight) - and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift pre-race, he can’t be a bet now, at that price
If there’s an angle into the cross country race (3:00), it’s probably Little Bruce, EW.
You can’t oppose Easyland and Tiger Roll with any confidence - but something has to finish third and he could be the one.
33/1 EW (so 6/1 to finish third), is not a bad bet - if not an official one…
The sole Best bet on the day comes in the 3:35.
I’m not convinced by Does he Know under a 3lb penalty, against some progressive sorts.
Grand Mogul has a definite chance - but 5/2 is tight enough.
The Grand Visir is the bet though.
I mentioned he’d go close based on his flat form - but I watched his hurdles run at Worcester, from last October.
He finished third in that race, but travelled like the best horse.
His stamina cut out eventually - but it was over almost 3 miles and he was outstayed by 2 very useful sorts.
Back over 2m4f, I think he has a good chance of tracking Does he Know - and pouncing up the hill.
It was tempting to also leave the last race alone, as it looks a minefield. However, I think Princess T might be worth a tiny risk (for the Matrix).
She’s more exposed than most of the runners - but clearly progressing and the form of her last win, looks very good.
I think she’s been under-estimated in the betting, up against some less exposed types.
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