Dec 4th - Bets/Rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Sandown

12:45
Igor 4 units win 9/2
My Way 4 units win 9/4
Diable de Sivola 2 units win 8/1

3:00
Farrants Way 2 units win 10/1

3:35
Emmpressive Lady 5 units win 9/2


Exeter

2:40
Dusky Lark 2 units win 16/1

3:15
Petite Power 6 units win 7/1
Some Detail 3 units win 6/1


Best Bets

Sandown

3:35
Emmpressive Lady 0.5pt win 9/2


Exeter

3:15
Petite Power 0.5pt win 7/1

The anticipated rain materialised at both Sandown and Exeter - which is fine (as it was expected !).

The biggest issue is that it has resulted in a few NRs - and they have generally been horses which I was happy to oppose.
As a consequence, I’ve passed on a couple of races that I might otherwise have got involved with….

I've ended up with a couple of Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.

Here’s hoping for a decent start to the weekend….


Sandown

The odds are just about there, for me to deploy a half matrix (10 units) in the Sandown opener…
I think My Way is the most likely winner - but he’s no good thing and the price is plenty short enough.
If he wins, then we will get our money back.
Igor is the main hope in the race - in fact, he is a borderline best bet (I would have made him such, at 5/1).
Diable de Sivola is the other one I want to cover - and he has certainly drifted to an acceptable price.
I’m more than happy having those 3 on side - if one of the others wins, then so be it…

Non runners have messed up the 1:15 - so I’m giving it a miss.
I wanted to be with Darebin, when everything was running and he was close to 10/1.
However he is now half that price - and I don’t think he really wants very soft ground.
Early du Lemo could well drift to an acceptable price - and at 6/1+ I would be interested in him…

I was never likely to get involved with the 1:50.
The race will most likely be won by either Funamble Sivola or Morning Vicar - but the betting tells you that.
There are a few others of interest, with Before Midnight and Killer Clown heading the list.
A race to watch, however…

Similarly, there is too much guesswork, to consider involvement in the 2:25.
Star Gate could be a very good horse, which makes him hard to oppose.
I liked Valleres - but he’s not worth a risk, at 7/2….

Aside from the 2 outsiders (Dream Berry and Point of Principal), I could see anything winning the 3:00…
The market has already been all over the place - and I could see that continuing through to the off (because there is no stand out contender).
At the 10:00 prices, Farrants Way was worth a couple of Matrix units.
He’s hard to quantify - but he could be up to the job - and 10/1 was fair compensation to find out…

I was kind of resigned to leaving Emmpressive Lady alone in the finale, because she was too short last night at 3/1.
However, she has drifted to 9/2 this morning, and I think she is worth a small risk at that price.
Her form can be read 2 ways: one of which gives her a great chance !
If she doesn’t win, I’ve no idea what will - there is no stand out alternative.


Exeter

If there odds had been there, I would have taken a chance on Bold Plan upsetting The Big Breakaway in the 2:05.
I’m just not sure about the fav, down in trip - though heavy ground will make it more of a stamina test.
I’m also not sure that Bold Plan will relish the heavy ground - whilst the form of his stable, is also a worry.
It was quite a close call - but at 7/2, I’m prepared to just watch Bold Plan.

I think Dusky Lark is worth a small risk for the Matrix in the 2:40.
Make no mistake, it is a risk ! However, if he happens to return in top form, after his long absence, then he will take a lot of beating (in fact, he is likely to win).
Severano is the obvious fly in the ointment - but at 7/4, he’s plenty short enough.

I think Petit Power has been targeted at the Devon National (3:15).
He won’t have many decent pots left in him - and he ran second in the corresponding race, 12 months ago.
He’s been gradually brought to the boil this season - and his handicap mark has been dropped a little.
I can almost hear Fergal plotting it out !
He is potentially vulnerable to an improver - and Some Detail could be such a horse.
He was 20/1 yesterday - and is now 6/1, suggesting someone (other than me !) really fancies him.
It’s a poor price - but I have to cover him for the Matrix…