Whilst it’s always great to see racing at Cheltenham, tomorrows card is a touch disappointing….
They’ve juggled the races around for the 3 day meeting - and although the Friday has always been the weakest of the 3 days, that’s become even more pronounced this year.
For a start, there are only 6 races - and 3 of them are novice events (a chase and 2 hurdles - one of which is a handicap).
There is also a conditional riders race - and a cross country race - meaning that there is just the one ‘normal’ handicap on the card (open to any horse/jockey).
Furthermore, that particular race has attracted a relatively small field, which can probably be narrowed down to the 5 market leaders…
As a consequence, I’m not expecting many bets on the day.
Certainly there are likely to be few Best bets - and I’m disinclined to force a lot of Matrix bets, when a fair amount of guesswork will be required.
Saturdays card looks much more suitable - so we just need to show a bit of patience: Whilst Sundays is likely to sit between the pair - but will be supplemented by action from elsewhere (most notably, Punchestown).
Just a reminder, that I plan to host a Live thread in the forum tomorrow afternoon, from 1:00.
Hopefully a few of you will join me and we can exchange thoughts, ideas and views !
Here are my early thoughts on tomorrows races - I’ll make a decision after 10:00 tomorrow, on any official bets….
Cheltenham
The ground is currently described as ‘good to soft’ - but there is some rain forecast
overnight.
It’s not a great deal however (that’s due on Saturday !) - so I’ll assume the ground will be riding just on the soft side…
1:15
The meeting opens with an 18 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdle - brilliant !
This race used to be run on the Sunday of the meeting - and was generally impossible to solve.
I can’t see that running it 2 days earlier will make things much easier !
David Pipe has a good record in the race and his Induno has to be on any short list.
I wasn’t particularly impressed with his efforts last season - but he’s only run 4 times in his life and could easily have improved since he was last seen.
His strength in the market will probably tell a story…
Almost the same can be said for Steal a March, who represents Nicky Henderson (and HM Queen !).
He was a little disappointing on his handicap debut last time - but could easily leave that behind tomorrow.
Silent Assassin is another unexposed sort from a big yard (Emma Lavelle), who may well have improved since he was last seen.
He looked well suited to a slog, so if there is more overnight rain than expected, that should suit him.
Tango Boy (Neil Mulholland) and Castle Robin (Charlie Longsdon) are the final 2 unexposed potential improvers - but with 5 of them in the race - and all likely to be relatively well backed, it makes it a hard race to play in.
If they all come up short (unlikely - but not impossible !), then Magic Dancer looks the most interesting of those with plenty of miles on the clock…
1:50
This should be the best betting race of the day - but I’m not really feeling it…
Of the 9 runners, 4 are relatively easily dismissed - but the 5 that remain, dominate the market.
Worse than that, it’s hard to side with any particular one - as they each have strengths and weaknesses…
Magic Saint heads the market - and the weights.
He’s not particularly well handicapped - but should be suited by the drop back to 2 miles. He’s also young enough to still be improving - and the booking of crack amateur Bryan Carver (instead of Harry Cobden), signals intent.
On the Slopes, Ballywood and Beat the Judge, all ran in a similar race to this, at the Cheltenham October meeting.
There was little between them that day - and it should be a similar case tomorrow.
My slight preference would be for On the Slopes - as he was making his seasonal debut - but I think he would be better over a little further.
Ballywood is a 2 miler - but I’m not convinced he’s a Cheltenham horse; whilst Beat the Judge has already run 4 times this season - so shouldn’t have much room for improvement (in terms of fitness).
Fanion D’estruval is the final one of interest.
He’s burst onto the scene 12 months ago when hacking up in a strong handicap Newbury.
He was then sent off 6/4 fav for a grade 2 race at Kempton.
He only managed 5th of the 6 in that - which appeared a little disappointing.
However, it was a particularly strong race - and he wasn’t beaten far.
I’d be little worried about him over the Cheltenham fences - but if he manages to negotiate them cleanly and is fit enough to do himself justice, he should be the one to beat.
2:25
Only 4 runners go to post for this - but it’s an interesting little contest…
Protektorat has been installed a short priced fav - and he was massively impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Carlisle last month.
He barely put a foot wrong that day - and you won’t see many more impressive fencing debuts.
That said, it was a relatively weak race - and he got into a great rhythm, jumping Carlisle’s accommodating fences.
Also, the race was over 2 miles - so it will be much harder for him to dominate in the same way, over over an extra half mile and the stiffer fences, at Cheltenham.
Southfield Stone sets a fair race standard - though he’s likely to have his work cut out giving weight to Protektorat.
Mossy Fen and Paint the Dream receive weight from both of their rivals.
Paint the Dream is relatively exposed - and whilst he’s a fair horse, he shouldn’t really be up to winning this (all things being equal).
Mossy Fen is far less exposed - having only run once previously over fences.
That was at the October meeting, when he finished a slightly disappointing fourth to Galvin.
However, he cuts back half a mile in trip tomorrow - and that should suit.
On hurdles form, he is just about the best horse in the race, at the weights - and he has plenty of scope for improvement.
The question marks concern his jumping - but he didn’t jump badly on his chasing debut (just not as well as Protektorat did !).
3:00
This looks an impossible race to play in.
All bar the top 3 horses will be carrying significantly more than the handicapper has allotted them - and they are all making their seasonal debuts.
The race really should be won by one of them - but when you have to guess on fitness (Tiger Roll has run recently on the flat), backing any of them at relatively short odds, makes limited appeal.
It’s made worse because there are good reasons why all 3 might not be at their peak (their main targets are likely to be later in the season).
Easyland is definitely the one to beat.
He was hugely impressive when beating Tiger Roll at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and is better off at the weights tomorrow !
It’s also reasonable to think he wouldn’t have been sent over from France, unless he is ready to do himself justice.
That said, the fact his stablemate Vino Royale, travels over with him, does create a slight doubt - and you don’t want too many of those in your mind if you are playing
at 4/6 !
Potters Corner, EW, could be a bet - if you knew he was fit (and not being prepped for an attempt to retain his Welsh National crown) - or maybe Little Bruce or Beau de Brizais (if they take to the course).
It’s all guesswork though - and I’m pretty confident I’ll be swerving this particular race, for official bets !
3:35
Again, plenty of guesswork and supposition, will be required to solve this particular puzzle !
Does he Know sets the form standard, courtesy of his win at the Cheltenham October meeting.
However, he is priced up accordingly, so it’s a question of whether one can be found to beat him…
Grand Mogul is the most obvious candidate - however, the betting is wise to that.
He disappointed in a couple of races last season - but there may have been good reason and he won nicely enough on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, last month.
Wild Romance, won a similar race, also at Chepstow, earlier in the month.
She stayed on really well to claim victory that day - and gets weight from all of her rivals tomorrow (almost a stone, from Does he Know).
However the form of her victory isn’t overly strong, so if she is to win tomorrow, she will need to have progressed again (which she may well have done).
A case can definitely be made for The Grand Visir - though it’s primarily based on his flat form…
He’s rated 103 on the flat - which should translate into a rating in the 140s, over jumps.
If he could run to that mark, then he would be hard to beat tomorrow.
The trouble is, in his 3 outings over hurdles, he’s not really approached that level…
4:05
A 17 runner novice handicap hurdle, provides a suitable ending to the day !
In truth, this is arguably harder to crack that the opener - as the runners can’t even be sorted into groups of ‘unexposed’ and ‘exposed’ !
Most of them are unexposed - and therefore capable of improvement and thus difficult to get a proper handle on.
I’ll offer 4 for a short-list - but not with huge confidence.
Top weight, One True King, looks the most solid option.
He ran really well to finish second in a fair handicap at the October meeting.
He was clearly fancied that day - and was probably unlucky to run into another who was just as well fancied !
A 2lb rise for his efforts is perfectly fair - though he has to give weight way to everything and there is a chance that one or two of his opponents will prove better handicapped.
Art Approval has only run twice in this country - finishing second on both occasions.
They were in 5 and 6 horse races - so tomorrows contest could be a bit of a culture shock for him !
If he copes with it - then he has the potential to run well.
Percys Word has only run 3 times over hurdles - with a near 2 year gap, following his debut run.
He’s finished placed on all 3 occasions however, and appears to have run to a similar level of form.
He makes his handicap debut tomorrow - and based on a flat rating of 91, could be well handicapped off a mark of 121.
Princess T has looked an improved performer this season - and took her form to a new level last time, when cheekpieces were applied.
She comfortably beat Kannapolis at Wincanton - and that one subsequently bolted up at Warwick last week.
Princess T got an 6lb rise for her win - but Kannapolis got 11lb for his ! - so if the 2 met again, she would be 5lb better off (having beaten him by 3 lengths !).
That suggests she may still be well handicapped…
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