Todays Suggested bets
I want to
delay advising any bets in the Aintree 1:30 race.
I'll issue any suggested bets for that race at 10:00.
Matrix bets
Sandown
3:00
Regal Flow 8 units win 14/1
Shanroe Santos 2 units win 10/1
3:35
Jollys Cracked It 3 units win 7/1
Benson 2 units win 15/2
Aintree
12:55
Ballymoy 2 units win 10/1
3:15
Beau Bay 5 units win 25/1
Flying Angel 2 units win 12/1
Crievehill 2 units win 14/1
Might Bite 2 units win 12/1
Chepstow
1:57
Yalltari 5 units win 8/1
Saint Xavier 2 unit win 22/1
Lamanvar Pippin 2 units win 7/2
Best Bets
Sandown
3:00
Regal Flow 1pt win 14/1
Aintree
3:15
Beau Bay 0.5pt win 25/1
Chepstow
1:57
Yalltari 0.5pt win 8/1
I'll issue any suggested bets for that race at 10:00.
Matrix bets
Sandown
3:00
Regal Flow 8 units win 14/1
Shanroe Santos 2 units win 10/1
3:35
Jollys Cracked It 3 units win 7/1
Benson 2 units win 15/2
Aintree
12:55
Ballymoy 2 units win 10/1
3:15
Beau Bay 5 units win 25/1
Flying Angel 2 units win 12/1
Crievehill 2 units win 14/1
Might Bite 2 units win 12/1
Chepstow
1:57
Yalltari 5 units win 8/1
Saint Xavier 2 unit win 22/1
Lamanvar Pippin 2 units win 7/2
Best Bets
Sandown
3:00
Regal Flow 1pt win 14/1
Aintree
3:15
Beau Bay 0.5pt win 25/1
Chepstow
1:57
Yalltari 0.5pt win 8/1
I am putting up Le Breuil - but he is a best price of 5/1
with the bookmakers, despite the fact that he is available at 6/1 on the
exchanges for hundreds of pounds (and that has been the case for well over an
hour).
There is a still a small margin at 5/1 - but it is small.
By all means take 6/1 on the exchanges - but if you show patience, you should be able to beat 5/1 quite comfortably...
Matrix bets
Aintree
1:30
Le Breuil 5 units win 5/1
Coo Star Sivola 2 units win 8/1
Best Bets
Aintree
1:30
Le Breuil 0.5pt win 5/1 (MP 9/2)
There is a still a small margin at 5/1 - but it is small.
By all means take 6/1 on the exchanges - but if you show patience, you should be able to beat 5/1 quite comfortably...
Matrix bets
Aintree
1:30
Le Breuil 5 units win 5/1
Coo Star Sivola 2 units win 8/1
Best Bets
Aintree
1:30
Le Breuil 0.5pt win 5/1 (MP 9/2)
The fragility of the markets, was a big problem this
morning.
It regularly happens - and it doesn’t matter what time I tip.
The problem is, there are lots of other people tipping/betting in the same markets - and if my timing is just slightly off, a price can crash before I even issue.
That was the case with Yalltari, whom I assume someone else tipped, just before 9:00.
The price of Regal Flow was also more sensitive then I would have liked…
All I can say to those who missed the price, is that they are competitive handicaps, in which plenty of horses will be fancied.
I would expect both horses to drift back, at least close to their advised prices, before their respective races get underway…
Just a quick reminder that I will run a Live thread in the forum, this afternoon.
I’ll aim to get things under way, a little after midday…
Sandown
I can’t see an angle into the 1:50 race.
If forced, I’d side with Hitman, because I suspect the race will be set up for him.
That said, so much will depend on how the action unfolds.
If Allmankind gets an uncontested lead, he’ll probably win; if it is slightly contested, Hitman will be the choice; strongly contested, then Eldorado Allen could be the main beneficiary: whilst a suicidal pace and Phoenix Way could cause a shock !
It’s disappointing (in fact very disappointing !), to see Altior withdrawn from the days feature (2:25).
His absence should pave the way for a Politologue victory - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it !
Greanenteen now has a real chance - whilst at a big price, it’s far from impossible that Castlegrace Paddy could cause a shock, on ground he will relish.
I’m pretty keen on Regal Flow in the 3:00.
He may be 13 - but he is showing no signs of being in decline.
He has excellent form around Sandown - and will relish the trip/ground.
I’m also happy enough to take on a couple of suspect looking market leaders…
It’s worth saving on Santroe Santos for the Matrix - just in case Harry Cobden gets a tune out of him.
Hopefully, it won’t be needed though !
I originally planned to make Benson a Best bet in the 3:35 - but the more I looked a the race, the more fearful I became of Jollys Cracked it.
He is very well handicapped - and the booking of Kevin Brogan shows clear intent.
I couldn’t bring myself to swap camps completely - so I’ve covered them both with the Matrix.
There are also plenty of other potential dangers, so it’s not a race I want to go mad in…
Aintree
The 12:55 at Aintree, is another really trappy contest.
I probably like Hunters Call best - but he is vulnerable and 4/1 is too short.
There should be little between Mint Condition and Ballymoy, so at more than twice the price, the last named is worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I waited quite some time for the price of Le Breuil to drift to where it should be.
The bookmakers are incredibly quick to shorten horses in the betting - but very slow to push them back out.
At 6/1, he is a Best bet - and hopefully a few of you will achieve that.
I think there is minimal margin at 5/1 - but still a little.
In simple terms, I think he will win the race - regardless of field size and the obstacles to overcome !
If he is beaten by something, then it will most likely be Coo Star Sivola. He is worth a saver, for the Matrix.
As I said last night, I’ve no idea what will win the 2:05 - so I’m not going to offer any suggestions !
The 2:40 isn’t much easier to call - but for different reasons…
A bit like the Henry VIII chase at Sandown, I think this race will be decided by how things pan out in running.
If either Frodon or Native River get an uncontested lead, they will probably win; if they take each other on, then Santini should be able to take advantage (assuming he is sufficiently fit).
I really don’t get why Beau Bay is a 20/1+ shot in the 3:15.
He finished third in the race last year - is marginally better in the weights this time - and looks to have been targeted at it.
The only reason I can think, is because it’s a very competitive race - and there are a few in it with more ‘sexy’ profiles.
He’s certainly the main bet in the race - from a ‘value’ perspective.
However, it is also worth saving on Crievehill, Flying Angel and Might Bite, for the Matrix.
It may end up that I’ve missed the winner - but at least we’ll know we were on a good bet !
Chepstow
I did think that Yalltari had gone under the radar in the 1:57 - but that is not the case now !
He was 11/1 last night - a perfectly understandable price - and I didn’t envisage a problem putting him up this morning.
However, I was clearly not the only one who had latched on to him - and his price has been in free-fall since just before 9:00.
6/1 would be my absolute minimum price for him - and I would hope he’d end up a few points bigger than that.
He has a chance, because he is well handicapped and will love conditions - but he also has question marks over him.
For the Matrix, I think it is worth saving on Saint Xavier and Lamanvar Pippin.
The former is over-priced - whilst the latter is the most likely winner.
It’s disappointing to see St Barts a non-runner in the 2:32.
I liked him - but felt he was too short.
I would have been prepared to take him on with either Ask me Early or Thomas Macdonagh, if either was a decent price.
However, with him out of the race, they now head the market.
It regularly happens - and it doesn’t matter what time I tip.
The problem is, there are lots of other people tipping/betting in the same markets - and if my timing is just slightly off, a price can crash before I even issue.
That was the case with Yalltari, whom I assume someone else tipped, just before 9:00.
The price of Regal Flow was also more sensitive then I would have liked…
All I can say to those who missed the price, is that they are competitive handicaps, in which plenty of horses will be fancied.
I would expect both horses to drift back, at least close to their advised prices, before their respective races get underway…
Just a quick reminder that I will run a Live thread in the forum, this afternoon.
I’ll aim to get things under way, a little after midday…
Sandown
I can’t see an angle into the 1:50 race.
If forced, I’d side with Hitman, because I suspect the race will be set up for him.
That said, so much will depend on how the action unfolds.
If Allmankind gets an uncontested lead, he’ll probably win; if it is slightly contested, Hitman will be the choice; strongly contested, then Eldorado Allen could be the main beneficiary: whilst a suicidal pace and Phoenix Way could cause a shock !
It’s disappointing (in fact very disappointing !), to see Altior withdrawn from the days feature (2:25).
His absence should pave the way for a Politologue victory - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it !
Greanenteen now has a real chance - whilst at a big price, it’s far from impossible that Castlegrace Paddy could cause a shock, on ground he will relish.
I’m pretty keen on Regal Flow in the 3:00.
He may be 13 - but he is showing no signs of being in decline.
He has excellent form around Sandown - and will relish the trip/ground.
I’m also happy enough to take on a couple of suspect looking market leaders…
It’s worth saving on Santroe Santos for the Matrix - just in case Harry Cobden gets a tune out of him.
Hopefully, it won’t be needed though !
I originally planned to make Benson a Best bet in the 3:35 - but the more I looked a the race, the more fearful I became of Jollys Cracked it.
He is very well handicapped - and the booking of Kevin Brogan shows clear intent.
I couldn’t bring myself to swap camps completely - so I’ve covered them both with the Matrix.
There are also plenty of other potential dangers, so it’s not a race I want to go mad in…
Aintree
The 12:55 at Aintree, is another really trappy contest.
I probably like Hunters Call best - but he is vulnerable and 4/1 is too short.
There should be little between Mint Condition and Ballymoy, so at more than twice the price, the last named is worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I waited quite some time for the price of Le Breuil to drift to where it should be.
The bookmakers are incredibly quick to shorten horses in the betting - but very slow to push them back out.
At 6/1, he is a Best bet - and hopefully a few of you will achieve that.
I think there is minimal margin at 5/1 - but still a little.
In simple terms, I think he will win the race - regardless of field size and the obstacles to overcome !
If he is beaten by something, then it will most likely be Coo Star Sivola. He is worth a saver, for the Matrix.
As I said last night, I’ve no idea what will win the 2:05 - so I’m not going to offer any suggestions !
The 2:40 isn’t much easier to call - but for different reasons…
A bit like the Henry VIII chase at Sandown, I think this race will be decided by how things pan out in running.
If either Frodon or Native River get an uncontested lead, they will probably win; if they take each other on, then Santini should be able to take advantage (assuming he is sufficiently fit).
I really don’t get why Beau Bay is a 20/1+ shot in the 3:15.
He finished third in the race last year - is marginally better in the weights this time - and looks to have been targeted at it.
The only reason I can think, is because it’s a very competitive race - and there are a few in it with more ‘sexy’ profiles.
He’s certainly the main bet in the race - from a ‘value’ perspective.
However, it is also worth saving on Crievehill, Flying Angel and Might Bite, for the Matrix.
It may end up that I’ve missed the winner - but at least we’ll know we were on a good bet !
Chepstow
I did think that Yalltari had gone under the radar in the 1:57 - but that is not the case now !
He was 11/1 last night - a perfectly understandable price - and I didn’t envisage a problem putting him up this morning.
However, I was clearly not the only one who had latched on to him - and his price has been in free-fall since just before 9:00.
6/1 would be my absolute minimum price for him - and I would hope he’d end up a few points bigger than that.
He has a chance, because he is well handicapped and will love conditions - but he also has question marks over him.
For the Matrix, I think it is worth saving on Saint Xavier and Lamanvar Pippin.
The former is over-priced - whilst the latter is the most likely winner.
It’s disappointing to see St Barts a non-runner in the 2:32.
I liked him - but felt he was too short.
I would have been prepared to take him on with either Ask me Early or Thomas Macdonagh, if either was a decent price.
However, with him out of the race, they now head the market.
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