The 3 day weekend should have been dominated by the two Winter festivals, run at Newbury and Fairyhouse respectively.
However, the Irish meeting failed to provide any betting opportunities, so the spotlight fell solely on Newbury…Friday
There was a really good card for the opening day of Newburys Winter carnival - and I was hopeful I might have found a few decent wagers.
I suggested 2 Best bets on the day - and they were supported by 3 additional bets for the Matrix - but alas, non managed to deliver…
San Benedito was the first of the Best bets to run - and I was quite keen on him.
He’s a horse that I’d been watching for a long time - and whilst he appeared not to have been in particularly good form, I felt he would be perfectly suited by Fridays test.
And in fairness, he travelled really strongly for most of the race.
However, he was always doing a little bit too much - and therefore had nothing left when the race got going in earnest.
He hadn’t run for a couple of months and it looked as if he was just a bit too fresh.
With the run out of his system - and a couple more pounds off his mark - I would certainly consider giving him another chance, in the right conditions.
The race was won by Clondaw Castle - which was a little frustrating.
I’d identified him as the one to beat - and should really have at least covered him in the Matrix.
A mistake on my behalf - as simple as that…
The other Best bet on the afternoon, was Dell ‘Arca.
I thought he was a particularly good bet - but he ran disappointingly.
I’ve no idea why - other than perhaps a recent busy schedule may have caught up with him.
I guess he might have struggled to beat the favourite, regardless - but he should have placed, at very least…
In addition to the two Best bets, I also suggested Zoffee and William H Bonney in the novice handicap chase, for the Matrix.
To an extent, I called this race right - however, I came to the wrong conclusion !
I could see that there was likely to be a lot of pace on - and so hedged my bets.
On one hand, I hoped that Zoffee might simply win the pace war - and prove hard to catch: but if that didn’t happen, I hoped that William H Bonney might be able to pick up the pieces…
Alas what actually happened, was that Zoffee lost out to Edituer de Gite, at the head of affairs: and whilst that one did eventually tie up, the manic pace best suited the strong travelling, Elusive Belle.
William H Bonney actually ran on well to finish third: and Zoffee also ran with credit to finish a place behind him - though neither was much good when you back win only !
The final bet of the day, was a small Matrix offering on Lisnagar Oscar, who I felt was over priced on the back of last seasons stayers hurdle.
Alas that wasn’t the case - he was priced about right and was no match for the 3 markets leaders.
My regret, was not suggesting Thyme Hill as ante-post bet for this seasons stayers hurdle. He was 12/1 pre-race - but is now the 5/1 favourite….
In the other races on the card:
Flinteur Sacre was a massive disappointment in the opener - it looked to me as if he struggled on the quick ground. Bravemansgame was an impressive winner of the novice hurdle; whilst Caribean Boy was an even more impressive winner of the novice chase.
It will be interesting to see how far both of them can go - with the latter in particular, looking a horse of real quality.
Saturday
It was another busy Saturday - despite there being little betting interest on day 1 of the Fairyhouse Winter festival.
There were still plenty of tough handicaps to tackle at Newbury - along with a couple of interesting races at Newcastle.
I ended up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus a handful of supporting Matrix bets - and what a day it turned out to be…!
I was rather keen on Cap de Nord, who was the first Best bet to run - however, I could also see a host of potential dangers…
Last season, there is a distinct possibility that I would have not put him up, because I was worried about the dangers - or maybe compromised the staking (splitting stakes with Doctor Dex).
I’m sure a few of you are still trying to get your heads round the Matrix - well I can tell you it helped massively in this particular race !
Rather than swerve it because I was fearful that something might improve past Cap de Nord, I was able to stake him most heavily - and then cover on all of the ones who I thought might be capable of spoiling the party !
And as it turned out - none of them were. And better than that - none of the other runners were, either !
Cap de Nord was settled out the back, by Jack Tudor - who showed tremendous judgement of pace.
The horse didn’t jump brilliantly - but always looked safe enough - and when he started to make ground round the home turn, my hopes began to rise.
Hope turned to optimism, jumping the second last - and whilst there was a brief moment when it looked like he might not get there, that soon passed - and he jumped the last cleanly, before shooting away on the run in.
Lovely stuff :)
And better was to follow, with the very next Best bet !
I was pretty confident about Cloth Cap - but aware that my confidence didn’t make a great deal of sense !
For a start, he hadn’t got the profile of your normal Hennessy winner - whilst it was a couple of years since he last got his head in front.
However, as with San Benedito yesterday, he’s a horse I’ve been watching for a long time - and I could see that he’d finally got his conditions.
What I didn’t foresee, was the ride that Tom Scudamore gave him !
Lit up by the first time cheek pieces, the horse jumped from fence to fence - and even the mighty Denman would have been proud of the leap he put in at the 4th last !
‘Spectacular’ doesn’t do it justice - and it showed just how much he still had left in the tank.
From that point, it was simply a question of him negotiating the final 3 fences - and he did that without a bother.
It was as impressive a victory in a big handicap chase as you will see - and a particularly pleasing one.
I did cover a couple of potential ‘dangers’ for the Matrix - but they were just insurance in case things didn’t pan out as I expected. None of them were ever really sighted…
The final race of the day provided the opportunity for a rare hatrick of winning Best bets - courtesy of The Russian Doyen.
It was clear he was going to be ridden prominently in first time cheek pieces - and when Western Miller fell at the second, it looked as if he would get the perfect tow into the race, from the front running Moonlighter.
However that one fell at the fifth and suddenly The Russian Doyen was in front.
Despite seemingly going easily - and almost trading odds on, with still half the race to go - I wasn’t convinced.
That said, I didn’t expect him to fall - which is what he did at the 8th fence.
Ah well - the hatrick will just have to wait for another day !
In addition to the races in which the Best bets ran, I also covered a couple more for the Matrix…
In the first of those at Newbury, I suggested Howling Milan and Champagne Platinum - and whilst the former struggled, the latter looked as if he was coming to win his race, approaching the final flight.
However, Flash the Steel was travelling just as strongly - and he quickened away from Champagne Platinum after the last.
It was yet another Matrix bet which traded odds on IR and lost - they’ve had all 7 of the Best bets - plus another 3 for good measure.
If their luck ever turns, the bookies will be in trouble !
Alas, it didn’t turn with their next runner - Not so Sleepy, at Newcastle.
I hoped he might be able to steal the Fighting Fifth from the front - but instead, he swerved and stuttered on the run to the first hurdle and promptly decanted Paddy Brennan !
The only consolation was that he was never going to beat the ultra impressive, Epatante…
In the days other races:
Politesse was a big disappointment in the Newbury opener. A little like Flinteur Sacre 24 hours earlier, she didn’t seem to appreciate the quick ground.
The same may well have been true for Kalooki, as he disappointed in the novice chase. That said, the winner, Next Destination, was very impressive.
I’d put up Milkwood ante-post for the Gerry Fieldan hurdle - and he showed that the bad luck isn’t currently confined to the day of the race bets !
He was badly hampered when Thyme White bizarrely unseated Harry Cobden at the second last.
Milkwood lost momentum - and about half a dozen lengths - yet finished like a train and was ultimately beaten just a couple of lengths.
It’s fair to think that he would have won a minute, given a clear run…
Sunday
A non-runner (or more accurately, the fact there were no non runners !) and a price crash scuppered the couple of betting opportunities that I hoped existed - and consequently, there was no betting action on the day.
A succinct summary, I think :)
TVB.
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