The first day of a bumper weekend - and the rain is already falling heavily…
The going descriptions for most of the venues where racing will take place, currently have the word ‘good’ in them - however, I’ll be surprised if that is still the case, when the various meetings get under-way !
Sandown and Exeter start proceedings tomorrow - and both are nice looking cards, and there are some decent races.
Only time will tell whether there will be much in the way of betting opportunities (it will all depend on the markets) - but hopefully there will be at least one or two.
Just to confirm, I will send out the ‘Suggested bets’ email after 10:00 tomorrow morning.
I’ve no idea how strong the markets will be at that point - but hopefully they’ll be able to cope !!
Sandown
12:45
The meeting opens with an interesting conditional jockeys handicap chase.
It looks a fair race - and there are 3 particularly strong candidates.
My Way sets the standard, with his last time out run in the Badger Beers chase at Wincanton.
That was a class 1 chase (this race is class 3) - and My Way looked to have it won, when going clear at the third last.
However, he didn’t get home - and ultimately faded into fourth place.
Over a similar trip - but on softer ground - he will need to be ridden with more restraint if he is going to win.
Igor is stepping up on trip from his seasonal debut over 2m4f at Sandown.
He ran well that day, until falling at the second last.
He may not have won - but he would have gone close - and it looked a decent race.
I suspect he may improve for the step up in trip - and he has the bonus of Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle.
Diable de Sivola didn’t get home on his seasonal debut - but that was over a marathon trip, in the Southern National at Fontwell.
Cutting back half a mile should suit him perfectly - and a 3lb drop in the ratings is a definite bonus.
Gary Moore loves to win races at Sandown - and it’s hard to see Diable not being right in the mix.
1:15
Gary Moore may also hold the key to this race, as he saddles two who appear to have strong chances, in the shape of Early du Lemo and Darebin.
The former hasn’t run for almost 2 years - but showed distinct promise in his one season over fences.
On his final outing, he won a handicap chase at Lingfield, racing off the same mark he runs from tomorrow.
He’s a horse who likes to get on with things and I could see him setting out to make all.
I would expect Gary Moore to have him ready for his seasonal debut - and provided that’s the case, then he’s likely to take a bit of catching.
Darebin also likes to race prominently - and so may not be done any favours by his stablemate.
He’s far more exposed than Early du Lemo - and not particularly consistent.
However, he does have a decent record at Sandown (3 win and 7 places, from 13 course runs), so I’ll not be at all surprised if he does put his best foot forward.
He’s not been in the best of form recently - but that has seen his rating plummet and from a pure handicapping perspective, he could easily win.
Rough Night has also not been in the best of form recently.
He was backed into favouritism for his seasonal debut, in a better race than tomorrows, at Aintree.
However, he finished last - the same position he had occupied, on his final start of last season (when also sent off favourite).
Clearly, someone thought him capable of much better - and the fitting of first time cheek pieces suggest connections feel the issue may be in his head.
He looked good when winning at Warwick 12 months ago - and off just 4lb higher mark tomorrow, if he can recapture that level of form, he will be hard to beat.
1:50
Novice handicap chases at this time of year, are often hot events - and that certainly looks to be the case with this race.
Funambule Sivola was impressive when winning at Wetherby last week - and looks the one to beat, under his 7lb penalty.
He was given a ratings rise of 13lb for that win - so is effectively 6lb ‘well in’ tomorrow.
He has half a mile further to cover - but I can’t see that being an issue.
And whilst I often worry about horses making a quick return, it’s something that Venetia tends to do very successfully.
Top weight, Morning Vicar, was a good winner of a similar race at Newbury last month - and a 6lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh.
A feature of his win that day, was his sound jumping - and that should be a real asset around Sandown.
Before Midnight finished third in the Newbury race and, in theory, a 6lb pull in the weights should be sufficient for him to reverse the form.
However, I’m not entirely convinced that will be the case…
Killer Clown appeared not to get home over 3 miles, last time at Exeter.
He’s dropped back in trip by half a mile tomorrow - and I think he will appreciate that.
He’s still got plenty of scope for improvement and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.
Similar comments apply to Alnadam.
He should be better for his chasing debut at Carlisle, when he finished second.
That was only his fifth race under rules - so he too could have plenty of improvement in the locker…
2:25
The feature race on the card is this grade 2 novice hurdle - but it’s hard to choose between the 5 progressive rivals…
Star Gate is the likely favourite on the back of a very impressive hurdling debut at Chepstow.
He looked really good that day - but his trainer, Evan Williams, is on a losing run of 43 - whilst Nico de Boinville looks an ‘interesting’ jockey booking (I’m not sure if I would view it as a positive or a negative !).
Similar cases can be made for Sending Love, Any News and Valleres.
All 3 have shown a fair level of form - and have the scope to improve significantly.
If the ground deteriorates, it may simply be a question of which one handles it best.
The remaining runner, Press your Luck, certainly can’t be discounted - though his trainer, Chris Gordon, tends not to be associated with classy novice hurdlers…
I suspect that Valleres may end up the ‘value’ option in the race - despite of the fact that his trainer, Alan King, has won the contest 5 times in the past 12 years.
Whilst he was beaten last time, putting a blemish on his record, which the other runners don’t have - it was still decent form, and achieved on ground that was probably too quick for him.
3:00
Pertemps qualifiers are never the easiest of puzzles to solve, as often horses run in them with a view to getting qualified for the final of the series, as opposed to winning the actual race…
I was quite keen on Portrush Ted, when he was due to make his seasonal debut in a better race than this, at Haydock last month.
However, he had to miss the race due to injury - which is an ongoing issue for the horse.
He’s incredibly fragile and has only run over hurdles 3 times in his life.
That said, he’s won 2 of those races - and would have gone very close in the other race.
He needs to be taken very seriously whenever he runs - though his trainer, Warren Greatrex, is in desperate form and that has to temper enthusiasm.
It’s a similar story with Illegal Model.
He’s only run twice over hurdles - and whilst his form is good, this race is a big ask for a horse with such limited experience.
Also, as with Portrush Ted, his trainer (this time Charlie Longsdon) is not in the best of form.
Venetia is in good form - and she saddles Farrants Way.
There may have been horses who have previously run in Pertemps qualifiers on only their second attempt over hurdles - but if there are, I can’t think of them !
That’s the case with Farrants Way, however…
It’s clearly a massive ask for such an inexperienced horse - but on the flip side, it’s very interesting that Venetia is running him at all.
It suggests that he is considered a fair bit better than his current mark of 127.
Kilconny Bridge is the early favourite - and whilst a row of ‘1’s next to her name look impressive, the wins have been in races restricted to mares and she will find it harder in open company.
The Paul Nicholls trained Storm Arising, looks more dangerous - up just 3lb, for a game win over Potters Hedger, in a reasonable race at Lingfield.
3:35
Unlike most of the races on the card, this one doesn’t appear to have attracted a particularly strong field.
Emmpressive Lady is the early favourite on the back a win in a novice hurdle at Exeter.
She won well that day - and if the form could be taken literally, she would look very well handicapped with an opening mark of 115.
That’s because she finished 4 lengths in front of the 127 rated Born in Boris, in receipt of just 6lb.
The trouble is, Born is Boris may well not have run up to form that day - and if that’s the case, then it’s hard to rate the form.
She clearly has a chance - but maybe not as good as that form line suggests…
Vegas Blue began her hurdling career with a high reputation, which was gained from 2 wins in bumpers.
However, she disappointed on her hurdling debut at Kempton last Christmas - and whilst she did win on her season debut at Huntingdon in October, she then disappointed last month, again at Kempton.
Maybe she doesn’t like Kempton - or maybe she isn’t going to be as good over hurdles as was originally hoped…
Bit on the Side’s two most recent run have been over fences.
She fared OK on both occasions, without setting the world alight.
Prior to the switch, she had run 3 fair races over hurdles.
However all of her form suggests that a mark of 120 is about right.
Whitehotchillipepper finished sixth in the mares race at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and ran an even better than that placing implies.
However, she was a big disappointment on her seasonal debut at Wetherby.
Consequently, she’s a hard one to get a handle on.
She may be up to winning a race of this nature - or she may not.
We’ll doubtless learn more tomorrow - although it will be a bit late by then !
Exeter
2:05
The Big Breakaway will be a very short favourite for this.
He was an impressive winner on his chasing debut at Cheltenham last month - and is already amongst the favourites for the RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival.
However, I’m a little surprised to see him dropped in trip by over half a mile tomorrow - and I do think that makes him vulnerable.
That said, there is only one horse in the race, with the ability to capitalise on that vulnerability…
Bold Plan was rated 4lb inferior to The Big Breakaway over hurdles - and receives 8lb from him tomorrow.
He too has only run once over fences - and that was when finishing well behind at Uttoxeter.
However, that was over the bare 2 miles - and he will appreciate the step up in trip tomorrow.
The tactics will be very simple.
The Big Breakaway will set out and try to make all - whilst Bold Plan will stalk him
Assuming no jumping errors, it will all come down to whether The Big Breakaway can break Bold Plan, up the home straight.
The betting will doubtless suggest he will - I’d be a little less confident….
2:40
Severano was a gutsy winner of a fair novice handicap chase at Sandown last time, and it’s no surprise to see him installed favourite for this.
He’s only been raised 4lb for the win - and whilst that’s hardly generous for a neck victory, the reality is that a rating of 139 probably still under-estimates him.
I don’t expect him to have any issue with the ground or trip - and he does look the one to beat.
If the ground gets very heavy, then I can see it suiting Limited Reserve.
He was a convincing winner of a grade 3 hurdle at Sandown last season, run in desperate conditions.
He jumping was poor on his chasing debut at Fakenham last month - but I would expect better tomorrow.
Dusky Lark hasn’t run for nearly 2 years - and doesn’t have a great record fresh.
However, he is now very well handicapped - and should be perfectly suited by conditions.
He ran second in a strong renewal of the corresponding race 2 years ago - and if he could replicate that form tomorrow, then off a 2lb lower mark tomorrow, he would be hard to beat.
It will all depend on how much ability remains - and a recent wind op can be read either way…
3:15
3m6f in what are likely to be gruelling conditions.
This is likely to turn into a case of survival of the fittest…
Petite Power finished a neck second in the corresponding race 12 months ago - when running off exactly the same mark.
He was noted running on at the death last time at Cheltenham - and suspect he will be spot on tomorrow.
Fergal O’Briens horses remain in very good form - and he sets a reasonable standard…
Bermeo finished quite a way ahead of him in the Cheltenham race - and even at the revised weights, should confirm the form.
However, it’s debatable whether he will be as well suited to this much more demanding test…
Dancing Shadow might go well - but it’s a bit of a lottery !
He ran a really big race on his seasonal debut, when just touched off in a particularly strong veterans chase at Chepstow.
Based on that form he would be the one to beat.
However, he was tailed off in this race a year ago, when sent off the 7/2 fav.
He’s 3lb lower tomorrow - but that wouldn’t have made a lot of difference 12 months ago !
Some Detail is an interesting runner.
He’s only 6 - and has only run once over fences previously, when unplaced at Uttoxeter.
However, his runs over hurdles suggest that he will relish an extreme test of stamina.
If his jumping holds up, I could certainly see him out running his odds.
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