It was real disappointment to see that the meeting scheduled for Huntingdon tomorrow, has been abandoned.
The Peterborough chase looked an absolute cracker - and whilst I hadn’t completely nailed it, I was well on my way ;)
As a consequence, there will now just be 3 meetings - and whilst there is a decent race - or two - taking place at each course, they stand out alongside relatively modest supporting races.
Having to look at 3 different venues, means I’ve got 3 times the headache, trying to figure out the state of the ground !
I think it cost us at Exeter on Friday - and again today, at both Sandown and Chepstow.
There’s obviously nothing I can do about it (I already spend many hours a day, pouring over weather forecasts !), but it is a frustrating situation.
From what I can tell, it should be on the soft side at Kelso: but heavy at both Irish venues.
Of course we’ll only get confirmation of that, once it’s too late !
Just a reminder that I will look to issue any bets tomorrow at 10:00 - assuming I feel the markets can take them…
Kelso
2:45
This is not as easy race to read - but I’ll give it a go !
Elf De Ray is the top rated horse in the field, courtesy of his third to the potentially top class Protektorat, at Carlisle in October.
He was beaten quite a long way that day - but the winner does look exceptional, so he probably lost little in defeat.
His subsequent run at the same course last month, was disappointing - and will need to be forgiven.
However, he jumped poorly that day, which was certainly a contributing factor.
He finished second in a grade 2 race over hurdles, behind Clondaw Caitlin on his final start last season - and that is good form.
If his jumping stand up to the test, then he could be hard to beat.
Mahlervous has been installed favourite on the back of his second place to Severano at Sandown.
That looked a big run at the time - and looks even better after Severanos romp at Exeter on Friday.
If the form can be taken at face value, then Mahlervous should win - but there is a slight doubt over its validity (Igor would have gone close in the same race, but he ran poorly on Friday).
Nadaitak would have a definite chance, based on his form over hurdles from a couple of seasons back.
He beat Truckers Lodge by 20 lengths in a Grade 2 hurdle at Doncaster - and that one is now rated 155.
Taken literally, that suggests Nadaitak should be a Gold cup horse !
Clearly that’s not the case - but could be a fair bit better than his current rating of 128.
The issue is that he was off the course for 18 months prior to his recent run at Aintree.
He didn’t shape with huge promise that day - but could easily do much better tomorrow, on his chasing debut.
In addition to Nadaitak, Ben Pauling also saddles One Touch - and David Bass rides him.
The suggestion is that he is the stables number one hope - though it’s harder to make a case for him, based on the form book.
3:20
Bigirononhiship won this race 12 months ago - and whilst he has to race from a mark 10lb higher tomorrow, I would still give him a fair chance.
He should be in peak condition, following a good second on his seasonal return at Ayr: whilst the test clearly suits him well…
Just the Type was runner up in the race last year - and he will meet the winner on 11lb better terms.
That should probably be sufficient to reverse the form - whilst his recent victory at Uttoxeter, showed he is in very good form.
Duc de Grissey is contesting favouritism with the 2 previously mentioned - but he has a very different profile.
He will be having only his third run over fences tomorrow - and just his second outside novice company.
The first came in the middle of October, when he finished a creditable fourth in the Durham National. He was staying on well, that day - suggesting tomorrows 4 mile trip won’t be an issue.
Bob Mahler caught my eye last time, travelling nicely in a strong race at Haydock.
He ended up being pulled up - but that was because his saddle slipped.
He’ll have no issue with tomorrows test - and whilst his mark is possibly a shade high, he did run third off it at least seasons Cheltenham festival.
Looking Well would have gone very close to winning this race 2 years ago, if he’d not fallen at the third last.
He made amends for that mishap, by winning on his next outing - but followed that up with another fall…
That was 18 months ago - and he didn’t run again, until he reappeared over hurdles last month.
He ran a nice race that day, staying on late to grab fourth place.
The cheekpieces are reapplied tomorrow - and whilst his handicap mark looks high enough, he definitely has a chance, if he’s back to his best.
Punchestown
1:40
The John Durken can sometime be a disappointing race - but assuming all 8 runners stand their ground, there will be few better chases run this season.
More than that, it’s a truly fascinating contest - pitching established stars against young up-and-comers.
It’s certainly not easy race to call - but it should be an absolutely revetting watch.
There can be little doubt, that if Min is in top shape, he will be very hard to beat.
A 6 time grade 1 winner, he has won the last 2 running of this race - and also won the Ryanair at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
That means, he is just about the best 2m4f horse around - when on his ‘A’ game…
That said, he is now pushing 11 - and there must be a chance that he won’t be fully tuned tomorrow.
If that is the case, he’s unlikely to win…
Chris’s Dream has been installed second favourite - but I’m not sure he is quite a grade 1 horse.
If he was, then he would have won last time at Down Royal (when I made him a Best bet !) - but he was edged out close home.
I felt that test was more suitable for him than tomorrows - and whilst he will undoubtedly run well - and probably place, I’ll be a bit surprised if he comes home in front…
As a consequence, the race could be there for the taking, by a second season novice - the question is which one…?
Battleoverdoyen was a revelation when wining a grade 2 chase at Down Royal on his seasonal reappearance.
He comfortably beat Samcro that day - so it’s a little surprising to see Jack Kennedy jocked up on the latter…
He will almost certainly have had the choice - so the suggestion is that he expects Samcro to reverse the form…
Samcro himself is a complete enigma: supremely talented on his day - but he doesn’t have as many days as he should.
He had one at Cheltenham in March, and was a very game winner of the Marsh chase.
He narrowly beat Melon that day - and there is little reason why that one should reverse the form tomorrow (as Samcro will have a fitness edge).
Allaho is the final second season novice, worthy of consideration. He ran a massive race when third in last seasons RSA.
He is a free going horse - and the drop back in trip is unlikely to be an issue for him.
That said, on his seasonal debut, he could prove vulnerable.
The 2 outsiders: Le Richburg and Tornado Flyer, would grace most races - but they are likely to be outclassed, in this particular contest…
Cork
1:25
It’s hard to seen beyond Chacun Pour Soi in this…
He is arguably the best 2 mile chaser currently in training - though he’s not really proved that when it matters.
He would have been sent off favourite, for last seasons Champion chase - but he was pulled out on the morning of the race, because of an injury.
Prior to that, he won a grade 1 chase at the Dublin racing festival - but Min was his main rival in that race and he’s not really a 2 miler…
That said, he faces nothing of Mins quality tomorrow - and whilst I don’t expect him to be fully wound up, he will probably be able to win, even if only 90% ready.
The betting suggest that Cash Back and Chosen Mate, should be his biggest dangers.
Both are second season novices, so should have scope for improvement - that said, they will certainly need to improve if they are to trouble Chacun.
Chosen Mate was an impressive winner of the Grand Annual at last seasons Cheltenham festival. However that is a handicap and he won it off a mark of 147. Chacun is rated 172 (25lb higher !).
Chosen Mate is now rated 156 - and Chacun has to concede him 8lb - but that still means there is 8lb between them, on official ratings…
It’s the same story with Cash Back, as he is also rated 156 - and receives 8lb from the favourite.
It’s not impossible that either one will beat Chcun - but for it to happen, he will need to run a fair bit below his best.
The other one worthy of a mention, is Durasso.
He’s not easy to get a handle on - but could still have improvement in him.
Tomorrow's trip is possibly on the short side for him - but the application of first time cheek pieces could sharpen him up.
He may not be able to beat Chacun, but he may represent a bit of value in the ‘w/o the fav’ market…
1:55
This is an interesting looking mares novice chase - though not an easy race to get a handle on…
Western Victory sets the standard on the back of a win at Clonmel and a third placing in a listed chase at the same venue.
Both are fair pieces of form - but they are not outstanding and Western Victory has to concede 4lb to all of her rivals.
Sapphire Lady is second favourite, on the back of a comeback win at Thurles in October.
She had been off the course for 18 months prior to that run - and was making her chasing debut.
However she was well fancied in the market and was ultimately an easy winner.
Scarlet and Dove and Mount Ida are closely matched on their recent run behind Yukon Lil, at Cork.
Scarlet and Dove came out on top in their personal battle that day - but there was only a length between them at the line, and I would expect it to be close again tomorrow.
I made Heaven Help Us a Best bet on the second day of my season, when she ran at Cork.
I fancied her that day - but she ran poorly - and has run poorly again, since.
Prior to the Cork run, she had won at Fairyhouse.
Jeremys Flame was sent off a very short priced favourite for that race - but fell at the first fence.
She followed that up by unseating her jockey at the final fence at Wexford.
It’s interesting that connections are persevering with her over fences after those 2 lapses.
She is still only 6 - and was just about the best of these over hurdles.
If she could get her jumping together, then it’s quite possible she could be good enough to win this race.
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