Sunday, 22 November 2020

Review of the day - Nov 21st

I realise that it’s won’t be easy to repair the damage done to the P&L over the first 2 weekends of the season - but I’ve no intention of forcing anything. 

If I have to claw it back, at a rate of 2pts a weekend, then so be it - we’ve still got plenty of time left !

It was nice to get off the mark for the season last Sunday - and it was just as nice to follow up this afternoon, via Bristol de Mai.

I really did fancy him - but I was guessing on the ground - and my confidence was always going to be a lot greater, on soft ground.

I was therefore delighted to see that Haydock received more rain than expected, this morning - and by race time, the ground was heavy.

It’s not that Bristol needs heavy - he’s kind of indifferent - but it slows down his rivals, and in a race, that’s important !

Certainty it slowed down Lostintranslation - and turning out of the back straight, it was clear he was beaten.
Clan des Obeaux wasn’t though - but Bristol is a brave horse, who takes a bit of passing.

Clan tried his best - but Bristol fended him off.

If the ground hadn’t been as soft, would the result have been the same ?
Pre-race, I thought so - post race, I’m not so sure…

Anyway, it didn’t matter - for once, conditions moved in our favour…

Things hadn’t moved in our favour earlier in the afternoon, when Umbrigado was hampered by a faller at the second last.
He still had every chance approaching the last, but a poor jump handed the initiative to War Lord and Umbrigado couldn’t reel him in….

What was even more annoying, was that I’d also covered the race in the Matrix - and in addition to the second, managed to get the third, fourth and fifth - from 4 goes !

Now that’s what you call almost deadly analysis !

The 2 other Best bets on the day, didn’t fare as well…

Salty Boy was the first to run - but he was no match for Demachine.
I did think that Demachine might be something special - but it wasn’t easy to find strong bets this morning, and I felt Salty Boy might be a bit of ‘value’.

I also sided with a couple of other relative long shots in the race - but it was dominated by the favourites…

It was a similar story with Black Corton.
Hand on heart, I didn’t think he would be good enough to win - but there was a chance he might steal the race - and his price seemed to represent a bit of value.

As It turned out he just wasn’t quick enough - and his jumping was put under so much pressure, he eventually cracked and decanted Bryony…

The only other race of interest, from a betting perspective, was the first chase at Haydock.
I fancied a few in it and covered it via the Matrix.

Thankfully, I managed to hit on the winner, via Snow Leopardess.
She was just about my main fancy in the race- but I didn’t think there was much value in a price of 7/1.
Maybe unsurprisingly, she returned at 9/2…

In the other races at Haydock, Master Tommytuckers jumping held up in the graduation chase - and that enabled him to outclass his rivals.
It’s no exaggeration to say that he has the ability to be a grade 1 chaser - but when put under pressure, I fear that his jumping will always let him down (he wasn’t put under pressure this afternoon !).
Main Fact got the better of Third Wind in the staying handicap hurdle - which could have been very annoying, if I’d put up Third Wind (and I nearly did !).
Whilst in the finale, Perfect Candidate rolled back the years - and destroyed his rivals.
He’ll be 14 in just over a months time - but the way he powered home, you wouldn’t have known it.

Over at Ascot, Robin Gold won the mares handicap under an ice cool ride from Bridget Andrews. It really was an impressive piece of pace judgement - and something which I suspect few could have pulled off (or indeed, would have dared to try !).
Laurina was a massive disappointment in the Coral hurdle - enabling Song for Someone to get the better of Call it Lord; whilst First Flow won the 2 mile chase, despite unsuitable ground - and a few jumping errors. He is clearly a very talented animal…

TVB.          

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