The first day of Newburys 2 day ‘Winter festival kicks off what is going to be a busy (and long !) weekend…
It’s unusual to have top class racing on a Friday - other than at Cheltenham.
However, Newbury delivers - and the main race of the day, the Long Distance hurdle (3:00) would have graced last years Cheltenham festival…
The supporting card isn’t quite as strong: there are 3 competitive handicaps - along with 3 less competitive novice races..!
The ground at Newbury is described as ‘Good’ - and with no significant rain forecast for the next couple of days, I would expect it to remain that way.
Just a quick reminder that I will issue any bets for tomorrows racing after 10:00 in the morning…
Newbury
12:15
The meeting opens with what would be, a relatively unremarkable novice hurdle, if it weren’t for the presence of hurdling debutante, Flinteur Sacre…
He’s a full brother to the brilliant Sprinter Sacre - and even if he has just half of his sibling’s talent, then he’s likely to take high rank in this seasons novice hurdle division.
He raced twice in bumpers last season: Finishing runner up on the first occasion at Newbury - and then going one better at Kempton.
Both races showed that he does have at least a fair level of ability - and provided he takes to hurdles, then he’s likely to be way too good for tomorrows opposition.
If he does happen to come up short, then My Drogo looks the one most likely to take advantage.
He too will be making his hurdling debut, having shown a decent level of ability when finishing runner up in a hot bumper at the Cheltenham October meeting.
An average novice hurdle should be his for the taking - but getting the better of Flinteur Sacre should be more of an ask !
12:45
This is the first of 3 tricky handicaps on the card - and it looks just about the toughest to crack.
In part, that is because it’s a novice race, so we don’t have as much info to work with…
The first thing that strikes me about the race, is that there could be some serious pace.
Editeur de Guye, Zoffee and Scardua all like to front run - so 2 of them are likely to end up disappointed, whilst the other one may find himself going too fast !
Hardly ideal for any of them - and without that issue, I could definitely have given a chance to the first 2 named…
Anemoi has won his 2 races this season, on the back of an 18 month absence.
The first of them was over hurdles at Wetherby - and he then followed that up by just getting the better of Financier at Chepstow.
I felt that the winning margin didn’t flatter him that day - so he should really uphold the form on a pound worse terms.
Having said that, Financier was conceding race fitness - on what was only his fourth run over fences, so he probably has greater scope for improvement.
In truth, it’s probably a case of you pay your money and make your choice - but both of them appear to hold live chances…
Elusive Belle was disappointing in a decent mares novice chase at Bangor, on her seasonal debut.
Better was expect that day - and I suspect she is indeed capable of leaving that run behind.
That said, this is a tough race in which to be bouncing back to form…
It’s also a tough race to be making your chasing debut in - particularly when you are 9 !
That’s what William H Bonney is doing - and whilst he appears to have bitten off more than he can chew, that may not necessarily be the case.
Clearly he is risky - but he is also potentially well handicapped, will have his ground - and should be fit after 2 runs over hurdles.
I certainly wouldn’t want to let him go off unsupported, at too big a price…
1:15
I’ve really not got a strong view on this novice hurdle…
Bravemansgame, Bothwell Bridge and Real Stone, have all looked good winning lesser novice hurdles and could easily step up and take this race.
Real Stone looks like being the outsider of the 3 - so is potentially the best bet.
That said, a more interesting proposition, could be Diocletian.
He is rated 99 on the flat - and if he can translate that ability to hurdles, he should be able to achieve a rating in the mid 140s, which would give him every chance in tomorrows race.
He failed to settle on his hurdling debut at Taunton - and that will need to be resolved.
It’s slightly surprising that Page Fuller retains the ride - and that does make me wonder how seriously connections are taking this race.
However, if they are in it to win - and provided the horse consents to settle, then I could see him outrunning his likely dismissive odds.
1:50
There’s a disappointing turn out for this grade 2 novice chase - with just the 3 runners.
In fairness, they are all talented animals - though only Fiddlerontheroof, really has pretensions to being top class.
He was a grade 1 winning hurdler last season - and was sent off at just 6/1 for the supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
However, he came up short in that race - and again on his chasing debut, when beaten by If the Cap Fits.
He did manage to get off the mark over fences, in his most recent race at Exeter - but only scrambled home by a head and may well need to to show improved form, if he is to be successful again tomorrow.
Caribean Boy looks his most dangerous rival.
He won a novice handicap chase on his second outing in the UK - and whilst you wouldn’t expect that form to be good enough to win a race of this nature, it was a fair contest - and he still retains plenty of scope for improvement.
Getaway Trump is the final runner in the field - and he shouldn’t be good enough to win a race of this stature.
He’s run 6 times over fences and has a rating of 144.
That looks about right - and one of the other 2 should really be able to surpass that…
2:25
Oldgrangewood got up in the shadow of the post, to win the corresponding race 12 months ago.
He followed that up by winning at Cheltenham on New years Day - and then running fourth at the festival.
There was promise in his seasonal debut run at Aintree - but the fact remains, he is now rated 12lb higher than 12 months ago - and as a 9 year old, is unlikely to be improving.
Based on the Aintree run, he shouldn’t beat Clondaw Castle.
He finished second in that race - 5 lengths ahead of Oldgrangewood - and is only 2lbs worse off.
Both horses were making their seasonal debut - so neither held a fitness advantage.
Clondaw Castle is also the younger horse - so should have greater scope for improvement.
A rating of 151 is probably fair - and he sets the standard for tomorrows race.
That said, Cepage isn’t far behind.
He won a Cheltenham handicap on his penultimate outing - and races from a mark just 1lb higher tomorrow.
The worry with him is that 2m4f on quick ground may not be sufficient test (he either wants further - or the ground to be softer).
Sully Doc AA finally came good at Ascot last time - but a 10lb rise in the handicap, means that he now faces a much stiffer task.
That said, I’m sure he has the ability to cope with his new rating - and as things having finally dropped into place, it’s quite feasible that he could kick on.
San Benedito hasn’t won for almost 2 years - but that last win came over tomorrows course and distance - and off the same rating he runs from tomorrow.
He finished fourth to Oldgrangewood, 12 months ago - and whilst he was beaten 17 lengths, he will be 17lb better off.
From a handicapping perspective, he definitely has a chance.
Defi Sacre is interesting off bottom weight - though the fitting of first time cheek pieces is not something I like to see for a horse stepping up in trip.
Both Musical Salve and Whatwrongwithyou, can be given chances, if they are sufficiently fit to do themselves justice on their seasonal debuts.
The market may well advise on that score…
3:00
This is arguably the race of the season, so far….
It’s amazing that reigning stayers hurdle champion, Lisnagar Oscar can be backed at 14/1 - and on the back of a satisfactory reappearance run at Wetherby.
He probably was a little flattered to win at Cheltenham, in March - but I’m not sure I’d want to be laying him at that price - just in case !
The 2019 stayers hurdle winner, Paisley Park, has been installed a relatively short priced favourite - and whilst that’s understandable, he would make minimal appeal at current odds.
He’ll need to bounce back to his very best, if he is to win tomorrow - and though he might well do that, I couldn’t back him at him at 9/4.
McFabulous is next in the betting - and he’s a completely different beast.
He was a decent novice hurdler last season - if not top class - but he is evidently held in particularly high regard by Paul Nichols.
In fairness, Nichols does know what a good stayer looks like, so its not too surprising that his price is short.
He was also impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Chepstow - but tomorrow represents a massive step up in class.
It’s also quite a step up for Thyme Hill - though at least he was completing in grade 1 novice events last season (unlike McFabulous).
He’s a horse that I really like - however I would have 2 reservations for tomorrow.
Firstly, it will be his seasonal debut - and secondly, the ground is likely to be as quick as he wants.
If he runs with any sort of promise, then I’ll be keen to get him onside for this seasons Stayers hurdle.
Quick ground might also be an issue for Summerville boy - though I suspect he’ll just about get away with it.
He’s likely to try and make all - and whilst I’ll be a little surprised if he manages, I’ll be less surprised if he is placed.
The final one of interest, is Honest Vic.
He’s looked a much improved performer in recent outings - and whilst his is still over a stone shy of Paisley Park on official ratings, it’s impossible to know when his improvement will level out.
I’ll be a bit surprised if he is good enough to win tomorrow - but it’s not completely beyond the realms of possibility.
3:35
Hill Sixteen has been installed a short priced favourite for this, having dotted up over fences, on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las, 9 days ago.
That was his first run for Nigel Twiston Davies and he seemed to show improved form, as he routed his field by 46 lenghts !
Needless to say, the handicapper took a dim view, with his chase rating raised to 136 - and his hurdle rating to 133.
As a consequence, he is thrown in tomorrow off a mark of 123 (which is 3lb lower than the mark he won off !).
However, 2m4f over fences, in heavy ground at Ffos Las is a completely different test to 3 miles over hurdles on good ground at Newbury.
He may be able to deal with it - but then again…
Nevilles Cross looks an obvious danger.
He was progressive last season - and was sent off favourite for a good race at Cheltenham’s October meeting, on his seasonal debut.
He disappointed a little that day, only finishing sixth - but with the run under his belt could easily bounce back tomorrow.
Dell ‘Arca has been a revelation this season.
He’ll be 12 in just over a months time - but has looked as good as ever, in recording back to back successes, at Aintree and Newbury.
His most recent win was in a decent race - and he won it with something to spare.
The handicapper has handed him a 6lb rise for his troubles - and Fergus Gillard has lost 2lb of his claim in the interim (meaning he is effectively 8lb higher).
On the flip side, he’s won from a mark 11lb higher in the past - and clearly has an affinity for Newbury (having won 3 times at the course, from 7 runs)
Most of the other runners look out of form - though The Cashel Man is of some interest.
He may still be a bit too high in the handicap - but he’s another who clearly likes Newbury - and it would be no surprise to see him run well, assuming he is allowed to stride on.
No comments:
Post a Comment